OzRant: End of Financial Year Party(ish)...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Sometimes you know what you ought to do, but you don't do it. do you? You know that crumpets with butter and Golden Syrup are going to give you acid stomach, and you really should have some cruditées (sliced raw veg - carrots, celery and so on). But you also know that the acid stomach is hours away, and those crumpets could be ready in minutes.

Then before you know it; it's time to write the OzRant and you're reaching for the Mylanta.

And so it is in the investment world. We know that the sensible thing to do is to assiduously analyse the investable universe, using fundamental tools. Is this a good investment? You ought to be asking. Then, you examine how this 'good investment' is travelling, and you hope it's not doing too well (otherwise everybody already knows what you now suspect). If you get good fundamentals and a lousy chart, you watch it and wait for sentiment to change.

Now, how many people actually use that rather basic outline as their investment methodology? I know I sure as hell don't. If I was managing other people's money I ought to though. And yet I know from experience (I used to interview these clowns) that the people entrusted wit other people's money are just as 'in love' with their stocks as the next nuffnuff through the door. And when they buy momentum, these clowns create momentum.

So a financial year-end with the possibility of a Greenspan-ego-wank by tonight's US markets - of course it becomes a time to declare full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

Major Market Indices

After forming a funny little triangle that came to a point at 1 p.m. the end-of-year window-dressing got the better of everyone, and the market climbed right through to 3:30 p.m.; in that time the ASX All Ordinaries went from 4209 points (ten minutes after the open) to 4238.10, eventually settling with a gain of 13.30 points (0.32%) at 4229.90 points.

Total volume traded on the ASX was very strong at 1.15 billion units, 13.5% above its 10-day average (which in turn is now a tad above 1 billion shares).

Of the 483 stocks in the index, 232 rose while 153 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.9:1, with 305.46million shares traded in gainers while 160.98million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 14.50 points (0.34%), finishing at 4277.50 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 6.70 points (0.29%), finishing at 2301.20 points. Within the index members, there were 15 that rose, and 5 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 52.23 while volume in the losers totalled 23.59m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.43 (1.49%) to $29.35 on volume of 1.44m shares;
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.20 (1.26%) to $16.10 on volume of 2.03m shares; and
• Woolworths (WOW), +$0.18 (1.1%) to $16.60 on volume of 1.25m shares; and
• Amcor (AMC), +$0.07 (1.05%) to $6.72 on volume of 2.69m shares; and
• St George Bank (SGB), +$0.24 (0.92%) to $26.23 on volume of 1.3m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• Alumina (AWC), -$0.07 (1.24%) to $5.59 on volume of 3.08m shares;
• News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.11 (0.51%) to $21.35 on volume of 1.32m shares; and
• News Corporation (NWS), -$0.10 (0.44%) to $22.39 on volume of 1.99m shares; and
• Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.08 (0.2%) to $40.18 on volume of 916,000 shares; and
• Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.01 (0.2%) to $5.08 on volume of 16.27m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index rose by 12.70 points (0.54%), finishing at 2371.00 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.15 (14.85%) to $1.16 on volume of 1.22m shares;
• Emperor Mines (EMP), +$0.02 (9.52%) to $0.23 on volume of 16,000 shares; and
• Agenix (AGX), +$0.03 (8.93%) to $0.31 on volume of 664,000 shares; and
• Circadian Technologies (CIR), +$0.09 (8.11%) to $1.20 on volume of 180,000 shares; and
• Croesus Mining (CRS), +$0.02 (5.88%) to $0.36 on volume of 4.79m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.04 (7.14%) to $0.46 on volume of 6.25m shares;
• Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.00 (7.14%) to $0.01 on volume of 16.07m shares; and
• Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.09 (5.8%) to $1.38 on volume of 116,000 shares; and
• Keycorp (KYC), -$0.10 (5.03%) to $1.89 on volume of 450,000 shares; and
• Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.01 (4.55%) to $0.11 on volume of 1.52m shares.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4229.9	13.3	0.32%	568.33m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2301.2	6.7	0.29%	75.83m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4222.4	13.3	0.32%	164.72m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3476.1	11.5	0.33%	285.52m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4277.5	14.5	0.34%	388.23m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4269.1	15	0.35%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4123.8	17.6	0.43%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2371	12.7	0.54%	230.06m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	15	68	113	232	93	596
Declines	5	27	67	153	68	458
Advancing Volume	52.23m	190.12m	222.03m	305.46	117.61	624.03
Declining Volume	23.59m	75.63m	106.2m	160.98	70.37	331.93

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 1.12% to 9504.60 points. The sector was helped by

• Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.54 (3.52%) to $15.89 on volume of 462,000 shares;
• Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.26 (3.45%) to $7.80 on volume of 551,000 shares; and
• Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.18 (2.42%) to $7.62 on volume of 1.59m shares; and
• Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.03 (1.5%) to $2.03 on volume of 483,000 shares; and
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.43 (1.49%) to $29.35 on volume of 1.44m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.50% to 5172.40 points. The sector leaders were -

• SFE Corporation (SFE), +$0.39 (3.78%) to $10.72 on volume of 416,000 shares;
• Oamps (OMP), +$0.08 (3.23%) to $2.56 on volume of 377,000 shares; and
• Tower (TWR), +$0.06 (3.18%) to $1.95 on volume of 820,000 shares; and
• Bendigo Bank (BEN), +$0.18 (1.85%) to $9.90 on volume of 99,000 shares; and
• Bank Of Queensland (BOQ), +$0.18 (1.53%) to $11.94 on volume of 134,000 shares.

The bronze today went to Utilities which gained 0.47% to 4951.90 points. The sector was led by

• Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.12 (0.85%) to $14.27 on volume of 847,000 shares;
• Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.02 (0.82%) to $2.47 on volume of 2.07m shares;
• Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.02 (0.54%) to $3.73 on volume of 91,000 shares;
• Envestra (ENV), +$0.01 (0.45%) to $1.13 on volume of 249,000 shares; and
• Alinta (ALN), +$0.04 (0.41%) to $9.74 on volume of 1.12m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 0.67% to 386.10 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.03 (2.19%) to $1.12 on volume of 913,000 shares;
• ERG (ERG), -$0.01 (2.08%) to $0.24 on volume of 4.99m shares;
• Computershare (CPU), -$0.07 (1.18%) to $5.87 on volume of 715,000 shares;
• MYOB (MYO), -$0.01 (0.93%) to $1.07 on volume of 2.05m shares; and
• Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.00 (0%) to $0.50 on volume of 1.5m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Telecommunications which lost 0.42% to 1793.90 points. The sector was pulled down by

• Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.01 (0.2%) to $5.08 on volume of 16.27m shares; and
• Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.02 (0.36%) to $5.52 on volume of 3.84m shares.

(Note - that index outcome looks like a cockup - how can the index be down 0.42 when the biggest decline within the index is only 0.2%? It's wrong, that's how - but that's what's in the data feed.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	9504.6	105.7	1.12%	14.19m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5172.4	25.7	0.5%	52.41m
XUJ	Utilities	4951.9	23.1	0.47%	4.91m
XMJ	Materials	7320.5	32.8	0.45%	96.32m
XFJ	Financials	5069.1	21.4	0.42%	127.86m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5610.6	15.1	0.27%	31.3m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2233.5	3.5	0.16%	63.76m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1798.6	2.7	0.15%	77.76m
XNJ	Industrials	5202.4	2.6	0.05%	34.71m
XHJ	Healthcare	5278.2	-1.4	-0.03%	9.89m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1793.9	-7.6	-0.42%	20.12m
XIJ	Information Technology	386.1	-2.6	-0.67%	10.82m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
JST	Just Group	2.12	0.03	1.44%	23.78m
MXG	Multiplex Group	2.92	0.10	3.55%	18.51m
TLS	Telstra Corporation	5.08	-0.01	-0.2%	16.27m
BHP	BHP Billiton	18.19	0.06	0.33%	12.1m
NLX	Nylex	0.26	0.01	4%	10.41m
OXR	Oxiana	0.89	-0.02	-1.67%	9.23m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ETW	Evans & Tate	0.5	0.1	25%	6.91m
CMQ	Chemeq	1.16	0.15	14.85%	1.22m
ALK	Alkane Exploration	0.155	0.015	10.71%	619158
ADA	Adacel Technologies	0.28	0.025	9.8%	237880
AGX	Agenix	0.305	0.025	8.93%	664122

[]

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
AGI	Ainsworth Game Technology	0.46	-0.07	-13.21%	2.06m
IAS	International All Sports	0.18	-0.025	-12.2%	339692
PLT	Polartechnics	0.175	-0.02	-10.26%	615634
VLL	Village Life Ltd	0.455	-0.035	-7.14%	6.25m
MUL	Multiemedia	0.013	-0.001	-7.14%	16.07m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose a scant 6.57 points (0.06%) to close at 11584.01 points. The index traded in a very tight range, hitting a high of 11589.63 right on 10 a.m. Tokyo time, and dipping to 11542.45 points just prior to lunch (it was below 11550 for literally two minutes).

The Kiwi Market advanced 33.69 points (1.05%) in yet another 'coast to coast' job (well, there was a little 9-point dip at the open to the day's low of 3207.427 - let's call that 3200-ish) . The index hit a high of 3247.209 (3250-ish) tn minutes before the close before eventually setting at 3146.488 points.

A total of 33 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 22.2million units. Decliners numbered 5, and total volume traded in losers was 4.5million shares. Individual stocks that shoneincluded...

• Sanford Limited O (SAN), +NZ$0.25 (5.75%) to NZ$4.60 on volume of 83,000 shares;
• Tower Limited  (TWR), +NZ$0.08 (3.86%) to NZ$2.15 on volume of 1.48m shares;
• Cavalier Corporation (CAV), +NZ$0.15 (3.85%) to NZ$4.05 on volume of 13,000 shares;
• Fisher & Paykel H (FPH), +NZ$0.12 (3.82%) to NZ$3.26 on volume of 1.41m shares;
• Nuplex Industries (NPX), +NZ$0.16 (3.7%) to NZ$4.48 on volume of 175,000 shares; and
• Steel & Tube Holdings (STU), +NZ$0.16 (3.45%) to NZ$4.80 on volume of 69,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced a meagre 11.00 points (0.08%) to rest at 14288.28 at lunchtime. The index opened with some strength, but that soon evaporated and the entire morning was spent in a range between 14250-ish (the low was 14257.38) and 14300-ish (the high was 14310.77).

Within the Hang Seng, 14 index components rose, while 10 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 103.2 million units, and total volume traded in losers was 36.4 million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

• Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +HK$0.90 (3.92%) to HK$23.85 on volume of 1.54m shares;
• Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.45 (2.88%) to HK$16.10 on volume of 5.59m shares;
• MTR Corporation (0066), +HK$0.40 (2.73%) to HK$15.05 on volume of 7.79m shares;
• CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.08 (1.62%) to HK$4.70 on volume of 68.72m shares;
• China Unicom (0762), +HK$0.10 (1.54%) to HK$6.60 on volume of 2.6m shares; and
• China Resources (0291), +HK$0.10 (0.84%) to HK$12.05 on volume of 1.12m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3246.488	33.69	1.05%	37.82m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11584.01	6.57	0.06%	0
Korea	KOSPI	1008.16	9.08	0.91%	500569
Singapore	Straits Times	2205.18	2.91	0.13%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14288.28	11	0.08%	163.46m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	891.49	1.51	0.17%	0

USRant: Everyone Jumped, and Then...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Poor us. We are cursed with the temporary torment in which a claque of self-serving parasites have wangled themselves the levers of power. It's been that way since the mid 1800s, and it will be that way until a group of highly motivated people put a stop to it. Sadly, due to assortative mating, these parasites breed like with like, creating subsequent generations of uber-parasites; women who like power marry men who seek it, and then they send their children to play with the children of people just like them.

The greatest con in human history is the idea that giving a man a vote somehow includes him meaningfully in the political process; capital must almost choke on its brandy when that joke is told during the dinners at which our political leaders whore themselves to the highest bidder. They must laugh especially hard in Australia, where they force their herd to express a choice (note: it is illegal to cast an 'improper' vote); the end-game of not voting is to be visited by the State's armed goons (you get fined, and if you don't pay the fine, the armed goons come get you).

As H.L. Mencken famously wrote - "democracy is based upon so childish a complex of fallacies that they must be protected by a rigid system of taboos, else even half-wits would argue it to pieces".

The question is - if you're not one of the 'highly motivated people' who will eventually overthrow our corrupt system, what do you do? Do you get all maudlin and increasingly acerbic, like a Thoreau or a Gore Vidal - or do you try and keep your sarcasm a bit livelier, like a Mencken or a Rothbard? It's a difficult one, when you see travesties like George W Bush's insulting speech last night. The primal impulse is to bash the idiot's head in with a rock, but that would get you imprisoned almost as fast as non-payment of a parking fine; the armed goons of the State would be upon you in a flash.

And of course you can't expect critiques of power from the Media - when the boards of the big media companies all include cross-membership with a big bank, a big oil company, a big defence contractor... you get the picture.

That's what the great bulk of 'progressive' people fail to comprehend - that media is not there to 'speak truth to power'. One of the most useful fictions the media ever invented for itself was the fiction that it is the gatekeeper of truth. Sure, it throws the public a periodic bone, but it is so hand-in-glove with politics that it reminds me of George Bush and gay prostitute Jeff Gannon (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed a single repurchase operation- a $9billion, overnight repurchase with not a single cent in T-backed collateral. It all went to prop up Fannie and Freddie; take a gander at homebuilding stocks' performance today, and you will understand why.

That's not helpful, Greenstain. Not helpful at all.

Major US Indices

With the media pimping the technical pullback in Crude Oil, every hopeful lined up for the starter's gun. The bell rang, the buy orders from the nuffnuffs hit the tape, and then...

Well, it should be obvious - a pop'n'drop. Smart money is taking every opportunity to get out of this market (as any good Dow Theorist will tell you, the recent line is resolving downwards, signalling distribution. That doesn't augur well for the chances of the Dow to hold above 10250 - which is an absolute key for a late-year rally.

Economic data looked OK - the highly-fake GDP numbers were revised upwards to growth of 3.8% (and the deflator down to 2.9%), both better than expectations. The Mortgage Bankers' Association Purchase Index fell again, but only by 0.4% (refinancing activity fell 1.8%).

After exploding upwards and hitting a high of 10433.79 within five minutes of opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned tail and waved its way downward for almost the entire session. It carved out a little triangle between 10 a.m. and noon, which served to keep the hopeful hopeful, but then fell out of bed.

By the clsoe, the Dow was down 31.15 points (0.3%), at 10374.48 points. It fell as low as 10363.28 during the session - the low coinciding with the very minor penetration of 1200 by the S&P500 cash index, and the test of 1500 by the Nasdaq100. Round numbers - you see.

Within the blue-chip index, 8 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being American International Group (AIG, +6.00% to $58.48) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ, +1.73% to $24.07), which accounted for 29 Dow points between them (mopst of those in AIG, oviously).  The AIG move shows how stupid people are: the insurer is subject to accounting-fraud investigation, but people still believe its earnings report (which, though showing a solid increase in profits, also showed a combined ratio falling - not a great sign for an insurer). Furthermore, the costs associated with the Spitzer investigation did not impact at all on the quarter in question. People will have a hurt put on them who bought it today, unless they sold it today as well.

Losers in the Dow numbered 22 and were led by Walt Disney (DIS, -1.66% to $25.43) and 3M (MMM, -1.37% to $76.04), with these two stocks contributing -11 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 184.5m shares to 132.8m.

The broader S&P500 lost 1.72 points (0.14%), to 1199.85. Within the index, gainers numbered 224, while 268 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.2:1 in favour of the winners with 888.75 million units traded in the losers as compared with 767.91 million traded in the winners .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite shed 1 points (0.05%), to close at 2068.89, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 4.5 points (0.3%), to end at 1504.11 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 36, while 64 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.7:1 in favour of the winners with 516.82 million traded in the losers compared to 299.45 million in the winners .

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.77 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was a little abvoe average, with 1.69 billion shares traded.

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10374.48	-31.15	-0.3%
S&P500	1199.85	-1.72	-0.14%
Nasdaq Composite	2068.89	-1	-0.05%
Nasdaq100	1504.11	-4.5	-0.3%
NYSE Volume	1.77bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.69bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.29%

• General Electric (GE) -$0.15 (0.43%) to $35.00;
• Citigroup (C) -$0.24 (0.51%) to $46.78;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.11 (0.23%) to $48.54;
• I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.57 (0.76%) to $74.72;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.08 (0.3%) to $26.25;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.20 (1.04%) to $19.36;
• eBay (EBAY) -$0.55 (1.64%) to $32.90;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.04 (0.07%) to $58.83; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.23 (0.35%) to $65.20.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1850 to 1371 for a single-day A/D reading of 479; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1565 to 1454. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 259.2 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 40.8.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 873.5 to 803.3 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 886 to 759.9 million shares.

202 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 35 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 117 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 33 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1850	1565
Decliners	1371	1454
Advancing Volume (m)	873.47	885.97
Declining Volume (m)	803.31	759.91
New Highs	202	117
New Lows	35	33

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.77	0.19	1.64%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	14.46	-0.38	-2.56%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.71	-0.11	-13.41%
10-day PCR	0.73	-0.01	-0.74%
SPX-VIX Ratio	101.9	-1.82	-1.76%

Bond Market Analysis

After a spike back up to 119&1/32 following the GDP data (stop-running, dear folks), bonds fell again.

The 30-year T-bond  future bottomed out (for the session) at 117&30/32 and clsoed at 118&5/32 - for a profit of 30 ticks ($937.65) per contract, and a 'maximum positive excursion' of 35 ticks (1093.75) per contract. That's a return of 60.4% per $1553 margin requirement. Not bad for 2 days (and at its peak, it was 70.42% profit). The trading plan was laid out, in detail, last Friday. Unstated in that plan (because I've said it often before) is that one half of the position should always be taken off at 100% profit - that effectively gives the second half of the trade for free.

Because of the natural behaviour of the bond market though, I also usually have a '3 strikes off the same match' view (you can see it in the archives) whereby on 'fade' trades at a genuine top, you usually get two trades that profit by half a pointbefore the bond actually cracks open. Think of Monday as trade 1, and today as trade 2 - there is still a chance that the bond will bounce back to 119 again to set up strike 3 - so if you're in the trade, be aware.

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose 2.5 bps to 4.265%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower (in price): five year yields rose to 3.769%, and ten-year yields rose to 3.99%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 2.0 bps tighter at 3.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts fell to 49.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 98.0 bps for 20-years.

Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were broadly tighter with the AAA-A spread on 20-years 15.0 bps wider at 41.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread 4.0 bps wider at 9.0 bps.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	3.063	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.64	0.01	0.28%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.769	0.016	0.43%
UST 10Y (yld)	3.99	0.014	0.35%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.265	0.025	0.59%

The Banks Index gained 0.12 points (0.12%), closing at 99.47; within the index,

• Wachovia (WB) +$0.51 (1.01%) to $50.91;
• Wells Fargo (WFC) +$0.60 (0.98%) to $61.94;
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) +$0.60 (0.82%) to $74.13;
• Comerica (CMA) +$0.39 (0.67%) to $58.79; and
• Keycorp (KEY) +$0.21 (0.63%) to $33.48.

The Broker-dealer Index posted a rise of 0.03 points (0.02%), to end the session at 160.76; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Legg Mason (LM) +$1.98 (1.9%) to $106.18;
• Raymond James (RJF) +$0.37 (1.32%) to $28.44;
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.30 (0.57%) to $53.32;
• Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$0.49 (0.5%) to $99.14; and
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.14 (0.36%) to $38.77.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 3.82 points (0.9%), ending the day at 421.37

• Teradyne (TER) -$0.52 (4.09%) to $12.20;
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) -$1.39 (3.07%) to $43.88;
• Broadcom (BRCM) -$0.79 (2.16%) to $35.86;
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -$0.33 (1.86%) to $17.37; and
• Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) -$0.28 (1.31%) to $21.06.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $1.60 (0.37%) to close at $438.40 per ounce. gold/s got uite a bit of work to do to mount a convincing bull run - it pretty much has to close above $449 to be genuinely convincing.

Still, Gold stock hounds are convinced - the Gold Bugs Index posted a rise of 8.68 points (4.46%), ending the day at 203.1

• Eldorado Gold (EGO) +$0.19 (7.92%) to $2.59;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +$0.25 (7.31%) to $3.67;
• Golden Star (GSS) +$0.20 (6.67%) to $3.20;
• Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.65 (6.1%) to $11.30; and
• Glamis Gold (GLG) +$0.99 (6.04%) to $17.37.

Silver fell by $0.04 (0.49%) to close at $7.08 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 3.45 points (3.79%), to end the session at 94.55 points.

• Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.65 (6.1%) to $11.30;
• Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.28 (4.84%) to $6.06;
• Barrick Gold (ABX) +$1.10 (4.45%) to $25.80; and
• Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.36 (4.38%) to $8.57.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	438.40	1.60	0.37%
Silver	7.08	-0.04	-0.49%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	94.55	3.45	3.79%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	203.1	8.68	4.46%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground again, thanks to the journalistic echo chamber and the 1.1 million barrel build in crude oil inventories. The front month shed $1.13 per barrel, closing at $57.15 per barrel. 

Other elements in the Energy complex were also weak - but I am still of the view that $60.95 was not the swing top that everyone is looking for it to be.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) lost 4.04 points (0.45%), closing at 895.23

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$1.30 (1.65%) to $77.67;
• Royal Dutch Shell (RD) -$0.89 (1.35%) to $65.08; and
• BP (BP) -$0.85 (1.32%) to $63.55.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index advanced 0.36 points (0.25%), to end the session at 146.35

• Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.16 (1.92%) to $8.51;
• Smith International (SII) +$0.59 (0.93%) to $63.71; and
• Tidewater (TDW) +$0.28 (0.74%) to $38.23.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	308.79	0.17	0.06%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	57.15	-1.13	-1.94%
Heating Oil	1.6225	-0.02	-1.04%
Natural Gas	7.096	0.02	0.23%
Unleaded Gas	1.587	-0.04	-2.49%
AMEX Oil Index	895.23	-4.04	-0.45%
Oil Service Index	146.35	0.36	0.25%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	89.11	0.12	0.13%
Euro	1.2071	0.0018	0.15%
Yen	110.43	0.4	0.36%
Sterling	1.8065	-0.0082	-0.45%
Australian Dollar	0.7619	-0.0006	-0.08%
Swiss Franc	1.2823	0.0006	0.05%
Canadian Dollar	0.814	0.0025	0.31%

OzRant: Textbook "Pop'n'Drop"...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

After rising like a skyrocket just after the opening bell, a funny thing happened. The market caught sight of 4250 (XAO) and 4300 (XJO) and clearly thought "Nuh-uh. That would just be silly". After all, last time folks went silly and bought the thing up through 4300 on XJO, they got handed their heads on a plate.

Still, having 4200 (XAO) and 4250 (XJO) below also gave everybody some clear idea of when the fall would stop.

It's nice when everything is trading based on index levels rather than on stupid irrelevancies like yield, price-earnings ratio, economic sensitivities, and the global morass being created by the various War Criminals in positions of authority around the planet.  (Yes, that even includes Howard the Brown-Tongued Chimp - he should also be in the dock on the Hague along with Blair and Bush - why hasn't our media even mentioned the Downing Street Memos?).

It makes life easier... we can all watch the Cradle of Civilisation being turned into a charnel house, with its oil infrastructure subject to constant action by Iraqi Resistance fighters (let's use the same nomenclature as we do for those who fought against the Nazis in France in WWII)... and we can rest safe in the knowledge that markets will turn and bounce at nice round numbers - right up until the point at which they don't.

The blowback from US Foreign policy is like the little introductory joke in "Mostly Harmless" (to paraphrase)-

• Things that happen, happen
• Things that, in happening, cause themselves to happen again... happen again;
• Not necessarily in that order, though.

But let's ignore US foreign policy for the rest of this rant... and move on to Australian equity markets.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries- fell by 5.40 points (-0.13%), finishing at 4216.60 points. The surged at the open to set its intraday high of 4243.60 after just 15 minutes of trade, and never saw that level again for the session. The low for the session (4208.2 points) occurred just before 2 p.m.; there was a very slight waft upwards into the close, but as you can see from the closing print it was nothing to write home about.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.03 billion units, 5.2% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 204 fell while 154 managed a gain. Despite the loser-bias in the advance-decline stats, volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.2:1, with 274.07 million shares traded in gainers while 234.96 million shares traded in the days value-bleeders.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 7.80 points (-0.18%), finishing at 4263.00 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 6.90 points (-0.30%), finishing at 2294.50 points. Within the index members, there were 5 that rose, and 14 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 45.45 million shares, while volume in the losers totalled 53.81m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• News Corporation (NWS), +$0.11 (0.49%) to $22.49 on volume of 2.13m shares;
• Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.07 (0.4%) to $17.77 on volume of 4.68m shares; and
• News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.08 (0.37%) to $21.46 on volume of 1.72m shares; and
• BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.05 (0.28%) to $18.13 on volume of 19.48m shares; and
• Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.01 (0.2%) to $5.09 on volume of 17.44m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• Amcor (AMC), -$0.13 (1.92%) to $6.65 on volume of 7.23m shares;
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.24 (1.49%) to $15.90 on volume of 2.96m shares; and
• AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.08 (1.23%) to $6.44 on volume of 10.88m shares; and
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.33 (1.13%) to $28.92 on volume of 2.24m shares; and
• Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.08 (0.86%) to $9.21 on volume of 4.91m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 3.70 points (-0.16%), finishing at 2358.30 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Village Life Ltd (VLL), +$0.11 (28.95%) to $0.49 on volume of 13.99m shares;
• Globe International (GLB), +$0.04 (12.9%) to $0.35 on volume of 1.62m shares; and
• Orbital Corporation (OEC), +$0.01 (10%) to $0.11 on volume of 12.38m shares; and
• SP Telemedia (SOT), +$0.10 (6.76%) to $1.58 on volume of 1.34m shares; and
• Cellestis (CST), +$0.15 (5.28%) to $2.99 on volume of 117,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.02 (10%) to $0.14 on volume of 896,000 shares;
• Emperor Mines (EMP), -$0.02 (6.67%) to $0.21 on volume of 167,000 shares; and
• Psivida (PSD), -$0.05 (6.1%) to $0.77 on volume of 395,000 shares; and
• Virotec International (VTI), -$0.04 (4.73%) to $0.71 on volume of 126,000 shares; and
• Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.05 (4.52%) to $0.95 on volume of 1.24m shares.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4216.6	-5.4	-0.13%	677.5m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2294.5	-6.9	-0.3%	103.89m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4209.1	-11.5	-0.27%	236.14m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3464.6	-6.5	-0.19%	415.73m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4263	-7.8	-0.18%	500.32m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4254.1	-7.9	-0.19%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4106.2	13.2	0.32%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2358.3	-3.7	-0.16%	200.9m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	5	32	65	154	58	425
Declines	14	48	102	204	96	545
Advancing Volume	45.45m	173.9m	200.12m	274.07	86.76	383.03
Declining Volume	53.81m	155.36m	191.47m	234.96	66.56	422.96

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Property Trusts which gained 0.37% to 1795.90 points. The sector was helped by

• Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.08 (2.92%) to $2.82 on volume of 11.55m shares;
• Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.10 (2.85%) to $3.61 on volume of 2.91m shares; and
• Centro Properties Group (CNP), +$0.05 (0.86%) to $5.89 on volume of 7.73m shares; and
• Galileo Shopping America Trust (GSA), +$0.01 (0.84%) to $1.21 on volume of 798,000 shares; and
• Macquarie Prologis Trust (MPR), +$0.01 (0.44%) to $1.15 on volume of 10.87m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Industrials which gained 0.26% to 5199.80 points. The sector leaders were -

• Macquarie Airports (MAP), +$0.07 (2.01%) to $3.55 on volume of 7.01m shares;
• Transfield Services (TSE), +$0.14 (1.86%) to $7.66 on volume of 662,000 shares; and
• United Group (UGL), +$0.17 (1.81%) to $9.58 on volume of 628,000 shares; and
• Corporate Express Australia (CXP), +$0.10 (1.72%) to $5.90 on volume of 58,000 shares; and
• Toll Holdings (TOL), +$0.13 (1%) to $13.16 on volume of 490,000 shares.

The bronze today went to Telecommunications which gained 0.17% to 1801.50 points. The sector was led by

• Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.01 (0.2%) to $5.09 on volume of 17.44m shares;
• Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.00 (0%) to $5.50 on volume of 3.46m shares; and

The worst-performed sector today was Energy which lost 1.06% to 9398.90 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Roc Oil Company (ROC), -$0.07 (3.2%) to $1.97 on volume of 1.69m shares;
• Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.21 (2.75%) to $7.44 on volume of 2.03m shares;
• Hardman Resources (HDR), -$0.05 (2.24%) to $2.18 on volume of 1.76m shares;
• Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.04 (2.01%) to $1.96 on volume of 404,000 shares; and
• Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.04 (1.96%) to $2.00 on volume of 1.55m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which lost 0.54% to 5146.70 points. The sector was pulled down by

• Bendigo Bank (BEN), -$0.27 (2.7%) to $9.72 on volume of 128,000 shares;
• IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.14 (2.01%) to $6.83 on volume of 51,000 shares;
• Oamps (OMP), -$0.05 (1.98%) to $2.48 on volume of 918,000 shares;
• Axa Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA), -$0.08 (1.78%) to $4.42 on volume of 3.31m shares; and
• Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), -$0.05 (1.6%) to $3.08 on volume of 1.04m shares.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XPJ	Property Trusts	1795.9	6.6	0.37%	120.61m
XNJ	Industrials	5199.8	13.3	0.26%	61.44m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1801.5	3	0.17%	20.9m
XMJ	Materials	7287.7	9.6	0.13%	115.03m
XIJ	Information Technology	388.7	0.5	0.13%	6.72m
XHJ	Healthcare	5279.6	-1.2	-0.02%	12.19m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2230	-2.3	-0.1%	34.81m
XUJ	Utilities	4928.8	-14.6	-0.3%	4.81m
XFJ	Financials	5047.7	-17.4	-0.34%	191.06m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5595.5	-20.3	-0.36%	32.02m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5146.7	-28	-0.54%	75.13m
XEJ	Energy	9398.9	-100.5	-1.06%	42.24m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
OSH	Oil Search	3.05	0.04	1.33%	28.14m
BHP	BHP Billiton	18.13	0.05	0.28%	19.48m
MIG	Macquarie Infrastructure Group	4.18	0.03	0.72%	18.77m
TLS	Telstra Corporation	5.09	0.01	0.2%	17.44m
PMN	Promina Group	4.70	-0.05	-1.05%	15.5m
VLL	Village Life Ltd	0.49	0.11	28.95%	13.99m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ETW	Evans & Tate	0.40	0.09	29.03%	9.42m
VLL	Village Life Ltd	0.49	0.11	28.95%	13.99m
GLB	Globe International	0.35	0.04	12.9%	1.62m
OEC	Orbital Corporation	0.11	0.01	10%	12.38m
IHG	Intellect Holdings	0.023	0.002	9.52%	4.85m

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PEP	Peplin	0.28	-0.04	-12.5%	468459
LYC	Lynas Corporation	0.135	-0.015	-10%	895760
ALU	Altium	0.20	-0.015	-6.98%	652650
PSD	Psivida	0.77	-0.05	-6.1%	394531
VTI	Virotec International	0.705	-0.035	-4.73%	126000

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 63.61 points (0.55%) to close at 11577.44 points. The index hit a high of 11594.57 (let's call that 11600-ish)just after the lunch break, after dipping opening above 11550 and dipping only so far as 11547.13 points (11550-ish) in the first half-hour.

The Kiwi Market advanced 21.61 points (0.68%) to 3212.797 at the close - as near to the day's high as makes no odds (the actual high, for the record, was 3213.191 set less than a minute from the close). The low (3191.192 points) was actually set fifteen minutes after the open, but it was only a teensy fraction below the opening level anyhow.

A total of 33 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 25.5million units. Decliners numbered 5, and total volume traded in losers was just 800 thousand shares. Individual stocks that rose most (in percentage terms) included...

• The Warehouse Group (WHS), +NZ$0.20 (5.43%) to NZ$3.88 on volume of 364,000 shares;
• Hallenstein Glass (HLG), +NZ$0.20 (5.19%) to NZ$4.05 on volume of 42,000 shares;
• Feltex Carpets (FTX), +NZ$0.03 (4.92%) to NZ$0.64 on volume of 2.86m shares;
• Pumpkin Patch (PPL), +NZ$0.10 (3.57%) to NZ$2.90 on volume of 127,000 shares;
• Tower Limited (TWR), +NZ$0.07 (3.5%) to NZ$2.07 on volume of 398,000 shares; and
• Sky City Entertainment (SKC), +NZ$0.14 (3.29%) to NZ$4.40 on volume of 367,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Sengindex advanced 76.44 points (0.54%) to rest at 14363 at lunchtime. The index opened weak, dipping to 14247.04 in the first 26 minutes (let's call that 14250-ish), before rallying hard over the next hour (almost exactly 100 points) before slowing its momentum and eventually setting its morning session high of 14365.05 in the 15 minutes before lunch.

Within the Hang Seng, 28 index components rose, while 2 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 271.9million units, and total volume traded in losers was 4.8million shares - and almost 60:1 tilt. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

• Wharf Holdings (0004), +HK$0.85 (3.23%) to HK$27.15 on volume of 12.38m shares;
• Wheelock (0020), +HK$0.35 (2.85%) to HK$12.65 on volume of 1.98m shares;
• CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.13 (2.72%) to HK$4.73 on volume of 148.53m shares;
• Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.40 (2.6%) to HK$15.80 on volume of 3.29m shares;
• Cosco Pacific (1199), +HK$0.25 (1.66%) to HK$15.35 on volume of 10.44m shares; and
• China Unicom (0762), +HK$0.10 (1.54%) to HK$6.60 on volume of 6.55m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3212.797	21.61	0.68%	44.1m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11577.44	63.61	0.55%	0
Korea	KOSPI	999.08	4.34	0.44%	402649
Singapore	Straits Times	2208.32	10.71	0.49%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14363.88	76.44	0.54%	308.57m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	894.29	-0.38	-0.04%	0

BozoRant: My Error, My Fault, Mea Culpa

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

There are three statistics-related aphorisms that I particularly love - but my favourite is an anonymous quotation referred to by Sir Josiah Stamp (who also generated some other aphorisms that I like).

The Stats-related one is as follows:

"The government is very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn well pleases."

The flummery of statistical compilation aside, there is also a decent amount of blockheadedness applied to the numbers once they are compiled. I performed one such act of blithering blockheadedness the other day, when I allowed the following to slip through:

Speaking of dividends, the yield on the ASX200 is now below 2% - and has been for several months. I don't know about you, but paying $1 for a 2c dividend (franked, on average, 76%) strikes me as idiotic. You get better cash extraction from a kiddie's Dollar-mite account (do they still have those?).

I note with mirth that the HTML tag used to identify indented quotations is <blockquote>; <blockheadquote> would be more appropriate in this instance.

Firstly, there's a typo (as I alluded to in a response to a comment posted yesterday by Sam Jones); it should have read ASX20 rather than ASX200. I wrote a long-winded explanation of my methodology last night, and I was immediately struck by what looked like a cockup (which I pointed out at the time)... namely, to reconcile the numbers I had for the ASX100 yield and the ASX200 yield, the 'next 100' must have yielded over 20%... patently ludicrous.

Now, I've never claimed infallibility. I do claim to be right a lot more often than I'm wrong; the bigger the issue, the more right I think I am - simply because I think about it harder... call it conceit, but I think that when I think hard about things, I tend to be able to get them pretty right. Rest assured though - if I am ever wrong I will always say so.

Anyhow - in my response to Sam, you can see that I had a suspicion that I had 'laid a grossie'.

So then I started checking calculations, and bugger me if I didn't find the problem. And bugger me twice if it wasn't all what we used to call a FAH problem (hover your mouse over the bold text to see what that means).

it starts with a firmly-held principle of calculation, then descends into farcical (short--lived) incompetence, for which I apologise.

First - the firmly-held principle of calculation.

I am not a believer in using 'composites' to generate index-wide numbers. So for example I tend to use 'source' numbers (EPS, DPS, shares on issue and last price) to generate numbers like Market Cap and aggregate PE for an index, rather than just using a market-cap weighting of individual stock yields and/or PE ratios. My justification for this is a nervousness about accounting for the price that appears in the PER and Yield calculations for individual stocks; if the stock's share price has move substantially and the PER calculation doesn't capture that properly, the aggregate PE will be biased.

In this case, the belts-and-braces approach turned and bit me on my flabby white arse.

In my haste, I had based all of my calculations except the one for the ASX200, on the Final dividend payments for each stock, rather than the Total dividends paid. In other words, I had left out all the Interim dividends. Thankfully I had not performed the calculation for the ASX200 at that stage (because I had not checked all of the data for the 'next 100), and when I did it I discovered that the numbers simply didn't 'hang together'.

So I withdraw the claim that the ASX200 (or oven the ASX20) yield is below 2%. It is, in fact, a hair under 3.3% (which is still WAY too low, when bonds are yielding 4.5% and are all overpriced). I have fixed the algorithm that does the index PER/Yield calculation, and this stuffup will never happen again.

Everything else I said in the reply to Sam was valid though - the presence of mobs of Property Trusts in the 'next 100' is what raises the yield on that vehicle relative to the AX20 (which includes non-yielders like New Corpse).

Thanks again to Sam for the questions that pointed me on the road to fixing the stuffup. As I said above, I never claim to be infallible, and so if EVER anything strikes you as probably wrong, for Odin's sake tell me so that I can set the record straight if needs be.

USRant: Bond Tank-o-Rama...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

What did I say after the US session on Friday? Let's recap...

Next week I plan to wait for a little pop on the day-session open to above 119, and then short the 30-year.

And guess what: yesterday the bond popped up as high as 119&10/32... giving the perfect entry for the short. And today that same bond closed at 118&16/32 (having traded as low as 118&11/32). I figure I'm entitled to claim an entry at 119&3/32 - to qualify the term 'a pop above 119 on the open', so I am crediting this as a genuine 'call' that has profited thus far to the tune of 19 ticks (closing basis) and 24 ticks (maximum positive excursion). That's $593.75 profit per $1553 margin, or  38.2% for the session.

Note also that I always bias this calculation downwards - with any decent broker the intraday margin is halved; anyone working on InteractiveBrokers ('IB'), for example, pays only $776 intraday margins on ZB (the ECBOT 30-year futures contract). That's not an advert for 'IB', but just quietly at $2.40 per side and with execution in less than 0.5 seconds, I've never found a better service for basic electronic futures, US stocks or US options. I have no relationship with IB except as a client - they are a ticket-clipper who doesn't pretend to be anything else.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $6.75billion, overnight repurchase with $0.341billion in T-backed collateral.

Yep - that's right - a teensy, tiny 341 million in T-backed collateral (all of the rest went to Mortgage backed... see the Fannie & Freddie show in the 'bellwethers' section).

Major US Indices

No repo to speak of, yet an explosive thrust upwards. Odd. Even before the better-than-expected consumer Confidence numbers (which came out at a 3-year high of 105.8 compared to expectations of 104.1), the futures had been trading up following a strong Asian session and opening strength in Europe. Prior to the open, chain store sales from both the ICSC-UBS and Redbook surveys showed stagnant week-on-week comparisons - but markets were ignoring it.

In other words, everyone got aboard the 'G-Train'. You know the one - it's where everyone positions themselves for a little 'ego handjob' for The Great Financial Architect of Our Times. It's the six-weekly smoke-and-mirrors show where Greenstain whispers sweet nothings in the market's ears after each FOMC meeting, pointing towards a bright oncoming light at the end of the tunnel... history will show that the light is an oncoming train, but it won't show it until after Greensplatt retires.

Of course with War Criminal (and PUS - President of the United States), Dear Leader Bush giving a hate-speech tonight about how everyone who disagrees with the slaughter in Iraq is either a terrorist or French, loads of people were trying to 'front run' the mindless-bandwagon jumping that will happen after that little propaganda effort, too.

You know how it will go - that people getting broomsticks shoved up their sphincters at Gitmo have nothing to complain about - it's no different from the White House shenanigans when gay prostitute Jeff Gannon used to stay over...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at its low (10290.55) and exploded upward to trade above 10350 before the first half-hour was finished. The rest f the session was a waft rather than a rocket, but by the close the Dow was still showing a rise of 114.85 points (1.12%), closing out the day at 10405.63 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10409.7 almost a half-hour before the close - giving some idea of the lack of late-day momentum.

Within the blue-chip index, 28 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being United Technology (UTX, +2.91% to $53.02) and General Motors (GM, +2.66% to $34.36), which accounted for 18 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered just 2 - Pfizer (PFE, -0.64% to $27.90) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, -0.35% to $59.09), with these two stocks contributing -3 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 280.1m shares to 49.1m.

The broader S&P500added 10.88 points (0.91%), at 1201.57; an important 'shunt' upwards to give the market some psychological mojo before Greensplatt's murmurings - and to provide a psychological 'round number' floor under the market for the post-FOMC fade. Within the index, gainers numbered 432, while just 65 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 4.1:1 in favour of the winners with 1287.79 million units traded in the winners as compared with 316.57 million traded in the losers .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite gained 24.69 points (1.21%), to close at 2069.89, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 14.86 points (0.99%), to end at 1508.61 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 80, while 19 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 5.1:1 in favour of the winners with 588.20 million traded in the winners compared to 114.59 million in the losers .

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.77 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was only a little above average, with 1.64 billion shares traded.

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10405.63	114.85	1.12%
S&P500	1201.57	10.88	0.91%
Nasdaq Composite	2069.89	24.69	1.21%
Nasdaq100	1508.61	14.86	0.99%
NYSE Volume	1.77bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.64bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 1.23%

• General Electric (GE) +$0.54 (1.56%) to $35.15;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.25 (0.53%) to $47.02;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.91 (1.91%) to $48.43;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$1.42 (1.92%) to $75.30;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.47 (1.82%) to $26.33;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.13 (0.68%) to $19.16;
• eBay (EBAY) -$0.18 (0.54%) to $33.45;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.93 (1.61%) to $58.79; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.98 (1.52%) to $65.43.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2368 to 899 for a single-day A/D reading of 1469; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 2218 to 843. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 211.0 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 25.4.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1347 to 379.7 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1279.8 to 329 million shares.

177 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 34 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 98 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 36 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	2368	2218
Decliners	899	843
Advancing Volume (m)	1346.96	1279.81
Declining Volume (m)	379.74	329.04
New Highs	177	98
New Lows	34	36

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.58	-0.94	-7.51%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	14.84	-0.89	-5.66%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.82	0.03	3.8%
10-day PCR	0.74	0.02	2.88%
SPX-VIX Ratio	103.8	8.66	9.11%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 5.1 bps to 4.24%. I won't recap again (I did that in the opening remarks); not because it wouldn't be fun, but because I don't want to jinx the call though, so I will keep the chest-beating to a minimum... one of the things that Madam Market likes almost as much as desperation, is Hubris.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower, price-wise: five year yields rose to 3.753%, and ten-year yields rose to 3.976%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 4.0 bps wider at 5.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts rose to 54.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 106.0 bps for 20-years.

Credit spreads (spreads between corporate bonds of the same maturity profile but different creditworthiness) were mixed with the AAA-A spread on 20-years 11.0 bps tighter at 26.0 basis points and the 10-year AAA-A spread 3.0 bps wider at 5.0 bps.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	3.075	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.63	0.06	1.68%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.753	0.072	1.96%
UST 10Y (yld)	3.976	0.074	1.9%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.24	0.051	1.22%

The Banks Index rose 1.01 points (1.03%), to end the session at 99.35; within the index,

• Bank Of NY (BK) +$0.70 (2.43%) to $29.52;
• BB&T Corp (BBT) +$0.70 (1.76%) to $40.40;
• State Street (STT) +$0.84 (1.74%) to $49.17;
• Keycorp (KEY) +$0.54 (1.65%) to $33.27; and
• M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$1.72 (1.64%) to $106.57.

The Broker-dealer Index rose 3.01 points (1.91%), closing at 160.73; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• E*Trade (ET) +$0.60 (4.47%) to $14.03;
• Legg Mason (LM) +$4.21 (4.21%) to $104.20;
• A G Edwards (AGE) +$1.19 (2.73%) to $44.80;
• Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.48 (2.62%) to $18.77; and
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.87 (2.3%) to $38.63.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 3.82 points (0.91%), to end the session at 425.19

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$1.05 (6.31%) to $17.70;
• National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.61 (2.84%) to $22.11;
• Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.73 (2.65%) to $28.26;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.47 (1.82%) to $26.33; and
• Broadcom (BRCM) +$0.59 (1.64%) to $36.65.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $3.50 (0.79%) to close at $436.80 per ounce. The Gold market has absorbed the USD bounce nicely, and unless something completely unforeseen occurs, Gold is now more likely to take off than to drop. I know it's odd that there hasn't been a significant nuffie-skinning, but the USD has stalled twice at my previously-stated target at around 90 on the USDX and there is no fundamental or technical reason why it should continue to defy gravity... which should be good for a new high in Gold, and probably before the end of the year.

That's an odd thing to try and reconcile with a potential upside pop in US equities (as I've mentioned before, 1300 is a 'valid target' on the S&P for the time being), but that's the number that gets spat out by a methodology that I believe in (and which works particularly well in the bonds).

The Gold Bugs Index slid 2.03 points (1.03%), to 194.42

• Golden Star (GSS) -$0.10 (3.23%) to $3.00;
• Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.34 (2.4%) to $13.81;
• Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.35 (2.09%) to $16.38;
• Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.05 (2.04%) to $2.40; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.18 (1.66%) to $10.65.

Silver fell by $0.11 (1.56%) to close at $7.11 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.57 points (0.62%), to end the session at 91.1 points.

• Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.07 (7%) to $0.93;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.18 (1.66%) to $10.65;
• Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$0.18 (1.44%) to $12.32; and
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.48 (1.35%) to $35.16.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	436.80	-3.50	-0.79%
Silver	7.11	-0.11	-1.56%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	91.1	-0.57	-0.62%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	194.42	-2.03	-1.03%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding $2.01 per barrel, closing at $58.28 per barrel. Don't think for one second that this is the start of a genuine retracement; this is just to crush the souls of newcomers. Think of it as a crucible into which people throw themselves in the expectation of riches; those who survive enjoy fun, games, and low-stress, high-income lifestyle - but it's maybe 1% of the people who think they'll do well. That's the approximate ratio of 'fade' players in the market.

That's not to 'dis' trend-followers; the 'Turtles' are a well-documented bunch of trend followers who mad tens of millions of dollars. But their 'system' requires very deep pockets (or to trade in options until you GET deep pockets), and it's certainly not a 'breakout' system (which I also refer to as 'get into the end of a trend... on the wrong side' system). It's breakout traders who go broke.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) declined 10.07 points (1.11%), to 899.27

• Amerada Hess (AHC) -$4.16 (3.77%) to $106.26;
• Marathon Oil (MRO) -$1.62 (2.91%) to $53.96; and
• ConocoPhillips (COP) -$1.42 (2.39%) to $58.10.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index dipped 3.13 points (2.1%), closing at 145.99

• Transocean (RIG) -$1.76 (3.15%) to $54.20;
• Noble Corp (NE) -$1.96 (3.1%) to $61.24; and
• Nabors Industries (NBR) -$1.74 (2.84%) to $59.55.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	308.62	-4.78	-1.53%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	58.28	-2.01	-3.33%
Heating Oil	1.6395	-0.03	-2%
Natural Gas	7.08	-0.05	-0.77%
Unleaded Gas	1.6275	-0.05	-2.72%
AMEX Oil Index	899.27	-10.07	-1.11%
Oil Service Index	145.99	-3.13	-2.1%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	88.99	0.54	0.61%
Euro	1.2053	-0.0111	-0.91%
Yen	110.03	0.77	0.7%
Sterling	1.8147	-0.014	-0.77%
Australian Dollar	0.7625	-0.0066	-0.86%
Swiss Franc	1.2817	0.0134	1.06%
Canadian Dollar	0.8115	-0.0015	-0.18%