Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, December 22, 2004

OzRant: Onwards and Upwards...

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Major Market Indices

Yet another record - the market clearly has the bit between its teeth, and the devil take the hindmost. Yet another day where the market blasts out of the blocks and then can't move more than a few points from there.

XAO Intraday Chart

It reminds me so much of late 1999 that I get a shiver just thinking about it. The same sorts of stupid decisions are being made by the same sorts of idiots - both amateur and professional - as '99/00, and the fund mis-managers are playing "pass the ticking parcel" with anything that's got beta.

As I've said before, it's all well and good to pop champagne corks (or "sparkling wine" corks for those who are drinking stuff from a region that cannot use the Appelations Controlées) when the market reaches new heights every day for a week, but then what? Some of the dills pushing the indices around are controlling portfolios the size of supertankers, and as Rohan Headley (I think it was) discovered when he got caught with 130 million ONE shares, you can't just drop your holdings on the offer when things go feh.

Technically this market looks to be in a blowoff; fundamentally it still looks OK on most metrics - so long as money is seeking alpha rather than beta... but the funds mismanagement industry wouldn't know how to find alpha if it bit them on the ass.

Anyhow... the "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 10.40 points (0.49%), finishing at 2146.10 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside (WPL), +$0.27 (1.36%) to $20.08 on volume of 1.41m shares;
  • AMP (AMP), +$0.07 (0.99%) to $7.15 on volume of 3.9m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), +$0.07 (0.98%) to $7.21 on volume of 2.4m shares;
  • Westpac (WBC), +$0.18 (0.94%) to $19.30 on volume of 2.39m shares; and
  • News Corpse B (NWS), +$0.23 (0.93%) to $24.83 on volume of 3.81m shares

Meanwhile the following stocks brought up the rear (notice even the laggards rose):

  • Coles Myer (CML), -$0.07 (0.7%) to $9.86 on volume of 3.19m shares;
  • Fosters (FGL), -$0.03 (0.51%) to $5.84 on volume of 4.52m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.02 (0.13%) to $15.06 on volume of 2.15m shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.05 (0.18%) to $28.53 on volume of 3.22m shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA), +$0.10 (0.31%) to $31.85 on volume of 1.12m shares.

Meanwhile, the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale - the ASX Small Ordinaries - rose by 10.80 points (0.48%), finishing at 2283.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Tempo (TEM), +$0.12 (9.6%) to $1.37 on volume of 2.87m shares as its status as a takeover target was announced;
  • Transfield (TSE), +$0.43 (6.99%) to $6.58 on volume of 316,000 shares;
  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.22 (4.8%) to $4.80 on volume of 610,000 shares;
  • GRD (GRD), +$0.18 (6.87%) to $2.74 on volume of 338,000 shares; and
  • Globe Intl (GLB), +$0.02 (4.17%) to $0.50 on volume of 663,000 shares

Meanwhile the following stocks brought up the rear in the smaller end of the scale:

  • Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.56 (15.6%) to $3.03 on volume of 4.9m shares on a two-year profit warning;
  • AAV Ltd (AVV), -$0.13 (8.55%) to $1.39 on volume of 2.97m shares;
  • Psivida (PSD), -$0.11 (7.97%) to $1.27 on volume of 1.75m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.06 (5.31%) to $1.07 on volume of 1.08m shares; and
  • Bendigo Gold (BDG), -$0.04 (4.44%) to $0.86 on volume of 1.22m shares.
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4037.419.10.48%0
XTLS&P/ASX 202146.110.40.49%0
XFLS&P/ASX 503958.314.80.38%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003280.314.80.45%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004032.318.70.47%0
XKOS&P/ASX 3004037.118.30.46%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504049.9370.92%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2283.610.80.48%0

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Breadth was again overwhelmingly positive; advancers beat out decliners by almost 2:1 and volume was much more tilted toward advancing stocks (by a factor of over 3:1 in the All Ords but only just over 2:1 in the Small Ords). This is clearly a market where nobody is thinking of any downside (and listening to some of the absolute tripe being promulgated by ticket clippers and their touts, it's a straight line skyward until Doomsday... )

XAOXSO
Advances22399
Declines12755
Advancing Volume281.97m74.9m
Declining Volume87.27m31.83m

Broad Market Internals

Our teensy, tilted, not-worth-trading options market is trying to mimic the US for stupidity; an almost 2:1 tilt towards calls in options volume says as much about the current fluffy market condition as any other stat you care to name.

IndicatorLevel+/-%
Advances46981.74
Declines379-25-6.19
Unchanged31700
Total Traded Value2224-103-4.43
New 52 Week Highs6235.08
New 52 Week Lows20753.85
Equity Call Option Volume638551588433.11
Equity Put Option Volume33242688426.12

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Information Technology which gained 1.48% to 383.30 points. The sector was helped by

  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.11 (1.99%) to $5.65 on volume of 1.2m shares;
  • ERG Ltd (ERG), +$0.01 (1.75%) to $0.29 on volume of 1.48m shares;
  • IRESS (IRE), +$0.05 (1.31%) to $3.87 on volume of 118,000 shares;
  • Baycorp (BCA), +$0.02 (0.65%) to $3.08 on volume of 198,000 shares; and
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.00 (0%) to $1.37 on volume of 102,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Utilities which gained 1.40% to 4421.40 points. The sector leaders were -

  • AGL (AGL), +$0.27 (2.06%) to $13.38 on volume of 1.33m shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.14 (1.75%) to $8.15 on volume of 1.04m shares;
  • Envestra (ENV), +$0.01 (0.93%) to $1.08 on volume of 1.88m shares;
  • Aust Pipeline Units (APA), +$0.03 (0.9%) to $3.35 on volume of 148,000 shares; and
  • Duet (DUE), -$0.00 (0%) to $2.53 on volume of 862,000 shares.

The bronze today went to Consumer Discretionary which gained 0.80% to 2455.00 points. The sector was led by

  • Southern Cross (SBC), +$0.46 (3.04%) to $15.60 on volume of 57,000 shares;
  • WA News (WAN), +$0.23 (2.67%) to $8.83 on volume of 159,000 shares;
  • Austereo (AEO), +$0.04 (2.4%) to $1.71 on volume of 124,000 shares;
  • Miller's Retail (MRL), +$0.02 (2.04%) to $1.00 on volume of 1.02m shares; and
  • Pacbrands (PBG), +$0.05 (1.59%) to $3.20 on volume of 1.15m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Consumer Staples which lost 0.18% to 5578.80 points; it was the only sector which didn't advance today - and the principal reason was a change of leadership at Coles Myer (CML), although Southcorp (SRP -1.59%) didn't help. The only thing that happened to SRP was that a bunch of nuffnuffs who bought the news yesterday, got handed their heads as the stock closed below yesterday's "nuffie-spike" open. From now on I will refer to that as a Metabolic spike, in remembrance of all the MBP nuffnuffs who made sacrifices to Money Heaven. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Southcorp (SRP), -$0.06 (1.59%) to $3.71 on volume of 1.03m shares;
  • Coles Myer (CML), -$0.07 (0.7%) to $9.86 on volume of 3.19m shares;
  • Fosters (FGL), -$0.03 (0.51%) to $5.84 on volume of 4.52m shares;
  • Futuris (FCL), -$0.01 (0.48%) to $2.06 on volume of 3.04m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.02 (0.13%) to $15.06 on volume of 2.15m shares.

Just in front of the last place on the sector table was Healthcare which gained 0.03% to 4569.70 points. The sector was aided by

  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.21 (1.75%) to $12.21 on volume of 478,000 shares;
  • Sigma (SIG), +$0.11 (1.22%) to $9.13 on volume of 65,000 shares;
  • DCA Group (DVC), +$0.03 (0.84%) to $3.59 on volume of 750,000 shares;
  • Resmed (RMD), +$0.02 (0.31%) to $6.53 on volume of 120,000 shares; and
  • CSL (CSL), +$0.01 (0.03%) to $29.30 on volume of 316,000 shares.
Code GICS Sector Close +/- %
XIJ Information Technology 383.3 5.6 1.48%
XUJ Utilities 4421.4 61.2 1.4%
XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2455 19.5 0.8%
XPJ Property Trusts 1823.2 13.1 0.72%
XTJ Telecommunications 1742.2 11.4 0.66%
XFJ Financials 4795.7 25.7 0.54%
XXJ ASX200 ex Property Trusts 4798.4 23.3 0.49%
XEJ Energy 7003.1 25.7 0.37%
XMJ Materials 6638.1 24.3 0.37%
XNJ Industrials 4844.2 15.8 0.33%
XHJ Healthcare 4569.7 1.2 0.03%
XSJ Consumer Staples 5578.8 -10 -0.18%

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
ADY Admiralty 0.071

0.004

5.97%93.15m
OBJ Objectif 0.04 -0.001 -2.78%63.6m
HHG HHG Plc 1.430.021.42%59.65m
JRV Jervois 0.03 -0.002 -7.14%29.04m
NEO Nuenco 0.042 0.002 5%24.19m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
MSTMetal Storm0.280.039.8%4.72m
TEMTempo Services1.370.129.6%2.87m
ALUAltium0.3150.038.62%192517
TMO Tomato Technologies 0.750.057.14%460100
COUCount Financial1.240.086.9%99092

All Ordinaries Top Losers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
PBBPacifica Group3.02-0.57-15.88%4.88m
AVVAAV Ltd1.39-0.13-8.55%2.97m
PSDPsivida1.27-0.11-7.97%1.74m
BDG Bendigo Mining 0.86-0.04-4.44%1.22m
CMQChemeq1.08-0.05-4.42%1.07m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan and New Zealand had pretty good sessions, both rising by about three-quarters of a perrcent. The rest of the region looked anaemic. Only 12 stocks in the NZSE50 fell for the session, and leadership was provided by an odd bunch that look like Australian small and mid-caps...

  • Rubicon Limited (RBC), +$0.04 (3.88%) to $1.07 on volume of 126k shares;
  • Promina Group (PMN), +$0.20 (3.57%) to $5.80 on volume of 8k shares;
  • APN News & Media (APN), +$0.18 (3.33%) to $5.58 on volume of 209k shares;
  • Tenon Limited Pre (TENPA), +$0.04 (1.85%) to $2.20 on volume of 589k shares;
  • Tenon Limited Ord (TEN), +$0.04 (1.85%) to $2.20 on volume of 316k shares; and
  • The Warehouse Group (WHS), +$0.06 (1.61%) to $3.78 on volume of 249k shares.

Country Name Close +/- %
New Zealand NZSE50 2991.457 22.39 0.75%
Japan Nikkei 225 11208.03 82.11 0.74%
Korea KOSPI 883.56 0.74 0.08%
Singapore Straits Times 2063.79 0.2 0.01%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 14167.72 -13.07 -0.09%
Malaysia KLSE Comp 905.88 -0.62 -0.07%

Main SFE Futures Contracts

CodeInstrumentClose+/-%Volume
SPI04ZSPI200 Index SFE4042160.4%7674
IR04Z90-day Bank Bills SFE94.63-0.01-0.01%15441
YT04Z3-yr Bond SFE94.90.010.01%21622
XT04Z10-yr Bond SFE94.710.010.01%6300