Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

OzRant: There's That Bounce Again...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Geeze, journalists must just get sick of having stuff happen in exactly the opposite direction to what they write about. "Three days of triple digit declines will lead to a weak Australian market..." was the mindless pabulum they produced yesterday, while we scalped a quick gain from a little bounce.

Today everything was like 1999/2000 - the entire market got its groove on (which is not necessarily a good thing - the triumph of hope over experience, most likely, because the market actually needs its butt kicked a bit harder than it experienced recently.

Even newcomers were welcomed - online job advertiser Seek debuted with a healthy 7%+ listing premium. Sure, it's not the 100%+ listing premia of 2000, but the company is nothing special either. I bet they're glad they didn't debut last week!

Seriously though - people should get past this idea that IPO trading is worthwhile; IPOs are the mechanism by which venture capitalists EXIT their speculations - for the most part, nobody ought to expect there to be a great deal of undiscovered value that is not reflected in the issue price (at least, not long term value). That's why IPOs need shills.

I say this as someone who was the lead analyst on some really good listings(CBio, CVC BizVision, CVC EcoFund, Credit Corp), all of which have generated large capital returns to shareholders; the thing about those is, that they were completely hypeless. These were good little businesses (or promising biotech ventures) that were almost utterly ignored by the shill industry... contrast that with seek.

There is almost an unwritten rule - the more aware you are of the name before it lists for IPO, the less intereste you should be. For every Google there's ten or fifteen DrKoops - and Google (whose product is outstanding, but completely replicable) will eventually trade at $20.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 59.90 points (1.52%), finishing at 3996.40 points. The opened at its low (3936.50) and rose for the entire session (with the exception of the lunch period, when it went sideways), and closed at its high. More than 60% of the day's total gain arrived in bulk in the first hour; at 3 p.m. the index was only 3 points above its 11 a.m. level, nefore a little push into the close cemented the closing print.

Total volume traded on the ASX was pretty lame at 850 million units, 9.9% below its 10-day average. 298 All Ords index members rose, while 85 fell for the day. Volume in gainers was 362.31m units which trounced the 89.71m units traded in declining stocks.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 61.80 points (1.56%), finishing at 4021.20 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 31.50 points (1.47%), finishing at 2170.30 points. All 20 index members rose. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 103.03 million units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.88 (3.73%) to $24.50 on volume of 1.53m shares;
  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.16 (2.85%) to $5.78 on volume of 9.6m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.38 (2.32%) to $16.78 on volume of 19.57m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.15 (2.3%) to $6.66 on volume of 8.18m shares; and
  • St George Bank (SGB), +$0.49 (2.09%) to $23.90 on volume of 903,000 shares.

There were not percentage losers in the big-guns, just stocks that rose by less than a percent. I'm not listing stocks as 'losers' when all they do is rise by less than the rest of the index. (The banks, Woolies and Coles were the least-advancing of the Top 20).

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index rose by 37.60 points (1.71%), finishing at 2231.20 points. Of the 194 stocks in the index, 137 rose while 27 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.6:1, with 89.50 million shares traded in gainers while 34.08 million shares traded in losers. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Sirtex Medical (SRX), +$0.43 (35.25%) to $1.65 on volume of 74,000 shares;
  • Peptech (PTD), +$0.19 (14.18%) to $1.49 on volume of 1.61m shares;
  • Progen Industries (PGL), +$0.40 (13.79%) to $3.30 on volume of 177,000 shares;
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), +$0.02 (11.11%) to $0.20 on volume of 2.18m shares; and
  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.04 (11.11%) to $0.40 on volume of 405,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Nylex (NLX), -$0.05 (15.15%) to $0.28 on volume of 21.01m shares;
  • Highlands Pacific (HIG), -$0.07 (13%) to $0.44 on volume of 1.65m shares; and
  • Agenix (AGX), -$0.02 (5.71%) to $0.33 on volume of 126,000 shares;
  • Bendigo Mining (BDG), -$0.06 (5.17%) to $1.10 on volume of 306,000 shares; and
  • Aquarius Platinum (AQP), -$0.21 (3.49%) to $5.80 on volume of 5,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries3996.459.91.52%2161.249
XTLS&P/ASX 202170.331.51.47%103.03m
XFLS&P/ASX 503968.260.71.55%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003271.549.91.55%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004021.261.81.56%443.36m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004018.161.91.56%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503914.859.21.54%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2231.237.61.71%157.89m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume362.31m314.55m89.5m103.03595.72
Declining Volume89.71m50.76m34.08m0156.68

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 3.09% to 7983.80 points. All 11 stocks in the sector made gains for the session. Total Volume in the sector was 26.50 million - every single share of it in gainers. The biggest percentage moves in the sector were

  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.10 (5.9%) to $1.71 on volume of 477,000 shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.12 (5.53%) to $2.29 on volume of 12.12m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.88 (3.73%) to $24.50 on volume of 1.53m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.06 (3.33%) to $1.86 on volume of 801,000 shares; and
  • Santos (STO), +$0.24 (2.74%) to $8.99 on volume of 2.46m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Healthcare which gained 2.66% to 4743.40 points. Of the 15 stocks in the sector, 13 rose (DCA Group and Chemeq were unchanged). Volume of 12.54 million shares traded in gainers, compared with 2.34 million shares traded in the two stocks that treaded water (on a close-close basis). The sector leaders were -

  • Peptech (PTD), +$0.19 (14.18%) to $1.49 on volume of 1.61m shares;
  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.07 (8.84%) to $0.80 on volume of 1.77m shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.42 (5.75%) to $7.72 on volume of 1.44m shares;
  • CSL (CSL), +$1.15 (3.75%) to $31.82 on volume of 3.39m shares; and
  • Novogen (NRT), +$0.16 (3.6%) to $4.60 on volume of 97,000 shares.

The bronze today went to Materials which gained 1.92% to 6811.10 points. The sector was led by

  • Kimberley Diamond Company. (KIM), +$0.06 (5.67%) to $1.03 on volume of 571,000 shares;
  • Gunns (GNS), +$0.19 (5.05%) to $3.95 on volume of 482,000 shares;
  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.35 (4.95%) to $7.42 on volume of 970,000 shares;
  • Lion Selection Group (LSG), +$0.08 (4.34%) to $1.81 on volume of 380,000 shares; and
  • Timbercorp (TIM), +$0.08 (4.05%) to $1.93 on volume of 839,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which gained 0.76% to 355.80 points. Gained. As is the case when one of the "good" performersloses, it would be remiss not to punish losers for not losing properly. Worst-performed sectors that manage to claw themselves into the green for the day have no interesting story to tell, so I'm not listing the components.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Staples which gained 1.13% to 5444.00 points. If it's not prepared to lose properly, it's not getting a dissection. That's all there is to it.

Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XDJConsumer Discretionary2155.831.11.46%36.66m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts4839.166.81.4%57.39m
XPJProperty Trusts1737.219.71.15%67.96m
XSJConsumer Staples544460.81.13%46.42m
XIJInformation Technology355.82.70.76%4.48m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
SEK 2.310.167.44%28.47m
TLSTelstra Corporation.
BHPBHP Billiton16.780.382.32%19.57m
WMRWMC Resources7.85-0.01-0.13%13.88m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
SRXSirtex Medical1.650.4335.25%74483
PGLProgen Industries.3.30.413.79%177125
DRADragon Mining0.20.0211.11%2.18m
NALNorwood Abbey0.40.0411.11%405240
All Ords Percentage Decliners
HIGHighlands Pacific0.44-0.07-13%1.65m
MSTMetal Storm0.15-0.01-6.45%933926
BDGBendigo Mining1.1-0.06-5.17%305596

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 127.42 points (1.16%) at 11065.86 points as I write this sentence. After opening mixed (and dipping to its session low of 10966.46 at 10:10 Tokyo time), the Nikkei hit its stride and rose over a hundred points in the hour and a half either side of the lunch interval, hitting its intraday high at 11082.84 just before 1:30 p.m. Tokyo time.

The Kiwi Market advanced 17.14 points (0.58%) to 2969.91 points. The NZ market opened at its session low (2951.811 points) and rose consistently over the first hour, with the index hitting its intraday high (2992.166) shortly after 11 a.m. Auckland time. From there is was sideways for the next two hours, and from 1 p.m. onwards the market sagged quite noticeably, giving back almost exactly half of its overall low-high move in the post-lunch period.

A total of 28 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 10.4million units. Decliners numbered 16, and total volume traded in losers was 9.4million shares. Individual percentage gainers included...

  • Michael Hill International (MHI), +NZ$0.60 (9.09%) to NZ$7.20 on volume of 233,000 shares;
  • Pumpkin Patch (PPL), +NZ$0.18 (6.79%) to NZ$2.83 on volume of 444,000 shares;
  • Steel & Tube Holdings (STU), +NZ$0.23 (5.72%) to NZ$4.25 on volume of 95,000 shares;
  • Hellaby Holdings (HBY), +NZ$0.30 (5.45%) to NZ$5.80 on volume of 61,000 shares;
  • Ryman Healthcare (RYM), +NZ$0.15 (4.35%) to NZ$3.60 on volume of 96,000 shares; and
  • Promina Group (PMN), +NZ$0.15 (2.88%) to NZ$5.35 on volume of 123,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 117.96 points (0.88%). The index hit a high of 13499.97 during the session, and fell to 13428.39 points during the session.

Within the Hang Seng, 31 index components rose, just 1 stock fell (Cosco Pacific (1199), which dropped HK$0.15 (0.91%) to HK$16.40 on volume of 4.68m shares). Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 108.3million units, and total volume traded in Cosco was 4.7million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • Henderson Investments (0097), +HK$0.25 (2.42%) to HK$10.60 on volume of 662,000 shares;
  • Esprit Holdings (0330), +HK$1.25 (2.33%) to HK$55.00 on volume of 1.8m shares;
  • CKI Holdings (1038), +HK$0.45 (2.06%) to HK$22.25 on volume of 373,000 shares;
  • HK& China Gas (0003), +HK$0.30 (1.99%) to HK$15.35 on volume of 2.47m shares;
  • Denway Motors (0203), +HK$0.05 (1.9%) to HK$2.68 on volume of 10.62m shares; and
  • CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.08 (1.9%) to HK$4.03 on volume of 27.82m shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE502969.91217.140.58%36.17m
JapanNikkei 22511065.86127.421.16%100161
SingaporeStraits Times2128.4820.810.99%0
Hong KongHang Seng13473.19117.960.88%116.57m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp871.094.430.51%0