Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

OzRant: Market Sits Pat Until RBA Decision...

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Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 8.00 points (0.19%), finishing at 4117.20 points. The index dipped down to its session low of 4101.6 about twenty minutes after the open, then bounced of yet another "massaged" test of 4100. From there, the All Ords rose to the mid-teens, hitting a morning peak of about 4114. After crawwling back down to 4105, a final afternoon "surge" resulted in the closing print - also the day high - at 4117.20.

It was unimaginably tedious if you're an index trader (and if you are, why on earth would you bother with the SPI? The SGX Nikkei is a far better and more liquid vehicle, and behaves itself much more "technically"). It's pretty obvious that the market is on tenterhooks regarding tomorrow's rate decision by the RBA.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.03 billion units, 0.9% above its 10-day average.178 All Ords index members rose, while 175 fell for the day - call it a draw. Volume in losers was 161m units which was less than the 305.04m units traded in advancing stocks.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 11.60 points (0.28%), finishing at 4132.40 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 6.50 points (0.29%), finishing at 2229.60 points. Within the index members, there were 13 that rose, and 6 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 30.07m units while volume in the losers totalled 33.08m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.54 (2.14%) to $25.80 on volume of 2.08m shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.26 (1.76%) to $15.01 on volume of 1.06m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.21 (1.32%) to $16.11 on volume of 1.71m shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), +$0.12 (1.29%) to $9.42 on volume of 2.62m shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.52 (1.29%) to $40.88 on volume of 591,000 shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.15 (0.91%) to $16.25 on volume of 3.1m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.20 (0.88%) to $22.48 on volume of 2.39m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.19 (0.87%) to $21.66 on volume of 2.08m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.24 (0.53%) to $44.76 on volume of 1.19m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation. (TLS), -$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.03 on volume of 16.23m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index rose by 3.10 points (0.13%), finishing at 2330.10 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), +$0.01 (7.14%) to $0.11 on volume of 903,000 shares;
  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.07 (6.19%) to $1.20 on volume of 993,000 shares;
  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), +$0.01 (5.41%) to $0.20 on volume of 2.62m shares;
  • Metabolic Pharmaceuticals (MBP), +$0.04 (5.3%) to $0.70 on volume of 472,000 shares; and
  • SDI (SDI), +$0.05 (4.35%) to $1.08 on volume of 1.47m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Silex Systems (SLX), -$0.08 (8.25%) to $0.89 on volume of 303,000 shares;
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), -$0.02 (6.98%) to $0.20 on volume of 292,000 shares; and
  • Genetic Technologies (GTG), -$0.03 (6.82%) to $0.41 on volume of 174,000 shares;
  • Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.08 (5.43%) to $1.31 on volume of 216,000 shares; and
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.03 (5.17%) to $0.55 on volume of 1.07m shares.
Index Changes
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4117.280.19%2251.132
XTLS&P/ASX 202229.66.50.29%66.52m
XFLS&P/ASX 504080.712.70.31%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003359.69.50.28%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004132.411.60.28%403.93m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004132.811.10.27%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503987.45.10.13%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2330.13.10.13%132.2m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
XAOXJOXSOASX20Market
Advances178967413392
Declines17584766505
Advancing Volume161m120.62m43.62m30.07270.51
Declining Volume305.04m262.42m70.2m33.08669.37

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Healthcare which gained 1.88% to 4940.70 points. The sector was helped by

  • DCA Group (DVC), +$0.13 (3.96%) to $3.41 on volume of 1.23m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.05 (3.68%) to $1.41 on volume of 427,000 shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$1.10 (3.21%) to $35.42 on volume of 546,000 shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.22 (3.08%) to $7.36 on volume of 158,000 shares; and
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.21 (2.89%) to $7.47 on volume of 486,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Energy which gained 1.47% to 8525.80 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.54 (2.14%) to $25.80 on volume of 2.08m shares;
  • Santos (STO), +$0.19 (2.03%) to $9.56 on volume of 3.97m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.04 (1.9%) to $2.15 on volume of 889,000 shares;
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.03 (1.33%) to $1.91 on volume of 917,000 shares; and
  • Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.05 (0.71%) to $7.09 on volume of 2.62m shares.

The bronze today went to Consumer Staples which gained 0.81% to 5588.70 points. The sector was led by

  • Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.03 (1.42%) to $2.15 on volume of 1.27m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.21 (1.32%) to $16.11 on volume of 1.71m shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), +$0.12 (1.29%) to $9.42 on volume of 2.62m shares;
  • Metcash Trading (MTT), +$0.03 (0.96%) to $3.16 on volume of 1.59m shares; and
  • AWB (AWB), +$0.03 (0.63%) to $4.80 on volume of 1.14m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost 0.73% to 1742.70 points; because this sector is basically "bond-like" - it is bought primarily for yield - the sector will always suffer a little when rates rise (because investors are faced with a slightly higher risk-free yield against which to compare LPT yields). Furthermore, by raising the cost of capital, it can place developers at cost disadvantages which in turn will feed through to priuces and affect the NPV of yields directly as well (i.e., though the cash flow area of the net present value calc, not just through the discount factor). Only 2 of the 23 stocks in the XPJ rose (both of them were ING Trusts - the ING Office and ING Industrial Trusts), and volume in the decliners swamped volume in adavncers within the sector by a factor of almost 17:1.

The biggest percetage losers in the sector were

  • Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.03 (2.36%) to $1.24 on volume of 190,000 shares;
  • Galileo Shopping America Trust (GSA), -$0.03 (2.17%) to $1.13 on volume of 386,000 shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.08 (1.38%) to $5.72 on volume of 1.83m shares;
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.05 (1.14%) to $4.32 on volume of 1.39m shares; and
  • Investa Property Group (IPG), -$0.02 (0.96%) to $2.06 on volume of 2.78m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Materials which lost 0.26% to 7181.30 points - another sector where the NPV of "long tailed" projects is adversely affected (again, through both the discount rate and the increased debt service costs). The sector was pulled down by

  • Lion Selection Group (LSG), -$0.08 (4.15%) to $1.85 on volume of 277,000 shares;
  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), -$0.15 (4.04%) to $3.56 on volume of 2.51m shares; and
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), -$0.16 (3.31%) to $4.67 on volume of 2.07m shares;
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), -$0.17 (3.03%) to $5.44 on volume of 514,000 shares; and
  • Oxiana (OXR), -$0.03 (2.97%) to $0.98 on volume of 9.64m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XHJHealthcare4940.791.41.88%10.51m
XEJEnergy8525.8123.11.47%19.27m
XSJConsumer Staples5588.744.90.81%22.27m
XIJInformation Technology366.52.80.77%5.78m
XNJIndustrials5064.736.90.73%73.59m
XUJUtilities4730.123.70.5%4.32m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts4893.322.20.46%38.29m
XFJFinancials4820.990.19%119.09m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2270.12.80.12%28.36m
XTJTelecommunications1790.8-0.6-0.03%19.73m
XMJMaterials7181.3-18.7-0.26%106.58m
XPJProperty Trusts1742.7-12.9-0.73%83.9m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
RTMReefton Mining0.076-0.044-36.67%201.08m
LHGLihir Gold1.02-0.03-2.86%38.53m
MAPMacquarie Airports3.25-0.05-1.52%38.04m
SRLStraits Resources1.74-0.07-3.87%25.3m
BJTBabcock & Brown Japan Property Trust1.170.064.93%20.25m
ADYAdmiralty Resources.0.15-0.01-6.45%17.22m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
LHGLihir Gold1.02-0.03-2.86%38.53m
MAPMacquarie Airports3.25-0.05-1.52%38.04m
SRLStraits Resources1.74-0.07-3.87%25.3m
TLSTelstra Corporation.5.03-0.02-0.4%16.23m
MDTMacquarie Ddr Trust1.14-0.01-0.87%13.87m

All Ords Percentage Decliners
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
WHFWhitefield3.350.050%2500
WDPWadepack2.5800%600
VTIVirotec International0.5900%30000
VRLPAVillage Roadshow1.9400%13476
UNIUnilife Medical Solutions0.680.010%12600

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 107.78 points (0.92%) at 11775.32 points as this sentence was being typed. The index opened at its low (11695.97 points) and has wafted upwards for the entire session thus far, reaching its session of 11786.65 just about twenty minutes ago..

The Kiwi Market advanced a paltry 1.90 points (0.06%) to 3048.62. After opening with a teensy gap up, the index floated along boringly (and in a tiresomely narrow range) until it hit its session high of 3061.8 with about 45 minuts to go in the session. From there it went nowhere for fifteen minutes, and then fell off a cliff in the last ten minutes to give back the entire day's travel.

A total of 22 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 20.3million units. Decliners numbered 19, and total volume traded in losers was 7.7million shares. Individual percentage-performers included...

  • Feltex Carpets (FTX), +NZ$0.05 (5.81%) to NZ$0.91 on volume of 1.61m shares;
  • Tower Limited Ord (TWR), +NZ$0.07 (3.87%) to NZ$1.88 on volume of 1.57m shares;
  • Restaurant Brands (RBD), +NZ$0.03 (2.46%) to NZ$1.25 on volume of 22,000 shares;
  • Waste Management (WAM), +NZ$0.12 (1.91%) to NZ$6.40 on volume of 91,000 shares;
  • Capital Properties (CNZ), +NZ$0.02 (1.64%) to NZ$1.24 on volume of 120,000 shares; and
  • Freightways Limited (FRE), +NZ$0.04 (1.41%) to NZ$2.88 on volume of 231,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 22.06 points (0.16%). The index dropped to its session low of 13436.96 points about 20 minutes into the session, and rallied just under a hundred points in the next two hours, to post its morning-session high in the 13530's twenty minutes before the lunch break... hows that for symmetry? After lunch, the trade was largely sideways until about half an hour ago, when the index managed to make a marginally new high for the day at 13545.61 points.

Within the Hang Seng, 12 index components rose, while 13 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 131million units, and total volume traded in losers was 105.7million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.55 (3.85%) to HK$14.85 on volume of 10.11m shares;
  • CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.13 (2.96%) to HK$4.35 on volume of 82.11m shares;
  • Esprit Holdings (0330), +HK$1.25 (2.29%) to HK$55.75 on volume of 5.1m shares;
  • Hutchison (0013), +HK$1.00 (1.5%) to HK$67.75 on volume of 13.75m shares;
  • Cosco Pacific (1199), +HK$0.20 (1.19%) to HK$17.00 on volume of 1.61m shares; and
  • Cheung Kong (0001), +HK$0.75 (1.08%) to HK$70.00 on volume of 6.01m shares.
Regional Indices
CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
New ZealandNZSE503048.6251.90.06%29.08m
JapanNikkei 22511775.32107.780.92%78811
KoreaKOSPI982.50.60.06%458761
SingaporeStraits Times2160.612.810.13%0
Hong KongHang Seng13513.4122.060.16%287.55m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp870.162.930.34%0