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Have you ever noticed how much Greenspan looks like Zoidberg? (Greenspan's not as smart though)
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation last night:
- a $8.25billion, weekend repurchase with $8.25billion in T-backed collateral .
Plenty of rocket fuel, but yet again no big burst. To me, it looks like Greenstain and his merry band of central wankers are having to flood the market with short-term liquidity just to keep the market from falling. Even with the "good news" spin about the mock-elections in Iraq, there was not a decent rally. That is interesting.
Major US Indices
So far, so good. As I said in yesterday's little e-mail Rantlet, the media is awash with propaganda about the mock elections in Iraq, just as I thought it would be.
Teleprompters everywhere were full of garbage that was read as if it was true... number of Iraqis who voted (8 million? CRAP... not unless the Shia and Kurdish turnout was 100%), plus those images of people queuing for blocks to get their chance to cast a ballot... in Kurdish areas. The autonomous Kurdish areas have been the only three safe provinces in Iraq since the PUK took over security. But the media weren't told that the queues were only in the Kurdish areas, so they just read the teleprompter as if Iraq was suddenly a haven for voters.
They also didn't mention that people were offered additional food rations if they voted. I doubt that it would have been old-fashioned electoral pork - even Americans aren't that culturally-awkward.
Anyway - doesn't matter: it was predictable, and the little Rantlet mentioned the best strategy was to buy any pullbacks (and there were three).
After getting through 10500 on a TICK-burst at lunchtime (which also saw a five-minute period during which 27,000 S&P contracts were purchased... now why would you try and be such a heavy buyer at lunchtime??), the Dow softened considerably, pulling back to permit second-entries before bouncing towards 10500 again (it never got through 10500 after lunch).
By the close, it had posted a rise of 62.74 points (0.6%), closing out the day at 10489.94 points; the broader S&P500 advanced 9.91 points (0.85%), at 1181.27. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite gained 26.58 points (1.31%), to close at 2062.41, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 20.17 points (1.35%), to end at 1519.63 points.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.68 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was less chunky than it has been of late, with 1.83 billion shares being shifted around like so many porn images.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| DJIA | 10489.94 | 62.74 | 0.6% |
| S&P500 | 1181.27 | 9.91 | 0.85% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2062.41 | 26.58 | 1.31% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1519.63 | 20.17 | 1.35% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.68bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.83bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.64%; Citigroup should be a screaming short (or candidate for put purchases) above $50, but it's also the most manipulated stock in the big-caps, so it's one that has to be traded with care: far better to get hold of some AAPL puts, as I mentioned in the e-mail sent out today..
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.14 (0.78%) to $18.04;
- Ebay (EBAY) +$0.40 (0.49%) to $81.50;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.67 (1.38%) to $49.05;
- Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.03 (0.06%) to $52.40;
- IBM Corp (IBM) +$0.53 (0.57%) to $93.42;
- General Electric (GE) +$0.38 (1.06%) to $36.13;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.21 (0.94%) to $22.45;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.53 (0.83%) to $64.55; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.18 (0.27%) to $65.29.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2593 to 774 for a single-day A/D reading of 1819; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 2251 to 856
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1321.41 to 347.6 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 729.92 to 220.4 million shares.
156 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 6 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 99 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 24 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 2593 | 2251 |
| Decliners | 774 | 856 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1321.41 | 729.92 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 347.6 | 220.4 |
| New Highs | 156 | 99 |
| New Lows | 6 | 24 |
Market Sentiment
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Equity Call Volume (000) | 2370.44 | -77.04 | -3.15% |
| Equity Put Volume (000) | 1567.25 | -325.06 | -17.18% |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 12.82 | -0.42 | -3.17% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 18.43 | -0.15 | -0.81% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.66 | -0.11 | -14.49% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 92.14 | 3.67 | 4.15% |
Bond Markets
Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 1.9 basis points to 4.586%. The short end continues to price in the 25bps that the Fed will announce tomorrow.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.427 | 0.02 | 0.62% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.264 | 0.021 | 0.65% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 3.694 | 0 | 0.08% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.132 | -0.01 | -0.24% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.586 | -0.019 | -0.41% |
The Banks Index rose 1.33 points (1.33%), to 101.08; within the index,
- Mellon Financial (MEL) +$0.98 (3.45%) to $29.35;
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) +$1.57 (2.37%) to $67.82;
- State Street (STT) +$1.03 (2.35%) to $44.81;
- Keycorp (KEY) +$0.72 (2.2%) to $33.42; and
- M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$2.12 (2.11%) to $102.36.
The Broker-dealer Index added 3.51 points (2.39%), closing at 150.64; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.48 (3.86%) to $12.93;
- Raymond James (RJF) +$1.02 (3.38%) to $31.17;
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$1.22 (3.23%) to $39.00;
- A G Edwards (AGE) +$1.29 (3.12%) to $42.66; and
- Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$1.59 (2.92%) to $55.96.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 4.5 points (1.13%), ending the day at 403.96
- Altera Corp (ALTR) +$0.71 (3.84%) to $19.20;
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) +$0.54 (6.58%) to $8.75;
- ST Microelectronics (STM) +$0.37 (2.26%) to $16.73;
- Marvell Tech (MRVL) +$0.72 (2.2%) to $33.45; and
- National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.35 (2.11%) to $16.93.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold fell by $2 (0.47%) to close at $424.3 per ounce; at one stage during the session, the front-month dropped beneath $420 - to $419.30... not quite down to the $415 level that I called for last week (last Thursday, to be precise... in the "Gold" section of this post), but at least the direction was right.
Gold Bugs Index slid 0.42 points (0.21%), at 201.57
- Golden Star Resources (GSS) -$0.09 (2.39%) to $3.68;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.09 (1.35%) to $6.58;
- Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.18 (1.13%) to $15.76;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.21 (1.12%) to $18.49; and
- Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.03 (1.1%) to $2.70.
Silver fell by $0.06 (0.81%) to close at $6.75 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.18 points (0.2%), to 91.4 points.
- Barrick Gold (ABX) -$0.32 (1.44%) to $21.86;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.09 (1.35%) to $6.58;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.21 (1.12%) to $18.49; and
- Newmont Mining (NEM) -$0.41 (0.98%) to $41.59.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 424.3 | -2 | -0.47% |
| Silver | 6.745 | -0.055 | -0.81% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 91.4 | -0.18 | -0.2% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 201.57 | -0.42 | -0.21% |
Oil Market
Oil was firmer, rising by $0.99 per barrel, closing at $48.11 per barrel. That was after the "nuffie dump" - which I forecast in passing in the short "Flash" e-mail sent out yesterday (which also called for entering long index futures positions on any intraday oversold conditions). Check out the chart, for evidence of the sort of idiot that you're up against when you trade commodities...
Crude Oil 5-minute Intraday chart
Click on Image to Enlarge
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 9.92 points (1.35%), to end the session at 745.51
- Amerada Hess (AHC) +$2.10 (2.48%) to $86.65;
- Sunoco (SUN) +$1.82 (2.12%) to $87.49; and
- ConocoPhillips (COP) +$1.80 (1.98%) to $92.79.
- Smith International (SII) +$1.79 (3.12%) to $59.20;
- Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.19 (2.41%) to $8.07; and
- Weatherford International (WFT) +$0.96 (1.8%) to $54.27.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 283.75 | -0.25 | -0.09% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 48.11 | 0.99 | 2.1% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 745.51 | 9.92 | 1.35% |
| Oil Service Index | 129.58 | 1.99 | 1.56% |
Currency Markets
The recent comments by a variety of luminaries at Davos has done little to help the US dollar.
On the basis that the market should punish profligate expansionist governments run by retards (and with idiots running the bureaucracy), the US dollar should be trading at about 50 Euro cents. Anybody who looks at de-hedonicised income and output numbers will notice that the "US as economic superpower" story is as hollow as the "US as military hyperpower" story: in other words, anybody can look the goods so long as they are permitted to put every thing they buy on credit.
However currencies don't trade solely on relative regional economic fundamentals - they are as prone to propaganda, sentiment and outright manipulation as any other market. I've been calling for a sharp snap upwards in the US dollar - to annihilate some nuffnuffs who came to the short-USD party late. However the USD is having inordinate trouble generating any upward traction whatsoever.
That doesn't countermand a bounce - that's still the most obvious outcome (contrarian-wise... although the bearish USD "chatter" in Journalist-Land has quieted recently).
I will have a good trawl through the CoT data for EC (Euro futures) and DX (US Dollar Index futures) today to see where the nuffnuffs are positioned. That said, you can't get CoT data for the plethora of FX bucket-shops that are now springing up all over the planet, permitting nuffies to trade with 500:1 leverage (the world needs more paupers, obviously). As such analysis of CoT data is necessarily only a partial view.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 83.65 | 0.11 | 0.13% |
| Euro | 1.3031 | -0.0006 | -0.05% |
| Yen | 103.67 | 0.42 | 0.41% |
| Sterling | 1.8825 | -0.0056 | -0.3% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7753 | 0.0005 | 0.06% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.1888 | 0.0026 | 0.22% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8057 | -0.0014 | -0.17% |
European Indices
| Country | Index | Last | % | % |
| France | CAC 40 | 3913.69 | 43.34 | 1.12% |
| Germany | DAX-30 | 4254.85 | 53.04 | 1.26% |
| UK | FTSE 100 | 4852.3 | 19.5 | 0.4% |
| Italy | MIBTel | 24091 | 263 | 1.1% |
European Index Internals
| CAC-40 | DAX-30 | FTSE-100 | |
| Advancers | 37 | 26 | 69 |
| Decliners | 2 | 4 | 28 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 163.4 | 80 | 775.6 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 2.2 | 16.9 | 312.4 |
CAC-40 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Veolia Environ | 27.42 | 0.75 | 2.81% | 1533344 |
| ST Microelectronics | 12.8 | 0.32 | 2.56% | 6173728 |
| Suez | 20.64 | 0.45 | 2.23% | 4812179 |
| Axa | 18.62 | 0.39 | 2.14% | 7473211 |
| Publicis Groupe | 24.15 | 0.50 | 2.11% | 1217716 |
CAC-40 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Vivendi Universal | 24.27 | 0.28 | 1.17% | 4603167 |
| L.V.M.H. | 53.3 | -0.05 | -0.09% | 2057948 |
| Lafarge | 79.1 | 0.05 | 0.06% | 853916 |
| TotalFinaElf | 164.5 | 0.2 | 0.12% | 2232580 |
FTSE Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| Amvescap | 3.48 | 0.19 | 5.86% | 19237994 |
| Standard Chart Bank | 9.75 | 0.28 | 2.96% | 18278724 |
| United Utilities A | 4.55 | 0.11 | 2.48% | 4578053 |
| British Airways | 2.6575 | 0.06 | 2.21% | 22143036 |
| United Utilities | 6.405 | 0.14 | 2.15% | 6760674 |
FTSE Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| Yell Group | 4.575 | -0.05 | -0.97% | 4274503 |
| Xstrata | 9.25 | 0.04 | 0.43% | 2564174 |
| Cairn Energy | 11.12 | -0.26 | -2.28% | 883160 |
| Land Secs Group | 13.77 | -0.29 | -2.06% | 3684933 |
| British Land Co | 8.61 | -0.13 | -1.43% | 3874522 |
DAX-30 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Continental | 53.25 | 1.87 | 3.64% | 1416714 |
| Lufthansa | 10.72 | 0.37 | 3.57% | 7439776 |
| RWE | 44.23 | 1.36 | 3.17% | 4123538 |
| Deutsche Post | 17.87 | 0.47 | 2.7% | 3494435 |
| Volkswagen | 36.81 | 0.95 | 2.65% | 3002131 |
DAX-30 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Bayer | 24.39 | -0.55 | -2.21% | 10232886 |
| Siemens | 60.84 | -0.56 | -0.91% | 5381310 |
| Linde | 48.68 | -0.15 | -0.31% | 514966 |
| Schering | 51.9 | -0.08 | -0.15% | 51.98 |
| Adidas Salomon | 114.85 | 0.45 | 0.39% | 51.38 |
Tonight's Pivots (US Futures Market)
| Dow | S&P500 | Nasdaq | Bonds | |
| R2 | 10534 | 1186 | 1534.67 | 115 7/32 |
| R1 | 10508 | 1183.9 | 1529.33 | 115 2/32 |
| Pivot | 10480 | 1180.6 | 1522.67 | 114 23/32 |
| S1 | 10454 | 1178.5 | 1517.33 | 114 18/32 |
| S2 | 10426 | 1175.2 | 1510.67 | 114 7/32 |
