Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

OzRant: Another Kick in the Bum...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Apparently, the RBA didn't increase interest rates. If I care, my subconscious hasn't relayed that care through to my frontal lobe... wait... nope. Seems that I don't give a solitary damn about domestic rates. How odd.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 38.10 points (-0.97%), finishing at 3905.50 points. The index hit an intraday high of 3945.70 (at the open) and its low was 3894.4 at about 3:20 p.m. Sydney time.

The market's now getting pretty heavily oversold, but I don't think that any bounce will be worth holding (it might be fun to watch though). I think we're on our way to at least the mid-point of my previously-stated target range - that means below 3850, and probably even below 3800.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 840 million units. Still not worth writing about in any detail, but at least it's 1.2% above its 10-day average.

Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 297 fell while 82 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 4.2:1, with 410.9 million shares changing hands in the day's losers while 97.9 million shares traded in the stocks lucky enough to post a win for the session.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 39.20 points (-0.98%), finishing at 3947.10 points. A close under 3950 is moderately important, but everything is now oversold enough to give new SPI shorts a bit of a fright. Don't be surprised if the market races up to trigger their stops, then turns south again, leaving newcomer SPI shorts spitting chips and cursing their luck. Luck, my ass... it's just the way the game is played... to the latecomers, the bones (if they're lucky).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 17.00 points (-0.79%), finishing at 2146.60 points. Within the index members, there were 5 that rose, and 15 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 25 while volume in the losers totalled 60.74m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Amcor (AMC), +$0.08 (1.26%) to $6.44 on volume of 2.96m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.25 (0.59%) to $42.27 on volume of 1.71m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.09 (0.56%) to $16.27 on volume of 14.85m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWS), +$0.08 (0.39%) to $20.53 on volume of 3.16m shares; and
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.04 (0.2%) to $19.78 on volume of 2.31m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), -$0.24 (2.79%) to $8.36 on volume of 4.65m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.15 (2.28%) to $6.43 on volume of 10.96m shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.41 (2.11%) to $19.06 on volume of 4.92m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.47 (2%) to $23.05 on volume of 1.44m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.26 (1.68%) to $15.19 on volume of 2.04m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index fell by 23.00 points (-1.07%), finishing at 2132.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Citect Corporation (CTL), +$0.05 (5.68%) to $0.93 on volume of 19,000 shares;
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.04 (4.76%) to $0.88 on volume of 157,000 shares;
  • Mcpherson's (MCP), +$0.13 (4.56%) to $2.98 on volume of 212,000 shares;
  • Primelife Corporation (PLF), +$0.04 (4.17%) to $1.00 on volume of 135,000 shares; and
  • Cellestis (CST), +$0.10 (4.15%) to $2.51 on volume of 371,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Psivida (PSD), -$0.10 (15.08%) to $0.54 on volume of 1.5m shares;
  • Auspine (ANE), -$0.43 (12.18%) to $3.10 on volume of 97,000 shares; and
  • JB Hi-Fi (JBH), -$0.36 (11.04%) to $2.90 on volume of 2.15m shares;
  • Salmat (SLM), -$0.48 (8.79%) to $4.98 on volume of 355,000 shares; and
  • Globe International (GLB), -$0.03 (8.33%) to $0.28 on volume of 228,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries3905.5-38.1-0.97%610.37m
XTLS&P/ASX 202146.6-17-0.79%85.74m
XFLS&P/ASX 503912.3-38.5-0.97%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003217.1-32.2-0.99%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2003947.1-39.2-0.98%527.8m
XKOS&P/ASX 3003940.9-39.8-1%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503790.8-42.5-1.11%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2132.9-23-1.07%160.2m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume97.92m89.97m18.88m25167.91
Declining Volume410.86m366.95m96.14m60.74571.65

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The only sector that showed a gain for the day was Healthcare which gained 0.76% to 4683.10 points. The sector was helped by a huge advance inMayne Group after indicated that it might spin off its global pharmaceuticals business into a separate listing.

Seriously, this sort of stupid knee-jerk response is one of the most irritating things about financial markets. What are people thinking? that Mayne's global Pharma business is currently so poorly managed, that spinning it out into a separate entity will unlock untapped profits/value to the tune of seventeen percent of the stock's capitalisation? That is a bunch of utter wank.

However, there are countermeasures - once the pillocks who buy anything with news start to get burned, MAY will drop reasonably hard.

It's trading at just under 16x trailing earnings (and forecast earnings are a bad joke) which might make you think that it's not going to drop much more than what it stacks on... but it's trading at almost 9x cash flow and 5x book value. Neither of these are fantastic ratios for analysing biotechs, but there's a difference between a genuine biotech and a pharma and healthcare company.

If this revaluation sticks, it means that the market thinks that the current management have manifestly mis-managed the pharma business. If that's so, why hasn't anybody been calling for the responsible managers to be sacked?

Anyhow... apart from MAY, only 4 other stocks in the sector managed a gain, while 9 of the 15 stocks in the sector fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3.0:1 (mostly due to massive turnover in MAY), with 15.51million shares traded in gainers while 5.23million shares traded in losers.

  • Mayne Group (MAY), +$0.60 (17%) to $4.13 on volume of 13.55m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), +$0.03 (2.19%) to $1.40 on volume of 205,000 shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.11 (1.34%) to $8.32 on volume of 1.11m shares;
  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.01 (1.29%) to $0.79 on volume of 314,000 shares; and
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.05 (0.63%) to $7.97 on volume of 334,000 shares.

No other sector advanced for the session: second and third in the "least losers" were Materials which lost -0.04% to 6555.20 points, and Telecommunications which lost -0.67% to 1726.30 points.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 2.02% to 339.70 points. Of the 7 stocks in the sector, 6 fell while 1 managed a gain. (The gainer was IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.10 (2.56%) to $4.00 on volume of 556,000 shares).

Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 8.2:1, with 4.55 million shares traded in losers while 0.56million shares traded in IRE. The sector's biggest percentage losers were -

  • ERG Ltd (ERG), -$0.02 (5.66%) to $0.25 on volume of 1.81m shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.19 (3.69%) to $4.96 on volume of 1.58m shares;
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.02 (2.8%) to $0.52 on volume of 408,000 shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.02 (1.9%) to $1.03 on volume of 231,000 shares; and
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.05 (1.79%) to $2.75 on volume of 331,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Staples which lost 1.94% to 5249.40 points. The sector contains 15 stocks, and today 10 of those stocks fell and just one stock rose (that was Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.02 (0.82%) to $1.85 on volume of 1.4m shares).

Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 17.2:1, with 24.08million shares traded in losers while 1.40million shares traded in FCL. The sector's biggest percentage losers were -

  • Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL), -$0.61 (7.36%) to $7.68 on volume of 5.61m shares;
  • Mcguigan Simeon Wines (MGW), -$0.16 (4.16%) to $3.69 on volume of 807,000 shares; and
  • AWB (AWB), -$0.13 (3%) to $4.20 on volume of 1.1m shares;
  • Coles Myer (CML), -$0.24 (2.79%) to $8.36 on volume of 4.65m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.26 (1.68%) to $15.19 on volume of 2.04m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XDJConsumer Discretionary2047-16.9-0.82%40.33m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts4886.9-67.3-1.36%67.17m
XPJProperty Trusts1693-29.5-1.71%166.52m
XSJConsumer Staples5249.4-104.1-1.94%43.26m
XIJInformation Technology339.7-7-2.02%5.11m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
MGRMirvac Group3.49-0.24-6.43%47.28m
MTSMetcash Trading3.34-0.02-0.6%21.49m
IPGInvesta Property Group1.93-0.06-3.02%20.65m
BHPBHP Billiton16.270.090.56%14.85m
TLSTelstra Corporation.4.79-0.05-1.03%14.57m
DRTDB Rreef Trust1.31-0.01-0.38%14.23m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
MAYMayne Group4.130.617%13.55m
GDMGoldstream Mining0.40.049.59%273438
CYGCoventry Group5.350.459.18%33684
PSAPetsec Energy0.880.044.76%157358

All Ords Percentage Decliners
OMIOccupational & Medical Innovations0.55-0.18-24.66%105220
JBH JB Hi-Fi 2.9-0.36-11.04%2.15m
NHCNew Hope Corporation1-0.12-10.71%131021

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 is still closed for Golden Week. It re-opens again on Friday.

The Kiwi Market declined 7.10 points (-0.24%) at 2991.862 points, in a mind-bendingly lacklustre session (the intraday range was a sappy 8.222 points). The index hit a high of 2998.965 midway through the session, but fell away in the afternoon.

Although the softness wasn't too pronounced (how could it be? the range was only 8 damned points), it's still not particularly salubrious to see the index failing to get through 3000 yet again. The NZSE50 hit its session low at 2990.743 points, ten minutes before the close of proceedings.

A total of 14 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 5.8 million units. Decliners numbered 24, and total volume traded in losers was 16.2 million shares. Individual stocks that led the percentage decliners included...

  • The Warehouse Group (WHS), -NZ$0.16 (4.35%) to NZ$3.52 on volume of 464,000 shares;
  • Property Forest Industries (PFI), -NZ$0.03 (2.8%) to NZ$1.04 on volume of 149,000 shares;
  • AXA Asia Pacific (AXA), -NZ$0.10 (2.22%) to NZ$4.40 on volume of 26,000 shares;
  • Air New Zealand (AIR), -NZ$0.03 (2.13%) to NZ$1.38 on volume of 185,000 shares; and
  • Pumpkin Patch (PPL), -NZ$0.05 (1.89%) to NZ$2.60 on volume of 117,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 52.46 points (0.38%) to sit on 13946.44 at lunch. As with the Kiwi market, the Hongkers market traded in a very narrow range (just under 38 points). It bounced around between 13960 and 19320 for the entire pre-lunch period, hitting a high of 13959.34 and a low of 13921.66: how anyone could make any money scalping in such conditions is beyond me.

Within the Hang Seng, 24 index components rose, while 5 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 59.3million units, and total volume traded in losers was 41.2million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • Esprit Holdings (0330), +HK$0.75 (1.31%) to HK$58.00 on volume of 760,000 shares;
  • SHK Properties (0016), +HK$0.75 (1.01%) to HK$75.25 on volume of 4.1m shares;
  • Denway Motors (0203), +HK$0.03 (0.93%) to HK$2.73 on volume of 8.24m shares;
  • China Resources (0291), +HK$0.10 (0.91%) to HK$11.10 on volume of 960,000 shares;
  • Henderson Investments (0097), +HK$0.10 (0.89%) to HK$11.35 on volume of 370,000 shares; and
  • Wheelock (0020), +HK$0.10 (0.86%) to HK$11.75 on volume of 830,000 shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE502991.862-7.1-0.24%24.91m
JapanNikkei 22511002.11-6.79-0.06%59550
SingaporeStraits Times2149.0211.850.55%0
Hong KongHang Seng13946.4452.460.38%118.28m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp900.918.881%0