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EBBERS GUILTY ON ALL COUNTS. WHY ISN'T KENNETH LAY EVEN IN COURT? ANSWER: HE'S A BIG DONOR TO BUSH CAMPAIGN, AND THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS UTTERLY CORRUPT.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.
- a $9.5billion, overnight repurchase entirely in T-backed collateral.
Gee, despite all that repo, there was nuthin' on the table for anyone who took a punt on a repo moonshot. Go figure. REtail sales were worse than consensus (actual 0.5%, consensus 0.6%... but excluding cars actual 0.4% when consensus was 0.7%). That was well before the open, though.
Major US Indices
A couple of important technical levels ("important" on a very short-term basis) broke last night. 10750 on the Dow, and 1200 on the S&P. Perhaps equally importantly, the Nasdaq100 didn't break 1500. Coupled with the excessively bearish single-day advance-decline numbers, there's a prospect for a bounce (especially since it's a quadruple witching week - the expiration of options, futures, futures options and single-stock futures... witching weeks are always good for some nuffie-spiking shenanigans).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 59.41 points (0.55%), closing out the day at 10745.1 points. The index hit an intraday high of 10838.65 twenty minutes after the open, but from there it was a relentless slide punctuated by pretty feeble intraday bounces. The index closed right at its low for the session.
Within the blue-chip index, 7 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being Walt Disney (DIS, +2.07% to $28.60) and Boeing (BA, +1.33% to $58.48), which accounted for 10 Dow points between them. I have no idea why anybody gives a tinker's cuss about who is in charge of Disney - all it means is a different bank account for the ludicrous amount of shareholders value that gets drained out by the professional parasite class.
Losers in the Dow numbered 23 and were led by American International Group (AIG, -3.02% to $61.92) and SBC Communications (SBC, -1.78% to $23.66), with these two stocks contributing -17 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the losers by 299.5m shares to 40.5m.
The broader S&P500 dipped 9.08 points (0.75%), to 1197.75. Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite dipped 16.06 points (0.78%), to close at 2034.98, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 13.03 points (0.86%), to end at 1502.06 points.
NYSE Volume was pretty good, with 1.51 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was slightly better, with 1.84 billion shares being bought (and sold... mostly sold).
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10745.1 | -59.41 | -0.55% |
| S&P500 | 1197.75 | -9.08 | -0.75% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2034.98 | -16.06 | -0.78% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1502.06 | -13.03 | -0.86% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.51bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.84bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group fell by an average of 0.43%
- General Electric (GE) -$0.22 (0.61%) to $36.00;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.42 (0.87%) to $47.80;
- Wal Mart (WMT) -$0.27 (0.53%) to $51.03;
- I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.52 (0.57%) to $91.38;
- Intel (INTC) -$0.39 (1.61%) to $23.88;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.29 (1.56%) to $18.25;
- eBay (EBAY) +$0.59 (1.62%) to $37.07;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) -$0.29 (0.5%) to $57.40; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.49 (0.74%) to $66.33.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 2213 to 1113, for a single-day A/D reading of -1100; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1954 to 1162. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line fell to -307.3 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D fell to -281.6.
On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 1099.1 to 403.6 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 1153.7 to 570.6 million shares.
111 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 32 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 77 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 73 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1113 | 1162 |
| Decliners | 2213 | 1954 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 403.62 | 570.63 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 1099.12 | 1153.65 |
| New Highs | 111 | 77 |
| New Lows | 32 | 73 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.15 | 0.73 | 5.88% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 18.68 | 0.36 | 1.97% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.68 | -0.16 | -19.05% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.71 | -0.01 | -1.15% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 91.1 | -6.08 | -6.26% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 3.3 basis points to 4.813%. My medium-term target for the long bond futures was under 110 by June (you will find that in the archives, but I will dig it out tomorrow); if it has another session like today it will have a 110 handle tomorrow (the 30-year future closed at 111&9/32), and then gravity will do the rest. That said, bonds are now oversold again... but oversold can easily become "more oversold". It would take some fairly horrific economic data to make bonds go up solidly from here.
The ten year bond yield is getting really comfortable above 4.5% now, and the 5-year has broken above 4% pretty decisively. 4.25% on 5-years is starting to look more and more likely, and there's a good chance that the 10-30 year yields will start hurting the housing market as they continue to put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.737 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.72 | 0.01 | 0.27% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.217 | 0.021 | 0.5% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.542 | 0.026 | 0.58% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.813 | 0.033 | 0.69% |
The Banks Index shed 0.86 points (0.86%), at 99.27; within the index,
- MBNA Corp (KRB) -$0.47 (1.83%) to $25.24;
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -$0.76 (1.73%) to $43.25;
- State Street (STT) -$0.77 (1.7%) to $44.60;
- Bank Of NY (BK) -$0.48 (1.56%) to $30.22; and
- North Fork Bancorp (NFB) -$0.45 (1.55%) to $28.64.
The Broker-dealer Index added 0.5 points (0.33%), ending the day at 151.07; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$2.87 (3.08%) to $96.19;
- Legg Mason (LM) +$2.36 (2.97%) to $81.85;
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.29 (1.23%) to $106.03;
- Raymond James (RJF) +$0.27 (0.85%) to $31.86; and
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +$0.54 (0.49%) to $110.54.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 9.13 points (2.12%), to 421.12
- Infineon Tech (IFX) -$0.32 (3.14%) to $9.88;
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) -$0.56 (3.09%) to $17.59;
- Broadcom (BRCM) -$0.86 (2.74%) to $30.51;
- Novellus Systems (NVLS) -$0.74 (2.68%) to $26.84; and
- Linear Technology (LLTC) -$0.99 (2.48%) to $38.90.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold fell by $0.2 (0.05%) to close at $441.4 per ounce; USD bounce-let = Gold decline-let. No brain surgery or rocket science.
The Gold Bugs Index slid 0.52 points (0.24%), closing at 218.7
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.13 (1.91%) to $6.69;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.13 (1.49%) to $8.57;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.19 (1.06%) to $17.79;
- Golden Star (GSS) -$0.03 (0.97%) to $3.07; and
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.12 (0.95%) to $12.53.
Silver bounced from yesterday's tennelling, rising $0.25 (3.55%) to close at $7.39 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.21 points (0.21%), ending the day at 100.62 points.
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.13 (1.91%) to $6.69;
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.13 (1.49%) to $8.57;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.19 (1.06%) to $17.79; and
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.12 (0.95%) to $12.53.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 441.40 | -0.20 | -0.05% |
| Silver | 7.39 | 0.25 | 3.55% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 100.62 | -0.21 | -0.21% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 218.7 | -0.52 | -0.24% |
Oil Market
Oil was firmer, rising by $0.10 per barrel, closing at $54.95 per barrel. The early wires were full of "quasi-news" about how OPEC would "probably" raise output by 500k barrels a day. That helped to get some nuffies to dive off a cliff, and dragged front-month crude down to the low $54s... only to see it rise over a dollar as news came that in all likelihood OPEC would do... nothing.
Guess what, America - you had better think really long and really hard about making stupid belligerent noises about Iran. I notice there's been a softening of the US line since the Iranians made it clear that continuing bellicosity would make the Iranians reconsider where they sent all their oil. That, plus Chavez' recent jokes about how he expects the US to claim that Venezuela has WMD (I would not be surprised by any lie that emanated from Condoleeza Rice's mouth), have reintroduced some "foreign-policy-idiocy" premium into the USD price of oil.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) slid 9.71 points (1.13%), ending the day at 852.15
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$1.72 (2.38%) to $70.68;
- Amerada Hess (AHC) -$1.81 (1.87%) to $94.89; and
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) -$0.93 (1.52%) to $60.35.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index slid 2.04 points (1.47%), to 136.92
- Global Industries (GLBL) -$0.25 (2.79%) to $8.71;
- Rowan Companies (RDC) -$0.82 (2.7%) to $29.58; and
- Tidewater (TDW) -$1.01 (2.54%) to $38.83.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 320.5 | 3.26 | 1.03% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 54.95 | 0.1 | 0.18% |
| Heating Oil | 1.5508 | 0.02 | 1.02% |
| Natural Gas | 7.167 | -706.33 | -99% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.5021 | -0.01 | -0.38% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 852.15 | -9.71 | -1.13% |
| Oil Service Index | 136.92 | -2.04 | -1.47% |
Currency Markets
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 82.14 | 0.19 | 0.23% |
| Euro | 1.3304 | -0.0063 | -0.47% |
| Yen | 104.57 | -0.31 | -0.3% |
| Sterling | 1.9115 | -0.002 | -0.1% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7902 | 0.0031 | 0.39% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.1655 | 0.0062 | 0.53% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8277 | -0.0001 | -0.01% |
