Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Saturday, April 29, 2006

TootRant: Oh My, Don't That Feel Jest Great?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well, the SPI trade (outlined in an earlier post) panned out just bloody perfectly, with SPISpyers who held 3 contracts or more pocketing almost 100 SPI points in a little under 2 sessions.

Norway has been interesting, although so far we have not ventured far from the hotel (the Holmkollen Park Hotel Rice, which is the best hotel in Oslo).

It turns out that there were more Australians in the Energy Lawyers Group meeting, than any other nationality; a bloke originally from Yass (who is now a partner with an Irish firm) helped me fly the Australian flag by setting up a 'Convicts Corner' at each meal table.

The Nordic folks (the Danes, Swedes, and Norwegians) have been terrific hosts, and everyone else (Greeks, Italians, Latvians, Swiss, Dutch, Belgian and so on) have also been very nice to The Lovely and I. Odd that you could collect that many lawyers in one hotel and hot wind up with someone getting a blood nose... but then again there were no Americans...

We went to visit StatNet - the Norwegian electricity operator - and got to see how electricity supply/demand auctions are performed, as well as getting a guided tour of the control room which showed all the interconnectors within the entire NordPool power grid. Very interesting, and the 'main' dinner (last night) was one of the nicest meals we have eaten since we got to Europe... everything except the dessert was Norwegian delicacy (including reindeer for the main course) and it was brilliant.

Brilliant - like the short from 5340 the other day...

Those of you who want to thank me, just say 'Takk vor shist' (pronounced 'Tuck fur sist')... which, along with "Jeg snakker ikke norkse" (I speak no Norwegian) are the only two Norwegian phrases I know...

Thursday, April 27, 2006

SPIRant: Yet Another Winner...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

As usual, your friendly SPISpy extracted gobbets of yummy value by tagging a nice intraday reversal - providing an opportunity for even the most thinly-capitalised trader to recoup moret han half the subscription fee in less than a session.

Here's what went out pre-market...

Greetings all.

Had some malware trouble, and after I cleaned that up I waited for three consecutive 'all clear' signals (after each virus definition update). Now that there is now no risk of transmitting anything nasty to your PC's, "On y va" (here we go)...

SPI should pop in the first half hour; shorting above 5340 after the first half hour is the go.

Targets: 5, 10, open.

For those trading more than 3 this will probably be the one where the last unit gets held for most of the rest of the first half of the year (trading will probably have a shorting bias from now until July - today will tell). Bernanke can waffle all he likes tonight - the US is falling over.
Regards,

SPISpy.

Now I would call that decent - the session top was 5343 set seconds before 11:00 a.m. Sydney time... and the market is currently at 5310.

And of course the cause of the reversal was yet another lovely little CCI divergence...

FranceRant: Normal Service Resumes Monday...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The South of France. It's a phrase which, is evocative for many people. Usually, those people are thinking 'Provence', which in the ordinary course of events I wouldn't go near with a ten foot pole. Who wants to be up to their armpits in Englishmen and Yanks?

OK, I confess... during the Easter week we touched (and yes, even penetrated) Provence - but to the smallest extent possible. The aim of the game was to go on a little 'pelerinage' to Montsegur - also known as the Cathar Masada. The carnage that transpired there represented the culmination of the Albigenisian Crusade, where Rome - threatened by a sect that called for the abandonment of the garish trappings favoured by Roman clergy - launched a campaign of wanton destruction on the Cathari which lasted almost half a century and was marked by the invention of a phrase which stands in infamy .

I refer to the famed utterance of a supposed man of faith - the papal legate Arnaud Amaury, who was asked how the Crusaders would be able to tell the Catholics from the Cathars during the seige of Beziers in 1209.

You see, the townspeople had refused to hand the local Cathars over to the Crusaders, fearing (rightly) that these folk who lived up to the loftiest ideals would be killed without mercy.

Amaury told the Crusaders to take the town; the commanders asked how to tell which of the people were heretics. Amaury, in a display of exactly what was (and is) wrong with Catholic hierarchy, said this:

"Caedite eos! Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius"

That is: "Kill them all! The Lord will know his own". This was later adapted (during VietNam) to "Kill 'em all - let God sort 'em out."

Thus absolved by a perverted legate's warped view of 'just war' doctrine, the Crusaders descended on Beziers and massacred almost 20,000 people - of which only about 500 were Cathars. Sounds a lot like the latest 'just war' - the wanton slaughter of a couple of hundred thousand Iraqis following a 10-year investiture of their country which killed another million or so.

Anyhow... the final Cathar stronghold was a castle at Montsegur. Interestingly, the castle during the Cathar period had no 'arrow loops' (the holes out of which archers could take aim and fire on anybody positioned below); true to their faith, the Cathars wanted a place of refuge rather than somewhere to make a military stand.

In the end, the final two forts that fell were Montsegur and a small semi-fortified village at Queribus. But there are several important places which featured in the Cathar Crusade - a Bush-Doctrine-like series of massacres by the leadership of a church which was supposedly founded based on principles laid out by the Prince of Peace).. And we just visited pretty much all of them (which of necessity required a small incursion into Provence).

The list is one redolent with history -

Albi
Beziers
Carcassonne.
Castres
Montsegur
Fanjeaux
Mirepoix
Castelnaudaray (now also home to the Foreign Legion)
Minerve
Avignon

There was something interesting that linked Fanjeaux and Carcassonne: a thing of which I had not been aware, but which set my nerve ends tingling.

The first was a little house in Fanjeaux which has a plaque on its outside which reads

Saint Dominiqve habita ici de 1206 à 1213 (click to see the plaque)
Even if you've got no French, you can probably work out that this says "St Dominique lived here between 1206 and 1213". Now at that time, Fanjeaux was a hotbed of Catharism; it crossed my mind that at the very least, the founder of the Dominicans must have been broadly sympathetic to the Cathar doctrine (there isn't any evidence that he anathemised them during the period he lived in Fanjeaux, in any case.

The second interesting little thing was a plaque inside the cathedral at Carcassonne (the one inside the castle walls). Now Carcassonne was the headquarters of Raymond-Roger de Trencavel (who along with Raymond of Toulouse was a staunch supporter of the Cathars), and fell to the Crusaders in 1209 (August 15, but who's counting) when the aforementioned Raymond-Roger was taken prisoner by the Catholics while under a truce. (Nice mob, the Micks, don't ya think? All the blather about a Prince of Peace, all that Death-cult stuff, and they won't honour a truce...).

But back to the second interesting thing: another  plaque... this one says

Fondateur des Freres Precheurs Saint Dominique a preche la careme en cette eglise en 1213 (click to see the plaque).

Again, it doesn't take a PhD in Frogology to work out that this says "Founder of the Preaching Friars St Dominique preached the careme in this church in 1213".. The careme is a sermon which is trotted out for the forty days leading up to 'Paques' (Easter).  Odd that we happened to be in the region during Easter week (which meant that most of the bloody bakers were closed).

But back to the story...

By 1213, Carcassonne had fallen, the perfecti had been massacred (along with a dozen thousand 'collateral damagees') and Simon de Montfort (who is rotting in Hell as I type this) was ravaging the area around Toulouse. So how come St Dominique wasn't in a bit of trub (since he seems to have constantly been around and about the Cathar-oriented area)? How come he wasn't at least investigated (i.e., hauled before the Inquisition)? Was he a St Snitch?

No matter - it's eight hundred years ago and even a few of the locals are prepared to let bygones be bygones. (Not me).

For me, the week had several high points - the climb up Montsegur was hard as buggery (even The Lovely was short of breath), and the little campsite westayed at (le Mathibot) was sensational. The people who run it are a very nice Belgian couple who made us feel very welcome; they have a few cats, a couple of dogs, and a couple of ponies. the campsite is in a stunning valley, and if you're a trudger you can walk all the way to Montsegur through forest. (We didn't - it's a two and a half hour walk, and a 30 minute climb at the end of it... I piked).

Fanjeaux was delightful - a village perched on top of a hill, which looks like is was frozen in amber in the middle of the 14th century. (Well, apart from the cars).

Minerve was equally well-preserved, but was visually much more stunning. It clings to an island in the middle of a gorge, with stone houses that look like the will lose their grip on the gorge any second. The river has carved out a hole which runs under the entire town. Magnificent. Sadly we couldn't find the campsite and so we drove to a town whose name I will not even mention (that's how shit Montpellier is),

Oops - I mentioned it. Don't go there - ever. And change the words to the old poem "Come friendly bombs' and change the target from Slough to Montpellier. 95% of the roads are one-way, and the signage is absolutely AWFUL.

Nimes: avoid the Arene (the Coliseum). It's a rip-off. They have turned it into a "bullfighting" ring. I use quotes because it's not bullfighting; it's a one-sided slaughter in which a bull the size of a large Newfoundland is systematically tortured half to death by four guys on horseback... whereupon some primped up dago comes out and prances around like a failed Isidora Duncan student.

Want to impress me, Manuel? Don't trim the horns; don't use picadors to sever the animal's neck muscles; get a decent sized bull (at LEAST the size of a dairy cow); and try and ride it. I think "bullfighting" is a little bit gay, with all those sequins and ballet shoes. Watch an episode of Bullriders Only" on Fox Sports (it's on late) to see a genuine duel between man and beast; real, BIG bulls are the celebrities, and they get to WIN every now and then (in fact more often than not the bull wins). It's one things the Yanks have done right - and the good bulls know their job (get the little pink thing off my back) and once they get the guy thrown they just settle down and look for some hay or a nice heifer.

Of course there is no way the effeminate little dickwads that torture teensy little mini-bulls would ever be able to ride a great bull like Chainsaw or Dogface the Canine Bovine (no, I ahve not made those names up - they are two "All Star Bulls"). Matadors are girly wankers. Still, the peasants get off on that sort of crap - witness how the Yanks react when their 'mighty' military kicks the shit out of a third rate enemy...

But back to the conquest of France (by the way, nobody even bothered to show up to surrender to my advancing horde).

Avignon was stunning - we ate dinner at a little restaurant called Cafe Vert; the waiter was a delightful man, the food brilliant (I had a chicken tajine that was magnificent). The campsite was outside the walls and across the river, but still only about ten minute's walk.

One thing to avoid in Avignon is the exhibition of 14th-15th century art in the Petit Palais. I've never liked the art of the Middle Ages - to me it looks badly executed and basically shit. Also, I don't like pictures that make Jesus look Norwegian or Swedish - the bloke was a bloody Palestinian, for God's sake.

As you have worked out by the constant reference to campsites, we like camping. Dickheads don't like camping.

It was an interesting week, but being away from Julien's baguettes was almost as much as I could bear. Juliens (which is two doors down from our Paris place) is the best bread I have ever tasted - even better than the potato bread from the Warrandyte Bakery.

As if 2500km in five days wasn't enough, last Friday I drove all the way to Frankfurt to collect the cats and bring them to the place we have got in the country outside Paris (here is a picture of that, as well).

Driving to Germany (leaving at 3:30 a.m., and arriving back home at 10:00 p.m.) is made easy by the fact that there are no border controls anymore (hence no need to worry that I will not be allowed to return).

And tomorrow night, I am off to Oslo until Saturday night (The Lovely is presenting a paper to a conference of Energy lawyers... I am going along for the free food, flights and lodgings, and keeping my fingers crossed that they let me back into France). So this week is a write-off (although there's a trade brewing which might be triggered during the Oz day session). The first half of the week was killed as a result of malware on my main machine (191 pieces thereof, which arrived like a theif in the night and screwed up four months' work). You will never get me to believe that these things are caused by teenage lads; since the invention of the internet they are too busy masturbating themselves blind over internet porn. No, I smell the hand of government - western governments HATE the internet because it is undermining their power over their sheeple.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

TootRant: Subscriber Stuff is Back...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I've finally sorted out everything I need to in order to be happy to churn out gobs of brilliance; today's offering shows that although I'm still a tad on the rusty side.

The absolute bulk of this game is about 'fading' the nuffnuffs (as you all know by now). As such, every decision you makehas to begin with the idea "What would a nuffnuff do right now?".

That said, there is also an extent to which the market runs just a wee bit further than you would think (especially when you're shaking out the cobwebs).

Take today's US session - which bagged its target and thus continues the fine post-November-21-2005 tradition.

The initial post went like this:

I know it's late there in Oz, but frankly the S&P deserves a bounce starting now. ES06H currently 1312, having already formed a little divergence on the prior 15-min bar. Long targets just a single point on all contracts. No reversal.
Sorry for the lack of a Condition Table, but this trade just leapt out.
And Yep... I'm back.
Regards,

GT. (In French, 'GT' is pronounced "ZhayTay", and means either "I Was" ('j'etais') or "thrown" ('jetee'). But enough of that...

And bugger me if the thing didn't swoon just a little further in order for the Dow to test 11225 (and break it by a tick or two in the YM futures, just to lure the nuffnuffs short one last time).

Here's the picture that is worth a thousand or so words, which helps explain the entry... a clear CCI divergence with and oversold %R...

ES06H Intraday chartS&P500 Futures Intraday Chart - Rant Entry

As I pointed out above, the thing then swooned, ruining my bloody risk-return calcs (but still, picking the intraday bottom to within two points was not bad)... and here is how it panned out:

ES06H Intraday chartS&P500 Futures Intraday Chart - Rant Exit

The e-mail to effect the entry [typo alert... should read EXIT, not entry] looked like this:

1213.25 has traded, thus all exits can be deemed to have succeeded.
Unfortunately I pressed 'Send' about fifteen seconds too early on the entry - otherwise a better entry was possible (in fact entering long at 1312 was nigh on impossible - I don't think it got back to that level until about five minutes ago).
Still, a point is a point, and there will be plenty of those this year. If you're still long, you're a brave little duck, but today you'll probably do alright.
Regards,

GT.

At the moment, those who stayed long are looking smarter than the average Horse (that's my old nickname from my mate Bogey)... SPs are cufrrently 1317, but only the first point (the target) goes into the RantRecord.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

Now It Gets Interesting...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

So let's tick the list items one by one...

High speed internet? Check. (Check - and how - 24Mbits/sec makes downloading episodes of "Stargate Atlantis" a breeze!)

Operational PC? Check. (It's a piece of crap, but for the moment ça suffice).

Cable TV with 100 channels, all of which are crap? Check.

More importantly (from a selfish point of view) we now have Residential Parking in the 7th arrondissement. If there'a anything that says "I am not a tourist" it is having one of hose little yellow cards in your window So while SUV-driving dills pay €2 an hour to park, us residents (dare I say, us Parisians) pay €2.50 per week.

I have still got to install the old RantDrives (the HDDs from my old PC) to complete the setup of this manky old PIII-500 that I picked up for €45 - we won't get a decent machine until the next 10% fall in Dell.s TV offer comes into effect. At present it's €499 for a PIII-3GHz machine with 512Mb RAM, an 80 Gb HDD and a 19" TFT screen. In a month or so that will fall again, and then we will be in like Flynn (who apparently whoever Flynn was, he was 'in' quite often and with some alacrity).

Oddly though, the fact that we changed our 'abonnement' from FranceTelecom to 'freebox' means that our phone line no longer works (we had it operational for a whole 48 hours). I am hoping that it is jsut a hiatus until the new 'freephone' line number comes into effect, which will probably be Monday.

Monday, it begins... we will be back into full swing. I get an ache in the loins just thinking about it...