Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, January 06, 2005

OzRant: Soft and Squishy

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Major Market Indices

The All Ordinaries led itself a merry dance today. It opened with a pop downwards for the first ten minutes, led by the futures market after a weak overnight performance in the US. After forming a little "double bottom" right at 4025 on the physical, the market ground higher for the next three and a half hours, but it was like pulling teeth. Once the futures got to 4049x4050 (4049 traded but 4050 never did) and set a little intraday double top, it was time for hedgies to take it down a notch. Arb-related selling then pulled the market down to close within spitting distance of its session lows (set early in the session),

 

XJO Intraday 5 minute chart

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 6.40 points (-0.30%), finishing at 2139.50 points. The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Coles Myer (CML), +$0.14 (1.46%) to $9.70 on volume of 2.49m shares;
  • Westfield (WDC), +$0.22 (1.32%) to $16.87 on volume of 7.76m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.04 (0.27%) to $15.03 on volume of 9.46m shares;
  • St.George Bank(SGB), +$0.04 (0.16%) to $25.20 on volume of 616,000 shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA), +$0.03 (0.09%) to $32.24 on volume of 1.87m shares.

The rearguard in the top 20 was led by the following stocks -

  • QBE Insurance (QBE), -$0.35 (2.31%) to $14.80 on volume of 2.53m shares;
  • News Corpse A (NWSLV), -$0.41 (1.71%) to $23.53 on volume of 2.42m shares;
  • News Corpse B (NWS), -$0.34 (1.38%) to $24.22 on volume of 3.24m shares;
  • AMP (AMP), -$0.07 (0.98%) to $7.05 on volume of 3.57m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.14 (0.94%) to $14.76 on volume of 952,000 shares.

The smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale - the ASX Small Ordinaries - bucked the big-gun's weakness, adding 5.40 points (0.24%) to 2297.10 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.41 (27.52%) to $1.90 on volume of 9.15m shares;
  • Gene Tech (GTG), +$0.05 (9.89%) to $0.50 on volume of 858,000 shares;
  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), +$0.02 (7.14%) to $0.23 on volume of 2.04m shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.10 (6.41%) to $1.66 on volume of 1.03m shares; and
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.18 (6.36%) to $3.01 on volume of 2.69m shares.

In the "be thankful for small mercies" department, Metabolic was nowhere to be seen in the top decliners... that (dis)honour was left to -

  • ERG (ERG), -$0.01 (3.23%) to $0.30 on volume of 498,000 shares;
  • Capral (CAA), -$0.07 (3.11%) to $2.18 on volume of 162,000 shares;
  • Resolute (RSG), -$0.04 (2.94%) to $1.32 on volume of 244,000 shares; and
  • Circadian (CIR), -$0.06 (2.91%) to $2.00 on volume of 27,000 shares.
  •  

    Code Name Close +/- %
    XAO All Ordinaries 4033.3 -10.1 -0.25%
    XTL S&P/ASX 20 2139.5 -6.4 -0.3%
    XFL S&P/ASX 50 3951.9 -10.9 -0.28%
    XTO S&P/ASX 100 3277.2 -8.9 -0.27%
    XJO S&P/ASX 200 4029.9 -9.5 -0.24%
    XKO S&P/ASX 300 4035.8 -9 -0.22%
    XMD S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 4062.5 -9.6 -0.24%
    XSO S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries 2297.1 5.4 0.24%

    All Ordinaries Market Internals

    It was a very balanced effort in the All Ords, with decliners just shading advancers. Internals for the small-cap index were relatively positive compared to the larger-cap end of the market, both in absolute numbers (a plurality of stocks rose in the small caps) and volume terms.

    I hesitate to read anything into a single session's worth of data - this does not look like a broadening of "traction" to enable further general market momentum. Rather, it looks like someone middle-sized decided to make a portfolio adjustment towards small caps.

    XAOXSO
    Advances173 75
    Declines177 67
    Advancing Volume128.5m 57.6m
    Declining Volume191.12m 30.1m

    Broad Market Internals

    Overall, the breadth of market and sentiment stats are looking increasingly vulnerable; leadership is narrowing, and with a market as obviously over-stretched as ours has been recently, there is no way that narrow leadership can provide any strength before the headwinds start to bite.

    Oscillators are beginning to roll over, and if the US market cannot get some upward traction our market is going to experience a much sharper retracement than it has had in '05 thus far.

    IndicatorLevel+/-%
    Advances360-41-10.22
    Declines4727518.89
    Unchanged303-5-1.62
    Total Traded Value218390771.08
    New 52 Week Highs40-27-40.3
    New 52 Week Lows5-7-58.33
    Equity Call Option Volume26148-12553-32.44
    Equity Put Option Volume27227-3538-11.5

    S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

    The top sector for the day was Information Technology which gained 2.09% to 400.60 points. This is the sector that money mis-managers will resort to when they are scare of missing the boat (which usually means they have missed the boat anyhow). The sector was led by

    • Computershare (CPU), +$0.19 (3.24%) to $6.05 on volume of 1.76m shares - seems that somebody listened to some absolute garbage a brokerage call today which claimed that rising interest rates and greater M&A activity would help CPU's US bond and registry operations, respectively... sure - but what happens when those earnings get re-priced from a lower USD base? Idiot...;
    • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.03 (2.34%) to $1.31 on volume of 1.45m shares;
    • Baycorp (BCA), +$0.01 (0.32%) to $3.13 on volume of 3.88m shares;
    • Infomedia (IFM), -$0.00 (0%) to $0.77 on volume of 550,000 shares; and
    • IRESS (IRE), -$0.01 (0.26%) to $3.85 on volume of 43,000 shares.

    Second in the sector leadership stakes was Healthcare which gained 0.94% to 4633.60 points. The sector leaders were -

    • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.41 (27.52%) to $1.90 on volume of 9.15m shares... it didn't quite do a Metabolic after its announcement of a $60m injection from Mizuho International (JP:8411), but it did set its session high 5 minutes and 30 seconds after it opened... and never traded above that price for the rest of the day... look out below.;
    • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.14 (3.87%) to $3.76 on volume of 559,000 shares;
    • CSL (CSL), +$0.90 (3.05%) to $30.40 on volume of 501,000 shares;
    • Resmed (RMD), +$0.07 (1.06%) to $6.70 on volume of 337,000 shares; and
    • Mayne Group (MAY), +$0.04 (0.94%) to $4.30 on volume of 1.01m shares.

    The bronze today went to Utilities which gained 0.59% to 4603.20 points. The sector was led by

    • Pacific Hydro (PHY), +$0.07 (1.71%) to $4.17 on volume of 368,000 shares;
    • Envestra (ENV), +$0.01 (0.92%) to $1.10 on volume of 333,000 shares;
    • AGL (AGL), +$0.11 (0.79%) to $14.06 on volume of 1.09m shares;
    • Energy Developments (ENE), +$0.02 (0.61%) to $3.31 on volume of 93,000 shares; and
    • Alinta (ALN), +$0.03 (0.35%) to $8.53 on volume of 406,000 shares.

    The worst-performed sector today was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.89% to 2410.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by

    • Village 'A' Prefs (VRLPA), -$0.05 (2.78%) to $1.75 on volume of 25,000 shares;
    • Aristocrat (ALL), -$0.26 (2.67%) to $9.47 on volume of 5.06m shares;
    • Pacbrands (PBG), -$0.08 (2.54%) to $3.07 on volume of 625,000 shares;
    • Austereo (AEO), -$0.03 (1.73%) to $1.70 on volume of 77,000 shares; and
    • News Corpse A (NWSLV), -$0.41 (1.71%) to $23.53 on volume of 2.42m shares.

    On a capitalisation-weighted basis, the major damage to the sector was actually done by News Corpse. Quelle Surprise.

    Just in front of the last place on the sector table was ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which lost 0.50% to 4799.20 points. The sector was pulled down by

    • Promina (PMN), -$0.17 (3.11%) to $5.30 on volume of 1.76 million shares;
    • Insurance Australia Group(IAG), -$0.17 (2.62%) to $6.31 on volume of 1.69 million shares;
    • QBE Insurance (QBE), -$0.35 (2.31%) to $14.80 on volume of 2.53 million shares;
    • Lend Lease (LLC), -$0.19 (1.45%) to $12.91 on volume of 2.03 million shares; and
    • HHG Plc (HHG), -$0.02 (1.41%) to $1.40 on volume of 4.43 million shares.
    Code GICS Sector Close +/- %
    XIJ Information Technology 400.6 8.2 2.09%
    XHJ Healthcare 4633.6 43 0.94%
    XUJ Utilities 4603.2 26.8 0.59%
    XNJ Industrials 4897.9 9.8 0.2%
    XPJ Property Trusts 1856.9 1.5 0.08%
    XSJ Consumer Staples 5586.6 3.4 0.06%
    XMJ Materials 6535 -7.4 -0.11%
    XFJ Financials 4816.4 -17.7 -0.37%
    XTJ Telecommunications 1760 -6.5 -0.37%
    XEJ Energy 6958.1 -26.8 -0.38%
    XXJ ASX200 ex Property Trusts 4799.2 -24 -0.5%
    XDJ Consumer Discretionary 2410.6 -21.7 -0.89%

    All Ordinaries Volume Leaders

    CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
    JRVJervois 0.03300%202.96m
    ZYLZylotech 0.007 -0.001 -12.5%79.92m
    AFTAft Corp 0.024 -0.003 -11.11%68.74m
    IMPImperial 0.007 0.001 16.67%56.17m
    RRSRange Res 0.058 0.007 13.73%45.44m

    All Ordinaries Top Gainers

    CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
    CMQChemeq 1.90 0.4127.52%9.15m
    UNWUnwired Group0.640.0916.36%1.28m
    GTGGenetic Tech 0.50 0.059.89%858058
    SMC Strategic Minerals 0.120.019.09%32570
    ASLAusdrill0.550.047.84%581589

    All Ordinaries Top Losers

    CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
    TIR Titan Resources 0.12-0.03-17.24%7.75m
    IHG Intellect Holdings 0.03 -0.003 -8.57%278000
    MSTMetal Storm0.24-0.02-5.88%2.8m
    HMEHome Building 6.60 -0.30 -4.35%625
    SSSSam's Seafood1.39-0.06-4.14%2500

     

    Elsewhere in the Region...

    The Kiwi Market advanced 6.37 points (0.21%), setting another all-time high.

    Individual stocks that dud well didn't include anyone that makes fush & chups (what a dreary joke-attempt...I will quit while I'm behind)

    • Infratil Limited (IFT), +$0.09 (2.68%) to $3.45 on volume of 39,000 shares;
    • Contact Energy (CEN), +$0.16 (2.51%) to $6.53 on volume of 129,000 shares;
    • Mainfreight Limited (MFT), +$0.05 (2.17%) to $2.35 on volume of 46,000 shares;
    • Auckland International (AIA), +$0.15 (1.86%) to $8.20 on volume of 44,000 shares;
    • Capital Properties (CNZ), +$0.02 (1.69%) to $1.20 on volume of 520,000 shares; and
    • Lion Nathan Limited (LNN), +$0.15 (1.62%) to $9.42 on volume of 2,000 shares.

    Japan had a modest gain of just under half a percent. The Nikkei burst out of the blocks with some vigour despite a weak US market, but after the first 40 minutes it settled into a holding pattern, hardly moving until a spike at the end of the day which took it to its high for the session.

    Hong Kong was soft, but far less so that previous sessions - at least some of the Hang Seng actually managed a gain for the session (for the first time in three sessions). Note that the prices displayed below will change after this goes to press, as Honkers is still open....

    • PCCW (0008), +$0.05 (1.03%) to HK$4.93 on volume of 30.45m shares;
    • HK& China Gas (0003), +$0.15 (0.97%) to HK$15.55 on volume of 4.41m shares;
    • Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (1038), +$0.15 (0.73%) to $20.80 on volume of 2.81m shares;
    • Cathay Pacific Airways (0293), +$0.10 (0.71%) to $14.25 on volume of 3.69m shares;
    • Bank Of East Asia (0023), +$0.10 (0.42%) to $23.80 on volume of 1.16m shares; and
    • Yue Yuen Industries (0551), +$0.05 (0.24%) to $20.80 on volume of 1.1m shares.
    CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
    New ZealandNZSE503093.7576.370.21%0
    JapanNikkei 22511492.2654.740.48%87083
    KoreaKOSPI871.28-13.91-1.57%389492
    SingaporeStraits Times2078.327.280.35%65.81m
    Hong KongHang Seng13735.25-29.11-0.21%235.03m
    MalaysiaKLSE Comp908.991.030.11%34.73m