USRant: Can't Blame Them For Trying...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Finally, some plans came together in a way that didn't require breath-holding, teeth-grinding or cursing. It wasn't perfect, but it almost can't be by design.

Why is that? You muse.

Well, because under my current archaic setup I get a 'tentative' signal from my platform, and then I have to start preparing the broadcast that tells folks how to position themselves. Ideally, if the tentative signal is a short, I want to be hitting "send" when

• the market is overbought and makes a CCI divergence; AND
• despite that, the thing has one last drive upwards (to enable better entries for clients)

And there's the rub; there is always a risk that the last drive upwards gets legs, and the short entry finds itself at the tail end of a squeeze.

That is not a big deal, normally; because of the 'fade' style of trading, we are never selling breakouts of LOWS... which means that we are never on utterly the wrong side of the trade. In other words, there are always very good odds of getting out breakeven in the event of a bad entry.

Last night is a case in point; that spike at the close sucked met monkey sphincter, but it was not a swing low. It was a bummer that we didn't hold overnight (the target was hit beautifully during the overnight session), but the loss was taken at the close (and more than made up for today - with both the SPI and the S&P registering nice wins).

Today's US signal was at 12:26 NY time (11:26 Chicago time) with the S&P futures at 1385...:

We're waiting for the S&P to give us some long-side lovin' (all we need is an oversold on the intraday %R), but the S&P keeps giving us CCI divergences instead ... a much higher hurdle, but shorts now require a higher hurdle due to the technical setup.

Still, we have to take the thing on; short S&P front month now, looking for 5 points worth of downside on contract 1, and then put a stop 3 points above your entry if you're trading two.

And everything worked out real nice. Another $250 per contract in the portefeuille... and with intraday margins of just $500 per contract with some US futures brokers (and $1000 at the absolute max - if you're paying more than that you're getting hosed), it works out to a nice day at the office, percentage wise.

Just think - you could join the same game; subscriptions for the intraday futures triggers seem high at $150 a month, but when it's all going nicely that represents about fifteen minutes' work.

Economic News

As usual, the economic news was absolutely horrific...

• Durable Goods Orders were significantly weaker than the consensus expectations - the 'mob guess' had punted on a decline of 4.5%, but the actual outcome was -5.3%. That's pretty awful, but we only care about one number... Non-Defence CapEx excluding Aircraft. That number was 'only' a drop of 1.4%: if you're a long time reader, you know that this measure is our forecasting proxy for business capex. (If you add back aircraft and defence, the aggregate was down a staggering 10%). Over the last half year, overall Durable Goods has declined at an annual rate of over 15%.
• New Homes Sales were absolutely shocking, and included a 15% year on year fall in the median house price. Remember those folks who derided anybody who was negative on property? Remember all the shining-eyed folks forking over tens of thousands of dollars for 'investment' seminars that told them to leverage up to their scrota (scrotums? you be the judge) and buy apartments off the plan? They've gone all quiet... like DavNet holders after mid-2002.
• Crude Oil Inventories rose by 3.21 million barrels. There is no consensus estimate for this figure, but the outcome suited yesterday's USRant forecast for Crude. I'll repeat it below for completeness...

Here it is...

Energy futures finally got their close above $100. The next few sessions are make or break. If I had to bet,. I would bet short; the news flow around $100 oil will lure some stale small bulls out of the paddock and into the abbatoir.

And today it fell a percent. Doesn't sound like much, but a $1 fall in the price per barrel translates into a 25% gain on initial margin in the futures market.

Fed Open Market Operations

The Fed only did one repo - an $ 11.5 billion repurchase with only $2.089 billion in Treasury-backed.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +9.36 points (0.07%) to 12694.28 points. The index high for the day was 12756.56, just after midday NY time. The low was 12609.37 at the open.

Major Advancers in the Dow were

• Citigroup (C) +0.77 (3.09%) to 25.72 on volume of 74.8 million units
• IBM (IBM) +2.08 (1.82%) to 116.46 on volume of 11.7 million units
• AIG (AIG) +0.83 (1.61%) to 52.25 on volume of 20.7 million units
• JP Morgan Chase C (JPM) +0.69 (1.58%) to 44.41 on volume of 36 million units
• Alcoa (AA) +0.52 (1.35%) to 39.02 on volume of 12 million units

Major Decliners in the Dow were

• Merck(MRK) -0.95 (2.05%) to 45.44 on volume of 13.2 million units
• McDonald's (MCD) -1.12 (1.98%) to 55.33 on volume of 13 million units
• Verizon Communications (VZ) -0.42 (1.14%) to 36.39 on volume of 11.2 million units
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -0.68 (1.07%) to 63.04 on volume of 8.9 million units
• AT&T. (T) -0.37 (1.04%) to 35.2 on volume of 25.2 million units

Most Traded Dow stocks were

• Intel (INTC) +0.08 (0.39%) to 20.77 on volume of 80.7 million units
• Microsoft (MSFT) -0.12 (0.42%) to 28.26 on volume of 75.1 million units
• Citigroup (C) +0.77 (3.09%) to 25.72 on volume of 74.8 million units
• JP Morgan Chase (JPM) +0.69 (1.58%) to 44.41 on volume of 36 million units
• General Electric (GE) +0.08 (0.24%) to 34.02 on volume of 29.9 million units

The S&P500 Index lost 1.27 points (0.09%) to 1380.02 points; the Nasdaq Composite advanced +8.79 points (0.37%) to 2353.78 points and the Nasdaq100 advanced +8.63 points (0.48%) to 1799.94 points.

The CBOE Volatility Index advanced +0.81 points (3.7%) to 22.71 points and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.81 points (3.12%) to 25.14 points.

NYSE Total Volume totalled 3.86billion units; Nasdaq Total Volume totalled 2.22billion units.

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	12694.28	+9.36	0.07%
S&P500 Index	1380.02	-1.27	-0.09%
Nasdaq Composite	2353.78	+8.79	0.37%
Nasdaq100	1799.94	+8.63	0.48%
CBOE Volatility Index	22.71	+0.81	3.7%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index	25.14	-0.81	-3.12%
NYSE Total Volume	3.86bn	-	-
Nasdaq Total Volume	2.22bn	-	-

Precious Metals

Precious metals futures advanced as follows -

Precious Metal Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	962.7	+13.8	1.45
Silver	1931.0	+59.0	3.15
Platinum	2130.0	-25.9	-1.2
Palladium	549.85	+13.50	2.52

Energy Complex

Energy futures performed as follows -

Energy Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Crude Oil	99.78	-1.10	-1.09
Heating Oil	2.7522	-0.0377	-1.35
Gasoline RBOB	2.4790	-0.0715	-2.8
Natural Gas	9.040	-0.212	-2.29

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers advanced on average by 1.3%. The fallout occurred as follows:

• General Electric (GE) up $+0.08 (0.24%) to $34.02 on volume of 29.86 million units.
• Citigroup (C) up $+0.77 (3.09%) to $25.72 on volume of 74.77 million units.
• Wal-Mart (WMT) up $+0.03 (0.06%) to $51.43 on volume of 28.17 million units.
• IBM (IBM) up $+2.08 (1.82%) to $116.46 on volume of 11.71 million units.
• Intel (INTC) up $+0.08 (0.39%) to $20.77 on volume of 80.67 million units.
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) up $+0.88 (3.66%) to $24.95 on volume of 87.22 million units.
• Google (GOOG) up $+8.67 (1.87%) to $472.86 on volume of 10.11 million units.
• Fannie Mae (FNM) up $+0.30 (1.11%) to $27.27 on volume of 99.61 million units.
• Freddie Mac (FRE) down $0.12 (0.48%) to $25.09 on volume of 61.53 million units.

Currency Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
U.S. Dollar Index	74.265	-0.525	-0.7
British Pound	1.9819	-0.0020	-0.1
Canadian Dollar	1.0193	-0.0012	-0.12
Japanese Yen	0.9408	+0.0071	0.76
Swiss Franc	0.9415	+0.0115	1.24
Euro FX	1.5111	+0.0150	1
Australian Dollar	0.9379	+0.0068	0.73
New Zealand Dollar	0.81260	-0.0003	-0.04

OzRant: Sighs of Relief...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Boy, this market is getting tough; today's SPISpy managed (yet gain) to do the business for one-lotters, but anybody trading 2 got stopped for pretty much no gain.

The relevant sections of the SPISpy mail (sent at 11:35 a.m. Sydney time:

Short SPI as soon as you get this - targets: 8 points for the first contract, then (for those trading more than 1) place a stop behind our entry and trail it for the second.

The result: one-lotters got their 8 points ($200 per contract, which is 3% or thereabouts of the intraday contract margin ), and 2-lotters took 8 on one contract and almost certainly lost money on the second. But it took an hour; not what I like to see.

With the US markets now having closed above 1360 for two consecutive sessions, we find ourselves now forced to a buying bias for intraday trades - however today's short was buttressed by a bunch of things. Pity (for the two-lot traders) that it didn't develop a bit better. 

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose strongly, registering a gain of 96.7 points (1.68%), finishing at 5842.5 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5845.8 at 3:44 pm, while the low for the day was 5762.3 - set at 10:01 am Sydney time (again, a vestige of the prior close). 

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.4 billion units, just about on a par with its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1398 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 645 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 818.4 million units. 491 stocks fell, and traded contributed 444.6 million shares to aggregate volume.

Of the 475 All Ordinaries components, 264 rose while 152 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.9:1, with 578.97 million shares traded in gainers while 298.09 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - managed a solid gain, adding 101.1 points (1.78%), closing out the session at 5767.2 points.

Name	Close	+/-(%)
All Ordinaries	5842.50	96.70 (1.7%)
ASX 50	5577.40	105.30 (1.9%)
ASX 200	5767.20	101.10 (1.8%)
ASX 300	5770.90	98.80 (1.7%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50	6045.10	82.80 (1.4%)
ASX Small Ordinaries	3430.70	31.60 (0.9%)
ASX 20	3171.30	55.90 (1.8%)
ASX 100	4662.90	84.30 (1.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 55.9 points (1.79%), closing out the session at 3171.3 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 18 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 3 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 153.94 million units; 18 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 129.32 million shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 24.62 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$1.14 (3.79%) to $31.25 on volume of 6.5 million shares;
• AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.30 (3.75%) to $8.30 on volume of 5.2 million shares;
• Brambles Limited (BXB), +$0.30 (2.94%) to $10.50 on volume of 4.5 million shares;
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), +$0.62 (2.71%) to $23.49 on volume of 7.7 million shares; and
• BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), +$1.04 (2.68%) to $39.79 on volume of 11.7 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

• QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), -$1.18 (4.58%) to $24.57 on volume of 16.5 million shares;
• Wesfarmers Limited (WES), -$0.6 (1.46%) to $40.45 on volume of 3.6 million shares; and
• Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.23 (0.76%) to $30.00 on volume of 4.6 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market significantly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 31.6 points (0.93%), closing out the session at 3430.7 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 102 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 70 closed lower for the session.

The 190 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 216.64 million units: volume in the 102 gainers totalling 118.48 million shares, with trade totalling 76.45 million units in the index's 70 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Timbercorp Limited (TIM), +$0.20 (17.24%) to $1.36 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
• Jabiru Metals Limited (JML), +$0.13 (16.67%) to $0.91 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
• Commander Communications Limited (CDR), +$0.02 (10.34%) to $0.16 on volume of 2.1 million shares;
• ABB Grain Limited (ABB), +$0.64 (7.98%) to $8.66 on volume of 701.2 thousand shares; and
• Gunns Limited (GNS), +$0.22 (6.75%) to $3.48 on volume of 2.9 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

• Flexigroup Limited (FXL), -$0.16 (16.58%) to $0.78 on volume of 1.2 million shares;
• AED Oil Limited (AED), -$0.21 (10.24%) to $1.84 on volume of 2.7 million shares;
• Energy Developments Limited (ENE), -$0.28 (8.97%) to $2.84 on volume of 760.5 thousand shares;
• Riversdale Mining Limited (RIV), -$0.64 (8.01%) to $7.35 on volume of 878.6 thousand shares; and
• IBA Health Limited (IBA), -$0.05 (7.81%) to $0.59 on volume of 7.9 million shares.

Index Changes

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	5842.5	96.7	1.68	931.7m
XFL	ASX 50	5577.4	105.3	1.92	302.1m
XJO	ASX 200	5767.2	101.1	1.78	671.9m
XKO	ASX 300	5770.9	98.8	1.74	749.7m
XMD	ASX Mid-Cap 50	6045.1	82.8	1.39	230.9m
XSO	ASX Small Ordinaries	3430.7	31.6	0.93	216.7m
XTL	ASX 20	3171.3	55.9	1.79	153.9m
XTO	ASX 100	4662.9	84.3	1.84	533m

Market Breadth

	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	18	78	134	264	102	645
Declines	3	18	50	151	70	491
Advancing Volume	129.3m	422.8m	510.8m	579m	118.5m	818.4m
Declining Volume	24.6m	83.1m	124.7m	298.1m	76.5m	444.6m

GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Materials (XMJ), which added 370 points (2.47%) to 15367.4 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 142.71 million units; 32 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 105.25 million shares, while the 8 decliners had volume traded totalling 36.35 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Timbercorp Limited (TIM), +$0.20 (17.24%) to $1.36 on volume of 2.5 million shares;
• Gunns Limited (GNS), +$0.22 (6.75%) to $3.48 on volume of 2.9 million shares;
• Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC), +$0.09 (6.67%) to $1.36 on volume of 3 million shares;
• Kagara Zinc Limited (KZL), +$0.32 (6.4%) to $5.32 on volume of 834.1 thousand shares; and
• Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM), +$2.27 (6.38%) to $37.84 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Healthcare (XHJ), which gained 202 points (2.18%) to 9450.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 10.25 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 8.52 million shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 1.74 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Ansell Limited (ANN), +$0.34 (2.72%) to $12.83 on volume of 726.4 thousand shares;
• CSL Limited (CSL), +$1.01 (2.67%) to $38.80 on volume of 1.9 million shares;
• Sonic Healthcare Limited (SHL), +$0.38 (2.65%) to $14.70 on volume of 858.2 thousand shares;
• Healthscope Limited (HSP), +$0.07 (1.4%) to $5.06 on volume of 1.4 million shares; and
• ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.05 (1.12%) to $4.52 on volume of 2 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Energy (XEJ), which climbed 307.9 points (2.06%) to 15241.3 points. The 17 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 41.06 million units; 10 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 26.49 million shares, while the 6 decliners had volume traded totalling 12.56 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Santos Limited (STO), +$0.79 (6.69%) to $12.60 on volume of 5.7 million shares;
• Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited (AWE), +$0.12 (3.42%) to $3.63 on volume of 2.6 million shares;
• Nexus Energy Limited (NXS), +$0.06 (3.24%) to $1.75 on volume of 1.6 million shares;
• Oil Search Limited (OSH), +$0.13 (2.94%) to $4.55 on volume of 6.1 million shares; and
• Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL), +$1.33 (2.38%) to $57.28 on volume of 2.4 million shares.

The only declining index for the session was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which dipped 27.7 points (0.33%) to 8254.5 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 28.98 million units; The 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 9.54 million units, and 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 19.44 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

• Wesfarmers Limited (WES), -$0.6 (1.46%) to $40.45 on volume of 3.6 million shares;
• Woolworths Limited (WOW), -$0.23 (0.76%) to $30.00 on volume of 4.6 million shares; and
• Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (CCL), -$0.03 (0.3%) to $9.88 on volume of 1.4 million shares.

Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XMJ	Materials	15367.4	370	2.47	143m
XHJ	Healthcare	9450.5	202	2.18	10m
XEJ	Energy	15241.3	307.9	2.06	41m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5861.6	116.6	2.03	138m
XNJ	Industrials	5810.4	111.6	1.96	76m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1769.2	31.6	1.82	99m
XIJ	Information Technology	526.4	5.3	1.02	2m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2375.5	19	0.81	51m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1739.4	12.6	0.73	57m
XUJ	Utilities	5841	32.8	0.56	26m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	8254.5	-27.7	-0.33	29m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
CLO	Clough Limited	0.71	-0.01	-0.7	120.2m
AFG	Allco Finance Group Limited	1.05	0.11	11.17	53.6m
TLS	Telstra Corporation Limited.	4.93	0.03	0.61	31.6m
LGL	Lihir Gold Limited	4.00	0.21	5.54	19.2m
TLSCA	Telstra (Installment Receipts)	3.36	0.04	1.2	16.6m

All Ords Percentage Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BGD	Boulder Steel Limited	0.18	0.03	20.69	38k
AIM	Aim Resources Limited	0.13	0.02	18.18	12.4m
TIM	Timbercorp Limited	1.36	0.20	17.24	2.5m
JML	Jabiru Metals Limited	0.91	0.13	16.67	2.8m
GNC	Graincorp Limited	12.85	1.72	15.45	317.4k

All Ords Percentage Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
FXL	Flexigroup Limited	0.78	-0.16	-16.58	1.2m
TGR	Tassal Group Limited	2.75	-0.49	-15.12	1.3m
AED	AED Oil Limited	1.84	-0.21	-10.24	2.7m
NFL	Natural Fuel Limited	0.18	-0.02	-10	722.6k
ENE	Energy Developments Limited	2.84	-0.28	-8.97	760.5k

---

USRant: Economy Smells Like Poo; IBM Buyin' Itself...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well, when you give yourself a toot-toot for being right, I guess it's only fair to lay bare your duds. Today it was a short above 1380 in the S&P, which went out when the S&P was at 1382.5 or thereabouts. Fifteen minutes later it was a couple of points higher (a good thing - enables folks to get set at better prices) and then the thing had one last try for the sky and gave up.

Well, that all sounds like it might have unfolded according to plan, for a short... EXCEPT that there was an explicit 1376.50 target. Anyone who got in above me, was supposed to adjust their targets accordingly (a deviation from the usual USSpy practice of point targets... usually 2-3 for the first contract, and larger targets on others).

So.

At the close of the US equity markets (4p.m. NY time), the S&P futures were  at 1378.50 - so the short (which as a 'no overnight hold' call due to the second consecutive close above 1360) still looked like a good call, at that point. Not a 'ball tearer', but not bad.

Then the S&P futures rocketed 5 points in the following 10 minutes to close above 1383 - meaning that virtually every subscriber lost at least a point (except those who refused to budge from the 'fixed target' paradigm).  

That said, have a look in the blog archive for the 30-year bond call. Man Oh Man was that a ball tearer.

Economic News

The US economy is receiving daily updates as to how deep it's in the caca; today it was 

• a massive reading of 1.0% (for the month) on the Producer Price Index; and
• a drop to 75 on the Consumer Confidence index (that's the lowest number in a while) 

Couple that with the diabolical news in the housing sector, and are you really going to try and tell me that this recent bot of equity strength is the bounce that I forecast about ten days ago? I am still highly skeptical, even if it is coming at the right time. Too bad - with two consecutive closes above 1360, shorts become a "Show me more than one sign" entries, while longs are given more latitude. Not a comfortable situation for me, by a long shot.

Fed Open Market Operations

One $9 billion repo with just over a billion in Treasury backed. Boring.

Headline Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +114.70 points (0.91%) to 12684.92 points. The index high for the day was 12734.18, while the low was 12512.41. Everything was looking grim - given the autopsy report on the US economy - until IBM announced that it will buy back $15 billion of its own stock. 

I've never been a fan of stock buybacks - they are often done with borrowed money and they have absolutely no impact on the capacity of the business to do the actual stuff that it is supposed to be doing. In other words, it is something that is done when managements are looking too closely at the stock price.

Major Advancers in the Dow were

• IBM (IBM) +$4.30 (3.91%) to 114.38 on volume of 18.1 million units
• Intel (INTC) +0.75 (3.76%) to 20.69 on volume of 78.2 million units
• Hewlett Packard  (HPQ) +1.07 (2.22%) to 49.2 on volume of 19.6 million units
• Wal Mart Stores (WMT) +1.07 (2.13%) to 51.4 on volume of 30.3 million units
• AIG (AIG) +1.04 (2.06%) to 51.42 on volume of 20.9 million units

Major Decliners in the Dow were

• Alcoa (AA) -0.35 (0.9%) to 38.5 on volume of 11.8 million units
• Merck c (MRK) -0.4 (0.85%) to 46.39 on volume of 7.9 million units
• General Electric  (GE) -0.27 (0.79%) to 33.94 on volume of 45.3 million units
• JP Morgan Chase C (JPM) -0.31 (0.7%) to 43.72 on volume of 20.2 million units
• Bk Of America Corp (BAC) -0.22 (0.51%) to 42.72 on volume of 27.3 million units

Most Traded Dow stocks were

• Citigroup (C) +0.21 (0.85%) to 24.95 on volume of 100.4 million units
• Microsoft (MSFT) +0.54 (1.94%) to 28.38 on volume of 99.6 million units
• Intel (INTC) +0.75 (3.76%) to 20.69 on volume of 78.2 million units
• General Electric (GE%) -0.27 (-0.79) to 33.94 on volume of 45.3 million units
• Pfizer (PFE) +0.05 (0.22%) to 22.83 on volume of 37 million units

The S&P500 Index advanced +9.49 points (0.69%) to 1381.29 points. ; the Nasdaq Composite advanced +17.51 points (0.75%) to 2344.99 points and the Nasdaq100 advanced +5.85 points (0.33%) to 1791.31 points. 

The CBOE Volatility Index lost 1.08 points (4.69%) to 21.95 points. The CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index lost 0.67 points (2.51%) to 26.00 points. 

NYSE Total Volume totalled 3.95billion units and Nasdaq Total Volume totalled 2.26billion units.

Major Market Statistics
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	12684.92	+114.70	0.91%
S&P500 Index	1381.29	+9.49	0.69%
Nasdaq Composite	2344.99	+17.51	0.75%
Nasdaq100	1791.31	+5.85	0.33%
CBOE Volatility Index	21.95	-1.08	-4.69%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index	26.00	-0.67	-2.51%
NYSE Total Volume	3.95bn	-	-
Nasdaq Total Volume	2.26bn	-	-

Precious Metals

Precious metals futures rebounded a bit  - but not our old mate Platinum. Platinum is the harbinger.

Precious Metal Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	951.8	+11.3	1.2
Silver	1879.0	+70.5	3.9
Platinum	2151.0	-2.5	-0.12
Palladium	532.40	+7.70	1.47

Energy Complex

Energy futures finally got their close above $100. The next few sessions are make or break. If I had to bet,. I would bet short; the news flow around $100 oil will lure some stale small bulls out of the paddock and into the abbatoir.

Energy Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Crude Oil	100.95	+1.72	1.73
Heating Oil	2.7919	+0.0321	1.16
Gasoline RBOB	2.5500	+0.0081	0.32
Natural Gas	9.220	+0.002	0.02

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 0.2%. The fallout occurred as follows:

• General Electric (GE) down $0.27 (0.79%) to $33.94 on volume of 45.27 million units.
• Citigroup (C) up $+0.21 (0.85%) to $24.95 on volume of 100.4 million units.
• Wal-Mart (WMT) up $+1.07 (2.13%) to $51.40 on volume of 30.33 million units.
• IBM (IBM) up $+4.30 (3.91%) to $114.38 on volume of 18.12 million units.
• Intel (INTC) up $+0.75 (3.76%) to $20.69 on volume of 78.24 million units.
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) up $+0.27 (1.13%) to $24.07 on volume of 58.49 million units.
• Google (GOOG) down $22.25 (4.57%) to $464.19 on volume of 23.19 million units.
• Fannie Mae (FNM) down $1.3 (4.6%) to $26.97 on volume of 19.91 million units.
• Freddie Mac (FRE) down $0.97 (3.71%) to $25.21 on volume of 22.25 million units.

Currencies

Notice how far the US Dollar index slid once it got through that mid-75 range? A break of 75 is really really important... in a really bad way.

Currency Futures
Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
U.S. Dollar Index	74.790	-0.795	-1.05
British Pound	1.9839	+0.0194	0.99
Canadian Dollar	1.0205	+0.0179	1.79
Japanese Yen	0.9337	+0.0070	0.76
Swiss Franc	0.9300	+0.0112	1.22
Euro FX	1.4961	+0.0146	0.99
Australian Dollar	0.9311	+0.0063	0.68
New Zealand Dollar	0.81290	+0.0051	0.63

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OzRant: Chalk Up A Win (But Just)...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

As always, the best time of day to 'fade' the Australian market, is at the open. Last night SPISpyers were sadly let down by your beloved GT (who could not get the proper SPISpy system to work and had to send out a vanilla e-mail, WAY later).

Anyway, the alert e-mail sent at 10:40 Oz time had this as its salient line:

Short at 11:15 a.m. Sydney time, irrespective of price, with a 10-point target.

As it turned out, that was a annoying. The SPI dipped nicely just after 11:15 a.m., but it just failed to reach the target, falling 2 points shy. Anyone trading two units was supposed to take one off at that point and set a stop on the other which would result in zero overall if the stop was hit. And such a stop was hit before the target was reached (which waasn't until 2:25 in the afternoon); folks trading a single lot had to endure hours underwater in order to get away with what ought to have been a much easier trade (had I been able to get the e-mail out within a couple of minutes of the ASX open).

A win is a win, though, and for once it's the little guy doing the winning. And not to be too crass about it, but 10 SPI points is $250 on a $6250 intraday initial margin... i.e., a 4% gain for the session. But it was a tooth-grinder nonetheless. A SPISpy subscription would have paid for itself for a month, and left enough on the table for a slap up luncheon at Mrs Miggins' Pie Shoppe.

Still and all - folks who have this habit of piling in at the open, then getting kicked in the nads for the rest of the session, must get sick of it after a while, surely.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the All Ordinaries (XAO) - advanced pretty handily, rising 46 points (0.81%), finishing at 5745.8 points. The index hit an intraday high of 5767.1 at 10:14 am (GT ought to have had the SPISpy e-mail ready to send at 10:15...), while the low for the day was 5705.7 - the vestige of yesterday's close; the traded low was 5727 at 2:25 p.m., 40 points below the high but only 11 points below the 11:15 a.m. print - gives you a clue as to the difficulty of getting that 10-point target .

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.4 billion units, 4% below its 10-day average. The ASX's daily listing of all stocks included 1413 different 3-letter FPO's which traded (i.e., had non-zero trade volume). Of these, 599 issues rose, with volume in rising issues totalling 582.3 million units. Conversely (or even contrariwise), 543 stocks were dragged for a loss, with aggregate volume traded of 658.7 million shares.

Notice that? Advance decline numbers were positive, but advance-decline volume was not. that dear Reader, is a sign from Hathor.

Of the 475 All Ordinaries components, 237 rose while 177 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 434.54 million shares traded in gainers while 495.91 million shares traded in the day's losers. Another sign on the volume front.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - posted a modest rise of 44.5 points (0.79%), closing out the session at 5666.1 points.

Name	Close	+/-(%)
All Ordinaries	5745.80	46.00 (0.8%)
ASX 50	5472.10	41.50 (0.8%)
ASX 200	5666.10	44.50 (0.8%)
ASX 300	5672.10	44.20 (0.8%)
ASX Mid-Cap 50	5962.30	52.00 (0.9%)
ASX Small Ordinaries	3399.10	27.90 (0.8%)
ASX 20	3115.40	33.30 (1.1%)
ASX 100	4578.60	35.50 (0.8%)

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - performed solidly, in moving up 33.3 points (1.08%), closing out the session at 3115.4 points.

Among the 20 big guns, 16 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 5 closed lower for the session. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 172.07 million units; 16 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 123.83 million shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 48.23 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Macquarie Group Limited (MQG), +$3.27 (5.9%) to $58.73 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
• Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.86 (4.75%) to $41.00 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
• Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$1.31 (4.52%) to $30.32 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
• National Australia Bank Limited (NAB), +$0.90 (3.09%) to $30.02 on volume of 7.2 million shares; and
• CSL Limited (CSL), +$1.10 (3%) to $37.71 on volume of 2.8 million shares.

On the less salubrious side of the big-cap fence, the following stocks were the worst-performed within the index:

• QBE Insurance Group Limited (QBE), -$3.07 (10.71%) to $25.60 on volume of 19.6 million shares;
• Foster's Group Limited (FGL), -$0.12 (2.2%) to $5.34 on volume of 11 million shares;
• Rio Tinto Limited (RIO), -$1.77 (1.31%) to $133.66 on volume of 1 million shares;
• BHP Billiton Limited (BHP), -$0.32 (0.82%) to $38.73 on volume of 14.2 million shares; and
• Suncorp-Metway Limited. (SUN), -$0.07 (0.46%) to $15.21 on volume of 2.5 million shares.

At the other end of the market-cap spectrum lie the denizens of the ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) - the place where non-mania excess returns lie. The small end of the market slightly underperformed its large-cap counterpart. The Small Ords advanced by under a percent, adding 27.9 points (0.83%), closing out the session at 3399.1 points.

Among the stocks that make up the Small Caps index, 105 index components finished to the upside, and of the rest, 72 closed lower for the session.

The 190 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 207.75 million units: volume in the 105 gainers totalling 112.16 million shares, with trade totalling 84.08 million units in the index's 72 declining components. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Rubicon America Trust (RAT), +$0.03 (9.8%) to $0.28 on volume of 1.8 million shares;
• Babcock & Brown Power (BBP), +$0.18 (9.63%) to $2.05 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
• Mirabela Nickel Limited (MBN), +$0.50 (9.38%) to $5.83 on volume of 108.1 thousand shares;
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH), +$0.13 (7.96%) to $1.70 on volume of 4.1 million shares; and
• Becton Property Group (BEC), +$0.17 (7.14%) to $2.55 on volume of 2.2 million shares.

In the red-zone of the little-stock index, the following list represents the biggest downers (in terms of percentage decline):

• Australian Education Trust (AEU), -$0.2 (16.67%) to $1.00 on volume of 3.4 million shares;
• Flexigroup Limited (FXL), -$0.15 (13.06%) to $0.97 on volume of 370.9 thousand shares;
• Commander Communications Limited (CDR), -$0.02 (9.38%) to $0.15 on volume of 1.3 million shares;
• Boom Logistics Limited (BOL), -$0.06 (6.59%) to $0.85 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
• Ridley Corporation Limited (RIC), -$0.07 (5.81%) to $1.14 on volume of 311.6 thousand shares.

Index Changes

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	5745.8	46	0.81	3420.7m
XFL	ASX 50	5472.1	41.5	0.76	1203m
XJO	ASX 200	5666.1	44.5	0.79	2957.6m
XKO	ASX 300	5672.1	44.2	0.79	3212.9m
XMD	ASX Mid-Cap 50	5962.3	52	0.88	1210.6m
XSO	ASX Small Ordinaries	3399.1	27.9	0.83	799.3m
XTL	ASX 20	3115.4	33.3	1.08	679m
XTO	ASX 100	4578.6	35.5	0.78	2413.5m

Market Breadth

	ASX20	XTO	XJO	XAO	XSO	Market
Advances	16	65	123	236	105	599
Declines	5	32	66	177	72	543
Advancing Volume	123.8m	299.5m	375.2m	434.5m	112.2m	582.3 million
Declining Volume	48.2m	389m	442.1m	495.9m	84.1m	658.7 million

GICS Industry Indices

Among the 11 industry indices, things were relatively upbeat: every sector bar one managed to keep its head above water.

The best performing index was Consumer Staples (XSJ), which added 260.2 points (3.24%) to 8282.2 points. The 10 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 39.25 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 24.26 million shares, while the 3 decliners had volume traded totalling 14.99 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• AWB Limited (AWB), +$0.11 (4.89%) to $2.36 on volume of 1.4 million shares;
• Wesfarmers Limited (WES), +$1.86 (4.75%) to $41.00 on volume of 5.1 million shares;
• Woolworths Limited (WOW), +$1.31 (4.52%) to $30.32 on volume of 5.3 million shares;
• Metcash Limited (MTS), +$0.10 (2.49%) to $4.12 on volume of 3.1 million shares; and
• Goodman Fielder Limited (GFF), +$0.05 (2.49%) to $1.86 on volume of 5.5 million shares.

Second in the index leadership stakes was Property Trusts (XPJ), which gained 28.1 points (1.64%) to 1737.6 points. The 21 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 109.7 million units; 15 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 59.4 million shares, while the 5 decliners had volume traded totalling 39.31 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.06 (6.86%) to $0.94 on volume of 6.2 million shares;
• Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), +$0.07 (5%) to $1.37 on volume of 5.6 million shares;
• Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), +$0.02 (3.23%) to $0.64 on volume of 9.3 million shares;
• ING Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.06 (2.93%) to $2.11 on volume of 3.2 million shares; and
• ING Office Fund (IOF), +$0.04 (2.73%) to $1.32 on volume of 1.1 million shares.

The bronze medal for today goes to Healthcare (XHJ), which climbed 144 points (1.58%) to 9248.5 points. The 9 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 21.9 million units; 7 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 10.98 million shares, while the 2 decliners had volume traded totalling 10.92 million units. The major percentage gainers within the index were

• CSL Limited (CSL), +$1.10 (3%) to $37.71 on volume of 2.8 million shares;
• Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd (SIP), +$0.04 (2.61%) to $1.38 on volume of 4 million shares;
• Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC), +$0.23 (2.17%) to $10.85 on volume of 484.4 thousand shares;
• Ansell Limited (ANN), +$0.25 (2.05%) to $12.47 on volume of 881.7 thousand shares; and
• ResMed Inc. (RMD), +$0.06 (1.36%) to $4.46 on volume of 1.9 million shares.

The only declining index for the session was Materials (XMJ), which dipped 117.7 points (0.78%) to 14997.4 points. The 42 stocks which make up the index traded a total of 131.87 million units; The 24 decliners had volume traded totalling 80.8 million units, and 17 index components rose, with rising volume amounting to 45.58 million shares, The major percentage decliners within the index were

• Bluescope Steel Limited (BSL), -$0.73 (6.24%) to $10.97 on volume of 5.9 million shares;
• Zinifex Limited (ZFX), -$0.47 (4.48%) to $10.03 on volume of 4.8 million shares;
• Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP), -$0.63 (3.75%) to $16.17 on volume of 291 thousand shares;
• Iluka Resources Limited (ILU), -$0.12 (3.37%) to $3.44 on volume of 1.1 million shares; and
• Perilya Limited (PEM), -$0.06 (3.19%) to $1.82 on volume of 1.2 million shares.

Sector Indices

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XSJ	Consumer Staples	8282.2	260.2	3.24	39m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1737.6	28.1	1.64	110m
XHJ	Healthcare	9248.5	144	1.58	22m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1726.8	24.6	1.45	69m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5745	78.2	1.38	120m
XIJ	Information Technology	521.1	6.4	1.24	5m
XUJ	Utilities	5808.2	61.4	1.07	26m
XNJ	Industrials	5698.8	40.4	0.71	72m
XEJ	Energy	14933.4	44.3	0.3	47m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2356.5	2.7	0.11	204m
XMJ	Materials	14997.4	-117.7	-0.78	132m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ABS	ABC Learning Centres Limited	2.15	-1.59	-42.51	155.5m
TLS	Telstra Corporation Limited.	4.88	0.05	1.04	30.8m
AFG	Allco Finance Group Limited	0.90	-0.21	-18.92	30.2m
TLSCA	Telstra (Installment Receipts)	3.32	0.07	2.15	27m
MCW	Macquarie Countrywide Trust	1.39	-0.11	-7.36	20.5m

All Ords Percentage Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
FZN	Fone Zone Group Limited	0.60	0.10	19	421k
MBP	Metabolic Pharmaceuticals Limited	0.04	0.00	11.43	77k
RAT	Rubicon America Trust	0.28	0.03	9.8	1.8m
BBP	Babcock & Brown Power	2.05	0.18	9.63	5.1m
MBN	Mirabela Nickel Limited	5.83	0.50	9.38	108.1k

All Ords Percentage Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
ABS	ABC Learning Centres Limited	2.15	-1.59	-42.51	155.5m
AFG	Allco Finance Group Limited	0.90	-0.21	-18.92	30.2m
AEU	Australian Education Trust	1.00	-0.20	-16.67	3.4m
AXQ	Allco Max Securities And Mortgage Trust	0.13	-0.03	-16.67	560.5k
NFL	Natural Fuel Limited	0.21	-0.04	-16	2.9m

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