Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

USRant: Tame CPI? South Korea Helped USD (for about twenty seconds)...

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Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.

  • a $7.25billion, 2-day repurchase with $5.677billion in T-backed collateral .

Major US Indices

The DJIA rose 62.59 points (0.59%), closing out the day at 10673.79 points; within the blue-chip index, 20 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Procter & Gamble (PG +2.37% to $53.49) and Exxon Mobil (XOM +2.01% to $59.42). Losers in the Dow numbered 9 and were led by Intel (INTC -1.89% to $23.31) and Home Depot (HD -1.32% to $39.75); Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 272.5m shares to 135.4m. The tilt was due to massive volume in Intel and Microsoft, which both fell - volume in those two decliners totalled 170 million shares.

The broader S&P500 posted a rise of 6.58 points (0.56%), at 1190.8. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.93 points (0.05%), to close at 2031.25, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 3.02 points (0.2%), to end at 1497.09 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.5 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was lighter than recent sessions, with 1.88 billion shares traded.

IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
DJIA10673.7962.590.59%
S&P5001190.86.580.56%
Nasdaq Composite2031.250.930.05%
Nasdaq1001497.093.020.2%
NYSE Volume1.5bn--
Nasdaq Volume1.88bn--

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.24%

  • General Electric (GE) -$0.08 (0.23%) to $35.27;
  • Citigroup (C) +$0.43 (0.9%) to $48.38;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.40 (0.77%) to $51.60;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.22 (0.24%) to $92.10;
  • Intel (INTC) -$0.45 (1.89%) to $23.31;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.03 (0.17%) to $17.28;
  • eBay (EBAY) +$0.74 (1.8%) to $41.84;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.64 (1.11%) to $57.16; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -$0.26 (0.43%) to $60.11.

Market Breadth & Internals

NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2122 to 1216 for a single-day A/D reading of 906; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1569 to 1522. the 10-day averages rose to -223 (NYSE) and -405 (Nasdaq).

NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1028.2 to 441.5 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 932.6 to 903.1 million shares.

97 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 25 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 50 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 63 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

NYSENasdaq
Advancers21221569
Decliners12161522
Advancing Volume (m)1028.16903.14
Declining Volume (m)441.52932.6
New Highs9750
New Lows2563

Market Sentiment

IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
CBOE Volatility Index12.43-0.71-5.4%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index18.48-0.52-2.74%
Equity Put-Call Ratio0.750.0913.64%
10-day PCR0.690.011.88%
SPX-VIX Ratio95.85.68186.3%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose in the longer-maturity segment of the curve (from 5-years outward) - journalists had the "tame inflation data" to cling to, but he real reason was simply that the damn thing was so oversold. After all, the long bond market had dropped more than 3 full points in a matter of twelve sessions. The odd thing is, after the nuffie-spike that happened after the inflation data, the market dropped to test the previous session's low (at 113 & 16/32) before recovering to finish with a gain of just 8/32 for the session. If the inflation data had genuinely changed the outlook for the bond market, the reversal would have happened the other way (i.e., the nuffie spike would have been DOWN to wipe out nuffnuffs that were long). As it turned out, the short nuffies stops were "tickled", that's all.

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond dipped 2.3 basis points to 4.661%.

IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
UST 13wk (yld)2.62500%
UST 2Y (yld)3.430.020.59%
UST 5Y (yld)3.862-0.01-0.23%
UST 10Y (yld)4.268-0.017-0.4%
UST 30Y (yld)4.661-0.023-0.49%

The Banks Index rose 0.89 points (0.91%), to end the session at 98.91; within the index,

  • Wachovia (WB) +$1.29 (2.49%) to $53.16;
  • US Bancorp (USB) +$0.54 (1.85%) to $29.68;
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) +$0.55 (1.53%) to $36.48;
  • Suntrust Banks (STI) +$1.08 (1.52%) to $72.00; and
  • Bank Of America (BAC) +$0.53 (1.17%) to $45.73.

The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.31 points (0.21%), to 145.15; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.80 (2.04%) to $90.13;
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.25 (1.16%) to $109.11;
  • Bear Stearns (BSC) +$0.81 (0.84%) to $97.69;
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.42 (0.72%) to $58.38; and
  • Legg Mason (LM) +$0.38 (0.48%) to $78.96.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index lost 1.77 points (0.42%), to 424.02

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -$0.40 (2.35%) to $16.60;
  • Intel (INTC) -$0.45 (1.89%) to $23.31;
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) -$0.35 (1.22%) to $28.23;
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) -$0.21 (1.2%) to $17.25; and
  • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) -$0.49 (1.02%) to $47.69.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold dipped $1.30 (0.3%) to close at $436 per ounce. It's basically a hostage to USD moves at the moment, since it's got no impetus of its own.

The Gold Bugs Index slid 0.97 points (0.45%), at 216.77

  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.71 (3.36%) to $20.44;
  • Iamgold (IAG) -$0.20 (2.65%) to $7.36;
  • Golden Star (GSS) -$0.08 (2.57%) to $3.03;
  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.04 (1.27%) to $3.10; and
  • Glamis Gold (GLG) -$0.20 (1.11%) to $17.80.

Silver fell by $0.08 (1.02%) to close at $7.46 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.24 points (0.24%), closing at 99.69 points.

  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.71 (3.36%) to $20.44;
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.08 (0.93%) to $8.51;
  • Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.30 (0.81%) to $36.52; and
  • Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.01 (0.67%) to $1.49.
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Gold436-1.3-0.3%
Silver7.458-0.077-1.02%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index99.69-0.24-0.24%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index216.77-0.97-0.45%

Oil Market

Oil was slightly firmer, rising by $0.06 per barrel, closing at $51.21 per barrel. The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) rose 7.68 points (0.93%), to end the session at 834.89

  • Kerr Mcgee (KMG) +$1.64 (2.21%) to $75.84;
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) +$1.17 (2.01%) to $59.42; and
  • ChevronTexaco (CVX) +$0.82 (1.38%) to $60.16.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index posted a rise of 2.23 points (1.63%), at 139.3

  • Smith International (SII) +$1.60 (2.56%) to $64.08;
  • Baker Hughes (BHI) +$1.06 (2.3%) to $47.09; and
  • Halliburton (HAL) +$0.97 (2.3%) to $43.10.
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Reuters CRB299.161.50.5%
Crude Oil Light Sweet51.210.060.12%
Heating Oil1.48310.05163.6%
Natural Gas6.3050.2454.04%
Unleaded Gas1.31140.00340.26%
AMEX Oil Index834.897.680.93%
Oil Service Index139.32.231.63%

Currency Markets

South Korea - whose economy is basically in tatters thanks to manifetly irresponsible monetary, fiscal and credit policy - trotted themselves out last night to declare that they weren't moving away from USD-centric foreign exchange reserves.

And the ForEx market cared about this?

Japanese officials made similar noises. Since those clowns have sent hundreds of billions of dollars to Money Heaven in various attempts to prevent Yen appreciation, and since they have bucketloads of US Government bonds which are losing Yen-denominated value every time the dollar falls, their continued support for the USD should be taken as read.

I think it's interesting in the extreme that the Euro has re-ignited upward at precisely the same time as George W. Bush has been on a so-called "charm offensive" in Europe. The fact that journalists can call refer to a begging tour as an attempt to "charm", is in itself offensive. Europeans have long memories - there are family feuds in Europe that have lasted longer than the US has even been a proper country, so Bush should drop the "Iraq? Why, that's OLD news, pardner!" schtick and get back to his Bubble where only good news is piped in.

IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
US Dollar Index82.720.290.35%
Euro1.3213-0.004-0.3%
Yen104.820.770.74%
Sterling1.9087-0.0022-0.12%
Australian Dollar0.7863-0.0074-0.93%
Swiss Franc1.16320.00470.41%
Canadian Dollar0.8049-0.0114-1.4%