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After the Bell...
Dell posted profits that beat the street by a penny (isn't that always the case??), but revenue was light - but only $80 mill less than the consensus estimate of $13.55 billion.
Reminds me a lot of CSCO's result... loads of channel stuffing, no doubt, and you can bet that the numbers aren't what they're cracked up to be.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations last night:
- a $8.25billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral; and
- a $12billion, 14-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.
Plenty money... Plenty. What that shows, is how often the Fed will pump money into the market just as bad data is about to be released.
That said, the 14-day basically just replaces expiring repurchases (but also adds - in net terms - to the previous 14-day, if memory serves). But that's not the point - repo money serves a function in the middle part of the session (from 10 a.m. NY time onwards).
Major US Indices
Today was a tale of two different tickertapes - one for the Dow, which looked fantastic, the other for other market segments, which looked lacklustre at best. Just like yesterday's Oz market behaviour, which was "Banks good, Rest Crap".
The dataflow was a bit surprising: awful numbers for the trade deficit (showing that the US fails the Robinson Metzeler Bickerdycke criterion), which made Greenspan's remarks last week yet another example of the bloke looking like a complete goose (OK - to give him some credit, the gap did narrow on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the raw numbers are woeful).
Meanwhile new jobless claims dropped to a 4 year low. I don't believe US jobless claim data anyhow, but it's worth noting, because it blindsided everybody.
The DJIA added 85.5 points (0.8%), closing out the day at 10749.61 points; the broader S&P500 gained 5.02 points (0.42%), ending the day at 1197.01. 17 Dow stocks rose, while 11 fell (Pfizer and Disney were unchanged). Volume in advancing Dow stocks was nearly matched by volume in decliners - 174.9million units in advancers compared with 172.3 million in losers.
The Dow was all aflutter over American International Group (AIG), which rose 4.7% for the session. Honeywell (HON +2.83%) and United Tech (UTX, +2.15%) were the other main winners. At the back end of the index was SBC Communications (SBC, -1.15%), while Coca Cola (KO -0.6%) was second-worst in percentage terms.
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.55 points (0.03%), to close at 2053.1, while larger-cap technology issues were almost unchanged, with the Nasdaq100 adding just 0.02 points (as near to 0% as makes no odds), to end at 1506.83 points.
Notice something? Only the Dow is moving. Over the last month, the S&P has risen, sure... but it's net move puts it back into a zone of uncertainty and still 25 points from last year's swing high. Meanwhile the Dow looks invulnerable, and is within spitting distance of last year's swing high. It is the only index that's even close. In other words, it's "circle the waggons" time.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.51 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was super-chunky (over 2 bill), with 2.08 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| DJIA | 10749.61 | 85.5 | 0.8% |
| S&P500 | 1197.01 | 5.02 | 0.42% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2053.1 | 0.55 | 0.03% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1506.83 | 0.02 | 0% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.51bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 2.08bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.57%
- General Electric (GE) -$0.04 (0.11%) to $36.05;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.20 (0.41%) to $48.98;
- Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.26 (0.5%) to $52.26;
- I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.06 (0.06%) to $92.76;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.20 (0.86%) to $23.50;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.05 (0.28%) to $17.58;
- eBay (EBAY) +$2.23 (2.82%) to $81.22;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -$1.65 (2.63%) to $61.19; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) -$3.32 (4.98%) to $63.39.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 1835 to 1492 for a single-day A/D reading of 343; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1647 to 1439
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 837.1 to 609.4 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1168.9 to 863.3 million shares.
207 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 19 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 80 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 60 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1835 | 1439 |
| Decliners | 1492 | 1647 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 837.07 | 863.34 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 609.44 | 1168.87 |
| New Highs | 207 | 80 |
| New Lows | 19 | 60 |
Market Sentiment
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 11.44 | -0.54 | -4.51% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 17.86 | -0.38 | -2.08% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.83 | 0 | 0% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.7 | 0.03 | 4.24% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 104.63 | 4.7164 | 4.72% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell hard along the curve, as Greenspan's mindless babblings proved to be just another 20 million cubic feet of hot air and horse-apples, combined. He apparently said last week (I didn't even bother reporting it) something about the trade deficit. It went something like "The trade deficit could narrow..." followed by half an hour of crap. Well, the trade deficit didn't narrow, you doddery old moron - except in the Orwellian world of seasonal adjustment. Countries don't accumulate "seasonally adjusted" debt; they accumulate dollars worth of debt. In unadjusted dollars, the external deficit hit a new record.
The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond spiked a whopping 10 basis points to 4.465%; the 30-year bond dropped like a bloody rock - the shorting level of 117 or above (mentioned on Monday, if memory serves) has thus far resulted in 3 trades; the first two showed gains of $500 per $2k margin before giving it all back... but the third time's a charm. After posting an intrasession high of 117 & 4/32, the bond dropped hard to close at 115 & 29/32 - for a gain of $1100 per contract traded.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.467 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.26 | 0.05 | 1.56% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 3.646 | 0.09 | 2.42% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.073 | 0.103 | 2.59% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.465 | 0.105 | 2.41% |
The Banks Index slid a scant 0.03 points (0.03%), to 101.52; within the index,
- MBNA Corp (KRB) -$0.25 (0.94%) to $26.28;
- Golden West Financial (GDW) -$0.54 (0.83%) to $64.41;
- Wells Fargo (WFC) -$0.48 (0.79%) to $60.43;
- National City Corp (NCC) -$0.26 (0.73%) to $35.47; and
- Washington Mutual (WM) -$0.22 (0.54%) to $40.32.
The Broker-dealer Index rose 0.34 points (0.23%), to end the session at 149.72; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.73 (1.9%) to $39.22;
- Morgan Stanley (MWD) +$0.70 (1.2%) to $58.87;
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.32 (1.18%) to $112.77;
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$0.98 (1.05%) to $94.38; and
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$0.84 (0.82%) to $103.59.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index gained 2.54 points (0.61%), to 420.46
- Altera (ALTR) +$0.35 (1.79%) to $19.87;
- National Semiconductors (NSM) +$0.32 (1.75%) to $18.65;
- Teradyne (TER) +$0.19 (1.3%) to $14.84;
- Maxim Integrated (MXIM) +$0.46 (1.15%) to $40.47; and
- Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.28 (1.14%) to $24.91.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold rose a hefty $4.20 (1.01%) to close at $419.10 per ounce. Mostly on the US Trade gap numbers, but it was also likely to bounce from close to $410 anyhow (and recall last night it got down to $411.50) - seldom will a commodity break a support level at its first shot.
The Gold Bugs Index gained 8.45 points (4.32%), to 204
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) +$0.35 (10.03%) to $3.84;
- Golden Star (GSS) +$0.21 (7.05%) to $3.19;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) +$1.06 (5.8%) to $19.33;
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.69 (5.75%) to $12.69; and
- Kinross Gold (KGC) +$0.35 (5.55%) to $6.66.
Silver rose $0.37 (5.6%) to close at $6.98 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) gained 3.5 points (3.9%), to end the session at 93.15 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) +$0.17 (13.08%) to $1.47;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) +$1.06 (5.8%) to $19.33;
- Anglogold Ashanti (AU) +$1.88 (5.77%) to $34.49; and
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) +$0.69 (5.75%) to $12.69.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 419.1 | 4.2 | 1.01% |
| Silver | 6.98 | 0.37 | 5.6% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 93.15 | 0.28 | 0.3% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 204 | 0.66 | 0.32% |
Oil Market
Oil was firmer, rising by $1.41 per barrel, closing at $46.96 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) advanced 16.67 points (2.16%), closing at 789.92
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) +$2.08 (3.39%) to $63.37;
- Amerada Hess (AHC) +$2.88 (3.13%) to $94.88; and
- Sunoco (SUN) +$2.76 (3%) to $94.64.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index gained 4 points (3.05%), ending the day at 135.19
- Varco International (VRC) +$1.29 (4.08%) to $32.94;
- Nabors Industries (NBR) +$2.02 (3.92%) to $53.55; and
- Schlumberger (SLB) +$2.69 (3.82%) to $73.02.
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 285.27 | 4.27 | 1.52% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 46.96 | 1.41 | 3.1% |
| Heating Oil | 1.315 | 0.0478 | 3.77% |
| Natural Gas | 3.18 | -2.995 | -48.5% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.289 | 0.049 | 3.95% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 789.92 | 0.86 | 0.11% |
| Oil Service Index | 135.19 | -0.02 | -0.01% |
Currency Markets
The USDX just can not get a good run (upwards) going; every time it sticks its head above the parapet, a ruddy great rock lands on it. Notice how only the heavily-manipulated currencies (the Yen, mostly) have been saving the USDX from greater embarrassment...
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 84.55 | -0.55 | -0.65% |
| Euro | 1.2874 | 0.0069 | 0.54% |
| Yen | 105.84 | 0.18 | 0.17% |
| Sterling | 1.8684 | 0.0095 | 0.51% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.783 | 0.0125 | 1.62% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.208 | -0.0085 | -0.7% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8053 | 0.0052 | 0.65% |
Euro-Zone Indices
| Country | Index | Last | % | % |
| France | CAC 40 | 3970.37 | 0.75 | 0.02% |
| Germany | DAX-30 | 4342.01 | -11.14 | -0.26% |
| UK | FTSE 100 | 4999.5 | 9.1 | 0.18% |
| Italy | MIBTel | 24711 | 17 | 0.07% |
European Index Internals
| CAC-40 | DAX-30 | FTSE-100 | |
| Advancers | 18 | 8 | 47 |
| Decliners | 20 | 22 | 50 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 117.1 | 19.5 | 686.4 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 39.2 | 80.8 | 818.8 |
Euro STOXX-50 Largest Volume
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Banco Santander Central Hispano | 9.46 | -0.05 | -0.53% | 55880176 |
| Deutsche Telekom | 16.36 | -0.14 | -0.85% | 25591232 |
| Telefonica | 14.23 | -0.03 | -0.21% | 23172598 |
| Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria | 13.25 | 0.11 | 0.84% | 17896900 |
| France Telecom | 24.25 | -0.56 | -2.26% | 16764675 |
CAC-40 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Societe Generale | 79.7 | 2.8 | 3.64% | 4886774 |
| Thales | 34.35 | 0.35 | 1.03% | 386378 |
| Essilor Internat | 54.9 | 0.5 | 0.92% | 155328 |
| Lagardere S.C.A. | 58.25 | 0.5 | 0.87% | 737749 |
| Accor | 34.66 | 0.28 | 0.81% | 724881 |
CAC-40 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| France Telecom | 24.25 | -0.6 | -2.41% | 16764675 |
| Casino Guichard | 62.9 | -1.15 | -1.8% | 280109 |
| Michelin | 52.15 | -0.8 | -1.51% | 920910 |
| Alcatel | 9.87 | -0.14 | -1.4% | 11002381 |
| L Oreal | 57.9 | -0.45 | -0.77% | 744283 |
FTSE Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| ICI | 2.75 | 0.29 | 11.79% | 61500076 |
| Hilton Group | 3.1825 | 0.1 | 3.33% | 20052354 |
| Corus Group | 0.575 | 0.02 | 2.68% | 43447268 |
| Rentokil Initial | 1.5925 | 0.04 | 2.41% | 7648947 |
| Royal Bank Scot | 17.97 | 0.4 | 2.28% | 21898396 |
FTSE Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (£) | Change | % | Volume |
| Shire Pharma | 5.775 | -0.65 | -10.05% | 59817384 |
| Rolls Royce | 2.645 | -0.07 | -2.58% | 49806036 |
| Exel | 8.355 | -0.15 | -1.76% | 2680778 |
| Carnival | 31.19 | -0.53 | -1.67% | 1501055 |
| Centrica | 2.39 | -0.04 | -1.44% | 22266360 |
DAX-30 Largest Gainers
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| Bayer | 26.05 | 0.44 | 1.72% | 6321893 |
| Bayerische MotorWerke | 33.22 | 0.24 | 0.73% | 2456908 |
| Schering | 53.55 | 0.37 | 0.7% | 781629 |
| Thyssen Krupp | 16.7 | 0.1 | 0.6% | 2614572 |
| E.On | 69.75 | 0.17 | 0.24% | 2780889 |
DAX-30 Largest Decliners
| Name | Close (€) | Change | % | Volume |
| MAN | 30.72 | -0.72 | -2.29% | 1698250 |
| Lufthansa | 10.83 | -0.23 | -2.08% | 4260393 |
| Adidas Salomon | 112.03 | -2.31 | -2.02% | 1003907 |
| Daimlerchrysler | 35.6 | -0.52 | -1.44% | 9702506 |
| Continental | 55.01 | -0.64 | -1.15% | 917220 |
