Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Saturday, December 04, 2004

US Market - Technical Summary

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Here's another little thingo that I intend to sticky-tape into the Rant - as soon as I can think of a sensible way to "partition" what is rapidly beoming a "War & Peace"-length document each day.

What I was thinking, was to have these so-called Technical Summary woss-names for each market area that I intend to cover (Europe, Australia, the US). Down the track, there will also be a specific one for Precious Metals, Energy, Currencies, and Bonds; it will take me part of this week to get it all organised.

Under this structure, each day's OzRant (for example), would have, as an addendum, a Technical Summary which would give the technical "status" of the market is I see it.

It will also give me an excuse to move the Floor Pivot table out of the USRant and give it a home within the US Technical Summary - and to include tomorrow's SFE pivots in the OzRant Technicals (and DAX and Bund pivots in the European one, and so on and so forth).

I'm a habit-forming kind of guy (except for exercise.. I can't get that to become a habit). If I find something that works for me, and that makes sense at a semi-intuitive level, I'll tend to stick with it.

I use the same indicators (more or less) in all markets, but in some markets I might use them over a few different timeframes. In other words I'm not a believer in having seventeen different types of screwdriver: but I'm not stupid enough to think you can use a watchmakers' screwdriver to remove the central retaining screw on an SLR (you use a 10c piece to undo those... and anyway, you're not supposed to break the weapon down that far, even to clean it).

You will notice some things about the table below:

  • no MACD;
  • no Stochastics (fast, slow, or indifferent);
  • no RSI (I use an ergonomic keyboard... boom boom!)

There are several reasons why I don't use the indicators mentioned above - mostly because of their level-dependence and/or their inferior signal-to-noise ratio compared to the things I've chosen to form my "screwdriver set".

There are also no "Liberace Ratios" (Fib levels) in the table - that's something that's in the works for an upcoming Subscriber offering (along with US options stuff, and intraday e-mail & SMS alerts based on shorter timeframes as opt-in add-ons).

The Subscriber technicals stuff will also include information on divergences - for example when price makes a higher high that is unconfirmed by, say, the RoC (that is currently happening in the S&P500; price has forged higher over the last 2 weeks, but the RoC is declining). Check the chart below (courtesy of note that the %R is not smoothed [I prefer it smoothed]).

See: RoC moving down as price rises...

Becoming a subscriber requires you to "Contribute" via the Paypal button in the top left hand corner; you'll then be sent a link to the Subscriber area (once it's active - it's nearly built and I'll be testing it this week).

You'll also need to let me know what markets you're interested in: at present the main focuses are

  • US options;
  • US index and bond futures;
  • European index futures;
  • Australian index futures;
  • "Exploitable Australian Corporate Actions" via The Red Menace;
  • Precious Metals;
  • Energy; and
  • Currencies.

An extensive Aussie equities offering - with valuation tools, plus a nifty table of stocks with high-probability technical setups - is also on the development schedule. I'm ignoring Australian options and warrants because the market is too rigged to trade.

I don't particularly care about the amount contributed - but if you think this little corner of Blog-o-space is worth reading, and you're an active trader, you will find the "next level" is well worth whatever number you decide on.

I tend to value things based on what they "bring to the game"; if I make 1 tick a day from an S&P signal service - over and above what I would otherwise make - then that service is worth US$12.50 a day per contract traded. If it charges less than the aggregate (contracts times ticks per day), I'm in. (I only use 1 service nowadays ... my own self - but I used to pay USD$250 a month plus USD$170 a month for data, and it was worth every penny and then some).

Folks who are fair-dinkum traders (particularly in index & bond futures) are encouraged to think hard at the end of each month about what worked and how well, and use that as the basis for the next month's contribution (if any). My catchcry for commodities and options trades is "If you can't make it double, your account's in trouble".

Those who've already contributed (thanks) have helped fund all of the expansions that folks have seen thus far. They get status and will get everything I ever develop, without any further contributory requirement. The subs package will not be ready for at least another week, and the Australian Equities tools will be another 2-3 weeks at least - so this is really just a "heads up".

Anyway - enough about the subscriber crap already!

I'll prepare a little burble on each indicator in the freebies area, and explain how I get my Short Term Trend (STT) and Medium Term Trend (MTT) conditions. I'll try and do it later today - after brekkie and a bit of time helping my Mum put up Christmas decorations... Jesus was a big fan of tinsel and snow-spray, apparently (just kidding).

US Market - Technical Summary

DowTransportsS&P500Nasdaq CompNasdaq100
%RMA ConditionNeutralNeutralNeutralOverboughtOverbought
ROC ConditionNeutralOverboughtNeutralOverboughtOverbought
Money Flow0.30.380.30.450.34
MF ConditionAccAccAccAccAcc

Monday's Pivots (US Futures Market)

R2106861202.371641113 26/32
R1106321195.831626112 30/32
Pivot105981191.771618.5111 23/32
S1105441185.231603.5110 27/32
S2105101181.171596109 20/32