Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, April 18, 2005

OzRant: Watch the Nuffies Dive...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

It's probably a good time to think about the relative position of the market - given the horrible performance of the US on Friday, and the fact that the media (i.e., journalists) have been all over the "weak equities" story all weekend.

You couldn't look left or right on the weekend without seeing some hack bloviating about how the US market fell triple digits, three days in a row, and how there's more downside ahead.

Where were they at 10984? Answer: on precisely the other side of the boat. Intraday they were looking ahead to the breach (from below) of 11,000. Today they're talking about the breach (from above) of 10,000.

If you look at a chart (I will put one up later today) you will see that the CCI is the most-oversold it has been for about two years. The market is primed for a good sized bounce (Rampant can point out that last Thursday I said that the market could possibly fall for another couple of weeks... here).

Still, given that it's Monday, the most sensible expectation would be for the market to scream downwards towards 10000 (possibly even breaking it - basis the futures - during the Globex session)... then bounce hard intrasession.

If the US market closes down tonight, I will be very surprised, and the market will be in very deep trouble in the short term; that's why I expect a massive T-back repurchase tonight, and a green close.

If I was a SPI futures trader, I would be buying a one-lot (for a scalp)this morning after half an hour - it might sting intraday, but 10:30 or 11 a.m. is also likely to be when the day's low is set. (Otherwise, it's nasty).