MarketRant: February 2005

Monday, February 28, 2005

USRant: GM Drags Dow... Bonds Tank More (Yaaay!)

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

a $6billion, overnight repurchase with $4.09billion in T-backed collateral ; and
a $3billion, 3-day repurchase with $1.182billion in T-backed collateral.

Major US Indices

Anyone just looking at the headline repo numbers might have expected a booster shot with some "vim", but looking at only the T-backed component, it only just exceeded the usual threshold. As I mentioned last week, it is taking progressively larger volumes of T-backed repurchases to get a decent goosing happening, so the $5 bill T-backed threshold still has to be approached with caution. The S&P tried valiantly to rally after 10 a.m., but never got more than 2 points above its 10 a.m. level... and then it just sagged like a fat lady's triceps until 2 p.m. when it bounced almost ten points in 90 minutes. Evidently the repo dough was being used as a sand anchor to slow an otherwise more powerful decline. (It didn't help that the Consumption and Spending numbers were worse than expected, or that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator hit a 3-year high).

By the close, the DJIA had dipped 75.37 points (0.7%), closing out the day at 10766.23 points; even that outcome was only possible thanks to a 75-point intraday rally that started at 2 p.m. and lasted for 90 minutes.

Within the blue-chip index, 7 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Alcoa (AA +1.55% to $32.12) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ +0.68% to $20.80). Losers in the Dow numbered 23 and were led by General Motors (GM -3.36% to $35.65) after a brokerage downgrade, and American International Group (AIG -2.27% to $66.80); Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 351.4m shares to 76.5m.

The broader S&P500 shed 7.77 points (0.64%), closing at 1203.6. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite lost 13.68 points (0.66%), to close at 2051.72, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 15.88 points (1.04%), to end at 1511.02 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.8 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was super-chunky (over 2 bill), with 2.14 billion shares being flicked around like chips on a roulette board.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10766.23	-75.37	-0.7%
S&P500	1203.6	-7.77	-0.64%
Nasdaq Composite	2051.72	-13.68	-0.66%
Nasdaq100	1511.02	-15.88	-1.04%
NYSE Volume	1.8bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	2.14bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.20%; those Citigroup $47.50 March05 puts (purchased for $45) finally got back to square. Recall from Friday's USRant that the non-participation of Citigroup in recent bounces, was an important divergence. That doesn't rule out the proposed couple of days' continuation after today's little pullback, especially since the market has to give Greenspan's ego its usual "rub'n'tug" on Wednesday. Everyone will get twitterpated thinking that Greenspan is giving them a coded heads-up on the upcoming employment report, but the rally is most definitely losing steam.

General Electric (GE) -$0.42 (1.18%) to $35.20;
Citigroup (C) -$0.56 (1.16%) to $47.72;
Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.12 (0.23%) to $51.61;
I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.22 (0.24%) to $92.58;
Intel (INTC) -$0.10 (0.42%) to $23.99;
Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.22 (1.28%) to $17.42;
eBay (EBAY) +$0.60 (1.42%) to $42.84;
Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.76 (1.32%) to $58.46; and
Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.36 (0.58%) to $62.00.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 2033 to 1312, for a single-day A/D reading of -721; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1836 to 1313. The 10-day moving averages of the AD line fell to 163 (NYSE) and -93 (Nasdaq).

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1222.8 to 551 million shares; Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1304.9 to 806.2 million shares.

317 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 36 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 146 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 60 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	1312	1313
Decliners	2033	1836
Advancing Volume (m)	550.98	806.21
Declining Volume (m)	1222.8	1304.9
New Highs	317	146
New Lows	36	60

Market Sentiment

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	12.08	0.59	5.13%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	18.07	0.73	4.21%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.65	-0.02	-2.99%
10-day PCR	0.61	0	0%
SPX-VIX Ratio	99.64	-5.7924	-5.49%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds fell - hard - with the falls concentrated in the belly of the curve.

The short position (from 117) in the March05 30-year bond futures passed the 200% gain signpost with ease as the contract fell a full point to 112 & 31/32. That brings the total profit (on a US$1755 outlay) to a tad over US$4000 in just over three weeks.

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rose another 6 basis points to 4.706%, and intraday the yield on the 5-year note broke through 4%.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.69	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.58	0.08	2.29%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.995	0.09	2.41%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.359	0.087	2.04%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.706	0.064	1.38%

The Banks Index declined 0.57 points (0.57%), to 99.52; within the index,

M&T Bank Corp (MTB) -$1.19 (1.19%) to $99.01;
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -$0.53 (1.17%) to $44.77;
Citigroup (C) -$0.56 (1.16%) to $47.72;
JPMorganChase (JPM) -$0.42 (1.14%) to $36.55; and
Comerica (CMA) -$0.60 (1.04%) to $57.08.

The Broker-dealer Index declined 1.27 points (0.86%), ending the day at 147.01; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

Morgan Stanley (MWD) -$1.19 (2.06%) to $56.47;
Charles Schwab (SCH) -$0.22 (2.05%) to $10.50;
E*Trade (ET) -$0.19 (1.41%) to $13.27;
Merrill Lynch (MER) -$0.75 (1.26%) to $58.58; and
Lehman Brothers (LEH) -$1.12 (1.21%) to $91.18.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index declined 6.47 points (1.46%), to end the session at 437.23

Infineon Tech (IFX) -$0.38 (3.54%) to $10.34;
Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) -$0.31 (3.29%) to $9.12;
Teradyne (TER) -$0.44 (2.77%) to $15.42;
KLA-Tencor (KLAC) -$1.40 (2.76%) to $49.41; and
Applied Materials (AMAT) -$0.47 (2.62%) to $17.45.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $0.60 (0.14%) to close at $436.80 per ounce. Yet again, it simply mirrored the US dollar index, and unless the USDX gets its groove on (downwards) in a serious way, Gold is going to struggle to make any headway.

The Gold Bugs Index declined 0.04 points (0.02%), to 215.32

Golden Star (GSS) -$0.08 (2.72%) to $2.86;
Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.44 (2.22%) to $19.35;
Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$0.15 (1.03%) to $14.47;
Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.07 (0.58%) to $12.08; and
Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.03 (0.53%) to $5.64.

Silver rose $0.06 (0.79%) to close at $7.37 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 0.09 points (0.09%), closing at 98.97 points.

Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) +$0.09 (9.38%) to $1.05;
Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.72 (1.75%) to $41.82;
Newmont Mining (NEM) +$0.18 (0.4%) to $45.00; and
Placer Dome (PDG) +$0.04 (0.23%) to $17.29.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	436.8	0.6	0.14%
Silver	7.371	0.058	0.79%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	98.97	0.09	0.09%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	215.32	-0.04	-0.02%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.26 per barrel, closing at $51.75 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) shed 1.7 points (0.2%), closing at 861.39

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$1.09 (1.53%) to $70.27;
ConocoPhillips (COP) -$1.43 (1.27%) to $110.89; and
Unocal (UCL) -$0.33 (0.61%) to $54.10.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index slid 1.3 points (0.91%), closing at 141.44

Global Industries (GLBL) -$0.47 (4.57%) to $9.82;
Nabors Industries (NBR) -$1.23 (2.1%) to $57.40; and
Halliburton (HAL) -$0.78 (1.74%) to $43.97.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	305	4.77	1.59%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	51.75	0.26	0.5%
Heating Oil	1.4914	0.0373	2.57%
Natural Gas	6.698	-0.017	-0.25%
Unleaded Gas	1.2456	-0.0089	-0.71%
AMEX Oil Index	861.39	-1.7	-0.2%
Oil Service Index	141.44	-1.3	-0.91%

Currency Markets

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	82.54	-0.1	-0.12%
Euro	1.3222	-0.0019	-0.14%
Yen	104.62	-0.58	-0.55%
Sterling	1.9208	0.0016	0.08%
Australian Dollar	0.7912	0.005	0.64%
Swiss Franc	1.1626	0.0007	0.06%
Canadian Dollar	0.8104	0.0032	0.4%

OzRant: Resources Frenzy (i.e., we're close to a top)...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 40.10 points (0.97%), finishing at 4156.50 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4159.20 and its low was 4116.4 (set at the open). The bulk of the day's gain in the index happened within an hour of the open - the market closed less than 5 All Ords points above the level it got to at 11 a.m.; in short, this was a handful of "basket buys" in the big-caps, plus a swathe of nuffie US-went-up-on-Friday camp-followers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 42.30 points (1.02%), finishing at 4172.80 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 28.00 points (1.26%), finishing at 2258.80 points. Within the index members, there were 17 that rose, and 3 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 88.15 while volume in the losers totalled 17.35m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.95 (4.3%) to $47.30 on volume of 3.55m shares;
Woolworths (WOW), +$0.54 (3.6%) to $15.56 on volume of 2.83m shares;
BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.57 (3.06%) to $19.17 on volume of 44.39m shares;
Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.82 (2.14%) to $39.22 on volume of 552,000 shares; and
Alumina (AWC), +$0.11 (1.85%) to $6.04 on volume of 4.43m shares.

Here was me, believing the crap about markets being mythically forward looking (of course I don't believe it - as I've said a dozen times since Christmas, markets are lucky if they're even SIDEWAYS looking).

The big catalyst in the Resources appears to have been that RIO released some good monthly output stats, and announced that it was going to spend a quarter-billion bucks on finding some more stuff to dig up.Whoopdee-freaking doo: where were all those forward looking twerps before Resources became the sexy sector?

The following stocks made up the only 3 losers in the big-guns:

National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.16 (0.55%) to $28.74 on volume of 3.74m shares;
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.05 (0.23%) to $21.33 on volume of 2.88m shares; and
Telstra Corporation. (TLS), down a cent (0.19%) to $5.27 on volume of 10.73m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 9.30 points (0.39%), finishing at 2363.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

Perilya (PEM), +$0.12 (11.88%) to $1.13 on volume of 1.28m shares;
Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.04 (8.51%) to $0.51 on volume of 284,000 shares;
Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.46 (8%) to $6.21 on volume of 589,000 shares;
AAV (AVV), +$0.11 (7.69%) to $1.54 on volume of 191,000 shares; and
Institute Of Drug Technology Australia (IDT), +$0.14 (7%) to $2.14 on volume of 24,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.22 (9.91%) to $2.00 on volume of 31,000 shares;
Technology One (TNE), -$0.07 (9.46%) to $0.67 on volume of 1.58m shares; and
Ventracor (VCR), -$0.07 (5.79%) to $1.14 on volume of 1.34m shares;
Atlas Group Holdings (AHS), -$0.08 (5.63%) to $1.34 on volume of 1.55m shares; and
Platinum Capital (PMC), -$0.10 (4.88%) to $1.95 on volume of 259,000 shares.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4156.5	40.1	0.97%	522.27m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2258.8	28	1.26%	105.5m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4125.7	46.4	1.14%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3394.3	36	1.07%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4172.8	42.3	1.02%	390.48m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4177.6	41.8	1.01%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	4012.2	26.4	0.66%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2363.9	9.3	0.39%	158.74m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	209	105	80	17	952
Declines	175	70	79	3	706
Advancing Volume	303.72m	249.85m	89.34m	88.15	639.12
Declining Volume	136.18m	98.42m	49.6m	17.35	354.39

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Utilities which gained 2.40% to 4689.40 points. The sector was helped by

Alinta (ALN), +$0.39 (4.79%) to $8.54 on volume of 1.35m shares;
Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.34 (2.46%) to $14.15 on volume of 1.68m shares;
Energy Developments (ENE), +$0.07 (1.9%) to $3.75 on volume of 95,000 shares;
Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.01 (0.4%) to $2.49 on volume of 214,000 shares; and
Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.02 (0.79%) to $2.50 on volume of 794,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Information Technology which gained 2.36% to 382.20 points. The sector leaders were -

Infomedia Ltd (IFM), +$0.02 (3.17%) to $0.65 on volume of 1.29m shares;
Computershare. (CPU), +$0.16 (2.87%) to $5.73 on volume of 885,000 shares;
IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.08 (1.9%) to $4.28 on volume of 164,000 shares;
MYOB (MYO), +$0.01 (0.8%) to $1.26 on volume of 140,000 shares; and
Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.01 (0.35%) to $2.83 on volume of 463,000 shares.

The bronze today went to Materials which gained 2.30% to 7462.60 points. The sector was led by

Portman (PMM), +$0.19 (5.11%) to $3.91 on volume of 13.87m shares;
Sims Group (SMS), +$0.85 (4.94%) to $18.05 on volume of 499,000 shares;
Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.95 (4.3%) to $47.30 on volume of 3.55m shares;
BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.57 (3.06%) to $19.17 on volume of 44.39m shares; and
Gunns (GNS), +$0.13 (3.01%) to $4.45 on volume of 851,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Healthcare which lost 0.34% to 4740.70 points. The sector was dragged lower by

Ventracor (VCR), -$0.07 (5.79%) to $1.14 on volume of 1.34m shares;
Sigma Company. (SIG), -$0.32 (3.74%) to $8.23 on volume of 300,000 shares; and
Ramsay Health Care (RHC), -$0.20 (2.8%) to $6.94 on volume of 241,000 shares;
Cochlear (COH), -$0.69 (2.31%) to $29.20 on volume of 126,000 shares; and
Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.02 (1.65%) to $1.19 on volume of 158,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Telecommunications which lost 0.22% to 1870.80 points. The sectoronly has 2 stocks, so here they both are... note that there is no possible way that you can get -0.22% from any capitalisation-weighted combination of the percentage changes of the two stock prices. In short, either the ASX's index number is wrong, or the ASX's prices for TLS and/or TEL are wrong, or the index has more members.Still - here they are...

Telstra Corporation. (TLS), off 1 cent (0.19%) to $5.27 on volume of 10.73m shares; and
Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.04 (0.69%) to $5.87 on volume of 1.76m shares.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XUJ	Utilities	4689.4	109.8	2.4%	5.06m
XIJ	Information Technology	382.2	8.8	2.36%	4.39m
XMJ	Materials	7462.6	168	2.3%	125.28m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5496	98	1.82%	26.22m
XEJ	Energy	7663.1	126.4	1.68%	20.73m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1780.6	17.1	0.97%	78.45m
XFJ	Financials	4901.5	32.1	0.66%	120.06m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4968.2	28.4	0.57%	43.66m
XNJ	Industrials	5020.4	22	0.44%	43.37m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2267.1	8.7	0.39%	35.79m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1870.8	-4.1	-0.22%	12.49m
XHJ	Healthcare	4740.7	-16	-0.34%	10.13m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
BHP	BHP Billiton	19.17	0.57	3.06%	44.39m
AZR	Aztec Resources	0.25	0.01	2.04%	26.38m
ADY	Admiralty Resources.	0.14	0.01	3.85%	25.09m
MGX	Mount Gibson Iron	0.71	0.11	18.33%	15.44m
PMM	Portman	3.91	0.19	5.11%	13.87m
RMI	Resource Mining Corporation	0.16	0.02	10.34%	12.57m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PEM	Perilya	1.13	0.12	11.88%	1.28m
CMP	Compumedics	0.30	0.03	11.11%	186170
NAL	Norwood Abbey	0.51	0.04	8.51%	283845
WOR	Worleyparsons	6.21	0.46	8%	588606
AVV	AAV	1.54	0.11	7.69%	191112

All Ordinaries Top Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
SRX	Sirtex Medical	2.00	-0.22	-9.91%	30700
TNE	Technology One	0.67	-0.07	-9.46%	1.58m
PWT	Powertel	1.31	-0.13	-9.03%	318392
SRI	Sipa Resources	0.12	-0.01	-7.69%	676200
HLD	Homeleisure	0.30	-0.02	-6.35%	398291

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 87.29 points (0.75%) to close at 11745.54 points.

The Kiwi Market advanced 47.44 points (1.50%). A total of 35 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 15.8million units. Decliners numbered 8, and total volume traded in losers was 7.6million shares. Individual gainers were ...

Tower Limited Ord (TWR), +$0.13 (7.1%) to $1.96 on volume of 917,000 shares;
Axa Asia Pacific (AXA), +$0.24 (5.39%) to $4.69 on volume of 8,000 shares;
Trustpower Limite (TPW), +$0.25 (4.46%) to $5.85 on volume of 5,000 shares;
Sky Network Telev (SKY), +$0.25 (3.73%) to $6.95 on volume of 123,000 shares;
Ryman Healthcare (RYM), +$0.13 (3.71%) to $3.63 on volume of 37,000 shares; and
Independent Newsp (INL), +$0.23 (3.67%) to $6.50 on volume of 141,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 102.53 points (0.72%). Within the Hang Seng, 23 index components rose, while 5 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 147.8million units, and total volume traded in losers was 29.8million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

China Merchants Holdings (0144), +$0.40 (2.51%) to $16.35 on volume of 4.31m shares;
Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +$0.50 (2.27%) to $22.55 on volume of 2.33m shares;
Cosco Pacific (1199), +$0.35 (2.06%) to $17.35 on volume of 3.37m shares;
CNOOC (0883), +$0.08 (1.69%) to $4.50 on volume of 41.9m shares;
Hang Lung Properties (0101), +$0.15 (1.26%) to $12.10 on volume of 6.8m shares; and
PCCW Limited (0008), +$0.05 (1.1%) to $4.60 on volume of 7.86m shares.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3208.421	47.44	1.5%	27.02m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11745.54	87.29	0.75%	71155
Korea	KOSPI	1007.04	10.09	1.01%	466007
Singapore	Straits Times	2136.54	1.46	0.07%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14259.62	102.53	0.72%	192.22m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	903.91	0.4	0.04%	0

Friday, February 25, 2005

USRant: Welcome to the House of Fun... Madness

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.

a $3billion, 4-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.

Major US Indices

The DJIA advanced 92.81 points (0.86%), closing out the day at 10841.6 points; within the blue-chip index, 26 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Exxon Mobil (XOM +3.48% to $63.26) and Home Depot (HD +2.42% to $40.58). Losers in the Dow numbered 4 and were led by Walt Disney (DIS -0.92% to $27.89) and Microsoft (MSFT -0.47% to $25.25); Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 270.3m shares to 96.1m.

The "journo justification" for the move was that GDP grew by 3.8% as compared with the consensus guess of 3.6%. Don't believe that explanation for a second; first, the markets didn't react that favourable when the data was actually released (the upmove accelerated in the afternoon) and second 0.2 percentage points of excess growth is simply not that exciting. And if a third "leg" is required, look at volume. If the GDP numbers were so damn good, why was volume relatively tame?

This was "short week shenanigans", but it was fun to watch.

The broader S&P500 advanced 11.17 points (0.93%), at 1211.37. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite rose 13.7 points (0.67%), to close at 2065.4, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 adding 9.19 points (0.61%), to end at 1526.9 points.

NYSE Volume was moderate, with 1.52 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was 10% lower than you would expect on such a rally day, with 1.78 billion shares traded.

I mentioned in the last Sentiment Brief (which was sent at the end of January),

"The next synchronisation of daily and weekly charts (which will likely occur this week) will see both charts hit overnought, which will be a terrific shorting opportunity."

The Dow was at 10427 at the time (the blue dot on the chart), and the weekly chart had pulled back to neutral (but the daily chart was by then deeply oversold and ripe for a bounce). True to form, the daily bounced - hard - the following week, but not quite enough to push the weekly to overbought (that happened the following week).

Dow Jones Industrial Average - Weekly Chart Click on Image to Enlarge

I only mention this in order to attempt to lay out a potential for next week; the weekly chart is now overbought and shows something ominous; a nascent divergence between price action and my favourite divergence indicator (the RoC indicator). The index made a new weekly closing high for the year (and exceeded the weekly closing high of 10834 from December 19th 2004), but the RoC failed to confirm either. That is, the RoC is lower now than it was at the end of January when the weekly was expected (by me) to rise to overbought, and is lower than when the old weekly closing high was set.

Similarly, the RoC on daily charts failed to confirm the new closing high for the year - however today was the first day that the index hit overbought on the %R (and it's 4 days from hitting overbought on the smoothed %R).

I don't rule out one last attempt to generate some upward thrust, but on the balance of probabilities weakness should re-exert itself this coming week. Weekly charts are now solidly overbought, daily charts are "freshly" overbought, and the 15-minute intraday chart looks ridiculous. The market has added over 200 points in three sessions - from a low of 10609 on Tuesday to a high of 10845 Friday.

Another "hmmmm..." indicator is that Citigroup - the most managed stock in the entire spectrum of 1929-style "corners" that can be seen these days - has not participated in the bounce off this week's lows in any meaningful way. The same can be said for other heavily manipulated stocks - IBM, CSCO, GE and INTC.

If you prefer a Dow-Theoretic view of the world, the Dow Transports is nowhere near it's previous weekly closing high (which was set in early December 04 - before the Industrials). That's another tick in the "non-confirmation" column in the ledger.

Call me a masochist, but on Monday (after the opening orgasm) I will also be calling for the purchase of puts (again) in AAPL. One level out of the money (which currently would be $85 March puts); the stupid thing is behaving like a 1999 IPO, the iPod is simply not that impervious to competition. the miniMac is just not that good a machine, and their "computer in a screen" suffers when you look at it front-on, because the screen looks tiny (it's nottiny, but it looks tiny). Apple will disappoint.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10841.6	92.81	0.86%
S&P500	1211.37	11.17	0.93%
Nasdaq Composite	2065.4	13.7	0.67%
Nasdaq100	1526.9	9.19	0.61%
NYSE Volume	1.52bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	1.78bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.56%; note yet again that Citigroup is not participating. Smart money drives C, and that smart money is not buying the holiday-week shenanigans.

General Electric (GE) +$0.07 (0.2%) to $35.62;
Citigroup (C) -$0.02 (0.04%) to $48.28;
Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.03 (0.06%) to $51.49;
I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.16 (0.17%) to $92.80;
Intel (INTC) +$0.39 (1.65%) to $24.09;
Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.02 (0.12%) to $17.20;
eBay (EBAY) -$0.13 (0.31%) to $42.24;
Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.75 (1.32%) to $57.70; and
Freddie Mac (FRE) +$1.14 (1.88%) to $61.64.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2573 to 761 for a single-day A/D reading of 1812 - simply insane! Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 2041 to 1089. The 10-day MA of the advance decline line spiked upwards to +357 for the NYSE and to basically zero for the Nasdaq.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1208.3 to 301.9 million shares - a tilt of just over over 4:1; again, that is just madness. Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 961.4 to 763.2 million shares.

351 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 22 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 124 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 40 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	2573	2041
Decliners	761	1089
Advancing Volume (m)	1208.29	961.43
Declining Volume (m)	301.89	763.18
New Highs	351	124
New Lows	22	40

Market Sentiment

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.49	-0.08	-0.69%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.34	-0.27	-1.53%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.67	0.13	24.07%
10-day PCR	0.61	-0.05	-8.24%
SPX-VIX Ratio	105.43	1.6944	1.63%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with 10-year and 30-year Treasuries rising (the March05 30-year T-bond futures rose 10/32, closing at 114 & 2/32). The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 2.1 basis points to 4.642%.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.675	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.5	0.03	0.86%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.901	0.01	0.15%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.272	-0.009	-0.21%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.642	-0.021	-0.45%

The Banks Index gained 0.71 points (0.71%), ending the day at 100.09; within the index,

Wachovia (WB) +$1.04 (1.98%) to $53.51;
Bank Of NY (BK) +$0.53 (1.77%) to $30.39;
M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$1.63 (1.65%) to $100.20;
MBNA Corp (KRB) +$0.35 (1.39%) to $25.54; and
Comerica (CMA) +$0.73 (1.28%) to $57.68.

The Broker-dealer Index rose 2.75 points (1.89%), to 148.28; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

E*Trade (ET) +$0.48 (3.7%) to $13.46;
Jeffries Group (JEF) +$1.07 (2.87%) to $38.33;
Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$2.08 (2.31%) to $92.30;
Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.96 (2.03%) to $98.61; and
Raymond James (RJF) +$0.58 (1.95%) to $30.38.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index advanced 9.55 points (2.2%), closing at 443.7

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) +$1.96 (4.01%) to $50.81;
Broadcom (BRCM) +$1.20 (3.79%) to $32.88;
Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) +$0.34 (3.74%) to $9.43;
Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) +$1.35 (3.74%) to $37.49; and
Teradyne (TER) +$0.44 (2.85%) to $15.86.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $1.30 (0.3%) to close at $436.20 per ounce. The Gold Bugs Index rose 0.74 points (0.34%), ending the day at 215.36

Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.31 (2.62%) to $12.15;
Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.20 (2.39%) to $8.57;
Eldorado Gold (EGO) +$0.05 (1.65%) to $3.08;
Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.64 (1.58%) to $41.10; and
Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.12 (0.83%) to $14.62.

Silver fell by $0.09 (1.15%) to close at $7.31 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 0.35 points (0.36%), closing at 98.88 points.

Gold Fields (GFI) +$0.31 (2.62%) to $12.15;
Harmony Gold (HMY) +$0.20 (2.39%) to $8.57;
Freeport McMoran (FCX) +$0.64 (1.58%) to $41.10; and
Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.12 (0.83%) to $14.62.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	436.20	1.30	0.3%
Silver	7.313	-0.085	-1.15%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	98.88	0.35	0.36%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	215.36	0.74	0.34%

Oil Market

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.08 per barrel, closing at $51.49 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) added 15.51 points (1.83%), to 863.09

Exxon Mobil (XOM) +$2.13 (3.48%) to $63.26;
Marathon Oil (MRO) +$1.44 (3.19%) to $46.63; and
Unocal (UCL) +$1.43 (2.7%) to $54.43.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index posted a rise of 1.69 points (1.2%), closing at 142.74

Varco International (VRC) +$1.24 (3.44%) to $37.25;
Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.34 (3.42%) to $10.29; and
Halliburton (HAL) +$1.21 (2.78%) to $44.75.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	300.23	2.19	0.73%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	51.49	0.08	0.16%
Heating Oil	1.4541	-0.0099	-0.68%
Natural Gas	6.715	0.411	6.52%
Unleaded Gas	1.2545	-0.0255	-1.99%
AMEX Oil Index	863.09	15.51	1.83%
Oil Service Index	142.74	1.69	1.2%

Currency Markets

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	82.64	-0.26	-0.31%
Euro	1.3241	0.0041	0.31%
Yen	105.2	-0.18	-0.17%
Sterling	1.9192	0.0093	0.49%
Australian Dollar	0.7862	-0.0002	-0.03%
Swiss Franc	1.1619	-0.0066	-0.56%
Canadian Dollar	0.8072	0.0003	0.04%

European Markets

France's benchmark CAC-40 Index added 56.9 points (1.43%), ending the day at 4034.57; the German DAX-30 Index advanced 44.35 points (1.03%), to end the session at 4348.64; and in the UK, the FTSE-100 Index rose 34.7 points (0.7%), at 5006.8

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CAC-40	4034.57	56.9	1.43%
DAX-30	4348.64	44.35	1.03%
FTSE-100	5006.8	34.7	0.7%

OzRant: A Strange Friday Non-Fade...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Major Market Indices

If today's price action looks a tad artifical to you, then you're not alone.

Markets that do bugger-all until lunchtime on a Friday, and then float upwards like a helium filled balloon, are not sending genuine price signals.

Both the All Ords and the ASX200 did next-to-nothing until after 12:30 a.m.; they opened with the most feeble little spurt upwards that you could ever imagine, and by noon all three indices were showing the sort of tepid gains that folks have come to expect of a Friday: a modest rise, followed by a long lunch and an early exit.

Then somebody leant on their keyboard and kept buying all afternoon. But get hold of a chart and look at the last ten minutes; you will see that someone smaert started positioning themselves short. Using the Friday afternoon thin markets was a cheap way to execute the "pump" to get the indices up to a nice entry level for shorts.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 29.70 points (0.73%), finishing at 4116.40 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4121.30and its low was 4086.7.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 33.60 points (0.82%), finishing at 4130.50 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 24.50 points (1.11%), finishing at 2230.80 points. Within the index members, there were 19 that rose, and just 1 loser (CML). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 169.23 while volume in the losers totalled 15.33m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.42 (2.89%) to $14.97 on volume of 3.29m shares;
Alumina (AWC), +$0.13 (2.24%) to $5.93 on volume of 6.78m shares;
Woolworths (WOW), +$0.27 (1.83%) to $15.02 on volume of 4.04m shares;
Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), +$0.55 (1.55%) to $35.95 on volume of 5.33m shares; and
BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.28 (1.53%) to $18.60 on volume of 33.9m shares.

As I said, CML was the sole loser in the big-guns:

Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), -$0.06 (0.64%) to $9.35 on volume of 15.33m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 6.90 points (0.29%), finishing at 2354.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

Primelife Corporation (PLF), +$0.11 (10.28%) to $1.18 on volume of 240,000 shares;
Virotec International (VTI), +$0.06 (9.38%) to $0.70 on volume of 744,000 shares;
Bendigo Mining (BDG), +$0.08 (8.42%) to $1.03 on volume of 1.69m shares;
Keycorp (KYC), +$0.11 (6.75%) to $1.74 on volume of 54,000 shares; and
Fleetwood Corporation (FWD), +$0.55 (6.72%) to $8.73 on volume of 383,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

AV Jennings Homes (AVJ), -$0.12 (8.11%) to $1.36 on volume of 424,000 shares;
Integrated Group (IWF), -$0.19 (7.34%) to $2.40 on volume of 268,000 shares; and
Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.13 (6.67%) to $1.82 on volume of 514,000 shares;
Southern Cross Broadcasting (Australia) (SBC), -$0.84 (5.48%) to $14.50 on volume of 424,000 shares; and
Capral Aluminium (CAA), -$0.11 (5.29%) to $1.97 on volume of 107,000 shares.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4116.4	29.7	0.73%	756.68m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2230.8	24.5	1.11%	184.56m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4079.3	39.3	0.97%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3358.3	28.5	0.86%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4130.5	33.6	0.82%	611.5m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4135.8	33.2	0.81%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3985.8	6.5	0.16%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2354.6	6.9	0.29%	207.72m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	197	113	87	19	669
Declines	187	68	78	1	976
Advancing Volume	492.84m	428.68m	131.44m	169.23	475.02
Declining Volume	170.48m	134.22m	54.45m	15.33	601.33

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Information Technology which gained 2.02% to 373.40 points. The only stocks in the sector that rose were

Computershare. (CPU), +$0.20 (3.72%) to $5.57 on volume of 1.95m shares;
Vision Systems. (VSL), +$0.04 (3.54%) to $1.17 on volume of 416,000 shares; and
ERG (ERG), up a cent (3.33%) to $0.31 on volume of 2.38m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Telecommunications which gained 1.21% to 1874.90 points. The sector was "both up" (since it only contains 2 stocks) -

Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.09 (1.57%) to $5.83 on volume of 2.53m shares;
Telstra Corporation. (TLS), +$0.06 (1.15%) to $5.28 on volume of 36.93m shares.

The bronze today went to ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 1.17% to 4939.80 points. The sector was led by

SFE Corporation (SFE), +$0.31 (3.37%) to $9.52 on volume of 1.3m shares;
Insurance Australia Group (IAG), +$0.18 (2.92%) to $6.35 on volume of 4.64m shares;
QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.42 (2.89%) to $14.97 on volume of 3.29m shares;
FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.09 (2.3%) to $4.00 on volume of 902,000 shares; and
Promina Group (PMN), +$0.11 (2.24%) to $5.01 on volume of 8.93m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Utilities which lost 0.71% to 4579.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by

Alinta (ALN), -$0.17 (2.04%) to $8.15 on volume of 2.41m shares;
Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.14 (1%) to $13.81 on volume of 1.79m shares;
Pacific Hydro (PHY), -$0.04 (0.91%) to $4.36 on volume of 163,000 shares;
Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.02 (0.54%) to $3.68 on volume of 152,000 shares; and
Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.01 (0.4%) to $2.50 on volume of 111,000 shares.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XIJ	Information Technology	373.4	7.4	2.02%	6.46m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1874.9	22.5	1.21%	39.46m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4939.8	56.9	1.17%	86.08m
XMJ	Materials	7294.6	81.6	1.13%	167.52m
XFJ	Financials	4869.4	43.9	0.91%	176.9m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5398	43.2	0.81%	42.02m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2258.4	12.7	0.57%	50.08m
XEJ	Energy	7536.7	42.3	0.56%	42.91m
XNJ	Industrials	4998.4	11.6	0.23%	72.78m
XHJ	Healthcare	4756.7	2.3	0.05%	18.59m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1763.5	0	0%	95.27m
XUJ	Utilities	4579.6	-32.9	-0.71%	6.23m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
TLS	Telstra Corporation.	5.28	0.06	1.15%	36.93m
BHP	BHP Billiton	18.6	0.28	1.53%	33.9m
SAI	Sai Global	2.3	0.1	4.55%	30.28m
ADY	Admiralty Resources.	0.13	0.01	8.33%	22.38m
LHG	Lihir Gold	1.13	0.01	0.89%	20.91m
DRT	DB Rreef Trust	1.25	0	0%	16.26m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
AWP	Arrow Pharmaceuticals	12.5	1.18	10.42%	81492
PLF	Primelife Corporation	1.18	0.11	10.28%	240113
VTI	Virotec International	0.7	0.06	9.38%	744204
TKR	Triako Resources	1.7	0.14	8.97%	222745
BDG	Bendigo Mining	1.03	0.08	8.42%	1.69m

All Ordinaries Top Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
GAP	Gale Pacific	2.15	-0.35	-14%	305685
ALU	Altium	0.33	-0.05	-13.16%	324119
BOC	Bougainville Copper	0.49	-0.06	-10.19%	192696
CDA	Codan	1.76	-0.16	-8.33%	382091
AVJ	AV Jennings Homes	1.36	-0.12	-8.11%	424320

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 137.35 points (1.19%) to close at 11668.5 points.

The Kiwi Market advanced 15.59 points (0.50%). A total of 22 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 18.1million units. Decliners numbered 17, and total volume traded in losers was 4.3million shares. Individual stocks that dud well included...

Promina Group (PMN), +$0.20 (3.77%) to $5.50 on volume of 547,000 shares;
Waste Management (WAM), +$0.20 (3.08%) to $6.70 on volume of 501,000 shares;
Port Of Tauranga (POT), +$0.15 (2.7%) to $5.70 on volume of 59,000 shares;
Tenon Limited (TEN), +$0.10 (2.2%) to $4.65 on volume of 84,000 shares;
Fisher & Paykel H (FPH), +$0.06 (2.01%) to $3.05 on volume of 1.17m shares; and
Auckland International Airport (AIA), +$0.15 (1.79%) to $8.52 on volume of 473,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 104.89 points (0.75%). Within the Hang Seng, 29 index components rose, while 2 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 179.3million units, and total volume traded in losers was 42.3million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

Yue Yuen Ind (0551), +$0.75 (3.56%) to $21.80 on volume of 2.11m shares;
Lenovo Group (0992), +$0.08 (3.41%) to $2.28 on volume of 13.25m shares;
Henderson Investments (0097), +$0.35 (3.07%) to $11.75 on volume of 1.3m shares;
China Unicom (0762), +$0.20 (2.94%) to $7.00 on volume of 11.43m shares;
CNOOC (0883), +$0.10 (2.31%) to $4.43 on volume of 40.66m shares; and
Cosco Pacific (1199), +$0.35 (2.11%) to $16.95 on volume of 3.02m shares.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3160.983	15.59	0.5%	23.81m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11668.5	137.35	1.19%	59046
Korea	KOSPI	994.97	7.87	0.8%	485709
Singapore	Straits Times	2146.13	-6.46	-0.3%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	14165.8	104.89	0.75%	235.57m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	905.32	1.68	0.19%	0

USRant: Lotsa Repo Makes "Investing" Fun!!!

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

a $6.75billion, 6-day repurchase with $5.75billion in T-backed collateral ; and
a $9billion, 14-day repurchase with $7.468billion in T-backed collateral .

Major US Indices

The market washed off the oversold condition that had worked itself up on hourly charts, but is not through falling just yet; it has rolled over too far on the daily chart to escape gravity for the moment. That said, it is taking progressively larger quantities of repurchase grease to get the Dowager to lift her rusty old skirts. The timing was - yet again - spot on, with large repo resulting in a rideable low at 10 a.m. NY time. In fact the low of the session was set at 10 a.m. precisely, so the "repo pump" hypothesis resulted in a trade that was not underwater for even so much as a minute.

Journalists love the phrase "on the back of"... then a single dot-point: you know... "Markets rose on the back of rising earnings expectations" or some other such waffle. The "Why?" of that, is that it makes for slightly more interesting reading than just "The Fed repo'd a total of 15 bill, so intraday market action was upward for the time period starting at 10 a.m."

Anyhow... 10 a.m. was the low, and from there the Dow rose 50 points in 25 minutes, while the S&P rose about 6 in the same time. Then all the indices softened (but never got back to their lows) and went nowhere much for quite a while. Sure, they were all rising off their lows, but there seemed to be no traction. From 1 p.m. onwards the indices just all wafted higher and higher.

By the close, the DJIA had added 75 points (0.7%), closing out the day at 10748.79 points; within the blue-chip index, 23 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Caterpillar (CAT +2.98% to $93.16) and Exxon Mobil (XOM +2.88% to $61.13). Losers in the Dow numbered 7 and were led by Walt Disney (DIS -1.75% to $28.15) and American International Group (AIG -0.67% to $68.19); Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 330.8m shares to 65m.

The broader S&P500 added 9.4 points (0.79%), to end the session at 1200.2. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite added 20.45 points (1.01%), to close at 2051.7, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 20.62 points (1.38%), to end at 1517.71 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.52 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was super-chunky (over 2 bill), with 2.05 billion shares traded.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
DJIA	10748.79	75	0.7%
S&P500	1200.2	9.4	0.79%
Nasdaq Composite	2051.7	20.45	1.01%
Nasdaq100	1517.71	20.62	1.38%
NYSE Volume	1.52bn	-	-
Nasdaq Volume	2.05bn	-	-

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.47%, although it is interesting to note that Citigroup didn't participate.

General Electric (GE) +$0.50 (1.43%) to $35.55;
Citigroup (C) -$0.08 (0.17%) to $48.30;
Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.14 (0.27%) to $51.46;
I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.54 (0.59%) to $92.64;
Intel (INTC) +$0.39 (1.67%) to $23.70;
Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.10 (0.58%) to $17.18;
eBay (EBAY) +$0.53 (1.27%) to $42.37;
Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.21 (0.37%) to $56.95; and
Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.39 (0.65%) to $60.50.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2301 to 1070 for a single-day A/D reading of 1231; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1905 to 1217.

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1082.2 to 400.6 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 1412.9 to 614.2 million shares.

197 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 34 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 84 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 65 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

	NYSE	Nasdaq
Advancers	2301	1905
Decliners	1070	1217
Advancing Volume (m)	1082.24	1412.94
Declining Volume (m)	400.58	614.2
New Highs	197	84
New Lows	34	65

Market Sentiment

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
CBOE Volatility Index	11.57	-0.86	-6.92%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index	17.61	-0.87	-4.71%
Equity Put-Call Ratio	0.54	-0.21	-28%
10-day PCR	0.66	-0.03	-4%
SPX-VIX Ratio	103.73	7.9333	8.28%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds were down across the yield curve. There was an early pop following the Durable Goods orders numbers. The Durables number initially looked terrible based on the headline fall of 0.9% (consensus expected an increase of 0.3%), but then - once the nuffies' stops had been tickled and professional data-crunchers looked at the number that mattered within the report (repeat after me... non-defence capex ex aircraft) they saw a rise of 2.9%. Now I may not believe that the number represents anything worth a damn, but for "data-traders" - the sorts of dills who take Government propaganda at face value - it was a signal to sell bonds.

So anyhow - the long bond ended up pretty much unchanged by the end of all the furore, with the 30-year MArch bond future (ZB05H) settling at 113 & 28/32 and the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond ticking up ever so slightly to 4.663%.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
UST 13wk (yld)	2.637	0	0%
UST 2Y (yld)	3.47	0.04	1.17%
UST 5Y (yld)	3.895	0.03	0.85%
UST 10Y (yld)	4.281	0.013	0.3%
UST 30Y (yld)	4.663	0.002	0.04%

The Banks Index gained 0.47 points (0.48%), ending the day at 99.38; within the index,

Golden West Financial (GDW) +$1.31 (2.18%) to $61.42;
M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$1.53 (1.58%) to $98.57;
Washington Mutual (WM) +$0.57 (1.38%) to $41.93;
PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.71 (1.37%) to $52.36; and
Keycorp (KEY) +$0.42 (1.29%) to $32.93.

The Broker-dealer Index added 0.38 points (0.26%), closing at 145.53; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

Legg Mason (LM) +$1.24 (1.57%) to $80.20;
E*Trade (ET) +$0.13 (1.01%) to $12.98;
Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.10 (0.96%) to $10.55;
Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.29 (0.78%) to $37.26; and
Raymond James (RJF) +$0.23 (0.78%) to $29.80.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index rose 10.13 points (2.39%), closing at 434.15

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) +$1.02 (6.14%) to $17.62;
Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$1.34 (4.75%) to $29.57;
Infineon Tech (IFX) +$0.33 (3.19%) to $10.66;
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) +$1.19 (2.85%) to $42.88; and
Altera (ALTR) +$0.56 (2.8%) to $20.59.

Gold & Silver Markets

[Commentary]

Gold fell by $1.1 (0.25%) to close at $434.9 per ounce.

Gold Bugs Index lost 2.15 points (0.99%), at 214.62

Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.16 (3.77%) to $4.08;
Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.22 (3.74%) to $5.67;
Iamgold (IAG) -$0.24 (3.26%) to $7.12;
Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.07 (2.26%) to $3.03; and
Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.37 (1.81%) to $20.07.

Silver fell by $0.06 (0.8%) to close at $7.4 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 1.16 points (1.16%), at 98.53 points.

Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.38 (25.5%) to $1.11;
Placer Dome (PDG) -$1.18 (6.23%) to $17.75;
Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.37 (1.81%) to $20.07; and
Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.64 (1.75%) to $35.88.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Gold	434.9	-1.1	-0.25%
Silver	7.398	-0.06	-0.8%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index	98.53	-1.16	-1.16%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index	214.62	-2.15	-0.99%

Oil Market

[Commentary]

Oil was firmer, rising by $0.20 per barrel, closing at $51.41 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 12.69 points (1.52%), closing at 847.58

Exxon Mobil (XOM) +$1.71 (2.88%) to $61.13;
Amerada Hess (AHC) +$2.78 (2.86%) to $99.90; and
ConocoPhillips (COP) +$2.98 (2.78%) to $110.18.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index advanced 1.75 points (1.26%), ending the day at 141.05

Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.41 (4.3%) to $9.95;
Varco International (VRC) +$1.35 (3.89%) to $36.01; and
GlobalSantaFe (GSF) +$0.76 (2.05%) to $37.78.

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
Reuters CRB	298.04	-1.12	-0.37%
Crude Oil Light Sweet	51.41	0.2	0.39%
Heating Oil	1.464	-0.0191	-1.29%
Natural Gas	6.304	-0.001	-0.02%
Unleaded Gas	1.28	-0.0314	-2.39%
AMEX Oil Index	847.58	12.69	1.52%
Oil Service Index	141.05	1.75	1.26%

Currency Markets

[Commentary]

Index	Close	Gain(Loss)	%
US Dollar Index	82.9	0.18	0.22%
Euro	1.32	-0.0013	-0.1%
Yen	105.38	0.56	0.53%
Sterling	1.9099	0.0012	0.06%
Australian Dollar	0.7864	0.0001	0.01%
Swiss Franc	1.1685	0.0053	0.46%
Canadian Dollar	0.8069	0.002	0.25%

Euro-Zone Indices

Country	Index	Last	%	%
France	CAC 40	3977.67	0.48	0.01%
Germany	DAX-30	4304.29	-6.37	-0.15%
UK	FTSE 100	4972.1	-16.4	-0.33%
Italy	MIBTel	24085	38	0.16%

European Index Internals

	CAC-40	DAX-30	FTSE-100
Advancers	17	13	37
Decliners	21	17	60
Advancing Volume (m)	149.8	57.3	736.3
Declining Volume (m)	45.6	56.6	938.6

Euro STOXX-50 Largest Volume

Name	Close (€)	Change	%	Volume
Vivendi Universal	23.91	0.2	0.84%	5189638
Unilever Cert	49.9	-0.17	-0.34%	3112637
Unicredito	4.395	-0.01	-0.2%	415537
Total	175.4	0.3	0.17%	3811666
Tim	5.195	-0.01	-0.19%	372989

CAC-40 Largest Gainers

Name	Close (€)	Change	%	Volume
Cap Gemini	27.85	1.76	6.75%	8193813
Peugeot	49.5	1.5	3.13%	1905713
Arcelor	18.49	0.54	3.01%	3326216
Renault	68.45	1.45	2.16%	1394070
AXA	19.86	0.37	1.9%	13502708

CAC-40 Largest Decliners

Name	Close (€)	Change	%	Volume
Veolia Environ	25.58	-0.52	-1.99%	2710920
Saint-Gobain	45.61	-0.84	-1.81%	2871983
Suez	19.97	-0.31	-1.53%	6680365
Lafarge	76.5	-1.15	-1.48%	1782868
l'Oreal	58.85	-0.6	-1.01%	1129304

FTSE Largest Gainers

Name	Close (£)	Change	%	Volume
Yell Group	4.64	-0.02	-0.38%	2266726
Xstrata	10.45	0.05	0.48%	6081890
WPP Group	5.855	0.02	0.26%	14897338
Wolseley	11.18	0.1	0.9%	4635165
William Hill	5.935	0.09	1.45%	2076231

FTSE Largest Decliners

Name	Close (£)	Change	%	Volume
3I Group	6.965	0.04	0.51%	2357784
Alliance & Leics	8.905	-0.14	-1.49%	4482505
Alliance Unichem	7.2	-0.56	-7.22%	5246677
Allied Domecq	5.205	-0.07	-1.33%	6575304
Amvescap	3.37	-0.07	-2.11%	6640684

DAX-30 Largest Gainers

Name	Close (€)	Change	%	Volume
HypoVereinsbank	17.79	0.94	5.58%	19098128
Fresenius Medical	66.96	2.71	4.22%	547408
Tui	19.02	0.43	2.31%	1813488
Infineon Tech	8	0.16	2.04%	15247527
Deutsche Boerse	53.81	0.8	1.51%	3008691

DAX-30 Largest Decliners

Name	Close (€)	Change	%	Volume
RWE	45.03	-1.57	-3.37%	7303477
E.On	67.27	-0.91	-1.33%	3599560
Henkel	67.14	-0.88	-1.29%	575248
Schering	54.26	-0.64	-1.17%	631640
Altana	46.27	-0.39	-0.84%	294390

Thursday, February 24, 2005

OzRant: Opening Orgasm, and Resources Reverse Hard

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Hmmm... a decent-sized intraday reversal in the big Resources: RIO fell 3% from its high to its close, BHP dropped 1.8% from its high to its close, and even takeover darling WMC Resources (WMR) fell a percent from its high. And yet all of them closed well off their lows. What could this bode?

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 16.70 points (-0.41%), finishing at 4086.70 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4120.60 and its low was 4086.7.

Blind Freddie ought to be able to discern that since the market closed at its low, the trend was down (i.e., the market didn't close on a bounce off a low). In fact, as usual after a bounce in the States, the market roared upwards at the open, with the All Ords rising almost 20 points in the first ten minutes. Then, once all the hopeful nuffies were set, the selling began and continued solidly for the following two hours. There was a feeble bouncelet from about midday, but then the market sagged in the afternoon.

The Index that runs (and is run by) the SFE's Share Price index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 22.40 points (-0.54%), finishing at 4096.90 points. [Note to self: get the ASX200 breakdown into the internals table. It needs to be there].

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 15.10 points (-0.68%), finishing at 2206.30 points. Within the index members, there were 7 that rose, and 12 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 27.57 while volume in the losers totalled 74.26m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.40 (1.96%) to $20.83 on volume of 6.48m shares;
Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), +$0.17 (1.85%) to $9.37 on volume of 3.42m shares;
News Corporation (NWS), +$0.35 (1.66%) to $21.49 on volume of 6.72m shares;
St George Bank (SGB), +$0.16 (0.67%) to $24.16 on volume of 825,000 shares; and
Woolworths (WOW), +$0.07 (0.48%) to $14.78 on volume of 1.32m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

Amcor (AMC), -$0.19 (2.65%) to $6.99 on volume of 6.68m shares;
National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.69 (2.36%) to $28.51 on volume of 5.63m shares;
QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.32 (2.15%) to $14.53 on volume of 3.75m shares;
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.27 (1.41%) to $18.88 on volume of 3.87m shares; and
Alumina (AWC), -$0.07 (1.19%) to $5.80 on volume of 5.25m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 4.10 points (-0.17%), finishing at 2347.70 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

Psivida (PSD), +$0.11 (11.46%) to $1.07 on volume of 850,000 shares;
Consolidated Minerals (CSM), +$0.33 (10.19%) to $3.57 on volume of 928,000 shares;
MYOB (MYO), +$0.11 (9.82%) to $1.23 on volume of 3.71m shares;
AAV (AVV), +$0.10 (7.35%) to $1.46 on volume of 222,000 shares; and
Institute Of Drug Technology Australia (IDT), +$0.12 (6.38%) to $2.00 on volume of 11,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

Multiplex Group (MXG), -$0.94 (16.85%) to $4.64 on volume of 19.14m shares;
Schaffer Corporation (SFC), -$0.94 (9.04%) to $9.46 on volume of 53,000 shares; and
Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.17 (7.08%) to $2.23 on volume of 476,000 shares;
Tower (TWR), -$0.11 (6.21%) to $1.66 on volume of 1.21m shares; and
SDI (SDI), -$0.07 (5.83%) to $1.13 on volume of 502,000 shares.

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4086.7	-16.7	-0.41%	587.71m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2206.3	-15.1	-0.68%	102.73m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4040	-20.9	-0.51%	0
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3329.8	-19.2	-0.57%	0
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4096.9	-22.4	-0.54%	0
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4102.6	-22.3	-0.54%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3979.3	-37.3	-0.93%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2347.7	-4.1	-0.17%	185.06m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

	XAO	XSO	ASX20
Advances	150	71	7
Declines	224	89	12
Advancing Volume	219.35m	68.98m	27.57m
Declining Volume	290.74m	77.57m	74.26

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Industrials which gained 1.95% to 4986.80 points. The sector was helped by

Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), +$0.22 (6.3%) to $3.71 on volume of 9.12m shares;
Brambles Industries (BIL), +$0.35 (4.63%) to $7.91 on volume of 16.81m shares;
Adsteam Marine (ADZ), +$0.07 (4.52%) to $1.62 on volume of 626,000 shares;
Prime Infrastructure Group (PIF), +$0.06 (4.29%) to $1.46 on volume of 1.58m shares; and
Coates Hire (COA), +$0.12 (2.78%) to $4.44 on volume of 300,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Consumer Discretionary which gained 0.49% to 2245.70 points. The sector leaders were -

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), +$0.30 (2.92%) to $10.56 on volume of 1.12m shares;
News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.40 (1.96%) to $20.83 on volume of 6.48m shares;
News Corporation (NWS), +$0.35 (1.66%) to $21.49 on volume of 6.72m shares;
Seven Network (SEV), +$0.12 (1.58%) to $7.71 on volume of 902,000 shares; and
Billabong International (BBG), +$0.13 (0.98%) to $13.33 on volume of 1.91m shares.

The bronze today went to Consumer Staples which gained 0.32% to 5354.80 points. The sector was led by

Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.06 (2.96%) to $2.09 on volume of 3.8m shares;
Burns, Philp & Company (BPC), +$0.02 (2.13%) to $0.96 on volume of 4.43m shares;
Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), +$0.17 (1.85%) to $9.37 on volume of 3.42m shares;
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL), +$0.11 (1.4%) to $7.97 on volume of 1.46m shares; and
Woolworths (WOW), +$0.07 (0.48%) to $14.78 on volume of 1.32m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost 2.02% to 1763.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by

Multiplex Group (MXG), -$0.94 (16.85%) to $4.64 on volume of 19.14m shares;
General Property Trust (GPT), -$0.10 (2.67%) to $3.65 on volume of 4.03m shares; and
Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.03 (2.38%) to $1.23 on volume of 2.45m shares;
Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.03 (2.34%) to $1.25 on volume of 966,000 shares; and
Investa Property Group (IPG), -$0.04 (1.96%) to $2.00 on volume of 3.37m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Utilities which lost 1.44% to 4612.50 points. The sector was pulled down by

Alinta (ALN), -$0.42 (4.86%) to $8.23 on volume of 1.41m shares;
Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.03 (1.2%) to $2.47 on volume of 509,000 shares;
Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.08 (0.57%) to $14.06 on volume of 1.54m shares;
Pacific Hydro (PHY), -$0.01 (0.23%) to $4.39 on volume of 303,000 shares; and
Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.00 (0%) to $3.85 on volume of 127,000 shares.

Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XNJ	Industrials	4986.8	95.6	1.95%	57.9m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2245.7	10.9	0.49%	54.75m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5354.8	17	0.32%	24.04m
XHJ	Healthcare	4754.4	4.7	0.1%	15.66m
XMJ	Materials	7213	-58.1	-0.8%	114.42m
XEJ	Energy	7494.4	-61	-0.81%	21.62m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1852.4	-17.2	-0.92%	18.92m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	4882.9	-48.4	-0.98%	76.07m
XFJ	Financials	4825.5	-59.1	-1.21%	163.4m
XIJ	Information Technology	366	-4.7	-1.27%	9.69m
XUJ	Utilities	4612.5	-67.3	-1.44%	4.83m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1763.5	-36.4	-2.02%	89.81m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
RMI	Resource Mining Corporation	0.14	-0.01	-3.45%	20.91m
MXG	Multiplex Group	4.64	-0.94	-16.85%	19.14m
AZR	Aztec Resources	0.23	0.01	2.22%	18.15m
AUO	Austral Coal	1.21	0.07	6.14%	17.65m
TLS	Telstra Corporation.	5.24	-0.05	-0.95%	17.17m
BIL	Brambles Industries	7.91	0.35	4.63%	16.81m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PSD	Psivida	1.07	0.11	11.46%	850369
CSM	Consolidated Minerals	3.57	0.33	10.19%	928096
MYO	MYOB	1.23	0.11	9.82%	3.71m
ERA	Energy Resources Of Australia	12	0.95	8.6%	101919
ALU	Altium	0.38	0.03	8.57%	366928

All Ordinaries Top Losers

Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PLT	Polartechnics	0.34	-0.04	-9.33%	273983
SFC	Schaffer Corporation	9.46	-0.94	-9.04%	52626
BBB	B Digital	0.52	-0.04	-7.14%	495916
SDG	Sunland Group	2.23	-0.17	-7.08%	475740
BOC	Bougainville Copper	0.54	-0.04	-6.9%	245666

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 57.68 points (0.50%) to close at 11557.86 points. [Note to self: don't be a lazy-ass; get the damned Nikkei analytics set up].

The Kiwi Market declined 0.93 points (-0.03%). A total of 16 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 15.3million units. Decliners numbered 22, and total volume traded in losers was 5.3million shares. Individual stocks that were a but suck included...

Tower Limited (TWR), -$0.09 (4.62%) to $1.86 on volume of 531,000 shares;
Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.10 (3.08%) to $3.15 on volume of 169,000 shares;
Tenon Limited (TEN), -$0.13 (2.78%) to $4.55 on volume of 24,000 shares;
Promina Group (PMN), -$0.15 (2.75%) to $5.30 on volume of 145,000 shares; and
Fisher & Paykel (FPH), -$0.08 (2.61%) to $2.99 on volume of 1.87m shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 21.37 points (0.15%). Within the Hang Seng, 13 index components rose, while 11 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 48.4million units, and total volume traded in losers was 13.7million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

Esprit Holdings (0330), +$4.75 (10.11%) to $51.75 on volume of 10.91m shares;
Lenovo Group (0992), +$0.03 (1.15%) to $2.20 on volume of 4.65m shares;
Li & Fung (0494), +$0.10 (0.77%) to $13.10 on volume of 5.08m shares;
China Merchant Holdings (0144), +$0.10 (0.64%) to $15.65 on volume of 1.6m shares;
Henderson Land (0012), +$0.20 (0.55%) to $36.30 on volume of 528,000 shares; and
Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +$0.10 (0.48%) to $20.95 on volume of 318,000 shares.

Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	3145.391	-0.93	-0.03%	23.41m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11557.86	57.68	0.5%	49115
Korea	KOSPI	986.9	18.47	1.91%	502340
Singapore	Straits Times	2156.46	20.04	0.94%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13979.31	21.37	0.15%	141.91m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	902.97	3.29	0.37%	0