Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

OzRant: Dip, Bounce & Hold...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Markets weren't remotely twitterpated about last night's Budget: otherwise the mini-euphoria that took place after the initial dip, would have been more localised, instead of being replicated throughout the region.

A non-reaction to the Canberra wank-fest is sensible, since the Budget only ever contains embroidery... teensy variations to the usual "rape the paypacket" Socialism that the State imposes. And of course it's always with the (unstated) threat of violence... if you don't believe me, try withholding money that the State thinks ought to be in its bank account instead of yours and wait until the chaps with the sidearms come to collect you.

So there's a surplus - whoopee. So there will be an increase in the threshold before the 47c rate... whoopee. Take me back to 1912 when the tax share of GDP was under 6% (it's now close to 30%) and you didn't need a passport to travel around (Your papers please, Comrade). We borrowed billions and billions of dollars (that were passed to defence contractors) and killed millions of "squinty" civilians, to prevent Socialism from being attempted, and as a prize we get to hand over 50c in every dollar to a bunch of complete toss-pots. Lenin must be pissing himself.

If there was a Budget measure that involved a mass suicide of politicians, that would be worth a couple of hundred points on the XAO. If they took half or 2/3rds of the bureaucracy with them, you could tack on another thousand ticks, because by golly we would be 100,000 dead bureaucrats closer to genuine capitalism.


Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 9.50 points (0.24%), finishing at 3958.60 points. Like all the bourses in the region today, the index dipped in the first half hour - the All Ordinaries dropped as low as 3935.10 - before rallying for pretty much the rest of the session (the session high just above 3959 was set just after 2 p.m. - it was sideways from then until the close).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 0.79 billion units, 8.9% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 208 rose while 154 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.2:1, with 268.96million shares traded in gainers while 121.31million shares traded in they days losers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 13.50 points (0.34%), finishing at 4005.70 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by a scant 3.20 points (0.15%), finishing at 2184.90 points. Within the index members, there were 12 that rose, and 8 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 73.28 while volume in the losers totalled 36.8m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.20 (3.1%) to $6.66 on volume of 7.15m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$1.08 (3.02%) to $36.80 on volume of 1.4m shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.46 (1.53%) to $30.45 on volume of 18.5m shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd. (CML), +$0.13 (1.5%) to $8.81 on volume of 4.96m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.20 (1.37%) to $14.85 on volume of 1.13m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.13 (2.22%) to $5.73 on volume of 5.75m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.92 (2.07%) to $43.63 on volume of 4.87m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.37 (1.83%) to $19.83 on volume of 1.94m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.27 (1.62%) to $16.43 on volume of 12.08m shares; and
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.27 (1.29%) to $20.61 on volume of 3.86m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 10.30 points (0.48%), finishing at 2148.60 points. Of the 194 stocks in the index, 94 rose while 70 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.1:1, with 69.06 million shares traded in gainers compared to 32.75 million shares traded in losers. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.26 (26.98%) to $1.20 on volume of 8.19m shares;
  • Schaffer Corporation (SFC), +$0.61 (12.2%) to $5.61 on volume of 70,000 shares;
  • Psivida (PSD), +$0.07 (11.57%) to $0.68 on volume of 1.34m shares;
  • IOOF Holdings (IFL), +$0.62 (10.51%) to $6.52 on volume of 225,000 shares; and
  • Sally Malay Mining (SMY), +$0.08 (9.49%) to $0.87 on volume of 964,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • SDI (SDI), -$0.13 (16.25%) to $0.67 on volume of 1.16m shares;
  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.05 (8.33%) to $0.55 on volume of 5.59m shares; and
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), -$0.07 (6.22%) to $0.98 on volume of 255,000 shares;
  • Primelife Corporation (PLF), -$0.06 (5.37%) to $0.97 on volume of 175,000 shares; and
  • Miller's Retail (MRL), -$0.04 (4.7%) to $0.71 on volume of 183,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries3958.69.50.24%477.74m
XTLS&P/ASX 202184.93.20.15%110.08m
XFLS&P/ASX 503974.99.90.25%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003266.510.40.32%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2004005.713.50.34%429.01m
XKOS&P/ASX 3003998.613.30.33%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503835.128.10.74%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2148.610.30.48%138.66m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume268.96m282.94m69.06m73.28362.2
Declining Volume121.31m100.87m32.75m36.8350.89

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Industrials which gained 0.87% to 4717.30 points. Of the 25 stocks in the sector, 16 rose while 8 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.6:1, with 25.12million shares traded in gainers while 15.47million shares traded in losers. The sector was helped by

  • United Group (UGL), +$0.28 (3.68%) to $7.88 on volume of 559,000 shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$1.08 (3.02%) to $36.80 on volume of 1.4m shares;
  • Patrick Corporation (PRK), +$0.11 (2.12%) to $5.30 on volume of 951,000 shares; and
  • Toll Holdings (TOL), +$0.25 (2.12%) to $12.05 on volume of 1.3m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Property Trusts which gained 0.81% to 1740.10 points. Boring. I hate them. List them elsewhere (the eventual release of RantPro will devote very very very very very little space to LPT's - if you're analysing them, Price to NTA and tax-adjusted distribution yield is pretty much all you need (maybe some analysis of the sectoral decomposition of their portfolios by property type, but only to show off).

The sector leaders (who cares?) were -

  • Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), +$0.06 (3.51%) to $1.77 on volume of 248,000 shares;
  • Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.10 (2.74%) to $3.75 on volume of 2.77m shares;
  • ING Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.03 (1.42%) to $2.14 on volume of 3m shares;
  • Galileo Shopping America Trust (GSA), +$0.02 (1.33%) to $1.15 on volume of 2.98m shares; and
  • CFS Gandel Retail Trust (GAN), +$0.02 (1.27%) to $1.59 on volume of 5.77m shares.

The bronze today went to Financials which gained 0.79% to 4869.10 points. Of the 49 stocks in the sector, 34 rose while 6 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 9.0:1, with 102.26 million shares traded in gainers while a paltry 11.33 million shares changed hands in the sector's losers. The sector's biggest percentage gains were had by -

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL), +$0.62 (10.51%) to $6.52 on volume of 225,000 shares;
  • Lend Lease Corporation (LLC), +$0.60 (5.29%) to $11.95 on volume of 946,000 shares;
  • Perpetual Trustees Australia (PPT), +$2.05 (3.94%) to $54.05 on volume of 82,000 shares;
  • Bunnings Warehouse Property Trust (BWP), +$0.06 (3.51%) to $1.77 on volume of 248,000 shares; and
  • Record Investments (RCD), +$0.16 (3.48%) to $4.76 on volume of 234,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Materials which lost 0.82% to 6676.70 points. The sector is the most populous in the Australian market, with 37 components. Of those, 19 rose while 16 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.3:1, with 43.07 million shares traded in losers compared to the 32.55million shares traded in gainers. Individual losers (on a percentage basis) were -

  • Onesteel (OST), -$0.07 (2.87%) to $2.37 on volume of 1.94m shares;
  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.13 (2.22%) to $5.73 on volume of 5.75m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.92 (2.07%) to $43.63 on volume of 4.87m shares;
  • Centennial Coal Company (CEY), -$0.10 (2.05%) to $4.78 on volume of 620,000 shares; and
  • Oxiana (OXR), -$0.02 (1.72%) to $0.86 on volume of 2.93m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.15% to 2063.10 points. Of the 29 stocks in the sector, 18 rose while 11 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.3:1, with 23.15 million shares traded in the sector's winners, and 17.44 million shares changing hands in the losers. The sector was pulled down mostly by the two gobbets of New Corpse, which fell almost 2% apiece (and whose market cap weighting within the sector means that it pretty well dominates the other stocks when it comes to determining the day's sector index). Other stocks that declined (on a percentage basis) were.

  • Miller's Retail (MRL), -$0.04 (4.7%) to $0.71 on volume of 183,000 shares;
  • Repco Corporation (RCL), -$0.08 (3.1%) to $2.50 on volume of 270,000 shares; and
  • Unitab (UTB), -$0.32 (2.76%) to $11.26 on volume of 583,000 shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.37 (1.83%) to $19.83 on volume of 1.94m shares; and
  • Just Group (JST), -$0.04 (1.77%) to $2.22 on volume of 1.51m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XPJProperty Trusts1740.1140.81%91.14m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts4958.438.80.79%60.92m
XSJConsumer Staples5303.623.10.44%34.76m
XIJInformation Technology338.2-0.2-0.06%2.61m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2063.1-3-0.15%40.58m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation.4.840.020.41%21.22m
NABNational Australia Bank30.450.461.53%18.5m
LHGLihir Gold1.030.021.98%15.18m
MIGMacquarie Infrastructure Group3.510.010.29%13.72m
BHPBHP Billiton16.43-0.27-1.62%12.08m
MGRMirvac Group3.590.010.28%11.85m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
VCRVentracor 1.20 0.2626.98%8.19m
SFCSchaffer Corporation5.610.6112.2%70179
IFLIOOF Holdings6.520.6210.51%225243
SMYSally Malay Mining0.870.089.49%964481

All Ords Percentage Decliners
AWPArrow Pharmaceuticals2.58-9.82-79.19%34450
AAUAdcorp Australia0.83-0.12-12.63%254165
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.55-0.05-8.33%5.59m
UNIUnilife Medical Solutions0.65-0.05-7.14%248000

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 38.76 points (-0.35%) to close at 11120.7 points, closing at its high after yet another little suspect uptick in the last 5 minutes (without which, the Nikkei would have closed under 11100). The index fell to 11038.26 points just before 10 a.m. Tokyo time, and from there bounced back towards 11100; it flirted around that level for the last 4 hours of the session.

The Kiwi Market advanced 12.11 points (0.42%). The index fell to 2889.856 points within a half hour of the open, then rallied non-stop through to the close, hitting its session high of 2913.75 right at the closing bell. Still, 3000 now seems so far away...

A total of 18 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 50.2million units. Decliners numbered 18, and total volume traded in losers was 3.7 million shares. Individual stocks that shone (on a percentage gain basis) included...

  • Sky City Entertainment (SKC), +NZ$0.20 (4.82%) to NZ$4.35 on volume of 3.16m shares;
  • Lion Nathan (LNN), +NZ$0.29 (4.03%) to NZ$7.49 on volume of 9,000 shares;
  • Promina Group (PMN), +NZ$0.15 (2.83%) to NZ$5.45 on volume of 8,000 shares;
  • Auckland International Airport (AIA), +NZ$0.05 (2.66%) to NZ$1.93 on volume of 2.48m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +NZ$0.15 (2.21%) to NZ$6.95 on volume of 13,000 shares; and
  • NGC Holdings (NGC), +NZ$0.07 (2.15%) to NZ$3.33 on volume of 585,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 84.93 points (-0.61%) to sit at 13933.45 during the luncheon interval. The index opened weak, dropping 122 points to 13895.27 points, after just half an hour of trade. From there it was yet another zig upwards, adding 90 points to the index in just under an hour, to the session high (so far) of 13973.62 points.

Within the Hang Seng, 2 index components rose, while 24 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 16.7million units, and total volume traded in losers was 70.3million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the decline included...

  • Denway Motors (0203), -HK$0.05 (1.85%) to HK$2.65 on volume of 4.9m shares;
  • Wheelock (0020), -HK$0.20 (1.68%) to HK$11.70 on volume of 303,000 shares;
  • China Unicom (0762), -HK$0.10 (1.59%) to HK$6.20 on volume of 1.28m shares;
  • China Mobile (0941), -HK$0.40 (1.44%) to HK$27.30 on volume of 14.12m shares;
  • Henderson Investments (0097), -HK$0.15 (1.3%) to HK$11.35 on volume of 319,000 shares; and
  • Yue Yuen Industries (0551), -HK$0.30 (1.29%) to HK$22.90 on volume of 123,000 shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE502913.7512.110.42%58.05m
JapanNikkei 22511120.7-38.76-0.35%71674
SingaporeStraits Times2163.04-2.81-0.13%0
Hong KongHang Seng13933.45-84.93-0.61%110.35m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp894.5-8.34-0.92%0