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A Monday decline. How
interesting.
I have
heard it blamed on Bush's lamentable Oval
Office speech over the
weekend, in which he basically said "The ragtag
insurgency in Iraq is
chopping our 'best in the world' military to
pieces, but we have to
sacrifice some more of our low-skilled youth in
order to... to .... "
to what,
exactly?
Oh yes. We have to get
some more
of 'our' kids (but not Bush's kids, and not
Cheney's kids) killed
otherwise the ones that died already will have
died "in vain".
Is
there anyone stupid enough to think that this
is a sensible rationale
for continuing a failed operation? Obviously
there is a core of idiots
in any country, but you would hope that as a
species we are - on
average - smarter than that.
Still, my
hopes might be
misplaced. After all, "Blackhawk Down"
glorifies the fact that the US
military wasted 10 or so lives in order to try
and retrieve two corpses.
Not two MIAs, not two wounded comrades. Two
corpses. The
commanders of the operation generated another
10 corpses (and 20 or so
wounded) in the process, and wasted millions of
dollars' worth of
ordnance (and lost another $20 million
helicopter) in order to get back
two skin-bags of dead meat. That. my friends,
is what should be known
as 'doing a Kerkorian' - where you throw good
resources into the fire
in order to try and salvage soemthing that is
already dead.
And
the public ate that shit up, on the basis that
somehow it's 'heroic'
that stone-stupid grunts are dumb enough to
believe in bullshit like
"Noone gets left behind". Here's a tip,
gruntsters... once a bullet
rips your brain in half, you're no longer
'anyone'. You're not
even 'anybody' in the sense that
'anybody' implies a
personality. You're a limp bag of
meat with half your face
missing - not worth dying for.
And as for
Dick "I had
other priorities during VietNam" Cheney using
the old bromide "These
colours don't run" at his speech - someone
ought simply to have grabbed
that sack of shit by the throat and done his
heart a favour (his heart
has been trying to quit for twenty years).
Cheney - like Bush - was an
armchair hawk even in his youth.
The
ultimate coward
is the man who is all for war but won't put his
body in the line of
fire. Be anti-war and get a deferment, and you
have my respect. If
you're pro-war and refuse to pick up a
weapon, you're
a bag of shit who deserves to be spat on.
Historically, great leaders
have led their
troops
into battle. Godefroi de Buillon,
Saladin, Othman, Genghis
Khan, Julius Caesar, Attila, Arminius ("Herman
the German"),
Wellington, Washington, Rommel, Montgomery ...
what these men had in
common was that they led from the front. They
weren't flabby, pasty
effeminate lady-men who want the reflected
glory of the spilt
blood. Crassus died trying to take Baghdad
- today's 'leaders'
are too chicken-shit to be anywhere near the
enemy.
Oh
wait... this is supposed to be about markets
and such...
Federal Reserve Open Market
Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk
performed 1 repurchase operation - a
$7.5billion, overnight
repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral
undertaken at a 3 basis
point discount to the Fed Funds Rate (FFR).
With that sort of size, and
with a decent little discount, it's no surprise
that the market had a
bit of an attempt at the upside beginning at 10
a.m. precisely: an
early dip (only about 20 Dow points) was
regained with the Dow rising
almost 30 points in the half-hour after 10
a.m.; a second effort saw
the first hour high broken jsut before
12:15.
As we
all know by now, breaks of the first-hour
extremes (high or low) are
almost
always a tease
tick,
designed to lure in breakout traders - and then
skin them.
The
thing about 'our' method - fading
intraday sentiment extremes (that is, buying
oversold and selling
overbought) is that the likelihood of a
reversal is very high so long
as you choose your reversal points judiciously.
The likeihood of an
intraday trend continuation
from overbought levels is very low... and yet
Homo Nuffnufficus
always
finds it easier to buy a high than to sell it.
Conversely - to their
cost - they find it easier to sell a low than
to buy when everything
looks like it's going to fall off a cliff.
Major US Indices
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost
39.06 points (0.36%), closing out the day at
10836.53 points. The index
hit an intraday high of 10922.41 just before
12:15 opn the 'tase break'
of the first hour's high. from there it dropped
for almost the rest of
the afternoon, although 10825-ish provided
support in the last
half-hour (the low was 10825.64). The Dow
futures had a high
of 10873 (10875-ish) and a low of 10773
(10775-ish) - an exact
100-point range that tickled two sets of
'quarters'.
Within
the blue-chip index, 9 stocks rose, the biggest
gainers being Pfizer
(PFE, +7.71% to $24.32) and Merck
(MRK, +7.46% to $32.25), which
accounted
for 32 Dow points between them.
Losers in the Dow numbered 21 and were led by
Caterpillar (CAT,
-4.71% to $56.83) and General Motors
(GM,
-3.84% to $21.05... poor old
bankrupt-as-NeoTrot-philosophy GM...),
with these two stocks contributing -29 Dow
points worth of downward
pressure on the index.
Volume traded was tilted in favour of the
losers by 274.6m shares to
234.7m.
The broader
S&P500
slid 7.4 points (0.58%), to 1259.92. Within the
index, gainers numbered
73, while 407 S&P500 stocks fell for the
day. Volume was tilted
2.7:1 in favour of the losers with 1419.58
million units traded in the
losers as compared with 521.94 million traded
in the winners. A tilt
that lopsided on a nday with no
news, presages a bounce
tomorrow. Even so, I still think Google (GOOG) is
worth a
shot on the short side, and I will hunt out an
appropriate option for
tonight.
Over at Times Square,
the Nasdaq Composite slid 29.74 points
(1.32%), to
close at 2222.74, while larger-cap technology
issues fared worse with
the Nasdaq100 losing 24.32 points
(1.44%), to end
at 1664.36 points. Again - no news to speak of;
just an overbought
market with everybody on the same side of the
boat. Within the tech
benchmark, gainers numbered 19, while 77
Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the
day. Volume was tilted 7.4:1 in favour of the
losers with 655.94
million traded in the losers compared to 88.88
million in the winners.
NYSE Volume was super-chunky, with
2.21
billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq
Volume was
reasonable at 1.75 billion shares.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones
Industrial
Average | 10836.53 | -39.06 | -0.36% |
| S&P500 |
1259.92 | -7.4 | -0.58% |
| Nasdaq
Composite | 2222.74 | -29.74 | -1.32%
| Nasdaq100 | 1
664.36 | -24.32 | -1.44% |
| NYSE
Volume | 2.21bn | - | - | <
/tr>
| Nasdaq
Volume | 1.75bn | - | - | <
/tr>
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers"
group fell by
an average of 0.95%; not a single one o them
managed a ain, Notice
though, that Citigroup (the most manipulated
large-cap stock in
existence) held above $49. It seems that the
market's ego-blowjob for
Greenspan is not quite over (which means that
the eventual longer-term
swing high will occur on or about January 10th,
±4 sessions)
- General Electric (GE) -$0.24
(0.67%) to $35.82;
- Citigroup (C)
-$0.20 (0.41%) to $49.17;
- Wal
Mart
(WMT) -$0.31 (0.63%) to
$48.96;
- I.B.M.
(IBM) -$0.61 (0.73%) to
$82.76;
- Intel
(INTC) -$0.60 (2.27%) to
$25.78;
- Cisco
Systems (CSCO) -$0.05 (0.28%) to
$17.47;
- eBay
(EBAY) -$1.32 (2.87%) to
$44.62;
- Fannie Mae
(FNM) -$0.27 (0.57%) to $47.24;
and
- Freddie
Mac (FRE) -$0.11 (0.17%) to
$65.91.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by
2388 to 943, for a
single-day A/D reading of -1445; and Nasdaq
losers exceeded gainers by
2134 to 958. The 10-day moving average of the
A/D line fell to -227.3
on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D
fell to -340.7. The
breadth stats have gone from overcooked to
freezing in a very short
space of time - I will have a look at short
interest and put option
stats on my bellwethers tonight and see if
there's any sign of a
short-squeeze being set up. (Things to look for
if you're doing it
yourself: lots of puts being sold at the bid to
small-lot buyers, and
an increase in short interest on a big-volume,
high-tilt down day like
today).
On the NYSE declining volume was
greater
than volume in advancing issues by 1489.2 to
693.4 million shares; On
the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in
advancing issues by
1364.2 to 346 million shares.
70 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week
highs, and 108
posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq
there were 93 stocks
that hit new 52-week highs, and 73 which fell
to fresh 52-week lows.
| NYSE |
Nasdaq |
| Advancers | 9
43 | 958 |
| Decliners | 2
388 | 2134 |
| Advancing
Volume
(m) | 693.44 | 345.98 |
| Declining
Volume
(m) | 1489.18 | 1364.16 |
| New
Highs | 70 | 93 |
| New
Lows | 108 | 73 |
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility
Index | 11.37 | 0.77 | 7.26%<
/td> |
| CBOE Nasdaq
Volatility
Index | 14.26 | 1.32 | 10.2%<
/td> |
| Equity Put-Call
Ratio | 0.61 | 0 | 0% |
| 10-day
PCR | 0.58 | 0 | 0% |
| SPX-VIX
Ratio | 110.8 | -8.75 | -7.32
% |
Bond Market
Analysis
Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield
on the benchmark 30-year
Treasury bond shedding 0.9 bps to
4.641%.
The middle of the yield curve was mixed:
five year yields rose
to 4.364%, and ten-year yields fell to
4.442%.
Spreads between short-dated (2-yr)
Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds of
similar maturity profiles
were 3.0 bps tighter at 12.0 basis points;
spreads between longer dated
Treasuries and their corporate AAA counterparts
fell to 69.0 bps for
10-year AAA, and 95.5 bps for 20-years.
Credit spreads (spreads between
corporate
bonds of the same maturity profile but
different creditworthiness) were
mixed with the AAA-A spread on 20-years 11.0
bps wider at 27.0 basis
points and the 10-year AAA-A closing to
zero.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk
(yld) | 3.86 | 0.028 | 0.73%<
/td> |
| UST 2Y
(yld) | 4.34 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 5Y
(yld) | 4.364 | 0.005 | 0.11%
|
| UST 10Y
(yld) | 4.442 | -0.006 | -0.1
3% |
| UST 30Y
(yld) | 4.641 | -0.009 | -0.1
9% |
The Banks Index
lost 0.87 points (0.82%), at 104.92; within the
index,
- US Bancorp (USB)
-$0.54 (1.75%) to $30.38;
- State
Street
(STT) -$1.01 (1.73%) to
$57.37;
- National
City Corp (NCC) -$0.52 (1.49%) to
$34.30;
- Golden
West Financial (GDW) -$0.96 (1.42%) to
$66.66; and
- Fifth
Third Bancorp (FITB) -$0.55 (1.39%) to
$38.89.
The Broker-dealer Index declined 1.64
points (0.83%), at 195.4; the ticket
clippers lined
up as follows -
- Charles
Schwab
(SCH) -$0.41 (2.72%) to $14.68;
- Bear
Stearns (BSC) -$2.37 (2.02%) to
$115.20;
- Lehman
Brothers (LEH) -$1.93 (1.5%) to
$127.06;
- Goldman
Sachs (GS) -$1.37 (1.08%) to $125.13;
and
- E*Trade
(ET) -$0.17 (0.8%) to $21.05.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor)
index lost
11.39 points (2.3%), to 483.9
- Teradyne (TER) -$0.62 (4.19%) to
$14.16;
- Broadcom (BRCM) -$2.01
(4.1%) to $47.01;
- Xilinx (XLNX)
-$0.96 (3.53%) to $26.23;
- Texas
Instruments
(TXN) -$1.04 (3.14%) to $32.03;
and
- Maxim
Integrated (MXIM) -$1.00 (2.66%) to
$36.63.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold rose $0.2 (0.04%) to close at
$506.10
per ounce, although it spent a good part of the
session above $510 and
couldn't hold that level.
The Gold
Bugs
Index lost 1.44 points (0.55%), closing at
258.52
- Golden
Star (GSS) -$0.11 (4.58%) to
$2.29;
- Coeur
d'Alene (CDE) -$0.13 (3.21%) to
$3.92;
- Glamis
Gold (GLG) -$0.51 (2.03%) to
$24.64;
- Goldcorp
(GG) -$0.39 (1.95%) to $19.65;
and
- Hecla
Mining (HL) -$0.07 (1.93%) to
$3.55.
Silver rose $0.05 (0.52%) to close at
$8.65
per ounce.
The Gold and Silver
Index (XAU) lost 1.16 points (0.95%), to
121.2 points.
- Goldcorp
(GG) -$0.39 (1.95%) to
$19.65;
- Placer Dome
(PDG) -$0.42 (1.87%) to
$22.06;
- Anglogold
Ashanti (AU) -$0.81 (1.71%) to $46.62;
and
- Freeport
McMoran (FCX) -$0.80 (1.49%) to
$53.00.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 506.10
| 0.20 | 0.04% |
| Silver | 8.65
| 0.05 | 0.52% |
| PHLX Gold and
Silver
Index | 121.2 | -1.16 | -0.95
% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS
Index | 258.52 | -1.44 | -0.5
5% |
Oil Market
Oil lost some more ground, shedding
$0.72
per barrel, closing at $57.34 per barrel and
trading under $57 during
the session. Natural
Gas had a bounce (not surprising since
it had absolutely
cratered in the last three sessions), but the
lack of cold weather in
the NorthEast is going to be a real cramp on
the subsets of the Energy
complex that get used for hoe heating (Propane,
NatGas, and Heating
Oil).
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI)
shed 6.34 points (0.63%), closing at
993.3
- Repsol
YPF (REP) -$0.67 (2.23%) to
$29.31;
- ChevronTexaco
(CVX) -$0.76 (1.32%) to $56.75;
and
- Sunoco
(SUN) -$0.98 (1.24%) to $78.37.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index
dipped
2.46 points (1.33%), to
182.37
- Smith
International (SII) -$1.02 (2.69%) to
$36.84;
- Global
Industries (GLBL) -$0.32 (2.66%) to $11.70;
and
- National
Oilwells/Varco (NOV) -$1.40 (2.2%) to
$62.17.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters
CRB | 344.61 | 1.77 | 0.52% |
| Crude Oil Light
Sweet | 57.34 | -0.72 | -1.24
% |
| Heating
Oil | 1.7033 | -0.03 | -1.66%
|
| Natural
Gas | 14.043 | 0.41 | 3.01% |
| Unleaded
Gas | 1.5269 | -0.04 | -2.68%
|
| AMEX Oil
Index | 993.3 | -6.34 | -0.63
% |
| Oil Service
Index | 182.37 | -2.46 | -1.3
3% |
Currency
Markets
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar
Index | 89.86 | 0.14 | 0.16%<
/td> |
| Euro | 1.2002
| -0.0014 | -0.12% |
| Yen | 116.085
| 0.405 | 0.35% |
| Sterling | 1.
7622 | -0.0101 | -0.57% |
| Australian
Dollar | 0.7398 | -0.0048 | -
0.64% |
| Swiss
Franc | 1.2929 | 0.0029 | 0.2
2% |
| Canadian
Dollar | 0.8549 | -0.0073 | -
0.85% |
