Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Saturday, October 28, 2006

NonRant: There's a Difference...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

There are two ways that a bad outcome can arise directly from a decision - without the interference of the outside world.

The first way, is simply that "Shit happens".

The second way, is that the decision itself is badly thought-through.

Think of it this way.

You're playing Minesweeper. There are only two ways you can lose

(1) Shit happens. You wind up in a situation where there is no "information content" left, and you're forced to make a guess between equally-likely alternatives. you pick the wrong square. Tough luck, but... shit happens.

(2) By ignoring information content. That is, you can see - if you bother to look - that one of the exposed squares is marked with a "2", and if you bothered to look you've just right-clicked on the THIRD unclicked cell in the environs of the cell marked "2". Boom... but it's your fault, you schmuck.

That second instance is NOT the result of 'Shit happens'. It is the result of negligence... laziness... not paying attention... or perhaps deliberate and wilful self-destructive behaviour. Call it what you will. I call it "the Bush Doctrine".

To my way of thinking, there is no excuse for the second scenario. That is, I believe that it behoves us to extract as much as we can from the information content we are given, and the result is that bad outcomes are simply the result of things that cannot be foreseen based on the information in the possession of the decision-maker (no, not ""The Decider") at the time of the decision.

more on this later. I am basically just wasting time while some images upload to MediaMax...

Friday, October 27, 2006

nonRant: Heads Up, Citizens. He Is Risen...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Bet you were worried that I was going to blather on about Jeebus or something, weren't you? Come on... were both smarter than that!

You miss things. Things that some folks might not think are important.

  • Watching Alan Didak give the man on the mark the sniff, and then slot it from just inside 50 (never from the wrong pocket though - Malthouse is too good a coach for that, since he knows Didal has no right foot).
  • Sausage rolls. Sure, there's only about 4 molecules of actual meat in them, but what is better while wawtching the aforementioend Didak?
  • Pies. That's what. And not the beloved Carringbush - the good old Aussie maggot-bag. No sauce (I'm not a girl).
  • Dennis Bloody Commetti (or, more accurately, Mav's impression of Commetti)... "Buckley now... moving through the half-forward line... right foot looking for Didak... centimetre perfect. Didak... marks in front of (whoever). Didak now..."
I could go on, but I can see you're bored.

One thing I have missed recently (for reasons known only to me and the staff at the Legion headquarters at Castelnaudaray) is blathering away on this "blog" thingy. My Excel macros still work, as I discovered when I tried to fire them up today. And with US and global "investors" showing all the investment selectivity of an infantry battalion on the march,  and with the helocopter Fed pumping in good-sized gobs of repurchase dough every session, I reckon it's time to uncork the full bottle again. Maybe tomorrow - you will have to check back.

Then again, maybe I won't.

Maybe tomorrow I will just post those photos of the house, and the swans, and the downstairs fireplace. I've mentioned the downstairs fireplace before - which may seem odd, but it impressed the beJeebus out of me. It is over 6-foot high and 8-foot wide and is a single piece of basalt. It was carved into its current shape shortly before Columbus discovered the Americas.

Market wise, the thing is obviously expecting a future something like Richard Perle was expecting in Baghdad after the US invaded. Rose petals strewn in one's path, free blowijobs for anyone with dual loyalties... that sort of thing.

We are at a top of some significance. I have seen folks - folks that I respect, not sell-side shills - who think the Dow is going all the way to 13043. As I said, I have some respect for them (I say this because I don't want to be labelled anti-Khazar - which is what you should properly be called if you don't like Eastern-European riff-raff who call themselves Semites).

But they're wrong (the Dow 13000ers)  - at least for now. The Dow will hit its high within 2 sessions of today.

It's got nothing to do with the US elections, although the flood of dough from the Fed is certainly part of their "incumbent friendly" world view. Like all whores, they will get on their knees in front wof whoever is paying the bills at the time. Wall Street is the same - as the post-FOMC ramp always tells us. However the Street's use of the repo dough to goose markets is more Pavlovian - it has nothing to do with trying to please anybody in any political sense. Sure, they will fellate any political powebroker if it means an extra dollar for them, but they don't do it out of loyalty to one or other Party.. .all they care about is that the person they are fellating is in POWER.

Recent news has been itneresting.

So "values" Republicans are teen-baiting poofters. Are you seriously shocked? If so, all I can say is... wait until someone wrotes the "tell all" about Bush and Blair. You just KNOW someone's got the photos, which is why Shrubbie and BLiar do exactly what they're told. And don't be shocked if poor old Ruddock keeps doing exactly what his handlers would like - I am sure that there are photos and videos (not of him) that he would prefer weren't published.

But I digress. often. All the time, in fact.