Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Odds still favour a new low today...

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The September S&Ps have been as low as 1093.50 on this swing; the only thing holding them up now is the requirement for the Dow (cash) to go back through "UNCH". There is also a tendency for the Dow futures to bounce at "quarters and halves".. that is, numbers that end in 25,50,75 and 00 - and at the minute YMU4 can't get decisively below 10075.
Look at the SOX (down over 3%) and the Nasdaq100 (down 0.6%); much weaker than the S&P and the Dow. It's the flight from trash.
Still, maybe think about shifting stops down to 1095.50 just to lock in a point (and when it gets to a new low, move the stop to 1094). Nothing is more annoying than to get stopped out with nothing after the trade's been up 3 points (it is also bad trade management).
The only reason I say that is because the inordinate weakness in the SOX means that there might be some daytrader short-covering in tech during the last half-hour, which might put a teensie squeeze on into the close. A lot depends on the Market on Close imbalances (first indications are pulished in ten minutes); if they are negative, the odds of the market continuing to dcline into the close get higher.