No USRant This Morning...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I'm about to head off to Sydney for a few days, and I got up late (five minutes ago).

To see how useful the CCI divergence approach is, examine the chart below, which was a snapshot that was sent out in an e-mail shortly before 1:36 a.m. Australian time with the S&P futures at 1217.75... note the 'tease break' of the first hour low (marked 'FHL'), which coincided with the CCI divergence. Perfect. Timely, too. No griping about entries, either.

There were 2 selling divergences later in the day, one at 1231 and the other at 1234... lower prices during Globex and tomorrow, by the looks.

OzRant: It's a Video Game Now...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 42.20 points (0.92%), finishing at 4617.40 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4622.00 (4625-ish) after opening at its low of 4575.2 (4575-ish). We're back to the "Rule of 25" where the major indices just go hunting for each multiple of 25 points - and are restricted almost exclusively to the upside.

The market is in full-blown mindless-euphoria mode; this rally has gone farther than anyone would sensibly expect, (about 80 points farther). The crucial issue from here is - what drives earnings up far enough over the next quarters and year, to bring price into line with value? It makes no sense whatsoever for people to accept a market multiple of 15-20x trailing, year in and year out - at a time when dividend yields are still below bond yields and the domestic yield curve is inverted. Furthermore, if the market tries to retain the sort of multiples its currently running, the inverted yield curve will bite it (the market) on the ass if the economy slows. Look at a chart of the XAO - its last quarter performance looks like a tech stock, circa 2000.

It's not that big a deal really - but I really do feel sorry for anyone who is silly enough to think that there are fundamental underpinnings to the recent fifth-wave blowoff (which should be terminating very shortly, even if it's a 'throwover'). I've still got a shorting bias - by which I mean that the structure places less in the road of selling intraday overbought than it does for buying intraday oversold. What that means is that buys require a CCI divergence, sells require only an overbought %R. (Needless to say, today the arse-bone is reddish from being kicked in the shorts).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.15 billion units, 2.1% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 206 rose while 153 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.6:1, with 394.10million shares traded in gainers while 153.49million shares traded in the day's losers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 44.10 points (0.95%), finishing at 4671.70 points (4675-ish).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 29.90 points (1.21%), finishing at 2502.50 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and 1 losers (Amcor, which only dropped by a signle cent). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 116.53m units while volume in the losers totalled a scant 1.84m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.670 (3.07%) to $22.480 on volume of 19.09m shares;
• Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.750 (3%) to $60.010 on volume of 4.71m shares;
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.880 (2.51%) to $35.960 on volume of 2.3m shares; and
• Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.090 (2.23%) to $4.130 on volume of 36.55m shares.

The only percentage loser in the big-guns:

• Amcor (AMC), -$0.01 (0.15%) to $6.65 on volume of 1.84m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 8.20 points (0.31%), finishing at 2653.80 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.140 (8.95%) to $1.705 on volume of 820,000 shares;
• Citect Corporation (CTL), +$0.070 (8.05%) to $0.940 on volume of 1.9m shares; and
• Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.035 (7.29%) to $0.515 on volume of 1.23m shares; and
• Perilya (PEM), +$0.045 (5.66%) to $0.840 on volume of 3.87m shares; and
• Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.150 (5.66%) to $2.800 on volume of 2.27m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.010 (6.67%) to $0.140 on volume of 382,000 shares;
• Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.100 (4.76%) to $2.000 on volume of 31,000 shares; and
• Maxitrans Industries (MXI), -$0.035 (4.17%) to $0.805 on volume of 285,000 shares; and
• AAV (AVV), -$0.050 (4%) to $1.200 on volume of 98,000 shares; and
• Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.060 (3.67%) to $1.575 on volume of 406,000 shares.

Index Changes

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4617.4	42.2	0.92%	634.61m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2502.5	29.9	1.21%	122.4m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4573.4	49.2	1.09%	243.56m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3789.2	38	1.01%	363m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4671.7	44.1	0.95%	488.2m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4664.7	43.8	0.95%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4661.8	26.1	0.56%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2653.8	8.2	0.31%	184.71m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	18	63	101	206	80	524
Declines	1	26	70	153	72	426
Advancing Volume	116.53m	253.14m	321.65m	394.1	109.02	605.3
Declining Volume	1.84m	66.66m	110.53m	153.49	46.18	353.74

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XUJ Utilities which gained 3.20% to 5365.20 points. The sector was helped by

• Alinta (ALN), +$0.610 (5.58%) to $11.550 on volume of 1.1m shares;
• Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.160 (4.8%) to $3.490 on volume of 516,000 shares;
• Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.080 (3.1%) to $2.660 on volume of 1.25m shares;
• Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.440 (3.02%) to $15.000 on volume of 1.47m shares; and
• Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.040 (1.44%) to $2.820 on volume of 286,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 2.53% to 11084.30 points. The sector leaders were -

• Santos (STO), +$0.680 (5.88%) to $12.250 on volume of 4.86m shares;
• Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.150 (5.66%) to $2.800 on volume of 2.27m shares;
• Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.100 (4.22%) to $2.470 on volume of 3.79m shares;
• Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.070 (3.14%) to $2.300 on volume of 2.66m shares; and
• Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.080 (2.78%) to $2.960 on volume of 3.23m shares.

The bronze today went to XMJ Materials which gained 2.22% to 8889.90 points. The sector was led by

• Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.070 (3.83%) to $1.900 on volume of 14.49m shares;
• Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.150 (3.37%) to $4.600 on volume of 4.99m shares;
• Oxiana (OXR), +$0.040 (3.1%) to $1.330 on volume of 12.9m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.670 (3.07%) to $22.480 on volume of 19.09m shares; and
• Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.750 (3%) to $60.010 on volume of 4.71m shares.

The only sector that posted a loss today was XIJ Information Technology which lost 0.71% to 433.00 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.040 (0.93%) to $4.240 on volume of 825,000 shares;
• Computershare (CPU), -$0.060 (0.89%) to $6.690 on volume of 579,000 shares;
• Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.480 on volume of 388,000 shares;
• Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.000 (0%) to $3.510 on volume of 374,000 shares; and
• MYOB (MYO), +$0.005 (0.47%) to $1.080 on volume of 2.36m shares.

Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XUJ	Utilities	5365.2	166.2	3.2%	5.72m
XEJ	Energy	11084.3	273.5	2.53%	29.01m
XMJ	Materials	8889.9	193	2.22%	125.03m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1510.4	25.6	1.72%	38.7m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5638.5	31.7	0.57%	55.72m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2324.8	10.8	0.47%	37.25m
XFJ	Financials	5463	25.1	0.46%	126.37m
XHJ	Healthcare	6098.8	21.4	0.35%	9.01m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5935.1	14	0.24%	49.61m
XNJ	Industrials	5376.2	5.5	0.1%	49.7m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1860.5	1.6	0.09%	79.33m
XIJ	Information Technology	433	-3.1	-0.71%	7.18m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra Corporation	4.13	0.09	2.23%	36.55m
SGT	Singapore Telecommunications	1.88	-0.02	-1.06%	35.64m
BPC	Burns, Philp & Company	1.12	0.05	4.19%	30.78m
BHP	BHP Billiton	22.48	0.67	3.07%	19.09m
UCL	Union Resources	0.11	-0.02	-12%	16.24m
LHG	Lihir Gold	1.9	0.07	3.83%	14.49m

All Ords Percentage Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ALK	Alkane Exploration	0.24	0.06	33.33%	6.42m
TIR	Titan Resources	0.057	0.006	11.76%	3.97m
PSA	Petsec Energy	1.71	0.14	8.95%	820412
CTL	Citect Corporation	0.94	0.07	8.05%	1.9m
BCL	Betcorp	0.28	0.02	7.84%	1.5m

All Ords Percentage Decliners

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TKR	Triako Resources	1.01	-0.09	-8.18%	63124
LYC	Lynas Corporation	0.14	-0.01	-6.67%	381600
OKN	Oakton	2.14	-0.11	-4.89%	39860
SRX	Sirtex Medical	2	-0.1	-4.76%	31221
MXI	Maxitrans Industries	0.81	-0.04	-4.17%	284545

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3444.726	-4.69	-0.14%	29.11m
Japan	Nikkei 225	13617.24	181.33	1.35%	0
Korea	KOSPI	1231.22	2.65	0.22%	406186
Singapore	Straits Times	2303.22	1.38	0.06%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	15356.48	135.02	0.89%	166.19m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	925.15	0.65	0.07%	0

USRant: Boy, Was That Draining...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Today's USRant will be mercifully brief; as a result of a combination of hubris and bloody-mindedness I nursed a bad trade, undertaken at the wrong time, in defiance of a CCI divergence... for about three hours last night. I always knew it would finish with a gain (and kept saying so, with the same Zen-like suppressed-panic that Tripitaka exhibited whenever bad shit happened and Monkey wasn't around to save his girly arse). It did (finish with a gain, that is), but it's something I wouldn't do again.

Durable Goods Orders showed a relatively large 3.2% increase in our key component (non-defence capex excluding aircraft), and yet the market opened quite weak (but also choppy)... with a selling divergence in force and 10500 above, you would think that a selling bias would have kept me on the right side of the market. Not so, for reasons I will explain below.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

• a $5billion, 6-day repurchase; and
• a $4.5billion, overnight repurchase.

Do you notice what's missing from the bullet points above?

Usually there's a mention of something like "with $x.xxbillion in T-backed collateral undertaken at a y.y basis point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR)".

I haven't left it off through lack of sleep or a more generalised brain-fade; I just wanted to make the point as starkly as possible... and the point was that all of both repurchase amounts went to shore up the Toxic Twins (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). And if you look at Fannie Mae's share price (in the 'Bellwethers" section below) you can see why: it got smacked for a 10% decline today.

Major US Indices

Sometimes you just do dumb things - but they pay off. If you look at the long red bar just after the second-in-a-row sell divergence, you will see that the bar bottomed a tad under 10475. So the divergence (both of them) worked a treat. So why wasn't I short at any time? And - I asked myself this a few times during the session, despite knowing the trade was actually in good shape - was I long from the bottom of that bar? (Actually from 1223.50 on the S&P futures, but the setup was identical on a 15-minute chart).

Well, the answer is complex, and has to do with an inexplicable affection that I have for the buy side at the moment; I think it's driven (psychologically speaking) by my certainty that Crude Oil will continue to soften. Regardless of what was driving it, for some reason I've been allergic to shorting the S&P for a little over a week. Me? Shy of a short? Odd, indeed.

Anyhow, the market sliced through 10450 with only a minor pause for breath, and actually fell all the way to 10425; at that stage it was the thin lunchtime part of the session, and the nuffnuffs were left on their own while the big boys went for a sandwich. Like most nuffnuffs, they watched CNBC rabbitting about the oil price, thought "Hmmm... this is going to be bad for stocks" and kept trying to sell (more accurately, they kept refusing to buy).

It was obvious to anybody who was listening that, when da Boyz came back from lunch, they would have a new bevy of thinly-funded, dumb shorts to skin. How obvious? Look at the buying divergence that developed, and the move that happened after it.

So, despite defying a textboook sell divergence, we got our point (the S&P actually spiked to 1225.50 dyuring the afternoon rebound, so the point was very safe).

I've written before about people who buy a stock at $1, feel gutted as they watch it fall to 25¢, hold their breath for six months as it grinds its way back to $1.01, then exit and congratulate themselves on being a good stockpicker. Well, last night was my taste of that - and let me tell you it tastes like a shit sandwich with a side order of shit. I think that people who do it consistently would end up in the nuthouse. How much easier would it have been to simply listen to the divergences and trade in the same direction as the bias? Short on either divergence, pocjet the point, and the rest of the day is a goddamned academic exercise.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16.88 points (0.16%), closing out the day at 10473.09 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10512.1 on a 'tease break' of the first hour high, and fell as low as 10423.98 (10425-ish) during the mid-session "unsupervised nuffnuff" period. 

Within the blue-chip index, 20 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being International Business Machines (IBM, +1.94% to $79.50) and Verizon Communications (VZ, +1.76% to $32.41), which accounted for 16 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 10 and were led by Caterpillar (CAT, -1.99% to $57.55) and Home Depot (HD, -1.41% to $37.85), with these two stocks contributing -14 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 322.3m shares to 66.3m.

The broader S&P500 added 1.23 points (0.1%), to end the session at 1216.89. Within the index, gainers numbered 264, while 220 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.5:1 in favour of the winners with 1160.33 million units traded in the winners as compared with 773.60 million traded in the losers. Notice that both the Dow and the S&P had quite positive internals despite what looks like a session characterised by weakness; in fact the market breadth was relatively strong all day.

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.02 points (0.05%), to close at 2115.4, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 losing 0.03 points (0%), to end at 1568.81 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 46, while 49 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted evenly split, with the final decision in favour of the losers with 390.22 million traded in the losers compared to 377.42 million in the winners .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 2.14 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.77 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10473.09	16.88	0.16%
S&P500	1216.89	1.23	0.1%
Nasdaq Composite	2115.4	-1.02	-0.05%
Nasdaq100	1568.81	-0.03	0%
NYSE Volume	2.14bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.77bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 1.08%, but that was hugely biased by the absolute shellacking in Fannie Mae.

• General Electric (GE) -$0.15 (0.45%) to $33.49;
• Citigroup (C) +$0.09 (0.2%) to $45.18;
• Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.03 (0.07%) to $43.13;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$1.51 (1.94%) to $79.50;
• Intel (INTC) +$0.12 (0.5%) to $23.95;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.20 (1.13%) to $17.92;
• eBay (EBAY) -$0.18 (0.46%) to $38.93;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) -$4.99 (10.69%) to $41.71; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) -$1.10 (1.97%) to $54.60.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1681 to 1604 for a single-day A/D reading of 77; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1730 to 1248. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -209.3 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to -190.3.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1215.7 to 911.8 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 874.3 to 845.6 million shares.

159 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 105 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 92 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 83 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1681	1248
Decliners	1604	1730
Advancing Volume (m)	1215.72	874.33
Declining Volume (m)	911.8	845.63
New Highs	159	92
New Lows	105	83

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	12.63	-0.13	-1.02%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	14.35	-0.04	-0.28%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.55	-0.15	-21.43%
10-day PCR	0.60	-0.02	-3.23%
SPX-VIX Ratio	96.3	1.08	1.13%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 6.3 bps to 4.501%. A bounce was well and truly overdue, but having missed the last shorting opportunity I am too bitter to even look at the bond for another week or two.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly higher in price: five year yields fell to 4.111%, and ten-year yields fell to 4.262%.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	3.387	-0.018	-0.53%
UST 2Y (yld)	4.07	0	0%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.111	-0.016	-0.39%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.262	-0.039	-0.91%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.501	-0.063	-1.38%

The Banks Index slid 0.64 points (0.67%), closing at 95.6; within the index,

• Bank Of NY (BK) -$0.74 (2.5%) to $28.89;
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) -$1.38 (1.92%) to $70.58;
• State Street (STT) -$0.93 (1.91%) to $47.68;
• Washington Mutual (WM) -$0.55 (1.36%) to $39.77; and
• Suntrust Banks (STI) -$0.68 (0.98%) to $69.00.

The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.63 points (0.36%), at 175.82; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Raymond James (RJF) +$0.52 (1.68%) to $31.54;
• Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.67 (1.13%) to $60.07;
• Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$0.94 (0.81%) to $116.94;
• Bear Stearns (BSC) +$0.79 (0.74%) to $106.95; and
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.34 (0.65%) to $52.71.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index posted a rise of 2.13 points (0.47%), to 459.26

• Teradyne (TER) +$0.74 (4.85%) to $15.99;
• National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.68 (2.76%) to $25.34;
• Infineon Tech (IFX) +$0.23 (2.46%) to $9.57;
• Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) +$0.90 (2.06%) to $44.67; and
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$0.40 (1.68%) to $24.17.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $6.90 (1.49%) to close at $469.80 per ounce. It traded as high as $470.10 dring the session, as everybody fixated on why Oil was reacting madly to the Petroleum Status Report.

The Gold Bugs Index posted a rise of 5.9 points (2.48%), ending the day at 243.39

• Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.33 (4.5%) to $7.66;
• Randgold Resources (GOLD) +$0.67 (4.29%) to $16.30;
• Glamis Gold (GLG) +$0.69 (3.33%) to $21.44;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.31 (3.05%) to $10.49; and
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$1.29 (2.74%) to $48.31.

Silver rose $0.08 (1.02%) to close at $7.4 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 2.38 points (2.17%), ending the day at 112.25 points.

• Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.33 (4.5%) to $7.66;
• Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.31 (3.05%) to $10.49;
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$1.29 (2.74%) to $48.31; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.37 (2.72%) to $13.98.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	469.80	6.90	1.49%
Silver	7.40	0.08	1.02%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	112.25	2.38	2.17%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	243.39	5.9	2.48%

Oil Market

The key numebr for the oil market was today's Petroleum Status Report, which showed an unexpected 2.4 million barrel drawdown in Crude inventories. However the flip-side was a large (4.4 million barrel) increase in distillate stocks and only a modest fall in gasoline stocks. 

A note is required here; during the session, I saw it mentioned that crude inventories ROSE by 2.2 million barrels, and that distillate and petroleum inventories fell. In light of that, the rise in oil made no sense... but I've checked the data and the Crude drawdown is the correct outcome.

Oil was firmer, rising by $1.28 per barrel, closing at $66.35 per barrel (the session high was $67.40). The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 12.77 points (1.19%), to 1087.42

• BP (BP) +$1.22 (1.72%) to $72.27;
• Kerr Mcgee (KMG) +$1.30 (1.36%) to $96.89; and
• TotalFinaElf S.A. (TOT) +$1.81 (1.34%) to $137.23.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index gained 0.7 points (0.4%), to 176.01

• Halliburton (HAL) +$1.25 (1.84%) to $69.36;
• National Oilwells/Varco (NOV) +$1.07 (1.61%) to $67.45; and
• GlobalSantaFe (GSF) +$0.50 (1.11%) to $45.71.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	330.95	5.01	1.54%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	66.35	1.28	1.97%
Heating Oil	2.1686	0.07	3.56%
Natural Gas	14.2	1.08	8.23%
Unleaded Gas	2.1758	0.08	4.03%
AMEX Oil Index	1087.42	12.77	1.19%
Oil Service Index	176.01	0.7	0.4%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	89.38	-0.19	-0.21%
Euro	1.2036	0.0023	0.19%
Yen	113.105	-0.19	-0.17%
Sterling	1.7679	0.0015	0.08%
Australian Dollar	0.7591	0.0032	0.42%
Swiss Franc	1.2925	-0.0034	-0.26%
Canadian Dollar	0.8519	0.0029	0.34%

OzRant: It Can't Bring Itself To Fall...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

For the first time in a long while, the domestic market didn't trade in a range which was obviously circumscribed by 'quarters'. The closing print of each of the two primary indices (the All Ords and the ASX200) were both at quarters, but the highs and lows of each bore no proximity to the nearest quarter.

I don't view this as a sudden outbreak of sanity among the domestic 'investing' community (who are we kidding even bothering to use the word 'investment' anymore? The whole thing is about as 'investment' oriented as the average night at the greyhounds). 

Everyone is still twitterpated about the whole 'weight of money' argument - invented by the brokerage community - that claims that because domestic citizens are being forced to save through Superannuation, that there will be all this new money for the brokers to fritter down to zero.

Stop and think about where you've heard arguments like that before. Think about the "they're not buiilding any more CBD land" arguments from the last commercial property boom, the "population is growing but the supply of inner-city real estate is limited" argument from the tail-end of the recent residential 'investment' property boom.

Then look across the ocean to Japan. A nation of savers (with a savings rate of 25-odd percent), with a much more highly constrained supply of both commercial and residential land. And yet in that country, residential and commercial property prices fell 80% in the five major cities from peak to trough... and all those savings did sod-all for the Nikkei as it dove down from 39000 to 7000 over 12 years.

I guess the ticket clippers think that nobody bothers to vet their arguments - they are like the Perle/Wolfowitz NeoTrotskyites, thinking that they can say what they like because nobody will bother to check. 

That's what selling shit is about - giving the potential customer a story that looks attractive on the surface. I wonder when brokers will start trying to claim that their services reduce the appearance of fine lines, or make your hair shinier?

If a company listed that was in the business of making shit sandwiches, and was paying enough in investment banking fees, brokers would be fawning all over the fact that the shit sandwiches had low-GI bread.

But anyhow...

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 1.50 points (-0.03%), finishing at 4575.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4585.00 and its low was 4561.8.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.24 billion units, 10.6% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 224 fell while 145 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 2.5:1, with 422.44million shares traded in losers while 169.28million shares traded in the day's gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 1.60 points (-0.03%), finishing at 4627.60 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 4.10 points (0.17%), finishing at 2472.60 points. Within the index members, there were 8 that rose, and 12 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 32.28 while volume in the losers totalled 117.02m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.300 (1.64%) to $18.620 on volume of 4.47m shares;
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.400 (1.15%) to $35.080 on volume of 1.46m shares;
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.200 (0.84%) to $24.080 on volume of 5.31m shares;
• National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.270 (0.81%) to $33.500 on volume of 6.53m shares; and
• Woolworths (WOW), +$0.130 (0.79%) to $16.550 on volume of 4.94m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.08 (1.09%) to $7.28 on volume of 5.01m shares; and
• Alumina (AWC), -$0.06 (1%) to $5.96 on volume of 4.87m shares; and
• BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.20 (0.91%) to $21.81 on volume of 12.25m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 11.10 points (-0.42%), finishing at 2645.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Psivida (PSD), +$0.050 (5.88%) to $0.900 on volume of 381,000 shares;
• Progen Industries (PGL), +$0.110 (4.62%) to $2.490 on volume of 4,000 shares; and
• Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.020 (4.35%) to $0.480 on volume of 392,000 shares; and
• Silex Systems (SLX), +$0.050 (4.31%) to $1.210 on volume of 212,000 shares; and
• Primelife Corporation (PLF), +$0.055 (4.28%) to $1.340 on volume of 1.76m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.002 (10%) to $0.018 on volume of 51.44m shares;
• Coffey International (COF), -$0.250 (6.76%) to $3.450 on volume of 191,000 shares; and
• Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.065 (4.55%) to $1.365 on volume of 1.22m shares; and
• Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.020 (4.4%) to $0.435 on volume of 478,000 shares; and
• Macmahon Holdings (MAH), -$0.025 (4.31%) to $0.555 on volume of 1.45m shares.

Index Changes

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4575.2	-1.5	-0.03%	657.76m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2472.6	4.1	0.17%	149.3m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4524.2	-1.3	-0.03%	284.29m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3751.2	-0.1	0%	422.91m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4627.6	-1.6	-0.03%	512.59m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4620.9	-1.9	-0.04%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4635.7	6.9	0.15%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2645.6	-11.1	-0.42%	185.31m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	8	35	68	145	53	384
Declines	12	58	110	224	108	545
Advancing Volume	32.28m	118.06m	158.17m	169.28	37.04	503.5
Declining Volume	117.02m	280.71m	312.22m	422.44	126.64	588.53

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.50% to 5606.80 points. The sector was helped by

• SFE Corporation (SFE), +$0.390 (3.15%) to $12.780 on volume of 796,000 shares;
• Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$2.060 (2.76%) to $76.700 on volume of 866,000 shares;
• Lend Lease Corporation (LLC), +$0.380 (2.74%) to $14.230 on volume of 2.41m shares;
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.300 (1.64%) to $18.620 on volume of 4.47m shares; and
• Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.020 (1.03%) to $1.955 on volume of 1.03m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 0.37% to 10810.80 points. The sector leaders were -

• Oil Search (OSH), +$0.060 (1.57%) to $3.880 on volume of 6.67m shares;
• Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.240 (1.22%) to $19.990 on volume of 538,000 shares;
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.400 (1.15%) to $35.080 on volume of 1.46m shares;
• Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.030 (1.05%) to $2.880 on volume of 542,000 shares; and
• Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.020 (0.97%) to $2.080 on volume of 1.24m shares.

It's about time to lay out shorts/sell covered calls/buy naked puts on Woodside, I reckon.

The bronze today went to XFJ Financials which gained 0.21% to 5437.90 points. The sector was led by

• SFE Corporation (SFE), +$0.390 (3.15%) to $12.780 on volume of 796,000 shares;
• Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$2.060 (2.76%) to $76.700 on volume of 866,000 shares;
• Lend Lease Corporation (LLC), +$0.380 (2.74%) to $14.230 on volume of 2.41m shares;
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.300 (1.64%) to $18.620 on volume of 4.47m shares; and
• Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.020 (1.03%) to $1.955 on volume of 1.03m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XUJ Utilities which lost 0.97% to 5199.00 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.110 (3.2%) to $3.330 on volume of 561,000 shares;
• Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.080 (3.01%) to $2.580 on volume of 704,000 shares;
• Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.130 (2.72%) to $4.650 on volume of 252,000 shares;
• Envestra (ENV), -$0.020 (1.61%) to $1.220 on volume of 236,000 shares; and
• Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.130 (0.88%) to $14.560 on volume of 1.16m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XPJ Property Trusts which lost 0.86% to 1858.90 points. The sector was pulled down by

• General Property Trust (GPT), -$0.100 (2.48%) to $3.940 on volume of 6.89m shares;
• Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.070 (1.69%) to $4.080 on volume of 14.15m shares; and
• Multiplex Group (MXG), -$0.040 (1.26%) to $3.130 on volume of 3.37m shares; and
• Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), -$0.025 (1.24%) to $1.985 on volume of 5.51m shares; and
• Centro Properties Group (CNP), -$0.060 (0.99%) to $6.030 on volume of 3.68m shares.

Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5606.8	28.1	0.5%	60.58m
XEJ	Energy	10810.8	39.6	0.37%	24.17m
XFJ	Financials	5437.9	11.2	0.21%	146.74m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5921.1	2.5	0.04%	27.58m
XIJ	Information Technology	436.1	-0.7	-0.16%	6.82m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1484.8	-2.5	-0.17%	70.73m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2314	-6.5	-0.28%	49.82m
XNJ	Industrials	5370.7	-15.8	-0.29%	50.57m
XMJ	Materials	8696.9	-31	-0.36%	109.88m
XHJ	Healthcare	6077.4	-25.9	-0.42%	7.86m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1858.9	-16.2	-0.86%	97.41m
XUJ	Utilities	5199	-50.7	-0.97%	3.49m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra Corporation	4.04	-0.01	-0.25%	66.26m
DYL	Deep Yellow	0.19	0.01	5.56%	29.76m
SGT	Singapore Telecommunications	1.9	-0.03	-1.3%	22.88m
BSL	Bluescope Steel	9.59	-0.47	-4.67%	16.22m
ALL	Aristocrat Leisure	11.67	0.11	0.95%	16.13m
MGR	Mirvac Group	4.08	-0.07	-1.69%	14.15m

All Ords Percentage Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TIR	Titan Resources	0.051	0.005	10.87%	2.82m
ALK	Alkane Exploration	0.18	0.02	9.09%	565720
OKN	Oakton	2.25	0.18	8.7%	73509
NHC	New Hope Corporation	1.5	0.12	8.33%	4.12m
PSD	Psivida	0.9	0.05	5.88%	381087

All Ords Percentage Decliners

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
MUL	Multiemedia	0.018	-0.002	-10%	51.44m
TGR	Tassal Group	1.02	-0.07	-6.42%	200474
BSL	Bluescope Steel	9.59	-0.47	-4.67%	16.22m
RSG	Resolute Mining	1.37	-0.07	-4.55%	1.22m
VLL	Village Life Ltd	0.44	-0.02	-4.4%	478394

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3449.413	17.49	0.51%	26.59m
Japan	Nikkei 225	13435.91	125.87	0.95%	0
Korea	KOSPI	1228.57	18.94	1.57%	463933
Singapore	Straits Times	2302.77	-3.73	-0.16%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	15245.48	55.6	0.37%	182.17m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	927.22	-0.49	-0.05%	0

USRant: Hurt Feelings Make Bad Laws...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

What really shits me is when media outlets say things like "Consumer Confidence plunged as expected in the wake of Hurricane Katrina". Let's get it straight: Consumer Confidence was expected to fall to a reading of 98; it actually fell to a reading of 86.6... you will be aware that the consumer confidence survey is a meaningless stream of piffle, like all survery-based "feeling" data. It has no correlation with future consumption spending, so what is the point of it?

Regardless of whether or not it's a pointless exercise in branding and sloganeering (the same as the supposed American love of 'Freedom®', where you need a permit to exercise Constitutionally-provided rights to free association and expression), the fact is that if you're going to report its decline relative to what was expected, then if it's much worse  than what was expected you ought to say so. Unless, of course, you're living in the Soviet Union under Stalin or in Communist China under Mao.

Can't have Brand America® sullied by silly little things like Truth... like the fact that its pets in Israel are in violation of more UN Resolutions than Saddam Hussein, Iran, North Korea and Nazi Germay combined (OK, the last one's an unfair inclusion - I'm using the Jonah Goldberg principle ... "see if you can get away with it"). Truths like the fact that the US economic model has never been genuinely capitalist (well, not since Lincoln started giving away tracts of railroad land to his cronies), but has been, since the 1850s, as corrupt as Imperial Rome ever was.

And now, I see that the Yanks are going to introduce "Hate Speech" laws; there goes the First Amendment (as if it wasn't a dead letter anyhow). As J.S. Mill said clearly in section II of On Liberty, the truth doesn't need laws; through the ages there have been opinions that have been held as absolutely true by members of the elite, which have subsequently turned out to be not only false, but reprehensibly so. Think of Marcus Aurelius' persecution of Christians, for example - Marcus Aurelius was among the most enlightened of Roman leaders and scholars, but sought to crush Christianity solely because he thought Rome required the retention of its State religion. How did a smart man get it so wrong?

Of course the opinions that got Galileo imprisoned are another example - there were laws that prohibited the teaching of any notion that went against the geocentric model of the universe.

I wonder when it will become a crime to insult the Dear Leader? I wonder when children will have to salute pictures of Dear Leader each morning at school assembly, and read from the Thoughts of Chairman George? (Thankfully, Bush is too pissed to write anything down).

I wonder when dissidents will face knocks on the door in the night.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation; a $9.75billion, overnight repurchase with $2.998billion in T-backed collateral undertaken at a 9.8 basis point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). Yet again, a repurchase with a decent discount, but too small a distribution to the T-backed bucket.

Major US Indices

As silly as it may seem, I ignored the fact that a buying divergence was in force at the open, and simply sat on my hands until almost the end of the first hour; when your data seems unreliable it pays to sort that issue out before actually pulling the trigger.

The problem was this: I ignore Globex when examining 15-minute charts, however when I switch on 'exclude overnight' in my new data-providers' chart suite, it switches off the first hour as well (obviously the data machine thinks that the CME opens at  9:30 a.m. Chicago time).

Anyhow - by the time I had enough 'feel' to decide to jump, the very short term charts (85 and 260 tick) were deeply oversold, so a bounce was expected. As it turned out, that trade took less than a minute to garner the required one point for the day. I can't even show you where the trade was on the bars on the chart below - I tried to prepare a chart that did so but it was impossible to read.

I thought I would waste some space today with a little extra explanation of my favourite CCI-divergence approach - how to include the "fielder's choice" elements of the trading arsenal.

Let's say you've taken the divergence trade for the day, and pocketed your single point. Let's also say that you're trading a few lots (say, 5). You see that the market hits overbought (on the %R) after half an hour. What now?

First: there's no rule that says no shorting. For the 'full bottle', it requires a divergence in the opposite direction (or at the very least an overbought spike on the CCI above 200). But there's no impediment to having a crack with a partial position - say 1 contract - to see what develops and to see if you can't pocket some beer money.

I don't advise this, though - far better to simply trade in the same direction as the prevailing CCI-bias. But re-entry in the same direction can also be 'scaled' depending on the position of the particualr setup in my little taxonomy. First, move to a shorter timeframe (3-minutes, or down to the micro-scale 85-tick and 260-tick charts) and if you're trading a 5-lot for 'full bottle' trades, just buy a one-lot every time a 5-period MA of the 14-period %R hits oversold and look for another point. 

Sounds easy, but I bet you sit and watch ten trades happen, thinking "there's no way this will work - the thing's dropping like a stone". Precisely. 

The best time to buy is when it looks like the dumbest thing in the world. Sort of like the big-picture story fundamentally - it looked stupid to buy stocks in 1984 with the market at a PE of 7.2x trailing earnings...

Anyhow - that's all for now as far as the methodological stuff goes. If you can find a market for which it doesn't work, let me know, because there would be a PhD thesis in how come it didn't; you will have found a market where there is no such thing as a sentiment extreme.

After a very choppy first hour, the Dow Jones Industrial Average softened to spend the mid-session trawling around 10425 looking for dummies who would short a break. Remember my axiom "Never short a dull market"? Well, it was dull alright... it spent three and a half hours within 15 points of 10425 before bouncing (as usual, the dullness resolved upwards). After a test of 10500 (the sessionhigh was 10496) that coincided with a textbook short signal from a CCI divergence (marked eith red arrows on the chart above) there was a very high probability short for the remainder of the session.

By the close, the Dow had managed to hang on to a rise of 12.58 points (0.12%), closing out the day at 10456.21 points. 

Within the blue-chip index, 13 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Boeing (BA, +2.91% to $66.55) and Altria Group (MO, +1.34% to $73.49), which accounted for 23 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 16 and were led by Hewlett Packard (HPQ, -1.97% to $28.37) and Intel (INTC, -1.61% to $23.83), with these two stocks contributing -8 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 185.1m shares to 138.1m.

The broader S&P500 is harder to manipulate than the Dow (with the Dow you can jsut by the stocks with the highest hsare prices), so it managed only a 0.03 points (0%) gain, to end the session at 1215.66. Within the index, gainers numbered 250, while 227 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.2:1 in favour of the losers with 924.92 million units traded in the winners as compared with 792.47 million traded in the losers .

Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite shed 5.04 points (0.24%), to close at 2116.42, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 4.02 points (0.26%), to end at 1568.84 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 37, while 58 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.3:1 in favour of the losers with 422.09 million traded in the losers compared to 314.76 million in the winners .

NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with 1.95 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was chunky, with 1.65 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	10456.21	12.58	0.12%
S&P500	1215.66	0.03	0%
Nasdaq Composite	2116.42	-5.04	-0.24%
Nasdaq100	1568.84	-4.02	-0.26%
NYSE Volume	1.95bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.65bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.19%

• General Electric (GE) +$0.37 (1.11%) to $33.64;
• Citigroup (C) unchanged at $45.09;
• Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.01 (0.02%) to $43.10;
• I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.58 (0.75%) to $77.99;
• Intel (INTC) -$0.39 (1.61%) to $23.83;
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.20 (1.12%) to $17.72;
• eBay (EBAY) +$0.39 (1.01%) to $39.11;
• Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.52 (1.13%) to $46.70; and
• Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.28 (0.51%) to $55.70.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1895 to 1397, for a single-day A/D reading of -498; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1644 to 1353. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to -272.2 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to -126.3.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1087.8 to 816.6 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 917.3 to 697 million shares.

91 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 114 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 89 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 57 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1397	1353
Decliners	1895	1644
Advancing Volume (m)	816.58	697.01
Declining Volume (m)	1087.76	917.31
New Highs	91	89
New Lows	114	57

Market Sentiment Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	12.76	-0.28	-2.15%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	14.39	-0.43	-2.9%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.7	-0.16	-18.6%
10-day PCR	0.62	-0.02	-3.13%
SPX-VIX Ratio	95.3	2.05	2.2%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell marginally at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 0.6 bps to 4.564%.

The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower in price as well: five year yields rose to 4.127%, and ten-year yields rose to 4.301%.

Spreads between short-dated (2-yr) Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of similar maturity profiles were 6.0 bps wider at -1.0 basis points; spreads between longer dated Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts rose to 30.0 bps for 10-year AAA, and 66.0 bps for 20-years.

Treasury Yields
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	3.405	-0.02	-0.58%
UST 2Y (yld)	4.07	0.03	0.74%
UST 5Y (yld)	4.127	0.014	0.34%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.301	0.007	0.16%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.564	0.006	0.13%

The Banks Index dipped 0 points (0%), ending the day at 96.24; within the index,

• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -$0.44 (1.17%) to $37.02;
• National City Corp (NCC) -$0.30 (0.87%) to $34.14;
• Regions Financial (RF) -$0.13 (0.42%) to $31.19;
• Comerica (CMA) -$0.14 (0.24%) to $58.97; and
• MBNA Corp (KRB) -$0.05 (0.2%) to $24.50.

The Broker-dealer Index posted a rise of 0.45 points (0.26%), at 175.19; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

• Bear Stearns (BSC) +$2.01 (1.93%) to $106.16;
• Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.44 (1.07%) to $41.65;
• Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.08 (0.94%) to $116.00;
• Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.46 (0.89%) to $52.37; and
• Legg Mason (LM) +$0.64 (0.59%) to $108.38.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index lost 5.7 points (1.23%), at 457.13

• Micron Technology (MU) -$0.36 (2.98%) to $11.74;
• Texas Instruments (TXN) -$0.85 (2.52%) to $32.92;
• Infineon Tech (IFX) -$0.21 (2.2%) to $9.34;
• National Semiconductors (NSM) -$0.48 (1.91%) to $24.66; and
• Maxim Integrated (MXIM) -$0.71 (1.71%) to $40.89.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold fell by $3.3 (0.71%) to close at $462.90 per ounce. It looks like it's got indigestion following its recent highly-spiced move up above all technical upside extremes.

The Gold Bugs Index shed 5.26 points (2.17%), at 237.49

• Golden Star (GSS) -$0.31 (8.54%) to $3.32;
• Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.67 (4.11%) to $15.63;
• Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.15 (3.5%) to $4.13;
• Iamgold (IAG) -$0.22 (2.92%) to $7.31; and
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.40 (2.86%) to $13.61.

Silver fell by $0.04 (0.5%) to close at $7.33 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 1.81 points (1.62%), ending the day at 109.87 points.

• Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.09 (6.08%) to $1.39;
• Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$1.30 (2.99%) to $42.20;
• Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.40 (2.86%) to $13.61; and
• Placer Dome (PDG) -$0.42 (2.43%) to $16.85.

Precious Metals and Indices
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	462.90	-3.30	-0.71%
Silver	7.33	-0.04	-0.5%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	109.87	-1.81	-1.62%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	237.49	-5.26	-2.17%

Oil Market

Oil lost ground, shedding $0.75 per barrel and closing at $65.07 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) slid 1.62 points (0.15%), to end the session at 1074.65

• Royal Dutch Shell (RD) -$0.85 (1.32%) to $63.75;
• Repsol YPF (REP) -$0.29 (0.88%) to $32.51; and
• ConocoPhillips (COP) -$0.40 (0.58%) to $68.98.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index shed 0.03 points (0.02%), ending the day at 175.31

• Rowan Companies (RDC) -$0.65 (1.8%) to $35.51;
• Noble Corp (NE) -$0.96 (1.37%) to $69.19; and
• GlobalSantaFe (GSF) -$0.58 (1.26%) to $45.36.

Energy Complex
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	325.94	1.23	0.38%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	65.07	-0.75	-1.14%
Heating Oil	2.094	0.01	0.25%
Natural Gas	13.12	-0.02	-0.13%
Unleaded Gas	2.0915	0.01	0.6%
AMEX Oil Index	1074.65	-1.62	-0.15%
Oil Service Index	175.31	-0.03	-0.02%

Currency Markets

USD Exchange Rates
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	89.57	0.51	0.57%
Euro	1.2013	-0.0059	-0.49%
Yen	113.295	1.13	1.01%
Sterling	1.7664	-0.0128	-0.72%
Australian Dollar	0.7559	-0.0013	-0.17%
Swiss Franc	1.2959	0.0066	0.51%
Canadian Dollar	0.849	-0.0037	-0.43%