Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

OzRant: Saved by a Double Bottom...

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Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 9.80 points (-0.24%), finishing at 4055.70 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4069.60 and its low was 4043. The Index that runs (and is run by) the SFE's Share Price index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 9.40 points (-0.23%), finishing at 4052.60 points.

In its usual fashion, the market opened with a spurt, inspired by the overnight goosing of the US markets. Also in keeping with its usual fashion, the rest of the day a low hiss could be heard - the sound of the cash belonging to the Opening Hopefuls, heading on its way to Money Heaven. As I mentioned in this week's Sentiment newsletter, this sort of behaviour (open strong, but not holding the strength) was to be expected with all markets now clearly in the terminal phase of the advance off last August's lows. Today was a text-book example, as was yesterday. Check out today's intraday chart -

Intraday 15 minute chart

That little double bottom at 4039 on the chart above, saved the index from further embarrassment - yet again, futures-led selling evaporated and some mystery support arrived like the cavalry rescuing greenhorn settlers in Injun Country.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 2.80 points (-0.13%), finishing at 2142.10 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were resource-focused, whih ties in with the sectoral leadership provided by Materials today. The leaders were -

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.77 (1.87%) to $41.92 on volume of 3.69m shares;
  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.10 (1.63%) to $6.24 on volume of 3.64m shares;
  • AMP (AMP), +$0.12 (1.58%) to $7.72 on volume of 10.08m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.13 (0.83%) to $15.81 on volume of 11.96m shares; and
  • ANZ Bank (ANZ), +$0.04 (0.2%) to $20.29 on volume of 3.8m shares;

Stocks with strong ties to consumption spending dominated the rearguard:

  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.26 (1.77%) to $14.40 on volume of 2.3m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.10 (1.35%) to $7.31 on volume of 2.54m shares;
  • Fosters (FGL), -$0.07 (1.3%) to $5.30 on volume of 7.54m shares;
  • News Corpse B (NWS), -$0.22 (0.95%) to $22.92 on volume of 5.47m shares; and
  • Westfield (WDC), -$0.15 (0.88%) to $16.98 on volume of 7.02m shares;

The smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale - the ASX Small Ordinaries - fell by 6.70 points (-0.29%), finishing at 2343.50 points. Theupside leaders in the small caps were -

  • Virotec (VTI), +$0.05 (9.09%) to $0.54 on volume of 441,000 shares;
  • Petsec (PSA), +$0.05 (4.63%) to $1.13 on volume of 160,000 shares;
  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.23 (4.36%) to $5.50 on volume of 746,000 shares;
  • Jubilee (JBM), +$0.17 (3.74%) to $4.72 on volume of 711,000 shares; and
  • Mincor (MCR), +$0.02 (3.39%) to $0.61 on volume of 4.42m shares.

The biggests duds in the small-caps included:

  • Emperor Mining (EMP), -$0.03 (4.62%) to $0.62 on volume of 16,000 shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.00 (3.23%) to $0.03 on volume of 6.04m shares;
  • Just Group (JST), -$0.09 (3.11%) to $2.80 on volume of 1.85m shares;
  • Amalgated Holdings (AHD), -$0.14 (3.11%) to $4.36 on volume of 21,000 shares; and
  • Citect (CTL), -$0.03 (3.09%) to $0.94 on volume of 64,000 shares.
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4055.7-9.8-0.24%0
XTLS&P/ASX 202142.1-2.8-0.13%0
XFLS&P/ASX 503969.4-6.8-0.17%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003292.2-7.5-0.23%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004052.6-9.4-0.23%0
XKOS&P/ASX 3004059.8-9.4-0.23%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504084.5-22.4-0.55%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2343.5-6.7-0.29%0

All Ordinaries Market Internals

XAOXSO
Advances14256
Declines21992
Advancing Volume182.18m55.92m
Declining Volume331.81m51.44m

Broad Market Internals

IndicatorLevel+/-%
Advances385-11-2.78
Declines491132.72
Unchanged314-27-7.92
Total Traded Value2917-167-5.42
New 52 Week Highs54-11-16.92
New 52 Week Lows18880
Equity Call Option Volume40290-1480-3.54
Equity Put Option Volume392989712.53

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Materials which gained 0.55% to 6809.90 points. The sector was helped by

  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.23 (4.36%) to $5.50 on volume of 746,000 shares;
  • Jubilee (JBM), +$0.17 (3.74%) to $4.72 on volume of 711,000 shares;
  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), +$0.14 (3.08%) to $4.69 on volume of 1.28m shares;
  • Iluka Resources (ILU), +$0.13 (2.06%) to $6.43 on volume of 1.7m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.77 (1.87%) to $41.92 on volume of 3.69m shares;

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Healthcare which gained 0.06% to 4711.30 points. The sector leaders were -

  • CSL (CSL), +$0.56 (1.77%) to $32.15 on volume of 1.17m shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.05 (1.27%) to $3.98 on volume of 830,000 shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.01 (0.58%) to $1.74 on volume of 254,000 shares;
  • Mayne Group (MAY), +$0.01 (0.23%) to $4.41 on volume of 1.34m shares; and
  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.02 (0.22%) to $9.20 on volume of 1.8m shares;

No bronze again today - the third placed sector (Energy) lost -0.04% to 7203.80 points, dragged lower by

  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.05 (2.89%) to $1.68 on volume of 759,000 shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.04 (2.37%) to $1.65 on volume of 1.73m shares;
  • Worley (WOR), -$0.07 (1.21%) to $5.71 on volume of 333,000 shares;
  • Aust World Energy(AWE), -$0.02 (1.06%) to $1.86 on volume of 1.04m shares; and
  • Santos (STO), -$0.07 (0.8%) to $8.68 on volume of 1.3m shares;

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 0.95% to 394.50 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Infomedia (IFM), -$0.02 (2.67%) to $0.73 on volume of 907,000 shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.03 (2.4%) to $1.22 on volume of 1.23m shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.07 (1.17%) to $5.93 on volume of 753,000 shares; and
  • Baycorp (BCA), -$0.03 (0.98%) to $3.03 on volume of 403,000 shares.

Just in front of the last place on the sector table was Consumer Staples which lost 0.86% to 5415.80 points. The sector was pulled down by brewers and the two grocery majors -

  • Lion Nathan (LNN), -$0.16 (1.9%) to $8.28 on volume of 763,000 shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.26 (1.77%) to $14.40 on volume of 2.3m shares;
  • Fosters (FGL), -$0.07 (1.3%) to $5.30 on volume of 7.54m shares;
  • Burns Philp (BPC), -$0.01 (1.14%) to $0.87 on volume of 1.53m shares; and
  • Coles Myer (CML), -$0.06 (0.64%) to $9.30 on volume of 2.6m shares.
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XMJMaterials6809.937.40.55%81.33m
XHJHealthcare4711.32.60.06%9.56m
XEJEnergy7203.8-2.6-0.04%14.39m
XXJASX200 ex Property Trusts4832.5-8.1-0.17%62.41m
XUJUtilities4558.9-9.9-0.22%5.1m
XFJFinancials4834.6-14.4-0.3%185.87m
XTJTelecommunications1735.4-7-0.4%19.26m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2353.3-15.3-0.65%36.46m
XNJIndustrials4906.1-34.5-0.7%61.17m
XPJProperty Trusts1844.2-13.7-0.74%130.49m
XSJConsumer Staples5415.8-46.9-0.86%32.37m
XIJInformation Technology394.5-3.8-0.95%5.35m

All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

Virgin Blue and Patrick were both hammered by VBA's revised (downwardly, and hard) profit forecast; it seems to have taken the ticket-clipping community by surprise - after all, Merrill Lynch clients were heavy buyers of VBA last week at prices above $1.90. They're probably still playing the "Patrick takeover" angle, but since I don't think ML is the underwriter I would be surprised if there's any "inside scoop" to be read into this.

Code Name Close +/- % Volume
VBA Virgin Blue 1.74 -0.25 -12.56% 45.99m
CRT Consolidated Rutile 0.55 0.07 13.4% 18.96m
PDN Paladin 0.87 0.14 19.18% 17.7m
TLS Telstra Corporatiion 4.84 -0.02 -0.41% 17.66m
DRT DB Rreef 1.28 0 0% 15.18m

All Ordinaries Top Gainers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
BOCBougainville0.680.1323.64%248532
CRT Consolidated Rutile 0.550.0713.4%18.96m
VTI Virotec 0.540.059.09%440753
ALKAlkane0.230.027.14%810050
BGF Ballarat Goldfields 0.160.016.67%1.62m

All Ordinaries Top Losers

CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
VBAVirgin Blue1.74-0.25-12.56%45.99m
HLDHomeleisure0.3-0.04-10.45%1.1m
GDMGoldstream0.37-0.03-6.41%106656
EMPEmperor Mines0.62-0.03-4.62%15554
PRKPatrick Corp6.22-0.29-4.45%12.75m

Elsewhere in the Region...

The Kiwi Market declined marginally, losing 2.93 points (-0.09%). The weakest stocks in the market were -

  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.10 (2.94%) to $3.30 on volume of 65,000 shares;
  • Skellmax Industries (SKX), -$0.03 (2.44%) to $1.20 on volume of 78,000 shares;
  • Fisher & Paykel (FPA), -$0.07 (1.65%) to $4.18 on volume of 840,000 shares;
  • Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), -$0.14 (1.51%) to $9.16 on volume of 4,000 shares; and
  • Cavalier Corporation (CAV), -$0.06 (1.38%) to $4.30 on volume of 74,000 shares;

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 26.09 points (0.19%). Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • China Unicom Ltd (0762), +$0.15 (2.61%) to $5.90 on volume of 17.99m shares;
  • China Merchants (0144), +$0.25 (1.74%) to $14.65 on volume of 2.95m shares;
  • Cosco Pacific Limited (1199), +$0.20 (1.29%) to $15.65 on volume of 3.05m shares;
  • Denway Motor Limited (0203), +$0.03 (0.98%) to $2.58 on volume of 6.6m shares;
  • Henderson Land (0012), +$0.30 (0.83%) to $36.60 on volume of 3.05m shares; and
  • Hutchison Whampoa (0013), +$0.50 (0.7%) to $71.50 on volume of 14.77m shares;
CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
New ZealandNZSE503078.637-2.93-0.09%17.26m
JapanNikkei 22511405.34-17.92-0.16%89570
KoreaKOSPI916.27-4.3-0.47%415606
SingaporeStraits Times2094.6610.470.5%0
Hong KongHang Seng13630.3126.090.19%180.42m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp937.25-0.31-0.03%0

Main SFE Futures Contracts

CodeInstrumentClose+/-%Volume
SP1SPI200 Index SFE4046-6-0.15%16421
IR190-day Bank Bills SFE94.600%15650
YT13-yr Bond SFE94.8-0.05-0.05%71511
XT110-yr Bond SFE94.64-0.04-0.04%17743