Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, January 24, 2005

Not Perfect, But Not Bad...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Those on the RantPro COMFUT and RantPro INDFUT mail lists got value for no money... we were looking for early support at 1167 (posted when the market was at 1171) so long as 1167 held during Globex - with a target at 1172. The bias was to the long side, given the oversold conditions established Friday. I doubt that too many folks expected a 4 point pullback at or near the open, but that's pretty much what happened.

Special consideration was to be given to the Fed's repurchase activity - as always, it is our belief that if there's no decent sized repo there will be no decent rally that "sticks". (Repo was only $4 bill).

The early lows were 1168.25 and 1168.00; after registering each low the market bounced 5 points (the first time) and then 6.5 points (off 1168).

The market gave back every tick (and then some) - again, consistent with the "insufficient repo" doctrine. Still, if the market gives you a chance to get positioned within 1.5 points of previously-declared support, with well-specified targets that are 4 points higher than entry... and oes so twice...

The market has been as low as 1167 within the last ten minutes - another test of the same support, and it bounced 2 points very swiftly.

Those on the list will recall the key closing level for tonight, without which further upside is highly unlikely. (It's for that reason that I'm not posting the entire contents of the list message from last night: non-subscribers have to wait until after the call is extinguished before getting the whole thing).