Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, November 26, 2004

OzRant: These Records are Getting Old...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

First, some pre-Rant ranting...

Did anybody see how the Productivity Commission spent a fortune of tax-rape-victim's money to show that demographic trends spell the death of Social Security in its current form?

God Stab my Vitals... all they had to do was wait for me to write about it (in this very space, about 2 days ago) and they could've sacked all those half-wits they employ. Plus, there would've been less pansy-assed equivocation in the analysis.

Are they a sheltered workshop, or what? Talk about statingthe bloody obvious. What's next? A $10 million study to discover that it rarely rains in Camooweal?

Major Market Indices

Another day, another record. Everybody is now engaged in a game of pass the parcel - and hope nobody hears the ticking.

A lot of this is driven my "me-too"-ism in the funds mis-management industry; these overpaid duds face limited futures if they deviate from the crowd (unless they outperform, which is so unlikely as to be not worth considering)... so basically every "active" equities manager is basically an index manager with a couple of "overweights".

Like the clown who used to run portfolios for BT, and wound up with 120 million One.Tel shares; then finds out that if you're managing a supertanker you can't just get out when the thing turns. Still, he left with a 7-figure golden parachute, and only the unitholders were unhappy.

The index started out looking a bit sad, but changed its mind (in a big way) at about 10:30 a.m. Australian time. Little do they know that the US is about to change its mind, unless I miss my guess...

All Ordinaries (ASX:XAO) 5-minute intraday chart

XAOAll Ordinaries3922.98.10.21%629.04m
XTLS&P/ASX 202084.96.40.31%159.43m
XFLS&P/ASX 503840.810.20.27%292.98m
XTOS&P/ASX 100317480.25%397.92m
XJOS&P/ASX 2003912.17.90.2%510.85m
XKOS&P/ASX 3003921.57.70.2%582.08m
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503852.470.18%104.95m
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2310.5-9.4-0.41%184.16m

Market Internals (All Ordinaries Stocks)

Despite the headline numbers, more stocks in the All Ords fell than rose for the session. Volume was concentrated in the gainers by a ratio of 32 to 19.

Advancing Volume320035434
Declining Volume190138334

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The continued strength in oil prices - and the "dumb money" trying to buy BHP at a high - gave some additional pep to the Energy and Materials sectors, while the higher-risk (by assumption rather than analysis) Information Tech sector was the worst performed.

CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XDJConsumer Discretionary2307.3-2.9-0.13%42.75m
XSJConsumer Staples5361.6500.94%41.57m
XIJInformation Technology366.3-3.1-0.84%5.57m
XPJProperty Trusts1762.27.30.42%41.98m
XXJASX200 ex Property Trusts4631.5-7.8-0.17%62.81m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

It looks like it's official - BHP Billiton is the new News Corpse. Obviously having an overseas listed analog yields arb possibilities - of which more at some future date.

Telstra's insto shareholders appear to be over their little hissy-fit about Ziggy Stardust's non-exit. Considering that TLS generates the largest free cash flow of any stock listed, they ought to have been positioning themselves in it, regardless of which quasi-politician is at "the helm".

To guess the rest of the major turnover list is hardly an IQ test; large-cap oil & gas stocks and gold stocks.

BHPBHP Billiton15.40.231.52%31.36m
WMRWMC Resources7.260.010.14%21.4m
LHGLihir Gold1.300.010.78%19.03m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Gainers

The fast-gainers are all the types of stocks that have gone gangbusters in recent months; fast moving, thinly (relatively) traded... good for a pump in a chat-room.

The fact that this sort of crap has re-surfaced is yet another indication of an impending market top.

PEPRPeplin Rights0.020.00211.11%491070
BBBB Digital0.4050.038%465080
LYCLynas Corp0.380.037.04%421076
MOSMosaic Oil0.2550.026.25%10m

All Ordinaries Top 5 % Losers

Man, HWE has taken an absolute hammering in recent times; have a look at the chart...

Henry Walker Eltin (ASX:HWE) Daily Chart

HWEHenry Walker Eltin0.47-0.04-7.84%13.3m
PSVPersever Corp0.39-0.02-4.88%4.17m
EOSElectro Optic3.35-0.15-4.29%37350

Elsewhere in the Region...

With the exception of the Nikkei and the KOSPI, the region had another pretty good day.

The Japanese seem to be acclimatising the the reality of a stronger Yen, although exprters were not particularly strong.

New ZealandNZSE502968.4939.460.32%23.5m
JapanNikkei 22510846.86-53.48-0.49%53683
SingaporeStraits Times2040.345.460.27%35.9m
Hong KongHang Seng13971.5144.90.32%217.53m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp910.124.90.54%66.09m

Main SFE Futures Contracts

SPI04ZSPI200 Index SFE3922100.26%9208
IR04Z90-day Bank Bills SFE94.630.010.01%80404
YT04Z3-yr Bond SFE94.94-0.01-0.01%90373
XT04Z10-yr Bond SFE94.7400%27922

Australian Economic Data Calendar

I have not been able to access the consensus estimates for next week's data; I will update this table as soon as I can to provide the consensus guess for each item

Monday, November 29, 2004
1130/0030/19303QCurrent Account-$11.97B
1130/0030/19303QCompany Profits10.3%
1130/0030/19303QBusiness Inventories1.1%
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
1130/0030/1930OctBuilding Approvals-na--3.8%
1130/0030/1930OctRetail Trade-na-0.8%
1130/0030/1930OctPrivate Sector Credit-na-0.9%