Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation.
- a $9billion, 8-day repurchase with just $2.741billion in T-backed collateral.
The overwhelming bulk of the repo was actually in Agency-backed collateral; in other words
Major US Indices
Well, it was Monday. Mondays always have a modest upward bias... because the entire United States spends each weekend immersed in propaganda telling everyone how affluent they are... little wonder they zombie-on-in on Mondays and buy stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 42.78 points (0.41%), closing out the day at 10485.65 points. The index opened at its session low (10439.99) and hit an intraday high of 10533.55 just before 3 p.m. before softening a reasonably eye-popping 50 points in the last hour.
Within the blue-chip index, 16 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being American International Group (AIG, +2.54% to $57.02) and Boeing (BA, +2.29% to $58.10), which accounted for 20 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 14 and were led by General Motors (GM, -3.17% to $28.37) and Alcoa (AA, -1.02% to $30.05), with these two stocks contributing -9 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 174.9m shares to 140.2m.
The broader S&P500 gained 2.86 points (0.24%), closing at 1174.28.
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite posted a rise of a measly 1.46 points (0.07%), to close at 1992.52, while larger-cap technology issues fared a little better with the Nasdaq100 adding 2.77 points (0.19%), to end at 1472.71 points. Interestingly, both Nasdaq indices set their intraday highs before 11 a.m.; that's an interesting divergence. Note also that the Nasdaq Comp - while trading above 2000 for a good chunk of the session, failed to close above that level.
NYSE Volume was chunky, with 1.75 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was about average, with 1.54 billion shares being shifted from one online brokerage account to another (and back again, in all likelihood).
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10485.65 | 42.78 | 0.41% |
| S&P500 | 1174.28 | 2.86 | 0.24% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1992.52 | 1.46 | 0.07% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1472.71 | 2.77 | 0.19% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.75bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.54bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.61%
- General Electric (GE) +$0.24 (0.67%) to $35.97;
- Citigroup (C) +$0.25 (0.56%) to $44.77;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$0.33 (0.65%) to $50.99;
- I.B.M. (IBM) +$0.34 (0.37%) to $91.04;
- Intel (INTC) +$0.12 (0.52%) to $23.30;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) +$0.01 (0.06%) to $17.89;
- eBay (EBAY) +$0.41 (1.15%) to $35.91;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.67 (1.24%) to $54.88; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.16 (0.25%) to $63.00.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE declining Issues beat out advancers by 1868 to 1436, for a single-day A/D reading of -432; and Nasdaq losers exceeded gainers by 1666 to 1412. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to -618.7 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to -365.5.
On the NYSE declining volume was greater than volume in advancing issues by 930.9 to 785.3 million shares; Nasdaq advancing volume was greater than volume in decliners by 767 to 713.4 million shares.
36 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 72 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 56 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 85 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 1436 | 1412 |
| Decliners | 1868 | 1666 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 785.26 | 766.96 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 930.85 | 713.44 |
| New Highs | 36 | 56 |
| New Lows | 72 | 85 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 13.75 | 0.3 | 2.23% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 17.74 | 0.59 | 3.44% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.56 | -0.06 | -9.68% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.72 | -0.04 | -5.15% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 85.4 | -1.69 | -1.94% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell at the long end, with the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond rising 3.4 basis points to 4.878%. The 5-year closed above a 4.3% yield, and is now close enough to 4.5% to make mortgage-holders nervous. I mentioned some time ago that it would soon be time to try and play the widening of credit spreads (i.e., that junk bond spreads were ludicrously low, and shorting junk was just a brilliant idea). More on that this week... it's almost time to load it up.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.772 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.86 | 0.02 | 0.52% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 4.323 | 0.034 | 0.79% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.624 | 0.033 | 0.72% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.878 | 0.034 | 0.7% |
The Banks Index advanced 0.41 points (0.43%), closing at 95.71; within the index,
- PNC Financial Services (PNC) +$0.76 (1.51%) to $51.16;
- Bank Of America (BAC) +$0.54 (1.23%) to $44.29;
- Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) +$0.46 (1.09%) to $42.51;
- Keycorp (KEY) +$0.26 (0.83%) to $31.75; and
- Wells Fargo (WFC) +$0.48 (0.82%) to $58.87.
The Broker-dealer Index advanced 0.44 points (0.3%), ending the day at 144.74; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Charles Schwab (SCH) +$0.22 (2.2%) to $10.23;
- E*Trade (ET) +$0.19 (1.59%) to $12.17;
- Ameritrade (AMTD) +$0.16 (1.57%) to $10.33;
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$1.24 (1.34%) to $94.02; and
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +$1.28 (1.18%) to $109.68.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index dipped 0.38 points (0.09%), to end the session at 415.5
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) -$0.65 (4.03%) to $15.47;
- Applied Materials (AMAT) -$0.18 (1.08%) to $16.45;
- Micron Technology (MU) -$0.06 (0.59%) to $10.17;
- Freescale Semiconductors (FSL-B) -$0.07 (0.4%) to $17.40; and
- ST Microelectronic (STM) -$0.06 (0.36%) to $16.74.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold rose $1.20 (0.28%) to close at $425.7 per ounce.
Gold Bugs Index dipped 1.95 points (0.98%), at 197.39
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.12 (3.37%) to $3.44;
- Golden Star (GSS) -$0.08 (3.01%) to $2.58;
- Randgold Resources (GOLD) -$0.27 (2.24%) to $11.76;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.11 (1.81%) to $5.96; and
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.19 (1.61%) to $11.61.
Silver fell by $0.02 (0.33%) to close at $6.91 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 0.38 points (0.41%), closing at 92.59 points.
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.11 (1.81%) to $5.96;
- Gold Fields (GFI) -$0.19 (1.61%) to $11.61;
- Meridian Gold (MDG) -$0.22 (1.35%) to $16.02; and
- Anglogold Ashanti (AU) -$0.22 (0.63%) to $34.71.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 425.70 | 1.20 | 0.28% |
| Silver | 6.91 | -0.02 | -0.33% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 92.59 | -0.38 | -0.41% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 197.39 | -1.95 | -0.98% |
Oil Market
Oil lost ground, shedding another $1.11 per barrel, closing at $53.73 per barrel. It was interesting to read a précis of a conference call hosted by JPMorganChase regarding the "Peak Oil" hypothesis; interesting because if a merchant wanker is convinced it's valid, in all likelihood it's not.
The JPM conflab also included a chap called Lynch, who is basically of the view that Peak Oil is not as sensible as is made out, and may in fact be a scam deliberately promulgated by the oil industry to increase prices.
It is pretty easy to explain that a lot of the supply constraints being experienced, stem from lack of capacity expansion when oil was at much lower prices - and not from an actual lack of deposits of the black stuff. Few people recall how badly affected the oil-producing nations were, when oil prices threatened to drop into the teens in the 1980s... and given the long lead times required for new capacity to come on stream, any expansion in capacity that might be planned now,will not be online for another two or three years. The JPM conflab didn't contain any content discern regarding the abiotic oil hypothesis... of which more later. Still, a lot of relatively undeveloped countries (Venezuela, for example) are having an absolute field day at the moment, and are getting massive foreign reserve accumulation...)
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) shed 2.77 points (0.33%), closing at 837.02
- Unocal (UCL) -$0.50 (0.84%) to $59.10;
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -$0.57 (0.82%) to $69.23; and
- Kerr Mcgee (KMG) -$0.57 (0.73%) to $77.98.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index added 1.78 points (1.31%), closing at 137.18
- BJ Services (BJS) +$1.55 (3.11%) to $51.46;
- Cooper Cameron (CAM) +$0.99 (1.8%) to $56.01; and
- Noble Corp (NE) +$0.91 (1.68%) to $55.20.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 317.36 | 10.48 | 3.42% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 53.73 | -1.11 | -2.02% |
| Heating Oil | 1.539 | -0.01 | -0.61% |
| Natural Gas | 7.019 | 5.96 | 560.92% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.57 | -0.03 | -1.83% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 837.02 | -2.77 | -0.33% |
| Oil Service Index | 137.18 | 1.78 | 1.31% |
Currency Markets
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 84.54 | 0.36 | 0.43% |
| Euro | 1.2878 | -0.0061 | -0.47% |
| Yen | 107.35 | 1.02 | 0.96% |
| Sterling | 1.8655 | -0.0037 | -0.2% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7675 | -0.004 | -0.52% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.2051 | 0.004 | 0.33% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.8216 | -0.0007 | -0.09% |
