OzRant: WHO Predicted a Rally? Oh... Yes... ME.

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Sheesh...Never let it be said that Hope does not spring eternal. Frankly, the stampede into stocks today is vaguely ludicrous - but it makes for a nice jumping-off point for the new Rant season. I am typing this within the hated WinXP partition of the RantBox - but I hope that this will be the last time I need to do so.

The ticket-clipping community would be very hugely relieved at the massive influx of ticket-clippings that they will have connected today - it will save them the embarrassment of having to send their new leased hairdresser-BMWs back to the dealers.

But ask yourself - This seemingly out-of-the-blue lurch upwards... Was it predictable?

You bet your sweet tuches it was. In fact it was predicted by me last week in the heads-up announcing the return to normal rants-mission. I'm not just good-looking, y'know.

If you thought that today was the start of something big, you were right. It's not the start of Days of Wine and Roses, however. It is the beginning of the end of a generational market, and the terminal phase of Life As We Know It. That is, today is not the first day of the next leg up; if one was to short today and ride the tiger, one would retire mind-bogglingly rich within a year. The next week or so would give one pause for thought (since there might be some follow through once tomorrow's pullback is finished), but for position types with moderately deep pockets this is the best shorting opportunity since May, and the odds of a significant new high in ANY of the global equities markets is as near to zero as makes no odds.

OK. That's the colours nailed to the mast (although the last shorting opportunity I identified (back in February) turned out to be VERY short term).

Let's move to the generated bits...

 Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - surged a whopping 256.20 points (4.52%), finishing at 5926.50 points. At first I thought it was a cockup in the RantSheet - it has been so long since they were fired in anger. But nope, there it was.  The Ordinaires hit an intraday high of 5926.50 at the closing bell, just exceeding the intraday high set just after 1:30 p.m.; it was primarily a morning surge - the overwhelming bulk of the day's rise happened in the first 2 hours of trade. The low was 5670.3 - set at the open... Duh.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 2.11 billion units, 70.7% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 242 rose while 25 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 7.6:1, with 532.93million shares traded in gainers while 69.78million shares traded in the day's losers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 261.60 points (4.61%), finishing at 5932.60 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 142.00 points (4.65%), finishing at 3195.50 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and 1 loser (Telstra). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 107.82 million shares, while volume in the losers totaled 54.64m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$3.020 (10.98%) to $30.520 on volume of 5.67m shares;
• Alumina (AWC), +$0.570 (9.58%) to $6.520 on volume of 8.56m shares;
• Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$6.010 (9.28%) to $70.750 on volume of 4.67m shares;
• BHP Billiton (BHP), +$2.460 (7.58%) to $34.900 on volume of 26.01m shares; and
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.660 (7.18%) to $9.850 on volume of 7.02m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.050 (1.18%) to $4.190 on volume of 54.64m shares;

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 150.50 points (4.41%), finishing at 3563.20 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Silex Systems (SLX), +$1.130 (17.88%) to $7.450 on volume of 411,000 shares;
• Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.120 (13.95%) to $0.980 on volume of 3.48m shares; and
• Globe International (GLB), +$0.130 (12.38%) to $1.180 on volume of 6,000 shares; and
• Mincor Resources (MCR), +$0.320 (12.03%) to $2.980 on volume of 1.04m shares; and
• Mosaic Oil (MOS), +$0.015 (12%) to $0.140 on volume of 2.52m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• ERG (ERG), -$0.010 (7.69%) to $0.120 on volume of 2.05m shares;
• Cellestis (CST), -$0.180 (7.26%) to $2.300 on volume of 86,000 shares; and
• Capral Aluminium (CAA), -$0.030 (6%) to $0.470 on volume of 257,000 shares; and
• Novogen (NRT), -$0.095 (5.01%) to $1.800 on volume of 57,000 shares; and
• G.U.D. Holdings (GUD), -$0.450 (4.4%) to $9.780 on volume of 1.09m shares.

Index Changes

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	5926.5	256.2	4.52%	631.37m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	3195.5	142	4.65%	0
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	5775.3	248.8	4.5%	275.77m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	4796	211.4	4.61%	416.4m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	5932.6	261.6	4.61%	517.46m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	5941.3	260.6	4.59%	1495.97m
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	5991.2	297.5	5.23%	375.51m
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	3563.2	150.5	4.41%	176.97m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

As might be expected on a day when idiotic optimism trumped reason, the breadth was tilted enormously in favour of advancing stocks. This is not a 'sigh of relief' as a result of the disgusting display of Corporate Welfare distributd by Central Banks last week - this is a hit from the Crack Pipe of Hope. If EVER you hear some sharp-suited ticket-clipper complaining about taxation being used to fund the lifestyles of the indolent welfare-exploiting masses, simply refer to this period of history as one in which the financial classes were exculpated from the consequences of their (predictable) stupid decisions... by Government handouts. Then spit on him annd give him a good dose of Rochambeau (i.e., a good kick "Squwayah in da Nertz" as Cartmann might once have said). Parasites - I would rather give tax money to the underprivileged ten times a week, than give handouts to the scum who are so full of their own self-importance that they seriously think that the OUGHT to have their arss rescued from the fire.

Market Breadth

	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	18	78	141	242	119	1124
Declines	1	3	8	25	19	212
Advancing Volume	107.82m	351.4m	437.94m	532.93	143.16	1897.9
Declining Volume	54.64m	58.77m	58.61m	69.78	9.1	136.6

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 7.10% to 12499.40 points. The sector was helped by

• Oxiana (OXR), +$0.380 (12.97%) to $3.310 on volume of 20.26m shares;
• Zinifex (ZFX), +$1.720 (11.72%) to $16.400 on volume of 6.98m shares;
• Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.510 (11.09%) to $5.110 on volume of 2.08m shares;
• Great Southern Plantations (GTP), +$0.200 (9.8%) to $2.240 on volume of 1.11m shares; and
• Alumina (AWC), +$0.570 (9.58%) to $6.520 on volume of 8.56m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 6.10% to 12906.30 points. The sector leaders were -

• Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.280 (10.49%) to $2.950 on volume of 1.44m shares;
• Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.150 (9.68%) to $1.700 on volume of 720,000 shares;
• Caltex Australia (CTX), +$1.810 (8.71%) to $22.580 on volume of 714,000 shares;
• Worleyparsons (WOR), +$2.280 (7.89%) to $31.180 on volume of 1.18m shares; and
• Oil Search (OSH), +$0.200 (6.25%) to $3.400 on volume of 9.14m shares.

The bronze today went toXXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 5.15% to 7061.90 points. The sector was led by

• Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.460 (11.27%) to $4.540 on volume of 2.3m shares;
• QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$3.020 (10.98%) to $30.520 on volume of 5.67m shares;
• Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$6.010 (9.28%) to $70.750 on volume of 4.67m shares;
• Bank Of Queensland (BOQ), +$1.180 (7.22%) to $17.530 on volume of 204,000 shares; and
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.660 (7.18%) to $9.850 on volume of 7.02m shares.

The worst-performed sector today - the only sector which registered a deline - was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 1.02% to 1478.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by

• Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.050 (1.18%) to $4.190 on volume of 54.64m shares; and
• Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.030 (0.85%) to $3.510 on volume of 2.54m shares.

Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XMJ	Materials	12499.4	828.1	7.1%	114.98m
XEJ	Energy	12906.3	741.7	6.1%	27.72m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	7061.9	345.9	5.15%	71.65m
XIJ	Information Technology	572.6	25.5	4.66%	4.71m
XHJ	Healthcare	8358.9	343.4	4.28%	9.61m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	7716.4	266.2	3.57%	17.17m
XNJ	Industrials	6654.4	211.9	3.29%	51.3m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2699.4	81.3	3.11%	41.99m
XUJ	Utilities	7275.3	211.1	2.99%	17.18m
XPJ	Property Trusts	2251.9	53.3	2.42%	99.9m
XFJ	Financials	6789.5	294.7	0%	164.89m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1478.6	-15.3	-1.02%	57.18m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra Corporation	4.19	-0.05	-1.18%	54.64m
BHP	BHP Billiton	34.9	2.46	7.58%	26.01m
ADY	Admiralty Resources.	0.35	0.07	25.45%	23.05m
OXR	Oxiana	3.31	0.38	12.97%	20.26m
WMT	Western Metals	0.16	0.02	10.71%	18.09m
SDL	Sundance Resources	0.4	0	0%	15.99m

All Ords Percentage Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SLX	Silex Systems	7.45	1.13	17.88%	411203
CBH	CBH Resources	0.51	0.08	17.44%	4.99m
CNT	Centamin Egypt	1.1	0.14	14.58%	202596
MND	Monadelphous Group	13.29	1.69	14.57%	328764
LYC	Lynas Corporation	0.98	0.12	13.95%	3.48m

All Ords Percentage Decliners

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ERG	ERG	0.12	-0.01	-7.69%	2.05m
CST	Cellestis	2.3	-0.18	-7.26%	85532
CAA	Capral Aluminium	0.47	-0.03	-6%	256888
TRU	Trust Company Of Australia	11.1	-0.6	-5.13%	24916
NRT	Novogen	1.8	-0.1	-5.01%	57406

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3982.375	88.03	2.26%	22.7m
Japan	Nikkei 225	15732.48	458.8	3%	-na-
Korea	KOSPI	1731.27	93.2	5.69%	363826
Singapore	Straits Times	3307.79	177.08	5.66%	-na-
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	21384.67	997.54	4.89%	791.64m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	1191.55	-16.06	-1.33%	0

NonRant: Our Daily Pain...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

OK... So I get all the updates to Ubuntu done and dusted, then I do a welter of security checks, then I activate Tor, then I re-do the checks... all the while forgetting that if I want to use the RantSheets (the Excel macro sheets that generate my lovely tables and he generated portion of the text) I have to use Excel, since OpenOffice Calc doesn't use the same scripting language as Excel).

I had been meaning to 'port' the RantSheet logic across to PHP - after all, the functionality is tailor-made for a cron-job... curl some data, do some calcs, sort and present the results...

But I had never got more than halfway through the porting process.

Still, it's not that big a deal - it just means that I have to be in Excel (in WinXP) for the 20 seconds it takes to do the RantSheet calcs... I'm going to experiment today to see if I can do that inside a VM under Ubuntu. If so, I can take my time with the conversion from Excel sheet/macros to PHP script.

The kickoff for the new season is still Monday, by the way. Tell anyone you know who you suspect of being a Rant reader...

Pain is French for bread...

PrepRant: Jour-J Moins 3

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Ha.So the speed of light is not an immutable limit. Told you so, Einstein.

What IS an immutable limit, is the extent of my patience with this bloody wireless keyboard. For reasons best known to those who developed it, the bloody 'e' key has a habit of double-tapping... in fact it seems that the problem is associated with my middle finger.

No matter. Soon I will have a shiny new replacement QWERTY non-wireless keyboard, and I will thereby also be able to dispense with the annoying Frog-icisms that currently infest my typing life.

For example, if I hit ' and then e, it results in é on my screen. So if I want to type 'exceedingly' (i.e., the word exceedingly in single quotes), I have to hit ' TWICE and then delete one of them, then type exceedingly, then hit '. Otherwise I get éxceedingly'.

Now you might think that it's not often that a fellow wants to type 'exceedingly', and you would be right. But it's ANY word in single quotes that begins with a vowel. That's because the Frogs use 'guillemets' to surround speech. They also use commas in place of decimal points, and decimal points in place of commas as a thousands separator. No wonder they can't win a war by themselves.

This is all by way of explanation that for the first week or so of the new Ranting season, the typography will be even worse than usual.

I am pleased that physics has finally caught up with something I babbled on about while I was still an undergraduate - namely, that it was possible that the observable "Laws" of the universe may actually only be "Rules", and may only apply locally (i.e., may not always have applied, may not apply in the future, and may not apply elsewhere in the universe even now). I don't think many of you realise (although you're clever people, by and large) how much of a paradigm shift is involved if you permit matter to travel faster than light; the universe turns out to be prepared to give us loads of stuff for free.

By the way, I've also long held the view that TIME is also not strictly one-way (Feynman discovered as much when he found that some particles' PRESENT states required them to have foreknowledge of their future states... I will find out which paradox that was and let you know on Monday). There will be constraints, of course... go back and change something, go forward and the ramifications of the change mean that you're no longer in the same 'present'... sensitive dependence on initial conditions and all that. Go back and kill Jesus or Hitler, and it will turn out that someone with a different name did similar stuff at about the same time.

PrepRant: It's ON, Baby...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

So.I've got this brother, right. He is an absolute man-mountain (about 6'7" if he ever stands up straight, and 125kg environs), and - pursuant to that - he has gotten away with pretending to be a big lunk lo these twenty years. He is smarter than about 95% of the people you'll ever meet, but one day when he was in his teens, he discovered that people's expectations dropped if you pretended to be a big likeable lunk. So he figured - like a good old-fashioned profit-maximising individual - 'I can be liked, and not have to "put in" as far as thinking-out-loud is concerned.' And he is liked - I cant think of two people who have a bad word to say about him (excluding our mother when he used to lumber Nanna with the kids).

What is the point of that paragraph, I hear you ask. Simply put, it is that the same optimisation problem (be as happy as you can with as little effort as possible) yields dramatically different results depending on your preferences. Lunk had a preference for being well-thought of with as little intellectual effort as possible... he was not interested in being thought of as a bright kid. His 'big brother' (I am the eldest) has a different preference map, which may or may not be better. A fortiori I think it's better, but I don't live Lunk's life.

OK... this seems to be leading somewhere, I hear you thinking.

Point is, all these poor schlubs who are getting raped by the deliberately induced mortgage meltdown, are not per se dumb or ignorant. Maybe they just thought at some point in their lives... "Y'know what? I think I'll just tune out for a bit and see how things go." I wish George Bush and Phony Blair had done that. Sadly, the sorts of people who do tube out, are 'normal' rather than psychotic suppressed homosexuals (and Bush and Blair are only 'suppressed' as it relates to public proclamation of their preference for bums over girls' bits).

Sure, US markets are sagging irrespective of the massive amounts of dough being pumped in by the Fed (notice how NOW people are starting to watch the repo numbers... four years after I said they mattered for short-term momentum- and todays were all in Agency and mortgage backed for you dolts who don't know how to read them and expected the market to respond to a large repo number).

Sure, people who are new to contrarianism think they've found a new bandwagon to get on ("Credit Crunch and Long-term decline"). Frankly, they can all go fuck themselves. To me they are like the wankers who are anti-war now that Iraq is the biggest fuckup since George Bush's freshman year at Yale. Get in FRONT of the game, you jerkwads.

The next market move will be a move back towards (and possibly exceeding, slightly) the old highs... just to make all these new bearish know-it-all motherfuckers look stupid. Then when they are all in a circle jerking off to the tune of the "We all said Ben Bernanke is a Genius", they will get a new arsehole torn for them. Well, not for them, exactly, because these subhuman pustules take their income in the form of fees off other peoples money... they are not silly enough to believe their own bullshit and back it with their own dough.

Monday is kickoff for the new season. And I am not in the best of moods...

AlertRant: Heads Up...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Now I know youse all are vaguely aware of the vast pile of shit into which parts of my life were transformed about a year ago, but let me tell youse... I reckon enough blood has been shed to get the required vermin off'n my back.

That said, a decent chunk of my personal change is, as yet, still beyond my reach. The lifestyle implications of this have been annoying and we none of us like to be annoyed. I'farkins and odzooks, shat hat 'un's blood, and damn me if sha't.

Anyhow - for those who were led to believe that I had taken Blifil's route, or had been led elsewise down the primrose way to th'everlasting bonfire, I say truly: hast learnt nothing lo these ten years? Hast seen your GT labour, rant, fulminate against rascalry, and yet art prepared to entertain that the same imprecations as should accompany a varlet, shouldst apply to GT? Marry come up with your niggardly assertions!

While it is unambiguously true that interdum stultus opportuna loquitur, you will, in the fullness of time, know that your GT is not one to whom it applies (at least, not in this regard, and not in this timeframe).

For now, rest easy (if you can). Soon, tables.

I remain

your most humble servant

GT