Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, November 30, 2004

OzRant: Looking for Short Entries...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Economic Statistics

The market's now-mindless optimism was dealt comething of a shock today with the release of much softer-than-expected economic data.

  • Building Approvals were expected to be flat, but they actually fell by 2.4% - taking the total decline over the last 7 months to 16.4%;
  • Retail Trade was expected to grow by 0.7%, but it contracted by the same amount (maybe they just got the sign wrong...);
  • Market Crack Cocaine shipments (oops, I meant Consumer Credit) rose by 1.2% for the month and 13.9% year-on-year, while a subcomponent - lending for housing - rose 1% for the month.

All things considered (yesterday's Banana Repubic balance of trade, for example), this does not represent an economy that is in good fundamental shape; the only "good" indicator is that the government rapes more money off taxpayers than it wastes.

You might call that "fiscal prudence", but frankly that's crap. When 50c in almost every dollar of private sector income goes to the government in direct or indirect taxes, the government has absolutely no excuse to ever run a deficit.

Major Market Indices

Another record high... but it was a squeaker.

I read a piece of supposedly "institutional research" the other day - one that emanated from one of the newly-merged gangs of ticket-clippers. It sounded like it was written by the sales department, or someone from Danoz Direct or the Shopping Channel.

4000 is "just a matter of time"... blah blah blah.

Sure thing, dickhead - but then what?

Honestly, if that's the sort of output that insto readers are getting, what sort of dross do retail clients get?

I won't name names, ... sure I will. It was Goldman Sachs JB Were and if they had any dignity they would be ashamed ofthemselves. And you thought Merrill were wankers!

It is my hope that eventually brokers will get paid what they're worth - nothing - and that there will be one brokerage firm (let's call it TDGSMerrillWereOrdsMorganCommSecSanford) which will just be 3 PCs and a little chap with a funny accent to make sure they all run OK.

I'm digressing again...

XAO intraday 1-minute Chart - today...

As you can see from the chart, there were basically 2 "trades" during the day - one before lunch, and one after. Two little "moonshots" driven primarily by arb traders and some insto money. Any time apart from that was as boring as a brokers barbeque.

I have to consult with The Red Menace, but it smells to me like we are running out of gas; Christmas Rally be damned.

XAOAll Ordinaries3942.84.70.12%620.55m
XTLS&P/ASX 202102.37.40.35%131.11m
XFLS&P/ASX 503861.850.13%271.31m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003190.94.60.14%407.1m
XJOS&P/ASX 2003931.34.50.11%506.04m
XKOS&P/ASX 3003940.24.40.11%570.71m
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503868.99.40.24%135.79m
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2308-6.4-0.28%163.6m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

More stocks fell than rose - by a decent margin - but volume was tilted just as strongly to the gainers. Smells like "circling the wagons".

Advancing Volume (m)332.27
Declining Volume (m)225.77

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

WOW and CML had a rest after making multi-period highs yesterday, which dragged down the crappily-named "Consumer Staples" sector and weighed on the market more broadly as major Resources stocks also had a rest. Property Trusts were bought - another example of wagion-circling.

CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XDJConsumer Discretionary2338.510.60.46%38.28m
XSJConsumer Staples5397.4-40.8-0.75%36.6m
XIJInformation Technology371.30.90.24%8.74m
XPJProperty Trusts1773.510.30.58%60.54m
XXJASX200 ex Property Trusts4644.10.80.02%80.7m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

LIOLion Energy0.0108.33%48.25m
CULCullen Resources0.0690.0118.97%44.11m
CAZCazaly Rsc0.650.38136.36%43.7m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

SRISipa Resources0.150.0325%6.49m
HWEHenry Walker Eltin0.570.059.62%7.91m

All Ordinaries Top Losers

PSGPalm Springs0.15-0.02-9.09%727000
OMIOccupational Med1.4-0.1-6.67%54915
CGXCentral Asia Gold0.66-0.04-5.71%113500
NHCNew Hope Corp1.51-0.09-5.63%203311

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei was soft after economic data showed that the Japanese economy was softer than expected. The Kiwi market was far more impressive than their cricket team (who really aren't a proper Test side; they are terrific at proper Rugby, but they - along with Bangladesh - should be chucked out of Test cricket).

The KOSPI was the best-performed market in the region, which is odd considering that South Korea is - by virtue of its proximity to North Korea - in a great deal of danger at present. perhaps traders in the South think that the Yanks are going to have their hands full with Iran for the foreseeable future.

New ZealandNZSE502990.7962.490.08%25.3m
JapanNikkei 22510899.25-78.64-0.72%67671
SingaporeStraits Times2040.561.840.09%57.48m
Hong KongHang Seng14098.6831.770.23%579.71m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp911.6-4.3-0.47%42.88m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

SPI04ZSPI200 Index SFE3922-13-0.33%17942
IR04Z90-day Bank Bills SFE94.720.040.04%88574
YT04Z3-yr Bond SFE95.010.040.04%108226
XT04Z10-yr Bond SFE94.770.010.01%29077