OzRant: So Bleh That I Fell Asleep...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I didn't really fall asleep; to tell the truth I went to the dump with a trailer-ful of crap. That was far more exciting than watching the markets, anyhow (even Japan was tedious, and Hongkers got most of its move done at the open, and just wiggled around in a 50-point range for the whoe day thus far).

The dump was far more interesting - plus, I popped my thumb out, which gave me the opportunity to test my recent mantra ("This doesn't hurt as much as you think") which I had previously only applied to taking the plug out of the sink after shaving. It works... things don't hurt anywhere near as much as you first think they do.

I'm blathering now... on to the markets...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 17.10 points (0.42%), finishing at 4100.70 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4114.10 - 15 minutes after the open - and its low was 4083.6 (at the open). The close was right in the mid-range, which is what you would expect when there's no genuine commitment by buyers or sellers. The whole market is behaving like tech stock investors from 1999; momentum is the order of the day.

Total volume traded on the ASX was a paltry 880 million units, 27.4% below its 10-day average. Given that the 10-day average itself is pretty subdued due to residual short-week influences, it shows just how lame the turnover was.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 14.70 points (0.36%), finishing at 4109.90 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 1.00 points (0.05%), finishing at 2211.30 points. Within the index members, there were 10 that rose, and 8 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 59.76 while volume in the losers totalled 29.19m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.64 (1.44%) to $45.10 on volume of 2.72m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.25 (1.41%) to $17.93 on volume of 13.68m shares;
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.09 (1.28%) to $7.10 on volume of 5.95m shares;
• Alumina (AWC), +$0.06 (1.03%) to $5.89 on volume of 5.22m shares; and
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.15 (1.02%) to $14.80 on volume of 2.3m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.63 (2.52%) to $24.37 on volume of 2.48m shares;
• Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), -$0.13 (1.36%) to $9.42 on volume of 5.37m shares;
• Woolworths (WOW), -$0.12 (0.74%) to $16.10 on volume of 1.49m shares;
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.09 (0.43%) to $20.61 on volume of 5.13m shares; and
• National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.12 (0.42%) to $28.41 on volume of 4.79m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 29.70 points (1.29%), finishing at 2325.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Sino Gold (SGX), +$0.20 (11.76%) to $1.90 on volume of 34,000 shares;
• Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.12 (8.96%) to $1.46 on volume of 1.01m shares;
• Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.54 (7.76%) to $7.50 on volume of 1.23m shares;
• Consolidated Minerals (CSM), +$0.24 (6.86%) to $3.74 on volume of 1.38m shares; and
• Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.17 (6.09%) to $2.96 on volume of 5.74m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Silex Systems (SLX), -$0.07 (6.73%) to $0.97 on volume of 306,000 shares;
• Genetic Technologies (GTG), -$0.02 (5%) to $0.38 on volume of 407,000 shares; and
• Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.10 (4.88%) to $1.95 on volume of 479,000 shares;
• Metabolic Pharmaceuticals (MBP), -$0.03 (4.35%) to $0.66 on volume of 469,000 shares; and
• Bendigo Mining (BDG), -$0.05 (4.07%) to $1.18 on volume of 942,000 shares.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4100.7	17.1	0.42%	537.43m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2211.3	1	0.05%	97.18m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4053.2	8.4	0.21%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3340.6	9.3	0.28%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4109.9	14.7	0.36%	429.25m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4110.9	15.4	0.38%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3990.4	27.7	0.7%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2325.4	29.7	1.29%	152.4m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

[]

Market Breadth
	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	251	125	108	10	544
Declines	106	44	37	8	331
Advancing Volume	324.06m	277.48m	89.23m	59.76	512.93
Declining Volume	115.84m	103.31m	19.79m	29.19	217.74

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Information Technology which gained 1.57% to 375.60 points. The sector was helped by

• IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.15 (3.68%) to $4.23 on volume of 181,000 shares;
• MYOB (MYO), +$0.03 (2.88%) to $1.07 on volume of 315,000 shares;
• Computershare (CPU), +$0.10 (1.81%) to $5.63 on volume of 1.4m shares;
• ERG (ERG), +$0.01 (1.69%) to $0.30 on volume of 4.95m shares; and
• Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.00 (0%) to $3.00 on volume of 1.02m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Materials which gained 1.15% to 7137.40 points. The sector leaders were -

• Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.54 (7.76%) to $7.50 on volume of 1.23m shares;
• Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.17 (6.09%) to $2.96 on volume of 5.74m shares;
• Centennial Coal Company (CEY), +$0.23 (5.07%) to $4.77 on volume of 1.19m shares;
• Gunns (GNS), +$0.20 (5%) to $4.20 on volume of 805,000 shares; and
• Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.08 (4.17%) to $2.00 on volume of 2.55m shares.

The bronze today went to Industrials which gained 0.70% to 5009.70 points. The sector was led by

• Downer EDI (DOW), +$0.22 (4.38%) to $5.24 on volume of 404,000 shares;
• Corporate Express Australia (CXP), +$0.23 (3.74%) to $6.38 on volume of 238,000 shares;
• GWA International (GWT), +$0.09 (3.32%) to $2.80 on volume of 343,000 shares;
• Toll Holdings (TOL), +$0.30 (2.19%) to $14.00 on volume of 926,000 shares; and
• Prime Infrastructure Group (PIF), +$0.03 (2.14%) to $1.43 on volume of 1.22m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Consumer Staples which lost 0.78% to 5546.10 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), -$0.13 (1.36%) to $9.42 on volume of 5.37m shares;
• Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL), -$0.10 (1.15%) to $8.60 on volume of 1.42m shares; and
• AWB (AWB), -$0.04 (0.86%) to $4.62 on volume of 229,000 shares;
• Woolworths (WOW), -$0.12 (0.74%) to $16.10 on volume of 1.49m shares; and
• Ridley Corporation (RIC), -$0.01 (0.67%) to $1.49 on volume of 255,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Energy which lost 0.74% to 8153.70 points. It's a little unfair on the sector, though - it was pulled down by Woodside's weight. Only two stocks in the 10-stock sector index fell, but the one that fell thew most is also one that dwarfs the rest of the sector. The unweighted average price move forthe sector was actually positive 0.74%, with 6 of the 10 stocks rising by more than a percent (and TAP rose by over 3%). However when a secto declines, we look at the losers... they were -

• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.63 (2.52%) to $24.37 on volume of 2.48m shares; and
• Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.03 (1.67%) to $1.77 on volume of 1.2m shares.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XIJ	Information Technology	375.6	5.8	1.57%	8.38m
XMJ	Materials	7137.4	80.9	1.15%	81.69m
XNJ	Industrials	5009.7	34.7	0.7%	49.04m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2283.8	14.7	0.65%	39.79m
XHJ	Healthcare	4854.3	27.7	0.57%	10.32m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1805.9	7.1	0.39%	24.99m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4867	9.7	0.2%	52.23m
XUJ	Utilities	4708.7	7.3	0.16%	5.22m
XFJ	Financials	4804.5	6.4	0.13%	172.21m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1748.9	-1.6	-0.09%	125.58m
XEJ	Energy	8153.7	-60.9	-0.74%	20.54m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5546.1	-43.5	-0.78%	24.5m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
RTM	Reefton Mining	0.12	0.02	14.29%	42.36m
PLA	Platinum Australia	0.17	0.01	6.45%	30.93m
TLS	Telstra Corporation.	5.11	0.05	0.99%	18.37m
MOF	Macquarie Office Trust	1.27	0.01	0.79%	17.32m
BHP	BHP Billiton	17.93	0.25	1.41%	13.68m
IPG	Investa Property Group	2.08	-0.04	-1.89%	12.5m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ABI	Ambri	0.16	0.02	14.81%	656032
SGX	Sino Gold	1.9	0.2	11.76%	33572
BGF	Ballarat Goldfields	0.21	0.02	10.81%	7.13m
CGX	Central Asia Gold	0.73	0.07	10.61%	413692
UNW	Unwired Group	0.55	0.05	10%	735665

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
CAG	Cape Range Wireless	0.046	-0.005	-9.8%	3.9m
EPT	Epitan	0.63	-0.05	-7.35%	627626
SLX	Silex Systems	0.97	-0.07	-6.73%	306401
PBT	Prana Biotechnology	0.44	-0.03	-6.38%	176080
AGI	Ainsworth Game Technology	0.67	-0.04	-5.63%	905152

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 103.07 points (0.89%) to 11668.95 points at the time of writing; it had traded in a band pretty much demarcated by 11600 below and 11650 above, until a spurt at close to 3 p.m. tokyo time took it "properly" above the 11650 level.

The Kiwi Market declined 0.35 points (-0.01%), although at one stage it was up almost 30 points, and the afternoon sessio nwas pretty uninspiring stuff (like their cricket team). A total of 28 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 11million units. Decliners numbered 13, and total volume traded in losers was 25.9million shares; there was far more commitment to getting rid of losers than there was tp buying stocks that were rising. Individual stocks that were a but suck included...

• Cavalier Corporation (CAV), -NZ$0.15 (3.8%) to NZ$3.80 on volume of 27,000 shares;
• Tower Limited (TWR), -NZ$0.04 (2.21%) to NZ$1.77 on volume of 1.94m shares;
• Fisher & Paykel A (FPA), -NZ$0.06 (1.98%) to NZ$2.97 on volume of 618,000 shares;
• Restaurant Brands (RBD), -NZ$0.02 (1.63%) to NZ$1.21 on volume of 113,000 shares; and
• Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), -NZ$0.03 (1.5%) to NZ$1.97 on volume of 3.79m shares.

Someone obviously moved that pot plant back into position - the boost to the market's Feng Shui went into overdrive (If Women's Weekly can claim that Feng Shui can make housewives happy, I can claim that it makes the market move). Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 101.20 points (0.75%). Within the Hang Seng, 24 index components rose, while 6 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 195.8million units, and total volume traded in losers was 41.6million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

• Lenovo Group (0992), +HK$0.15 (5.88%) to HK$2.70 on volume of 78.27m shares;
• PCCW (0008), +HK$0.20 (4.85%) to HK$4.33 on volume of 16.82m shares;
• Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +HK$0.55 (2.56%) to HK$22.05 on volume of 1.21m shares;
• China Unicom (0762), +HK$0.15 (2.5%) to HK$6.15 on volume of 5.41m shares;
• Wheelock (0020), +HK$0.25 (2.3%) to HK$11.10 on volume of 5.32m shares; and
• Denway Motors (0203), +HK$0.05 (1.87%) to HK$2.73 on volume of 16.8m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3039.078	-0.35	-0.01%	43.73m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11668.95	103.07	0.89%	73240
Korea	KOSPI	965.68	10.23	1.07%	427573
Singapore	Straits Times	2145.03	21.87	1.03%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13526.95	101.2	0.75%	241.69m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	877.78	0.03	0%	0

USRant: S&P, Fitch Drop the Ball AGAIN; Tape Painted...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.

• a $8.25billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.

Now that's more like the juice the market required.

 

Major US Indices

Big repo; oversold market; end of quarter window-dressing. Not a big surprise that the market rallied.

Here, pig pig pig pigpigpigpig piggie! Sooooo-EEEE! Come git your face on - it's time for mutual fund statements.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 135.23 points (1.3%), closing out the day at 10540.93 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10544.18, and the session low (10404.81) was set at the open.

Within the blue-chip index, 29 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being General Motors (GM, +3.11% to $29.50) and Procter & Gamble (PG, +2.89% to $53.36), which accounted for 18 Dow points between them. The only loser in the Dow was American International Group (AIG, -1.79% to $57.16) which contributed -7 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 374m shares to 24.7m.

Now AIG is an interesting kettle of fish; last night it confessed to "mistakes" that "may have inflated" the company's position by about 2% (i.e., about $1.7billion).

Now these "errors" weren't things you would normally consider an "error"... you know, typos, spelling mistakes, or forgetting to carry the one when doing longhand addition. No. They were the deliberate misclassification of transactions with BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY. Those transactions were deliberately misclassified to COOK THE BOOKS.

"Error", my arse. Someone should go to frigging JAIL for this. And the broght spark who tried to Blair-ise the announcement (FRAUD becoming ERROR) should be sent to Iraq without body armour (so should Blair - but only because he would enjoy Gitmo too much... the anal rape and all those other non-Geneva-Convention-breaking "interrogation techniques").

As usual, the gutless wonders at the ratings agencies dropped the ball, reacting AFTER AIG's announcement. (Do they ever act before the shit hits the fan?)

S&P cut AIG's AAA rating; Fitch said it may re-rate AIG too. Why does anybody even listen to these dickheads? Ratings are supposed to be forward looking.

Next thing S&P will tell us that they've downgraded Enron... They ought to change the definition of each rating to read something like "Securities rated C by Standard & Poors will reflect the default characteristics of a B-rated security, half a day after the B-rated security declares bankruptcy."

The big ratings houses have missed every big-ticket fan-splat in the last ten years. They should just shut up shop and quit embarrassing themselves. (Still, it bodes well for my upcoming decision to find a high-yield ETF to buy puts over... of which more later this week).

The broader S&P500 added 16.05 points (1.38%), ending the day at 1181.41. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite added 31.79 points (1.61%), to close at 2005.67, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 27.4 points (1.87%), to end at 1491.74 points.

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.08 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was only chunky, with 1.73 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

I'm not sure what you would call the shade of lipstick that got slathered onto the piggie; vermillion? (Oh, I crack myself up...)

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10540.93	135.23	1.3%
S&P500	1181.41	16.05	1.38%
Nasdaq Composite	2005.67	31.79	1.61%
Nasdaq100	1491.74	27.4	1.87%
NYSE Volume	2.08bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.73bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 1.51%

• General Electric (GE) +$0.67 (1.89%) to $36.20;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.57 (1.29%) to $44.92;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.07 (0.14%) to $50.84;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.08 (0.09%) to $90.68;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.34 (1.47%) to $23.49;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.28 (1.58%) to $18.03;
• eBay (EBAY) +$1.59 (4.4%) to $37.69;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.45 (0.82%) to $55.15; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$1.20 (1.91%) to $63.90.

Market Breadth & Internals

Even the breadth looks like tape-painting...

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2516 to 776 for an utterly insane single-day A/D reading of +1740; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 2129 to 950. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -275.9 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -245.3.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1720.5 to 322.7 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1383.9 to 214.7 million shares.

26 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 52 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 32 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 90 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	2516	2129
Decliners	776	950
Advancing Volume (m)	1720.51	1383.92
Declining Volume (m)	322.7	214.73
New Highs	26	32
New Lows	52	90

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	13.66	-0.83	-5.73%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.37	-0.62	-3.45%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.75	-0.06	-7.41%
10-day PCR	0.74	0	0.43%
SPX-VIX Ratio	86.5	6.06	7.54%

Bond Market Analysis

GDP was weaker than expected (actual 3.8%; consensus 4%), but the deflator was worse than expecterd (actual 2.3%, expected 2.1%). The bond market rose consistently through the session, after the usual "fakeout" immediately after the data. Neither of yesterday's 2 "big move" scenarios played out: growth was slower than expected (good for bonds) but the second half of a "bounce catalyst" (lower than expected GDP inflation) didn't happen. So the data was "mixed"which means that the underlying short-term trend (a bounce) should have been the "default". It doesn't matter, since there was no actionable "non-advice".

Bonds rose from the 5-year to the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 4.5 basis points to 4.807%. Five-year yields are looking set to test 4.25% again - this time as support (resistance for prices). Since my "below 110 by June" target for the long bond has already been hit, I haven't really looked hard at upside targets... I might do that his weekend.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.762	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.82	0	0%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.257	-0.029	-0.68%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.558	-0.033	-0.72%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.807	-0.045	-0.93%

The Banks Index added 1.27 points (1.33%), ending the day at 96.44; within the index,

• North Fork Bancorp (NFB) +$0.67 (2.46%) to $27.87;
• M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$2.24 (2.26%) to $101.44;
• State Street (STT) +$0.90 (2.11%) to $43.51;
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) +$1.42 (2.11%) to $68.66; and
• Keycorp (KEY) +$0.65 (2.06%) to $32.25.

The Broker-dealer Index added 2.37 points (1.66%), at 144.85; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Charles Schwab (SCH) +$0.34 (3.36%) to $10.47;
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$1.67 (3.12%) to $55.28;
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.87 (2.36%) to $37.66;
• E*Trade (ET) +$0.25 (2.13%) to $11.99; and
• Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.84 (1.88%) to $99.84.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index advanced 9.5 points (2.32%), closing at 419.66

• Altera (ALTR) +$0.56 (2.91%) to $19.81;
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.79 (5.12%) to $16.21;
• Teradyne (TER) +$0.58 (4.07%) to $14.82;
• Micron Technology (MU) +$0.36 (3.56%) to $10.48; and
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) +$1.40 (3.1%) to $46.59.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold was unchanged at $426 per ounce. It's increasingly risky to hold long-side exposure to Gold, and in all likelihood $400 is not going to hold (at least, in the June futures). There is emerging technical evidence of an impending break; too many newcomers to the market are on the same side of the boat; and intermarket considerations (the US Dollar's likely contrarian rise). All three are all working against Gold.

Gold Bugs Index advanced 3.25 points (1.66%), ending the day at 199.15

• Randgold Resources (GOLD) +$0.44 (3.8%) to $12.02;
• Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.55 (3.46%) to $16.46;
• Golden Star (GSS) +$0.09 (3.41%) to $2.73;
• Glamis Gold (GLG) +$0.42 (2.77%) to $15.60; and
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.98 (2.59%) to $38.84.

Silver rose $0.15 (2.15%) to close at $7.14 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 1.31 points (1.43%), to end the session at 93.23 points.

• Meridian Gold (MDG) +$0.55 (3.46%) to $16.46;
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.98 (2.59%) to $38.84;
• Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.32 (2.27%) to $14.39; and
• Newmont Mining (NEM) +$0.93 (2.24%) to $42.41.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	426.00	0.00	0%
Silver	7.14	0.15	2.15%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	93.23	1.31	1.43%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	199.15	3.25	1.66%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding $0.18 per barrel, closing at $54.07 per barrel. The oil inventory data relased showed a large (5.7m barrel) increase in inventories, but distillate inventories fell quite shrply; that's part of the reason that while Crude fell, the rest of the energy complex rose.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) gained 10.53 points (1.27%), to 840.16

• Unocal (UCL) +$1.62 (2.72%) to $61.28;
• Sunoco (SUN) +$1.75 (1.77%) to $100.49; and
• ConocoPhillips (COP) +$1.80 (1.74%) to $105.43.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index added 1.31 points (0.98%), closing at 135.11

• Transocean (RIG) +$1.12 (2.35%) to $48.86;
• Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.20 (2.21%) to $9.27; and
• Weatherford International (WFT) +$0.90 (1.64%) to $55.85.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	311.02	2.09	0.68%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	54.07	-0.18	-0.33%
Heating Oil	1.6045	0.05	2.92%
Natural Gas	7.47	0.15	2.01%
Unleaded Gas	1.598	0.03	1.59%
AMEX Oil Index	840.16	10.53	1.27%
Oil Service Index	135.11	1.31	0.98%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	84.38	0.03	0.04%
Euro	1.2922	-0.0001	-0.01%
Yen	107.48	-0.03	-0.03%
Sterling	1.8791	0.0056	0.3%
Australian Dollar	0.7705	0.0001	0.01%
Swiss Franc	1.199	-0.0031	-0.26%
Canadian Dollar	0.822	-0.0032	-0.39%

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OzRant: Hold Still, Piggie... It's Max Factor Time...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Oink Oink...

Say, you're a mighty purdy little oinker...

Or maybe it's Maybelline.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 8.30 points (-0.20%), finishing at 4083.60 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4095.00 - half an hour after the open - and its low was 4051.5, set at almost precisely 1 p.m., before a low-volume afternoon waft helped the index get back some respectability.

The index had lost over 200 points from its recent swing high in just six sessions, and to me the bounce looked distinctly like quarter-end window dressing. I think the Oz market may have set a pretty significant top back around the 4250 region. If "selling the next rally" works, then that test of 3800 that I've been expecting might just be a beginning of something uglier (since it's taken longer to happen).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.15 billion units, 2.5% above its 10-day average. That said, the 10-day average is somewhat subdued as a result of the shortened week last week - not because of the fewer number of days, silly... volume is lower on shortened weeks because of fewer bums on seats on the weekdays. that in turn results from extra days off for a lot of the parasitic charlatans who make their car repayments from clipping the ticket on other people's turnover.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by just 0.40 points (-0.01%), finishing at 4095.20 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 2.60 points (0.12%), finishing at 2210.30 points. Within the index members, there were 9 that rose, and 11 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 68.58m while volume in the losers totalled 52.61m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were banks and punters' clubs (insurers)-

• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.14 (2.04%) to $7.01 on volume of 5.92m shares;
• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.36 (1.92%) to $19.13 on volume of 7.24m shares;
• Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), +$0.43 (1.25%) to $34.94 on volume of 4.33m shares;
• Woolworths (WOW), +$0.15 (0.93%) to $16.22 on volume of 2.05m shares; and
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.20 (0.81%) to $25.00 on volume of 1.64m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns (note the resources bias):

• Alumina (AWC), -$0.12 (2.02%) to $5.83 on volume of 5.36m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.28 (1.56%) to $17.68 on volume of 22.25m shares;
• Coles Myer (CML), -$0.10 (1.04%) to $9.55 on volume of 3.36m shares;
• News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.17 (0.77%) to $21.97 on volume of 2.92m shares; and
• Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.31 (0.69%) to $44.46 on volume of 4.26m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index fell by 37.70 points (-1.62%), finishing at 2295.70 points.

What does this tell you? That the money driving the rally in the afternoon was only interested in large-caps. That in turn means it's interested in dressing the windows (a.k.a. "putting lipstick on the pig") rather than finding unexploited value. It was probably overseas dough, since a lot of domestic stocks are simply WAY too small to make it into the admissible universe for many offshore managers.

The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Kagara Zinc (KZL), +$0.07 (5.56%) to $1.33 on volume of 822,000 shares;
• Collection House (CLH), +$0.07 (5.19%) to $1.42 on volume of 141,000 shares;
• Adelaide Brighton (ABC), +$0.07 (4.32%) to $1.69 on volume of 593,000 shares;
• Adelaide Bank (ADB), +$0.40 (3.88%) to $10.70 on volume of 161,000 shares; and
• Consolidated Minerals (CSM), +$0.13 (3.86%) to $3.50 on volume of 1.74m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Perilya (PEM), -$0.11 (10.58%) to $0.93 on volume of 880,000 shares;
• Western Areas (WSA), -$0.18 (9.84%) to $1.65 on volume of 639,000 shares; and
• Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.14 (9.46%) to $1.34 on volume of 556,000 shares;
• Antares Energy (AZZ), -$0.05 (8.77%) to $0.52 on volume of 603,000 shares; and
• Ventracor (VCR), -$0.08 (7.55%) to $0.98 on volume of 2.47m shares.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4083.6	-8.3	-0.2%	671.84m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2210.3	2.6	0.12%	121.19m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4044.8	4.7	0.12%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3331.3	3.4	0.1%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4095.2	-0.4	-0.01%	535.9m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4095.5	-2.7	-0.07%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3962.7	0.8	0.02%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2295.7	-37.7	-1.62%	188.22m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	100	66	30	9	215
Declines	281	116	133	11	782
Advancing Volume	277.21m	260.62m	42.24m	68.58	284.88
Declining Volume	314.5m	239.91m	121.64m	52.61	722.93

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 0.85% to 8214.60 points. The sector was helped by

• Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.48 (3.27%) to $15.15 on volume of 756,000 shares;
• Santos (STO), +$0.19 (2.14%) to $9.05 on volume of 4.46m shares;
• Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.14 (2.11%) to $6.78 on volume of 661,000 shares;
• Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.07 (1%) to $7.10 on volume of 1.61m shares; and
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.20 (0.81%) to $25.00 on volume of 1.64m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.74% to 4857.30 points. The sector leaders were -

• Adelaide Bank (ADB), +$0.40 (3.88%) to $10.70 on volume of 161,000 shares;
• Insurance Australia Group (IAG), +$0.17 (2.79%) to $6.26 on volume of 5.36m shares;
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.14 (2.04%) to $7.01 on volume of 5.92m shares;
• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.36 (1.92%) to $19.13 on volume of 7.24m shares; and
• Promina Group (PMN), +$0.09 (1.89%) to $4.84 on volume of 6.3m shares.

The bronze today went to Financials which gained 0.64% to 4798.10 points. The sector was led by

• Adelaide Bank (ADB), +$0.40 (3.88%) to $10.70 on volume of 161,000 shares;
• Insurance Australia Group (IAG), +$0.17 (2.79%) to $6.26 on volume of 5.36m shares;
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.14 (2.04%) to $7.01 on volume of 5.92m shares;
• ING Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.04 (1.99%) to $2.05 on volume of 3.31m shares; and
• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.36 (1.92%) to $19.13 on volume of 7.24m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Materials which lost 1.23% to 7056.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Excel Coal (EXL), -$0.54 (7.2%) to $6.96 on volume of 1.3m shares;
• Zinifex (ZFX), -$0.21 (7%) to $2.79 on volume of 10.05m shares; and
• Great Southern Plantations (GTP), -$0.20 (5.06%) to $3.75 on volume of 2.2m shares;
• Minara Resources (MRE), -$0.09 (4.48%) to $1.92 on volume of 2.76m shares; and
• Iluka Resources (ILU), -$0.24 (4.21%) to $5.46 on volume of 1.92m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.60% to 2269.10 points. The sector was pulled down by

• G.U.D. Holdings (GUD), -$0.30 (4.32%) to $6.65 on volume of 395,000 shares;
• Miller's Retail (MRL), -$0.04 (4.12%) to $0.93 on volume of 565,000 shares; and
• Unitab (UTB), -$0.56 (4%) to $13.44 on volume of 409,000 shares;
• JB Hi-Fi (JBH), -$0.12 (3.13%) to $3.71 on volume of 681,000 shares; and
• Fleetwood Corporation (FWD), -$0.25 (3.01%) to $8.05 on volume of 203,000 shares.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	8214.6	69.2	0.85%	29.32m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4857.3	35.6	0.74%	63.06m
XFJ	Financials	4798.1	30.5	0.64%	192.62m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1798.8	9.1	0.51%	32.05m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1750.5	5.2	0.3%	135.97m
XIJ	Information Technology	369.8	0.4	0.11%	11.07m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5589.6	-6.1	-0.11%	30.88m
XNJ	Industrials	4975	-10.5	-0.21%	59.41m
XHJ	Healthcare	4826.6	-12.4	-0.26%	14.15m
XUJ	Utilities	4701.4	-17.4	-0.37%	6.65m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2269.1	-13.7	-0.6%	46.99m
XMJ	Materials	7056.5	-88	-1.23%	126.58m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra Corporation	5.06	0.04	0.8%	28.87m
BHP	BHP Billiton	17.68	-0.28	-1.56%	22.25m
RTM	Reefton Mining	0.11	-0.02	-16%	21.35m
MOF	Macquarie Office Trust	1.26	0.01	0.8%	18.9m
MGX	Mount Gibson Iron	0.78	-0.02	-2.5%	15.3m
GPT	General Property Trust	3.52	-0.01	-0.28%	12.83m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BOC	Bougainville Copper	0.88	0.1	12.82%	1.29m
KZL	Kagara Zinc	1.33	0.07	5.56%	822068
CLH	Collection House	1.42	0.07	5.19%	141444
ABC	Adelaide Brighton	1.69	0.07	4.32%	592711
ADB	Adelaide Bank	10.7	0.4	3.88%	160506

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PEM	Perilya	0.93	-0.11	-10.58%	880049
AGI	Ainsworth Game Technology	0.71	-0.08	-10.13%	1.06m
WSA	Western Areas	1.65	-0.18	-9.84%	638698
ERA	Energy Resources Of Australia	9.9	-1.08	-9.84%	64809
CMQ	Chemeq	1.34	-0.14	-9.46%	555871

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 recovered from a triple-digit loss to be trading down 33.94 points (-0.29%) at 11565.88 points, midway through the afternoon after an early test of support 11500 (which, funnily enough, came about an hour after a test of upside resistance at 11600 just after the open . (Note to Japan watchers - I hope to have a fuller discussion of Japanese stocks reasonably soon; at the very least, a turnover breakdown by sector, plus some indication of the major movers.)

The Kiwi Market declined 16.15 points (-0.53%). A total of 14 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 4.3million units. Decliners numbered 31, and total volume traded in losers was 25.3million shares. Individual stocks that were a but suck included...

• Skellmax Industries (SKX), -NZ$0.05 (4%) to NZ$1.20 on volume of 145,000 shares;
• Trustpower Limited (TPW), -NZ$0.15 (2.88%) to NZ$5.05 on volume of 20,000 shares;
• Telstra Corporation (TLS), -NZ$0.16 (2.78%) to NZ$5.60 on volume of 333,000 shares;
• Feltex Carpets (FTX), -NZ$0.03 (2.01%) to NZ$1.46 on volume of 167,000 shares; and
• APN News & Media (APN), -NZ$0.10 (1.83%) to NZ$5.35 on volume of 10,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 9.47 points (0.07%), and was the only regional bourse to post a gain (thus far; it's not closed yet). The index had a similar intraday trajectory to Japan's Nikkei, with an early surge giving way to a fairly harsh drop after the first half-hour. Then, a bounce back towards the mid-range.

Within the Hang Seng, 11 index components rose, while 14 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 41.7million units, and total volume traded in losers was 75.6million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

• Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +HK$0.35 (1.68%) to HK$21.20 on volume of 1.77m shares;
• Johnson Electronics H (0179), +HK$0.10 (1.44%) to HK$7.05 on volume of 3.76m shares;
• China Merchant Holdings (0144), +HK$0.15 (0.98%) to HK$15.40 on volume of 3.77m shares;
• Cheung Kong (0001), +HK$0.50 (0.73%) to HK$68.75 on volume of 3.98m shares;
• Esprit Holdings (0330), +HK$0.25 (0.48%) to HK$52.25 on volume of 2.74m shares; and
• HSBC Holdings (0005), +HK$0.50 (0.41%) to HK$123.00 on volume of 8.43m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3039.432	-16.15	-0.53%	32.13m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11565.88	-33.94	-0.29%	94301
Korea	KOSPI	955.45	-3.51	-0.37%	442964
Singapore	Straits Times	2126.6	-1.11	-0.05%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13421.35	9.47	0.07%	171.6m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	878.4	-3.47	-0.39%	0

USRant: Three Cheers for the New Low...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Blogger has been worse-than-useless for the last two hours; it's almost a waste of time trying to get things prepared in a timely fashion, then to have everything held up for hours because of someone else's incompetence (today's USRant was ready for publication at 7:52 a.m. AEST). In other words, it's almost time to shift the entire shebang to my own hosting setup. At least then, any holdups will be my own fault.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

• a $5.75billion, overnight repurchase with $1.802billion in T-backed collateral ; and
• a $3billion, 3-day repurchase with $1.05billion in T-backed collateral .

Yet again, the overwhelming preponderance of repurchase dollars went to the Agency-backed markets, although the mortgage-backed market also got a total of over $3.5bill, which is large for that market.

There is clearly a dislocation in the mortgage and agency markets that nobody is yet aware of; anyone who watched the energy pricing markets during he period when Kenneth Lay was constantly on the phone to then-Treasury-Sec John Snow, will now spot the crisis-in-the-making. As yet, nobody smells the blood in the water (because there are only about 20 genuinely independent people on the planet who bother looking at repurchase data each day)... but that will change. anyone with exposure to mortgage backed securities is going to get massacred (and they're getting hurt already).

Major US Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 79.95 points (0.76%), closing out the day at 10405.7 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10520.84 at about 10:45 a.m., and fell as low as 10396.24 during the session. The low was set 6 minutes before the close, and only a deliberate effort enabled the 9 point bump needed to generate a close above 10400.

Within the blue-chip index, only 6 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Hewlett Packard (HPQ, up an insane +10.06% to $21.78) and American International Group (AIG, +2.07% to $58.20), which accounted for 23 Dow points between them. HPQ's rise was solely due to the appointment of a new CEO to replace that hopeless trout Fiorina. So it's all schmiles und sunschine for the newcomer - who the hell the market gives a flying rat's ass, I will never know. It just means a different bank account fo the unconscionable golden parachute that this dill will get whether he wins, loses or draws.

Losers in the Dow numbered 24 and were led by Caterpillar (CAT, -4.69% to $89.80) and Home Depot (HD, -2.33% to $37.69), with these two stocks contributing -39 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by332.1m shares to 110.3m.

The broader S&P500 lost 8.92 points (0.76%), ending the day at 1165.36; the front-month S&P futures made a new low for the year - just as I said it would during the rally above 1200. The cash index also posted a new low for the year at 1163.69 , a hair below the 1163.75 low (and close) of January 24th. In contrast, the Dow's low today of 10396.24 is more than 3/4 of a percent above its year-to-date low (also set on January 24th) of 10317.10 points.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite lost 18.64 points (0.94%), to close at 1973.88, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 losing 8.37 points (0.57%), to end at 1464.34 points.

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.2 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was barely chunky, with 1.83 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10405.7	-79.95	-0.76%
S&P500	1165.36	-8.92	-0.76%
Nasdaq Composite	1973.88	-18.64	-0.94%
Nasdaq100	1464.34	-8.37	-0.57%
NYSE Volume	2.2bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.83bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.53%

• General Electric (GE) -$0.44 (1.22%) to $35.53;
• Citigroup (C) -$0.42 (0.94%) to $44.35;
• Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.22 (0.43%) to $50.77;
• I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.44 (0.48%) to $90.60;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.15 (0.64%) to $23.15;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.14 (0.78%) to $17.75;
• eBay (EBAY) +$0.19 (0.53%) to $36.10;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.18 (0.33%) to $54.70; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.30 (0.48%) to $62.70.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining issues beat out advancers by 2235 to 1062, for a single-day A/D reading of -1173; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 2272 to 837. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to -718.5 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to -558.0.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1633.2 to 541.2 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1365.2 to 421.8 million shares.

25 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 90 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 44 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 132 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1062	837
Decliners	2235	2272
Advancing Volume (m)	541.23	421.8
Declining Volume (m)	1633.19	1365.17
New Highs	25	44
New Lows	90	132

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	14.49	0.74	5.38%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.99	0.25	1.41%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.81	0.25	44.64%
10-day PCR	0.73	0.02	2.65%
SPX-VIX Ratio	80.4	-4.98	-5.83%

Bond Market Analysis

The bounce that I forecast last week continued, but it is pretty anaemic. The long bond futures got back above 110 by the close, though - and with GDP out tomorrow there's a good chance that any disappointment (relative to expectations) will see bonds get some serious upwards momentum. Consensus is guessing 4% (annualised) GDP growth, and a GDP deflator in the 2.1% range. If growth is lower and the deflator comes in under 2%, bonds will rocket. If growth is faster and the deflator comes in at over 2.3%, bonds will plummet.

Today, bonds rose right along the curve. The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shed 2.6 basis points to 4.852%, and both the 10-year and the 5-year yield held above what will now turn into support for yields (resistance for prices). 2year botes are getting perilously close to 4% yield, too. That level, when breached, will adversely impact the short end of the mortgage spectrum (the 2-5year ARMs).

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.772	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.82	-0.04	-1.04%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.286	-0.037	-0.86%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.591	-0.033	-0.71%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.852	-0.026	-0.53%

The Banks Index slid 0.54 points (0.56%), closing at 95.17; within the index,

• MBNA Corp (KRB) -$0.36 (1.47%) to $24.17;
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) -$0.65 (0.96%) to $67.24;
• Citigroup (C) -$0.42 (0.94%) to $44.35;
• Comerica (CMA) -$0.50 (0.92%) to $53.75; and
• Bank Of America (BAC) -$0.40 (0.9%) to $43.89.

The Broker-dealer Index shed 2.26 points (1.56%), to end the session at 142.48; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• E*Trade (ET) -$0.43 (3.53%) to $11.74;
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) -$1.87 (3.37%) to $53.61;
• Raymond James (RJF) -$0.63 (2.03%) to $30.39;
• Legg Mason (LM) -$1.27 (1.63%) to $76.74; and
• A G Edwards (AGE) -$0.58 (1.34%) to $42.69.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index declined 5.34 points (1.29%), at 410.16

• Teradyne (TER) -$0.47 (3.2%) to $14.24;
• Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) -$0.20 (2.37%) to $8.25;
• Infineon Tech (IFX) -$0.20 (2.09%) to $9.36;
• Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) -$0.75 (2%) to $36.83; and
• Maxim Integrated (MXIM) -$0.74 (1.8%) to $40.46.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $0.30 (0.07%) to close at $426 per ounce. It's really in no-man's land at the moment; both bulls and bears are sitting in their trenches waiting for some inbred syphilitic wanker to blow the whistle and send them "over the top". It's my view that any ground gained will be similar to the Allies at the Somme... a bloody interim defeat for the little guy. I've said repeatedly that I can't see any decent upwards move in Gold prices while the USD is rallying... without that, any bull action is just gold-bug hope.

Gold Bugs Index lost 1.49 points (0.75%), ending the day at 195.9

• Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.10 (3.53%) to $2.73;
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$0.77 (1.99%) to $37.86;
• Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.18 (1.53%) to $11.58;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.12 (1.52%) to $7.76; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.14 (1.21%) to $11.47.

Silver rose $0.08 (1.19%) to close at $6.99 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.67 points (0.72%), to end the session at 91.92 points.

• Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$0.77 (1.99%) to $37.86;
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.54 (1.56%) to $34.17;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.12 (1.52%) to $7.76; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.14 (1.21%) to $11.47.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	426.00	0.30	0.07%
Silver	6.99	0.08	1.19%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	91.92	-0.67	-0.72%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	195.9	-1.49	-0.75%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.52 per barrel, closing at $54.25 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) slid another 7.39 points (0.88%), at 829.63

• Sunoco (SUN) -$2.32 (2.3%) to $98.74;
• Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$1.22 (1.56%) to $76.76; and
• ConocoPhillips (COP) -$1.62 (1.54%) to $103.63.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index declined 3.38 points (2.46%), ending the day at 133.8

• Rowan Companies (RDC) -$1.02 (3.46%) to $28.50;
• Schlumberger (SLB) -$2.30 (3.25%) to $68.50; and
• Nabors Industries (NBR) -$1.87 (3.19%) to $56.75.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	308.93	1.57	0.51%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	54.25	0.52	0.97%
Heating Oil	1.559	0.02	1.3%
Natural Gas	7.323	0.3	4.33%
Unleaded Gas	1.573	0	0.19%
AMEX Oil Index	829.63	-7.39	-0.88%
Oil Service Index	133.8	-3.38	-2.46%

Currency Markets

It's unlikely that the USD bounce is finished with quite yet - on the "anyone who is on the same side of the market as journalists always get absolutely killed" hypothesis alone. When you have a gander at the Commitments of Traders data, you notice that a lot of small (non-reportable) traders are long against the USD; add that to the newbies in the "spot" forex market (many of which are bucket shops - which is fine, so long as you're aware of it going in) and you end up with a load of thinly-capitalised USD shorts. A fine recipe for an ongoing bloodbath.

(I've said before though... since the USD was better than 100 on the USDX... the USD is going back to the levels it was at during the "Japanese Tiger" period; 85 yen or even lower - but it's not going to get there while nuffnuffs are short USD).

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	84.35	-0.19	-0.22%
Euro	1.2923	0.0045	0.35%
Yen	107.51	0.16	0.15%
Sterling	1.8735	0.008	0.43%
Australian Dollar	0.7704	0.0029	0.38%
Swiss Franc	1.2021	-0.003	-0.25%
Canadian Dollar	0.8252	0.0036	0.44%

---

OzRant: Another Drop...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The 4-day death-cult festival is finally over... now we can get back to some healthy capitalism (apart, of course, from the fact that every enterprise - from the biggest listed stock to the local footy club - is infested with a layer of parasitic bullshit-artists whose entire existence depends on non-competitive behaviour)...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 39.70 points (-0.96%), finishing at 4091.90 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4144.20 - 20 minutes after the open - and fell to an intraday low of 4086.4 with half an hour remaining in the session.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 40.90 points (-0.99%), finishing at 4095.60 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 22.90 points (-1.03%), finishing at 2207.70 points. Within the index members, there was just a single ticker - Woodside - that rose, and 18 losers, with Foster's managing to end the fray with an honourable draw. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to a paltry 1.42m while volume in the losers totalled 91.82m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.50 (2.06%) to $24.80 on volume of 1.42m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.17 (2.41%) to $6.87 on volume of 8.85m shares;
• Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.10 (1.95%) to $5.02 on volume of 22.97m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.29 (1.59%) to $17.96 on volume of 13.68m shares;
• Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.66 (1.45%) to $44.77 on volume of 3.11m shares; and
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.27 (1.29%) to $20.59 on volume of 5.24m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 26.60 points (-1.13%), finishing at 2333.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.04 (9.09%) to $0.48 on volume of 309,000 shares;
• Citect Corporation (CTL), +$0.05 (4.76%) to $1.10 on volume of 245,000 shares;
• Housewares International (HWI), +$0.09 (4.57%) to $2.06 on volume of 87,000 shares;
• Giants Reef Mining (GTM), +$0.00 (3.23%) to $0.06 on volume of 2.73m shares; and
• Burns, Philp & Company (BPC), +$0.03 (3%) to $1.03 on volume of 6.68m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• GRD (GRD), -$0.25 (11.11%) to $2.00 on volume of 130,000 shares;
• Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.002 (8.7%) to $0.021 on volume of 16.18m shares; and
• Sino Gold (SGX), -$0.15 (7.69%) to $1.80 on volume of 41,000 shares;
• Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.10 (6.33%) to $1.48 on volume of 424,000 shares; and
• Kimberley Diamond Company. (KIM), -$0.07 (6.25%) to $1.05 on volume of 1.04m shares.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4091.9	-39.7	-0.96%	560.51m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2207.7	-22.9	-1.03%	96.48m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4040.1	-41.1	-1.01%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3327.9	-33.2	-0.99%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4095.6	-40.9	-0.99%	425.63m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4098.2	-41.4	-1%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3961.9	-35.1	-0.88%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2333.4	-26.6	-1.13%	147.64m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	79	35	30	1	276
Declines	294	135	128	18	678
Advancing Volume	81.79m	74.16m	25.09m	1.42	219.15
Declining Volume	352.43m	273.07m	103.17m	91.82	611.27

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The only sector that posted a gain for the day was Energy which gained 0.32% to 8145.40 points - although on an unweighted average basis the stocks in the index fell an average of 0.94%, and 7 of the stocks in the index fell while just 4 rose. The sector was helped by the fact that Woodside rose; had WPL joined the decliners, there would not have been a single sector that rose.

• Oil Search (OSH), +$0.07 (2.99%) to $2.41 on volume of 6.61m shares;
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.50 (2.06%) to $24.80 on volume of 1.42m shares;
• Santos (STO), +$0.13 (1.49%) to $8.86 on volume of 4.07m shares; and
• Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.02 (0.99%) to $2.04 on volume of 906,000 shares.

There was no other sector that rose - the next-best-performed sector was Consumer Staples which lost -0.23% to 5595.70 points, only a hair better than the third sector - Utilities - which lost -0.25% to 4718.80 points.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 1.89% to 369.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Computershare (CPU), -$0.17 (3.02%) to $5.46 on volume of 1.83m shares;
• MYOB (MYO), -$0.03 (2.78%) to $1.05 on volume of 115,000 shares;
• Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.03 (2.48%) to $1.18 on volume of 217,000 shares;
• ERG (ERG), -$0.01 (1.56%) to $0.32 on volume of 1.86m shares; and
• IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.04 (0.96%) to $4.12 on volume of 23,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was the two-stock Telecommunications "sector" which lost 1.71% to 1789.70 points - in other words, Telstra fell. As it happens, so did Telecom New Zealand...

• Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.10 (1.95%) to $5.02 on volume of 22.97m shares; and
• Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.02 (0.35%) to $5.69 on volume of 2.45m shares.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	8145.4	26.2	0.32%	21.55m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5595.7	-13	-0.23%	37.47m
XUJ	Utilities	4718.8	-11.6	-0.25%	5.46m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1745.3	-4.4	-0.25%	89.39m
XNJ	Industrials	4985.5	-25.9	-0.52%	42.64m
XFJ	Financials	4767.6	-45.4	-0.94%	144.59m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2282.8	-22.8	-0.99%	29.76m
XHJ	Healthcare	4839	-49.1	-1%	17.51m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4821.7	-55.6	-1.14%	60.1m
XMJ	Materials	7144.5	-120.4	-1.66%	97.79m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1789.7	-31.1	-1.71%	25.43m
XIJ	Information Technology	369.4	-7.1	-1.89%	5.24m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
RTM	Reefton Mining	0.13	-0.03	-16.67%	24.41m
TLS	Telstra Corporation.	5.02	-0.1	-1.95%	22.97m
SGT	Singapore Telecommunications.	2.05	0	0%	17.76m
ADY	Admiralty Resources.	0.2	0.02	8.33%	16.61m
LHG	Lihir Gold	1.06	0	0%	15.33m
BHP	BHP Billiton	17.96	-0.29	-1.59%	13.68m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
OTT	Open Telecommunications	0.41	0.08	22.73%	127014
MXL	MXL	0.13	0.02	13.64%	4.75m
NAL	Norwood Abbey	0.48	0.04	9.09%	308997
LOK	Looksmart	1.16	0.07	6.42%	47614
NHC	New Hope Corporation	1.39	0.08	6.11%	104729

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
GRD	GRD	2	-0.25	-11.11%	129705
ABI	Ambri	0.14	-0.02	-10%	496390
MUL	Multiemedia	0.021	-0.002	-8.7%	16.18m
ERA	Energy Resources Of Australia	10.98	-1.02	-8.5%	22981
ETR	Etrade Australia	1.65	-0.15	-8.33%	322727

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell a rather sharp 192.48 points (-1.63%) to close at 11599.82 points.

The Kiwi Market declined 19.39 points (-0.63%). A total of 15 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 9.8million units. Decliners numbered 30, and total volume traded in losers was 12.3million shares. The largest percentage losers in the Kiwi market were as follows:

• Tourism Holdings (THL), -NZ$0.07 (3.89%) to NZ$1.73 on volume of 252,000 shares;
• Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), -NZ$0.08 (3.81%) to NZ$2.02 on volume of 2.92m shares;
• NGC Holdings (NGC), -NZ$0.12 (3.75%) to NZ$3.08 on volume of 663,000 shares;
• Port Of Tauranga (POT), -NZ$0.16 (3.21%) to NZ$4.82 on volume of 119,000 shares; and
• Trustpower Limited (TPW), -NZ$0.16 (2.99%) to NZ$5.20 on volume of 11,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 123.55 points (-0.91%). Within the Hang Seng, only 3 index components rose, while 27 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 32.5million units, and total volume traded in losers was 264.8million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the decline included...

• Wheelock (0020), -HK$0.45 (3.95%) to HK$10.95 on volume of 5.55m shares;
• China Unicom (0762), -HK$0.20 (3.2%) to HK$6.05 on volume of 30.87m shares;
• Hang Lung Properties (0101), -HK$0.30 (2.61%) to HK$11.20 on volume of 6.95m shares;
• China Mobile (0941), -HK$0.60 (2.31%) to HK$25.35 on volume of 27.12m shares;
• CKI Holdings (1038), -HK$0.50 (2.12%) to HK$23.10 on volume of 2.29m shares; and
• China Merchant Holdings (0144), -HK$0.30 (1.93%) to HK$15.25 on volume of 5m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3055.577	-19.39	-0.63%	23.05m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11599.82	-192.48	-1.63%	83687
Korea	KOSPI	958.96	-18.74	-1.92%	524503
Singapore	Straits Times	2126.44	-17.92	-0.84%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13473.55	-123.55	-0.91%	313.5m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	879.96	-5.48	-0.62%	0

USRant: With ADHD, Monday is Always Fun-day...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.

• a $9billion, 8-day repurchase with just $2.741billion in T-backed collateral.

The overwhelming bulk of the repo was actually in Agency-backed collateral; in other words

Major US Indices

Well, it was Monday. Mondays always have a modest upward bias... because the entire United States spends each weekend immersed in propaganda telling everyone how affluent they are... little wonder they zombie-on-in on Mondays and buy stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 42.78 points (0.41%), closing out the day at 10485.65 points. The index opened at its session low (10439.99) and hit an intraday high of 10533.55 just before 3 p.m. before softening a reasonably eye-popping 50 points in the last hour.

Within the blue-chip index, 16 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being American International Group (AIG, +2.54% to $57.02) and Boeing (BA, +2.29% to $58.10), which accounted for 20 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 14 and were led by General Motors (GM, -3.17% to $28.37) and Alcoa (AA, -1.02% to $30.05), with these two stocks contributing -9 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 174.9m shares to 140.2m.

The broader S&P500 gained 2.86 points (0.24%), closing at 1174.28.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite posted a rise of a measly 1.46 points (0.07%), to close at 1992.52, while larger-cap technology issues fared a little better with the Nasdaq100 adding 2.77 points (0.19%), to end at 1472.71 points. Interestingly, both Nasdaq indices set their intraday highs before 11 a.m.; that's an interesting divergence. Note also that the Nasdaq Comp - while trading above 2000 for a good chunk of the session, failed to close above that level.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.75 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was about average, with 1.54 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10485.65	42.78	0.41%
S&P500	1174.28	2.86	0.24%
Nasdaq Composite	1992.52	1.46	0.07%
Nasdaq100	1472.71	2.77	0.19%
NYSE Volume	1.75bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.54bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.61%

• General Electric (GE) +$0.24 (0.67%) to $35.97;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.25 (0.56%) to $44.77;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.33 (0.65%) to $50.99;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.34 (0.37%) to $91.04;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.12 (0.52%) to $23.30;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.01 (0.06%) to $17.89;
• eBay (EBAY) +$0.41 (1.15%) to $35.91;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.67 (1.24%) to $54.88; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.16 (0.25%) to $63.00.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1868 to 1436, for a single-day A/D reading of -432; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1666 to 1412. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -618.7 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -365.5.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 930.9 to 785.3 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 767 to 713.4 million shares.

36 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 72 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 56 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 85 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1436	1412
Decliners	1868	1666
Advancing Volume (m)	785.26	766.96
Declining Volume (m)	930.85	713.44
New Highs	36	56
New Lows	72	85

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	13.75	0.3	2.23%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.74	0.59	3.44%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.56	-0.06	-9.68%
10-day PCR	0.72	-0.04	-5.15%
SPX-VIX Ratio	85.4	-1.69	-1.94%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 3.4 basis points to 4.878%. The 5-year closed above a 4.3% yield, and is now close enough to 4.5% to make mortgage-holders nervous. I mentioned some time ago that it would soon be time to try and play the widening of credit spreads (i.e., that junk bond spreads were ludicrously low, and shorting junk was just a brilliant idea). More on that this week... it's almost time to load it up.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.772	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.86	0.02	0.52%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.323	0.034	0.79%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.624	0.033	0.72%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.878	0.034	0.7%

The Banks Index advanced 0.41 points (0.43%), closing at 95.71; within the index,

• PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.76 (1.51%) to $51.16;
• Bank Of America (BAC) +$0.54 (1.23%) to $44.29;
• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +$0.46 (1.09%) to $42.51;
• Keycorp (KEY) +$0.26 (0.83%) to $31.75; and
• Wells Fargo (WFC) +$0.48 (0.82%) to $58.87.

The Broker-dealer Index advanced 0.44 points (0.3%), ending the day at 144.74; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Charles Schwab (SCH) +$0.22 (2.2%) to $10.23;
• E*Trade (ET) +$0.19 (1.59%) to $12.17;
• Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.16 (1.57%) to $10.33;
• Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.24 (1.34%) to $94.02; and
• Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.28 (1.18%) to $109.68.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 0.38 points (0.09%), to end the session at 415.5

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -$0.65 (4.03%) to $15.47;
• Applied Materials (AMAT) -$0.18 (1.08%) to $16.45;
• Micron Technology (MU) -$0.06 (0.59%) to $10.17;
• Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) -$0.07 (0.4%) to $17.40; and
• ST Microelectronic (STM) -$0.06 (0.36%) to $16.74.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $1.20 (0.28%) to close at $425.7 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index dipped 1.95 points (0.98%), at 197.39

• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.12 (3.37%) to $3.44;
• Golden Star (GSS) -$0.08 (3.01%) to $2.58;
• Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.27 (2.24%) to $11.76;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.11 (1.81%) to $5.96; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.19 (1.61%) to $11.61.

Silver fell by $0.02 (0.33%) to close at $6.91 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.38 points (0.41%), closing at 92.59 points.

• Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.11 (1.81%) to $5.96;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.19 (1.61%) to $11.61;
• Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.22 (1.35%) to $16.02; and
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.22 (0.63%) to $34.71.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	425.70	1.20	0.28%
Silver	6.91	-0.02	-0.33%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	92.59	-0.38	-0.41%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	197.39	-1.95	-0.98%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding another $1.11 per barrel, closing at $53.73 per barrel. It was interesting to read a précis of a conference call hosted by JPMorganChase regarding the "Peak Oil" hypothesis; interesting because if a merchant wanker is convinced it's valid, in all likelihood it's not.

The JPM conflab also included a chap called Lynch, who is basically of the view that Peak Oil is not as sensible as is made out, and may in fact be a scam deliberately promulgated by the oil industry to increase prices.

It is pretty easy to explain that a lot of the supply constraints being experienced, stem from lack of capacity expansion when oil was at much lower prices - and not from an actual lack of deposits of the black stuff. Few people recall how badly affected the oil-producing nations were, when oil prices threatened to drop into the teens in the 1980s... and given the long lead times required for new capacity to come on stream, any expansion in capacity that might be planned now,will not be online for another two or three years. The JPM conflab didn't contain any content discern regarding the abiotic oil hypothesis... of which more later. Still, a lot of relatively undeveloped countries (Venezuela, for example) are having an absolute field day at the moment, and are getting massive foreign reserve accumulation...)

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) shed 2.77 points (0.33%), closing at 837.02

• Unocal (UCL) -$0.50 (0.84%) to $59.10;
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$0.57 (0.82%) to $69.23; and
• Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$0.57 (0.73%) to $77.98.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index added 1.78 points (1.31%), closing at 137.18

• BJ Services (BJS) +$1.55 (3.11%) to $51.46;
• Cooper Cameron (CAM) +$0.99 (1.8%) to $56.01; and
• Noble Corp (NE) +$0.91 (1.68%) to $55.20.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	317.36	10.48	3.42%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	53.73	-1.11	-2.02%
Heating Oil	1.539	-0.01	-0.61%
Natural Gas	7.019	5.96	560.92%
Unleaded Gas	1.57	-0.03	-1.83%
AMEX Oil Index	837.02	-2.77	-0.33%
Oil Service Index	137.18	1.78	1.31%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	84.54	0.36	0.43%
Euro	1.2878	-0.0061	-0.47%
Yen	107.35	1.02	0.96%
Sterling	1.8655	-0.0037	-0.2%
Australian Dollar	0.7675	-0.004	-0.52%
Swiss Franc	1.2051	0.004	0.33%
Canadian Dollar	0.8216	-0.0007	-0.09%

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USRant: A Bounce... Then a Sag...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

• a $6.5billion, 8-day repurchase with $6.394billion in T-backed collateral ; and
• a $9billion, 14-day repurchase with $6.62billion in T-backed collateral .

Now that's a lot of repo - and yet the market yielded bubkus for anyone who had a punt on the long side at 10 a.m. (mostly because the second $6bill repo wasn't announced until 9:45 - an hour later than usual). We will have to start allowing for the time at which the repurchases are undertaken...

Major US Indices

All of the indices closed right at their lows of the session, after a promising start. At 12:30 p.m. the Dow was up about 60 and everything looked just hunky-dory... and everything turned to a pile of crap from that moment on.

The market appeared to have been hanging its hat on GE's profit upgrade, because the other data was - on balance - awful.

• Jobless claims numbers(released before the market opened) were worse than anticipated (324k compared with a consensus range of 312-319k);
• Durable Goods orders stank (especially the most important number - non-defence capex ex-aircraft - which fell 2.1%); and, (surprise surprise)
• New Home Sales continued to crank. The rate of purchase of new homes rose a staggering 9.1%; does this remind you of the Nasdaq in 1999/2000? It seems that everyone still believes that real estate never goes down... what happens when everyone already has more house than they need, and rates continue to rise even as demographics mean progressively smaller cohorts of buyers? This is a generational high in the housing market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 13.15 points (0.13%), closing out the day at 10442.87 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10518.63, and fell as low as 10442.87 (at the close).

Within the blue-chip index, 13 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being General Motors (GM, +2.23% to $29.30) on its profit update and Home Depot (HD, +0.88% to $38.03), which accounted for 7 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 16 and were led by American International Group (AIG, -1.92% to $55.61) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, -1.81% to $59.00), with these two stocks contributing -16 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 190.7m shares to 139.4m.

The broader S&P500 shed 1.11 points (0.09%), at 1171.42. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.84 points (0.04%), to close at 1991.06, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 1.83 points (0.12%), to end at 1469.94 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.72 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.66 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10442.87	-13.15	-0.13%
S&P500	1171.42	-1.11	-0.09%
Nasdaq Composite	1991.06	0.84	0.04%
Nasdaq100	1469.94	-1.83	-0.12%
NYSE Volume	1.72bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.66bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.17%

• General Electric (GE) +$0.23 (0.65%) to $35.73;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.07 (0.16%) to $44.52;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.01 (0.02%) to $50.66;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.18 (0.2%) to $90.70;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.21 (0.9%) to $23.18;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.13 (0.73%) to $17.88;
• eBay (EBAY) -$0.42 (1.17%) to $35.50;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.05 (0.09%) to $54.21; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.84 (1.32%) to $62.84.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1975 to 1331 for a single-day A/D reading of 644. Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1633 to 1413. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -659.7 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -389.9.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 964 to 711 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 919 to 708.7 million shares.

32 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 57 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 41 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 79 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1975	1633
Decliners	1331	1413
Advancing Volume (m)	964.02	919.02
Declining Volume (m)	710.97	708.73
New Highs	32	41
New Lows	57	79

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	13.45	-0.61	-4.34%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.15	-0.53	-3%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.62	-0.14	-18.42%
10-day PCR	0.75	-0.03	-4.26%
SPX-VIX Ratio	87.1	3.7	4.44%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 1.9 basis points to 4.844%. The "second resistance" I had identified in the 5-year yield (at 4.3% after 4.25% was broken) was actually broken on Tuesday, and I forgot to mention it.

The fact that it broke during a period of extreme oversoldness (is that a word? it is now) in the bond market, is the primary reason for the slight retracement in yields. It's next stop 5% for the 30-year yield, and 4.5% on the 5-year. The steepening of the yield curve has already added 40 basis points to mortgage rates in the last three weeks, and despite that the housing market keeps chugging upwards... someone will be the last fool, I guess. I notice though, that the refinancing portion of the mortgage index fell sharply - and it is cash-out refi that is aiding the debt-addled consumer budget.

I mentioned yesterday that I would provide an update on what would have happened to the option strangle in the 10-year bond (which should have been closed entirely when one leg quintupled). Anyone who took one half position off at 100% profit and held on to the other half until expiration (the usual mechanism for longer-dated option calls), ended up with nothing; the second half went to zero.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.77	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.84	0.03	0.79%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.289	-0.005	-0.12%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.591	-0.016	-0.35%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.844	-0.019	-0.39%

The Banks Index dipped 0.35 points (0.37%), ending the day at 95.3; within the index,

• Washington Mutual (WM) -$0.58 (1.46%) to $39.11;
• Northern Trust (NTRS) -$0.51 (1.21%) to $41.60;
• PNC Financial Services (PNC) -$0.59 (1.16%) to $50.40;
• Mellon Financial (MEL) -$0.32 (1.12%) to $28.22; and
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) -$0.72 (1.05%) to $67.88.

The Broker-dealer Index dipped 0.41 points (0.28%), to 144.3; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Ameritrade (AMTD) -$0.20 (1.93%) to $10.17;
• Charles Schwab (SCH) -$0.12 (1.18%) to $10.01;
• Bear Stearns (BSC) -$0.87 (0.88%) to $98.38;
• Legg Mason (LM) -$0.33 (0.41%) to $79.30; and
• E*Trade (ET) -$0.03 (0.25%) to $11.98.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index posted a rise of 1.02 points (0.25%), to 415.88

• Altera (ALTR) +$0.01 (0.05%) to $19.30;
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.47 (3%) to $16.12;
• Applied Materials (AMAT) +$0.42 (2.59%) to $16.63;
• Teradyne (TER) +$0.23 (1.6%) to $14.65; and
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) +$0.54 (1.19%) to $45.89.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $0.50 (0.12%) to close at $424.50 per ounce. The USD price of Gold is now pretty much hostage to the path of the USD itself, and since the USD is bouncing, Gold is having a tough time getting any upwards traction. It's not rocket science.

Gold Bugs Index slid 2.59 points (1.28%), to end the session at 199.34

• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.66 (7.76%) to $7.85;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.37 (3.04%) to $11.80;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.10 (2.73%) to $3.56;
• Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.08 (1.46%) to $5.39; and
• Golden Star (GSS) -$0.03 (1.12%) to $2.66.

Silver fell by $0.05 (0.67%) to close at $6.93 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.95 points (1.01%), to end the session at 92.97 points.

• Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.66 (7.76%) to $7.85;
• Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.05 (4.81%) to $0.99;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.37 (3.04%) to $11.80; and
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.56 (1.58%) to $34.93.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	424.50	-0.50	-0.12%
Silver	6.93	-0.05	-0.67%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	92.97	-0.95	-1.01%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	199.34	-2.59	-1.28%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.77 per barrel, closing at $54.84 per barrel. The explosion at the 3rd largest oil refinery in the country didn't help: the refinery in question produces just over 3% of all US gasoline, but the area of the plant that was put out of commission was actually already shut down for maintenance. Still, the rest of the plant was forced to close for about 10 hours, although plant management told CNN that overall production would not be affected.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) lost 1.07 points (0.13%), to end the session at 839.79

• Exxon Mobil (XOM) -$1.09 (1.81%) to $59.00;
• Royal Dutch Shell (RD) -$0.34 (0.57%) to $59.68; and
• BP (BP) -$0.30 (0.48%) to $61.71.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index posted a rise of 0.79 points (0.59%), to 135.4

• Cooper Cameron (CAM) +$1.02 (1.89%) to $55.02;
• Nabors Industries (NBR) +$1.05 (1.85%) to $57.87; and
• BJ Services (BJS) +$0.56 (1.13%) to $49.91.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	306.88	0.37	0.12%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	54.84	0.77	1.42%
Heating Oil	1.5484	0	0.19%
Natural Gas	1.062	-6.11	-85.18%
Unleaded Gas	1.5992	0	0.08%
AMEX Oil Index	839.79	-1.07	-0.13%
Oil Service Index	135.4	0.79	0.59%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	84.18	0.24	0.29%
Euro	1.2939	-0.005	-0.38%
Yen	106.33	0.39	0.37%
Sterling	1.8692	-0.0009	-0.05%
Australian Dollar	0.7715	-0.0011	-0.14%
Swiss Franc	1.2011	0.0056	0.47%
Canadian Dollar	0.8223	0.0003	0.04%