Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, March 10, 2005

USRant: Dow Looks Purdy, But Internals Look Bleh...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Federal Reserve Open Market Operations

The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 2 repurchase operations.

  • a $10billion, overnight repurchase with $9.034billion in T-backed collateral ; and
  • a $12billion, 14-day repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.

Major US Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 45.89 points (0.42%), closing out the day at 10851.51 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10875.52, set just before 2 p.m. NY time. Soft economic data (worse than expected payrolls and soft wholesale sales, in particular) provided the journalist's single-issue reason for a decline from the open which lasted until about 11 a.m. - during which time the Dow fell as low as 10780.35. Oddly, no journalist has yet satisfactorily explained why the market did not react at all to the woeful Treasury Budget numbers (a deficit of $113.9 billion compared with a consensus guess of a $97 billion deficit) No doubt you will remember Greenspan saying in 2001 how the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy whould be put in place, because otherwise projected surpluses could pose a problem for the bond market... he is the perfect contrarian indicator, because he is a brainless dickhead... (now he favours Social Security Privatisation because the deficit is bad!!).

Bear in mind also, that the deficit number above is for a single quarter, and does not include any of the costs associated with going abroad and killing foreigners' children (and contaminating their countries with about 500 tonnes of radioactuve dust from expended DU ammunition). That's all "pro forma" you see - because governments invented dodgy accounting.

Back to the Dow...

Within the blue-chip index, 23 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being General Motors (GM, +1.56% to $34.61) and Caterpillar (CAT, +1.50% to $98.26), which accounted for 15 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 7 and were led by Alcoa (AA, -1.42% to $30.48) and Du Pont (DD, -0.79% to $54.04), with these two stocks contributing -6 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 259.3m shares to 80m - a very different story to the market internals of the broader market.

The broader S&P500 posted a rise of 2.24 points (0.19%), to 1209.25. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.57 points (0.08%), to close at 2059.72, while larger-cap technology issues fared better with the Nasdaq100 adding 2.4 points (0.16%), to end at 1524.38 points.

NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.6 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was pretty good, with 1.81 billion shares traded for the session.


Major Market Statistics
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Dow Jones Industrial Average10851.5145.890.42%
S&P5001209.252.240.19%
Nasdaq Composite2059.72-1.57-0.08%
Nasdaq1001524.382.40.16%
NYSE Volume1.6bn--
Nasdaq Volume1.81bn--

Bellwethers

My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.16%

  • General Electric (GE) +$0.39 (1.09%) to $36.13;
  • Citigroup (C) +$0.27 (0.56%) to $48.15;
  • Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.30 (0.57%) to $52.15;
  • I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.06 (0.06%) to $92.41;
  • Intel (INTC) +$0.01 (0.04%) to $24.85;
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.18 (0.97%) to $18.71;
  • eBay (EBAY) -$1.04 (2.61%) to $38.86;
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.62 (1.09%) to $57.72; and
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.51 (0.78%) to $65.61.

Market Breadth & Internals

Despite the headline jump in the Dow, the market internals were not really that flash. NYSE declining issues beat out advancers by 1938 to 1383, for a single-day A/D reading of -555; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1821 to 1250. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to -98.8 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to -243.5.

On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 810.2 to 769.3 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 937.6 to 836.2 million shares.

61 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 27 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 44 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 70 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.

Market Breadth Statistics
NYSENasdaq
Advancers13831250
Decliners19381821
Advancing Volume (m)769.28836.21
Declining Volume (m)810.24937.61
New Highs6144
New Lows2770

Market Sentiment Statistics
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
CBOE Volatility Index12.49-0.21-1.65%
CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index17.930.130.73%
Equity Put-Call Ratio0.54-0.33-37.93%
10-day PCR0.65-0.04-5.43%
SPX-VIX Ratio96.81.781.87%

Bond Market Analysis

Bonds rose at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond shedding 6.4 basis points to 4.756%.

Treasury Yields
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
UST 13wk (yld)2.68700%
UST 2Y (yld)3.660.020.55%
UST 5Y (yld)4.126-0.015-0.36%
UST 10Y (yld)4.459-0.055-1.22%
UST 30Y (yld)4.756-0.064-1.33%

The Banks Index gained 0.41 points (0.41%), to 100.1; within the index,

  • Golden West Financial (GDW) +$0.71 (1.2%) to $60.12;
  • State Street (STT) +$0.50 (1.12%) to $45.00;
  • Bank Of NY (BK) +$0.26 (0.86%) to $30.65;
  • BB&T Corp (BBT) +$0.33 (0.83%) to $40.06; and
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +$0.36 (0.81%) to $45.05.

The Broker-dealer Index added 0.61 points (0.4%), to end the session at 151.48; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -

  • Raymond James (RJF) +$0.48 (1.53%) to $31.76;
  • Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.09 (1.19%) to $93.04;
  • Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.05 (1.02%) to $104.31;
  • A G Edwards (AGE) +$0.39 (0.87%) to $45.09; and
  • Merrill Lynch (MER) +$0.41 (0.68%) to $61.05.

The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index gained 6.13 points (1.41%), to end the session at 440.46

  • National Semiconductors (NSM) +$1.13 (5.65%) to $21.12;
  • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) +$0.94 (1.96%) to $48.96;
  • Novellus Systems (NVLS) +$0.54 (1.92%) to $28.64;
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) +$0.71 (1.79%) to $40.31; and
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) +$0.44 (1.65%) to $27.08.

Gold & Silver Markets

Gold rose $0.10 (0.02%) to close at $443 per ounce.

The Gold Bugs Index shed 2.06 points (0.92%), to 222.66

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$1.48 (3.49%) to $40.92;
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.38 (2.05%) to $18.15;
  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) -$0.06 (1.79%) to $3.29;
  • Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.09 (1.48%) to $5.99; and
  • Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.08 (1.11%) to $7.13.

Silver fell by $0.11 (1.47%) to close at $7.51 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 1.04 points (1.01%), at 101.79 points.

  • Freeport McMoran (FCX) -$1.48 (3.49%) to $40.92;
  • Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.38 (2.05%) to $18.15;
  • Barrick Gold (ABX) -$0.36 (1.39%) to $25.56; and
  • Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.08 (1.11%) to $7.13.
Precious Metals and Indices
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Gold443.000.100.02%
Silver7.51-0.11-1.47%
PHLX Gold and Silver Index101.79-1.04-1.01%
AMEX Gold BUGS Index222.66-2.06-0.92%

Oil Market

Oil gotstood on pretty hard in the second half of the session - which rhymed with yesterday. By the close, the front month was down $1.20 per barrel, closing at $53.57 per barrel.

The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) shed 9.98 points (1.16%), at 852.93

  • Marathon Oil (MRO) -$1.09 (2.33%) to $45.70;
  • Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$1.74 (2.18%) to $77.99; and
  • ChevronTexaco (CVX) -$1.27 (2.13%) to $58.49.

The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index lost 2.34 points (1.68%), to 136.75

  • Global Industries (GLBL) -$0.47 (5.11%) to $8.73;
  • Rowan Companies (RDC) -$0.91 (2.95%) to $29.90; and
  • Transocean (RIG) -$1.39 (2.84%) to $47.57.
Energy Complex
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
Reuters CRB315.151.310.42%
Crude Oil Light Sweet53.57-1.2-2.19%
Heating Oil1.5091-0.01-0.69%
Natural Gas6.767-0.07-1.07%
Unleaded Gas1.4866-0.03-2.04%
AMEX Oil Index852.93-9.98-1.16%
Oil Service Index136.75-2.34-1.68%

Currency Markets

Currency Prices
IndexCloseGain(Loss)%
US Dollar Index81.540.030.04%
Euro1.34260.00390.29%
Yen104.020.030.03%
Sterling1.9223-0.0017-0.09%
Australian Dollar0.7915-0.0006-0.08%
Swiss Franc1.1532-0.0054-0.47%
Canadian Dollar0.83040.00140.17%