Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
There's a prevailing optimism that would be endearing if it wasn't so misplaced; before the weekend is finished I hope to be able to present a nice comprehensive summary of the valuation metrics for each of the major indices (XAO, XJO, XSO, XTL), just to point out where the overvaluation risk is; if I get time I'll also chuck in some easy technical stuff; sadly stuff like an "XAOVix" to measure implied volatility is probably in the 'too hard basket' for now, but we'll see; after all , with the US Markets closed on Monday I will have a whole day free to prepare stuff.
Suffice it to say, that the market is stretched like the elastic on Chief Wiggum's undies. It hasn't bounced to a new high (not by a long chalk) and yet it's gripped by near-manic levels of optimism. Markets like that do not provide healthy long-term returns.
Cynics among you might think
that I just want the market to decline so that I can launch the RantPro Model Portfolios
at a nice cyclical low; the fact is that it's not going to be necessary
to require a cyclical low to beat the index (and pretty much every
manager out there). Anyone who saw the performance of the InvestorWeb Model
Portfolios when I was in
charge, knows that process and diligent application of principles will
always beat index, so long as both process and principles are not
stupid (we always outperformed benchmark, with lower
volatility. Plus, since the portfolios are not the size of a
supertanker, they're not as highly constrained as those managed by the
professional mismanagers...
Add in some technicals to enable periodic hedging (probably through selling covered calls) and they'll be fun to watch. OK, fun is perhaps a strong word.
Just before we get started, two things, both related to Schappelle Corby (spelling?). I don't give a toss if she's guilty or not; the Australian government rapes our pay-packets to pay fat inbred idiotic wankers like Downer to swan around the planet on our behalf, but holding an Australian passport is not worth dick. There is fuck-all consular support if a citizen gets in the shit overseas... in fact you're reasonably likely to get chucked behind the wire even if you stay in-country (ask Cornelia Rau or any of the 200 otehr citizens who are wrongly in detention).
Honestly - when are people going to start publicly assaulting these shitbags who spend entire lives sucking at the public teat? If someone smacked Downer in this inbred fat mouche every time he stuck his head out in public, maybe it would send the right message to the next generation of parasites.... get a job, kiddie, don't become a politician, or you too will end up with red welts on your fat smirking smug shit of a face.
Also, the crime for which Ms Corby is being imprisoned is a farce - like alcohol prohibition, eventually the State will recognise the stupidity of the law. Will the State then compensate people who transgressed a stupid set of laws? Not on your fucking life, sport...
Major Market Indices
The
broad market - the ASX All
Ordinaries - rose by 23.50
points (0.58%), finishing at 4073.90 points. The index opened at its
low (4050.1) and hit an intraday high of 4076.50 (let's call that
4075-ish). given that the index was trading at about 4070 at 11:45
a.m., you can guess that the afternoon was a dull affair indeed
Total volume traded on the ASX was a respectable 810 million units, 4.2% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 212 rose while 146 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.1:1, with 321.72 million shares traded in gainers while 154.07 million shares traded in the days losers.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 23.20 points (0.57%), finishing at 4116.40 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 13.00 points (0.58%), finishing at 2240.70 points. Within the index members, there were 13 that rose, and 5 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 131.92m shares, while volume in the losers totalled 32.49m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.42 (2.62%) to $16.47 on volume of 31.43m shares;
- Amcor (AMC), +$0.16 (2.37%) to $6.92 on volume of 3.72m shares;
- Telstra Corporation. (TLS), +$0.10 (2.03%) to $5.02 on volume of 29.6m shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.82 (1.94%) to $43.17 on volume of 7.82m shares; and
- Alumina (AWC), +$0.08 (1.46%) to $5.56 on volume of 5.61m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.11 (0.55%) to $19.81 on volume of 7.71m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.13 (0.53%) to $24.58 on volume of 3.02m shares;
- Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), -$0.14 (0.37%) to $37.34 on volume of 4.28m shares;
- National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.09 (0.28%) to $31.71 on volume of 13.89m shares; and
- Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.04 (0.24%) to $16.71 on volume of 3.6m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the richest hunting ground for good stock pickers - rose by 13.90 points (0.63%), finishing at 2235.80 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Miller's Retail (MRL), +$0.07 (9.35%) to $0.76 on volume of 1.86m shares;
- AAV (AVV), +$0.05 (4.35%) to $1.20 on volume of 98,000 shares;
- Sai Global (SAI), +$0.10 (4.17%) to $2.50 on volume of 17,000 shares;
- Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.07 (3.8%) to $1.78 on volume of 224,000 shares; and
- Perseverance Corporation (PSV), +$0.01 (3.77%) to $0.28 on volume of 718,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Agenix (AGX), -$0.03 (7.35%) to $0.32 on volume of 173,000 shares;
- Psivida (PSD), -$0.05 (5.84%) to $0.73 on volume of 951,000 shares; and
- Adsteam Marine (ADZ), -$0.11 (5.5%) to $1.89 on volume of 791,000 shares;
- Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.05 (5.32%) to $0.89 on volume of 301,000 shares; and
- Emperor Mines (EMP), -$0.02 (5%) to $0.29 on volume of 5,000 shares.
| Index Changes | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4073.9 | 23.5 | 0.58% | 590.56m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2240.7 | 13 | 0.58% | 179.52m |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4075.2 | 23 | 0.57% | 0 |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3351.8 | 18.5 | 0.56% | 0 |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4116.4 | 23.2 | 0.57% | 510.83m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4108.1 | 22.9 | 0.56% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3954.9 | 19.2 | 0.49% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2235.8 | 13.9 | 0.63% | 120.31m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
| Market Breadth | |||||
| XAO | XJO | XSO | ASX20 | Market | |
| Advances | 212 | 118 | 83 | 13 | 475 |
| Declines | 146 | 58 | 67 | 5 | 371 |
| Advancing Volume | 321.72m | 301.63m | 58.27m | 131.92 | 463.11 |
| Declining Volume | 154.07m | 137.05m | 25.61m | 32.49 | 231.27 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was Telecommunications which gained 2.00% to 1787.20 points. Both Telstra and Telecom NZ rose - Telstra rose more, though...
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.10 (2.03%) to $5.02 on volume of 29.6m shares;
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.09 (1.62%) to $5.63 on volume of 1.1m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was Materials which gained 1.70% to 6751.00 points. Of the 37 stocks in the sector, 27 rose while 8 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.5:1, with 95.59 million shares traded in gainers while 38.15 million shares traded in losers. The sector leaders were -
- Orica (ORI), +$0.49 (3.25%) to $15.59 on volume of 3.8m shares;
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.09 (3.17%) to $2.93 on volume of 18.28m shares;
- Croesus Mining (CRS), +$0.01 (3.08%) to $0.34 on volume of 387,000 shares;
- Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.16 (2.77%) to $5.94 on volume of 490,000 shares; and
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.42 (2.62%) to $16.47 on volume of 31.43m shares.
The bronze today went to Information Technology which gained 0.74% to 369.70 points. The sector was led by
- Computershare (CPU), +$0.10 (1.77%) to $5.74 on volume of 874,000 shares;
- IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.04 (0.97%) to $4.18 on volume of 46,000 shares;
- Vision Systems. (VSL), +$0.01 (0.52%) to $0.96 on volume of 220,000 shares;
- MYOB (MYO), +$0.01 (0.47%) to $1.07 on volume of 1.16m shares; and
- ERG (ERG), -$0.00 (0%) to $0.26 on volume of 683,000 shares.
The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost a teensy 0.09% to 1743.10 points. HArdly fair to call it a loss, but it went backwards so it's a loss. Plus, anything chance to have a dig at Property Trusts (did I mention how dull they are? Yield plus P/NTA is not analysis...). The sector was dragged lower by
- Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.06 (1.76%) to $3.35 on volume of 5.16m shares;
- General Property Trust (GPT), -$0.04 (1.13%) to $3.51 on volume of 11.13m shares; and
- Stockland (SGP), -$0.04 (0.73%) to $5.46 on volume of 2.78m shares;
- Valad Property Group (VPG), -$0.01 (0.4%) to $1.25 on volume of 655,000 shares; and
- Macquarie Office Trust (MOF), -$0.01 (0.39%) to $1.27 on volume of 1.05m shares.
Just in
front of last place on the sector table was Energy
which lost 0.07% to 8270.50 points; again, it's not a huge loss...
The
sector was pulled down by just 4 of its component stocks:
- Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.03 (1.52%) to $1.95 on volume of 126,000 shares;
- Caltex Australia (CTX), -$0.09 (0.61%) to $14.60 on volume of 560,000 shares; and
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL),
-$0.13 (0.53%) to $24.58 on volume of 3.02m shares; and
- Oil Search (OSH), -$0.01 (0.4%) to $2.47 on volume of 8.02m shares.
| Sector Indices | |||||
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1787.2 | 35 | 2% | 30.69m |
| XMJ | Materials | 6751 | 113.1 | 1.7% | 139.8m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 369.7 | 2.7 | 0.74% | 3.63m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4843.5 | 32.5 | 0.68% | 3.77m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 4943.3 | 31.7 | 0.65% | 50.77m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5551.3 | 31.4 | 0.57% | 54.64m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2178.4 | 7.1 | 0.33% | 41.25m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5122.1 | 5.6 | 0.11% | 78.39m |
| XFJ | Financials | 4996.3 | 3.4 | 0.07% | 141.25m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 4827.8 | 3 | 0.06% | 14.11m |
| XEJ | Energy | 8270.5 | -5.8 | -0.07% | 29.17m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1743.1 | -1.5 | -0.09% | 66.46m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
| All Ords Volume Leaders | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 16.47 | 0.42 | 2.62% | 31.43m |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 5.02 | 0.1 | 2.03% | 29.6m |
| ZFX | Zinifex | 2.93 | 0.09 | 3.17% | 18.28m |
| AMP | AMP Limited | 6.78 | 0.02 | 0.3% | 17.18m |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | 31.71 | -0.09 | -0.28% | 13.89m |
| NWS | News Corporation | 21.88 | 0.08 | 0.37% | 13.49m |
| All Ords Percentage Gainers | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| MXL | MXL | 0.16 | 0.02 | 14.29% | 11.19m |
| CBH | CBH Resources | 0.29 | 0.03 | 9.43% | 2.73m |
| MRL | Miller's Retail | 0.76 | 0.07 | 9.35% | 1.86m |
| SMX | Sms Management & Technology. | 1.61 | 0.11 | 7.33% | 73736 |
| AVV | AAV | 1.2 | 0.05 | 4.35% | 97937 |
| All Ords Percentage Decliners | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| AGX | Agenix | 0.32 | -0.03 | -7.35% | 172741 |
| GFD | Green's Foods | 0.52 | -0.04 | -6.36% | 232020 |
| RKN | Reckon | 0.77 | -0.05 | -6.1% | 1.22m |
| PSD | Psivida | 0.73 | -0.05 | -5.84% | 950754 |
| HTA | Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) | 0.26 | -0.02 | -5.56% | 1.59m |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Japan's Nikkei
225 rose 164.39 points (1.49%)
to close at 11192.33 points (the index stacked on 42 points in the last
5 minutes... the closing pump on a Friday? How odd). It was a generally
slow day - as befits Fridays - the index gapped up to open at just
under 11100 points, then traded between 11100 and 11150 for during the
morning session (hitting its session low at 11089.23 points a half-hour
after the open). The afternoon started out with a strong resemblance to
the morning session, with the index wafting between 11100 and 11160
until the sudden burst in the last five minutes.
The Kiwi
Market advanced 19.88 points (0.66%) to close at 3027.221 points. The
index hit a high of 3027.506 after opening at 3007.344 points (also the
session low). Once again, it was pretty sideways between 3015 and 3025
until a last-ten-minutes push into the close.
A total of 24 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 16.9million units. Decliners numbered 16, and total volume traded in losers was 7million shares. Individual stocks that dud well included...
- Mainfreight (MFT), +NZ$0.09 (3.83%) to NZ$2.44 on volume of 29,000 shares;
- Tower Limited Ord (TWR), +NZ$0.07 (3.54%) to NZ$2.05 on volume of 436,000 shares;
- Trustpower (TPW), +NZ$0.19 (3.42%) to NZ$5.75 on volume of 22,000 shares;
- Port Of Tauranga (POT), +NZ$0.11 (2.35%) to NZ$4.80 on volume of 56,000 shares;
- Waste Management (WAM), +NZ$0.13 (2.12%) to NZ$6.25 on volume of 87,000 shares; and
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), +NZ$0.11 (2.1%) to NZ$5.34 on volume of 479,000 shares.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced a healthy 133.64 points (0.98%) to 13703.63 points. The index hit a high of 13738.71 at 3 p.m. HK time, after falling to 113669.2points during the morning part of the session.
Within the Hang Seng, 31 index components rose, and no index members fell (PCCW and Hang Seng Bank were unchanged). Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 116million units, and of course there was no volume in losers. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...
- Lenovo Group (0992), +HK$0.08 (3.23%) to HK$2.40 on volume of 10.07m shares;
- China Merchant Holdings (0144), +HK$0.45 (3.21%) to HK$14.45 on volume of 4.3m shares;
- China Unicom (0762), +HK$0.15 (2.5%) to HK$6.15 on volume of 1.43m shares;
- CKI Holdings (1038), +HK$0.50 (2.2%) to HK$23.25 on volume of 276,000 shares;
- Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.30 (2.13%) to HK$14.40 on volume of 5.21m shares; and
- Denway Motors (0203), +HK$0.05 (1.96%) to HK$2.60 on volume of 7.05m shares.
| Regional Indices | |||||
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3027.221 | 19.88 | 0.66% | 25.36m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 11192.33 | 164.39 | 1.49% | 69508 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 960.91 | 17 | 1.8% | 296925 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2159.43 | 6.87 | 0.32% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 13703.63 | 133.64 | 0.98% | 121.69m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 866.16 | -0.94 | -0.11% | 0 |
