Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

OzRant: Not Looking Too Flash...

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Major Market Indices

Our market just can't help itself at the open - it's got to start the day with a green bar. Sure enough, it rose pretty handily for the first half hour, stuttered in the second half hour... and the rest of the day you could hear a slow hisssss as the air leaked out. The Futures almost touched 4100, but backed off hard just as the level was in sight. Fortunately for the market the futures found buyers at 4050 in the afternoon, permitting a little arb-based bounce into the close... a close under 4050 in the cash index would have been very danger.

XAO Intraday 15-minute Chart

(Click on Chart to Enlarge)

 

By the close, the All Ordinaries was showing a drop of 13.5 points (0.33%) to 4065.5 and the ASX200 was down 0.37% to 4062. The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 6.30 points (-0.29%), finishing at 2144.90 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • AMP (AMP), +$0.17 (2.29%) to $7.60 on volume of 9.01m shares;
  • Fosters (FGL), +$0.10 (1.9%) to $5.37 on volume of 22.14m shares;
  • QBE Insurance (QBE), +$0.12 (0.78%) to $15.45 on volume of 1.14m shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.20 (0.7%) to $28.85 on volume of 3.47m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.06 (0.41%) to $14.66 on volume of 2.5m shares;

The following stocks were the biggest duds in the big guns:

  • Woodside (WPL), -$0.69 (3.23%) to $20.68 on volume of 2.24m shares;
  • Westfield (WDC), -$0.26 (1.5%) to $17.13 on volume of 6.02m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.43 (1.09%) to $39.06 on volume of 635,000 shares;
  • St.George (SGB), -$0.26 (1.04%) to $24.75 on volume of 1.59m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.05 (1.02%) to $4.86 on volume of 25.63m shares;

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries index underperformed the broader market, shedding 10.20 points (-0.43%), finishing at 2350.20 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Miller's (MRL), +$0.11 (11.11%) to $1.10 on volume of 9.24m shares;
  • Macmahon (MAH), +$0.05 (9.28%) to $0.53 on volume of 4.76m shares;
  • Macarthur Coal (MCC), +$0.27 (5.71%) to $5.00 on volume of 433,000 shares;
  • Funtastic (FUN), +$0.09 (4.69%) to $2.01 on volume of 1.25m shares; and
  • Invocare (IVC), +$0.15 (4.44%) to $3.53 on volume of 184,000 shares.

The following stocks were the worst performed in the Small Ords:

  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), -$0.01 (5.13%) to $0.19 on volume of 6.56m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.09 (4.95%) to $1.73 on volume of 950,000 shares;
  • GRD NL (GRD), -$0.12 (4.58%) to $2.50 on volume of 127,000 shares;
  • Antares (AZZ), -$0.03 (4.05%) to $0.71 on volume of 491,000 shares; and
  • Perilya (PEM), -$0.04 (4.04%) to $0.95 on volume of 728,000 shares.

 

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4065.5-13.5-0.33%0
XTLS&P/ASX 202144.9-6.3-0.29%0
XFLS&P/ASX 503976.2-12.1-0.3%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003299.7-11.5-0.35%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004062-14.9-0.37%0
XKOS&P/ASX 3004069.2-14.4-0.35%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504106.9-24.9-0.6%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2350.2-10.2-0.43%0

All Ordinaries Market Internals

There's still not been any real acceleration to the downside (but who am I kidding? The Oz market won't do squat without leadership from the US... The Oz market making a move without getting the OK from New York is about as likely as our Government doing anything without getting a fax from Washington), but the market internals are definitely worsening.

 

XAOXSO
Advances14458
Declines220101
Advancing Volume154.68m49.21m
Declining Volume296.33m92.93m

Broad Market Internals

IndicatorLevel+/-%
Advances396-139-25.98
Declines4789825.79
Unchanged3415720.07
Total Traded Value280040016.67
New 52 Week Highs65-2-2.99
New 52 Week Lows10-1-9.09
Equity Call Option Volume417709962.44
Equity Put Option Volume38339668721.13

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

Only two of the abominably-named Gyeacccchhh sectors rose for the day.

The top sector for the day was Consumer Staples which gained just 0.12% to 5462.70 points. The sector was helped by a bounce in Foster's after yesterdays completely-deserved shellacking. If the market was smart enough to take the stock price to the woodshed every time the Board's judgement got interfered with by their gonads, the practice of hostile takeovers would disappear faster than your average CEO could say "But all my Executive options are tied to the stock price!!".

  • Fosters (FGL), +$0.10 (1.9%) to $5.37 on volume of 22.14m shares;
  • SPC Ardmona (SPC), +$0.02 (0.91%) to $2.21 on volume of 1.68m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.06 (0.41%) to $14.66 on volume of 2.5m shares;
  • Foodland (FOA), +$0.05 (0.21%) to $23.80 on volume of 221,000 shares; and
  • National Foods (NFD), +$0.01 (0.16%) to $6.27 on volume of 889,000 shares;

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Healthcare which was as near to unchanged as makes no odds, losing just 0.02% to 4708.70 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Invocare (IVC), +$0.15 (4.44%) to $3.53 on volume of 184,000 shares;
  • Novogen (NRT), +$0.16 (3.09%) to $5.34 on volume of 125,000 shares;
  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.02 (1.56%) to $1.30 on volume of 897,000 shares;
  • Ramsay (RHC), +$0.07 (0.97%) to $7.27 on volume of 149,000 shares; and
  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.07 (0.77%) to $9.18 on volume of 363,000 shares;

There was no bronze medal in the advancing sectors race today, because the third-placed GYECCCH sector - ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts - actually fell. Only by 0.02%, but a fall is a fall and you don't get a bronze for a negative result. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Bank of Qld (BOQ), -$0.25 (2.29%) to $10.65 on volume of 231,000 shares;
  • IOOF (IFL), -$0.15 (1.73%) to $8.50 on volume of 40,000 shares;
  • Australand Staple (ALZ), -$0.03 (1.69%) to $1.75 on volume of 1.12m shares;
  • Oamps (OMP), -$0.06 (1.65%) to $3.58 on volume of 124,000 shares; and
  • Promina (PMN), -$0.06 (1.11%) to $5.34 on volume of 1.68m shares;

The worst-performed sector today was Energy which lost 2.19% to 7206.40 points, despite oil being up above $49 a barrel as I write this. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Hardman (HDR), -$0.06 (3.39%) to $1.71 on volume of 3.92m shares;
  • Woodside (WPL), -$0.69 (3.23%) to $20.68 on volume of 2.24m shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), -$0.06 (3.03%) to $1.92 on volume of 5.77m shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.15 (2.14%) to $6.85 on volume of 809,000 shares; and
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.03 (1.74%) to $1.69 on volume of 698,000 shares;

Just in front of the last place on the sector table was Information Technology which lost 1.26% to 398.30 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Baycorp (BCA), -$0.12 (3.77%) to $3.06 on volume of 195,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.05 (0.83%) to $6.00 on volume of 583,000 shares;
  • Myob (MYO), -$0.01 (0.79%) to $1.25 on volume of 636,000 shares;
  • and
  • Vision (VSL), -$0.01 (0.69%) to $1.43 on volume of 304,000 shares.

 

CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XSJConsumer Staples5462.76.30.12%57.08m
XHJHealthcare4708.70.90.02%6.59m
XXJASX200 ex Property Trusts4840.6-0.8-0.02%47.03m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2368.6-5.1-0.21%34.8m
XFJFinancials4849-13.3-0.27%118.76m
XMJMaterials6772.5-23.2-0.34%85.98m
XUJUtilities4568.8-19-0.41%4.37m
XNJIndustrials4940.6-27.7-0.56%34.56m
XTJTelecommunications1742.4-15.1-0.86%27.1m
XPJProperty Trusts1857.9-21.4-1.14%77.75m
XIJInformation Technology398.3-5.1-1.26%3.55m
XEJEnergy7206.4-161.3-2.19%18.77m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
TLS Telstra Corporation 4.86-0.05-1.02%25.63m
FGLFosters5.37 0.10 1.9%22.14m
SRPSouthcorp4.51 -0.10 -2.17%18.38m
AZRAztec Res0.18-0.01-5.26%17.6m
NXSNexus0.51-0.11-17.74%14.85m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
IHG Intellect Holdings 0.0320.00414.29%3.66m
MRLMillers Retail1.10.1111.11%9.24m
MAH Macmahon Holdings 0.530.059.28%4.76m
QPXQPSX0.140.018%476207
BOCBougainville0.550.047.84%119689

All Ordinaries Top Losers

 

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
SPL Starpharma 0.82-0.05-5.75%368721
MOSMosaic Oil0.19-0.01-5.13%6.56m
TIR Titan Resources 0.076-0.004-5%1.14m
CMQChemeq1.73-0.09-4.95%950279
GRD GRD 2.5-0.12-4.58%126956

 

Elsewhere in the Region...

The Kiwi Market advanced 24.14 points (0.79%), in what was pretty much a "coast to coast" rally (look at the 15-minute chart)

NZSE Intraday 15-minute Chart

Click on Chart to Enlarge

That said, the weekly chart of the NZ market looks to have completed a 5-th wave extension (complete with a terminal "throwover" in subwave v of 5) within a 5-wave advance. That coincides with what I was on about in today's Sentiment Weekly ramble about the US market - namely, that we probably saw local tops in markets in late December and that any bounce rallies will likely stall. The weekly chart gives a fairly clear representation of this - check it out.

NZSE Weekly Chart

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Individual stocks that dud well included...

  • Pumpkin Patch Limited (PPL), +$0.08 (2.8%) to $2.94 on volume of 116,000 shares;
  • Fletcher Building (FBU), +$0.14 (2.16%) to $6.62 on volume of 1.19m shares;
  • Mainfreight Limited (MFT), +$0.05 (2.13%) to $2.40 on volume of 4,000 shares;
  • Port Of Tauranga (POT), +$0.11 (2%) to $5.62 on volume of 124,000 shares;
  • Trustpower Limited (TPW), +$0.10 (1.89%) to $5.40 on volume of 68,000 shares; and
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.15 (1.86%) to $8.20 on volume of 51,000 shares;

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 55.96 points (-0.41%). Individual stocks that contributed to the decline included...

  • CNOOC (0883), -$0.05 (1.24%) to $3.98 on volume of 33.98m shares;
  • Citic Pacific (0267), -$0.25 (1.19%) to $20.75 on volume of 972,000 shares;
  • Hong Kong & China (0003), -$0.15 (0.95%) to $15.70 on volume of 1.95m shares;
  • Hang Lung Properties (0101), -$0.10 (0.87%) to $11.35 on volume of 4.65m shares;
  • China Unicom Ltd (0762), -$0.05 (0.87%) to $5.70 on volume of 7.81m shares; and
  • China Mobile (Hon (0941), -$0.20 (0.82%) to $24.15 on volume of 11.06m shares;
CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
New ZealandNZSE503081.56224.140.79%16.39m
JapanNikkei 22511445.39-41.71-0.36%87575
KoreaKOSPI922.25-0.83-0.09%396945
SingaporeStraits Times2085.27-1.85-0.09%0
Hong KongHang Seng13565.69-55.96-0.41%155.72m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp934.272.010.22%0

Main SFE Futures Contracts

CodeInstrumentClose+/-%Volume
SP1SPI200 Index SFE4054-18-0.44%15217
IR190-day Bank Bills SFE94.6-0.04-0.04%17942
YT13-yr Bond SFE94.84-0.06-0.06%45231
XT110-yr Bond SFE94.68-0.05-0.05%14602