Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.
On Friday I mentioned that I was going to prepare a little 'Show and Tell' about the Australian market - basically pointing out why I think that the market is still due for a rinse-out. I'm still in the middle of that, and it will be published tomorrow morning in place of the normal USRant (because the US is closed to celebrate the ability of governments to generate martial hysteria amongst young men, and send them to be killed).
The short insight is that, when
markets are overvalued, they provide poor longer-term returns. No shock
there. The next idea is that the market is now providing abysmal
franked yield, and is richly valued relative to historical experience
(although I've only gone back as far as 1998). Add in the technical
picture, and you get a synchronicity that is the opposite
of what you want to see in order for an index to be worth buying.
Major Market Indices
The
broad market - the ASX All
Ordinaries - rose by 15.60
points (0.38%), finishing at 4089.50 points. The index opened at its
low (4073.9) and rose in a single move to an intraday high of 4090.40
just after 2 p.m. Sydney time. After the most modest of pullbacks it
then tried to surge into
the close, but just failed to set a new intraday high. In short, ti was
a Monday...
Total
volume traded on the ASX was pretty feeble, at 670 million units -
that's 13.0% below its 10-day average, and the average has been getting
softer by the month as well.
Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 198 rose while 168 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.4:1, with 215.48 million shares traded in gainers while 150.96 million shares traded in the day's losers.
The
Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share
Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX
200 - rose by 16.30 points
(0.40%), finishing at 4132.70 points. There is still this sense of
'circling the wagons' - note in today's index table that the narrower
the index, the greater the percentage advance... the Top 20 went up
more than the Top 50, the Top 50 beat the Top 100, and so on.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 15.80 points (0.71%), finishing at 2256.50 points. Within the index members, there were 16 that rose, and 4 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 64.39m units, and volume in the losers totalled 12.13m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.40 (2.43%) to $16.85 on volume of 15.47m shares;
- Alumina (AWC), +$0.10 (1.8%) to $5.66 on volume of 2.24m shares;
- Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.34 (1.39%) to $24.88 on volume of 835,000 shares;
- News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.25 (1.18%) to $21.45 on volume of 790,000 shares; and
- News Corporation (NWS), +$0.25 (1.14%) to $22.13 on volume of 2.03m shares.
The four losers in the big-guns were as follows:
- AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.09 (1.33%) to $6.68 on volume of 5.8m shares;
- QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.14 (0.94%) to $14.70 on volume of 2.07m shares;
- Foster's Group (FGL),
-$0.05 (0.92%) to $5.40 on volume of 4.06m shares; and
- Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.02 (0.05%) to $36.70 on volume of 209,000 shares.
At the
smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX
Small Ordinaries Index rose by
8.60 points (0.38%), finishing at 2244.40 points. Of the 194 stocks in
the index, 90 rose while 68 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of
the gainers by a margin of 2.2:1, with 79.29million shares
traded in gainers while 36.55million shares traded
in losers.
As with the broader market, there is a 'size bias' in the Small Ords that ought to be of concern. What it looks like, is that money is being progressively shifted out of small-caps, moving up the capitalisation scale (as if folks think that bigger market cap implies less risk... despite the fact that the Top 20 is trading at a PE multiple of almost 19x and a yield of just under 2%).
The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.003 (20%) to $0.018 on volume of 30.8m shares;
- Miller's Retail (MRL), +$0.10 (12.82%) to $0.88 on volume of 1.34m shares;
- Ventracor (VCR), +$0.14 (10.93%) to $1.37 on volume of 9.53m shares;
- ERG (ERG), +$0.03 (9.8%) to $0.28 on volume of 8.63m shares; and
- Psivida (PSD), +$0.06 (8.33%) to $0.78 on volume of 626,000 shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Primelife Corporation (PLF), -$0.08 (8.6%) to $0.85 on volume of 364,000 shares;
- Austral Coal (AUO), -$0.11 (8.15%) to $1.24 on volume of 19,000 shares; and
- Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.11 (7.14%) to $1.37 on volume of 420,000 shares;
- Metabolic Pharmaceuticals (MBP), -$0.05 (6.21%) to $0.76 on volume of 293,000 shares; and
- Genetic Technologies (GTG), -$0.02 (5.56%) to $0.34 on volume of 417,000 shares.
| Index Changes | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4089.5 | 15.6 | 0.38% | 446.62m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2256.5 | 15.8 | 0.71% | 76.52m |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4094.3 | 19.1 | 0.47% | 151.94m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3365.1 | 13.3 | 0.4% | 231.96m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4132.7 | 16.3 | 0.4% | 328.11m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4124.3 | 16.2 | 0.39% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 3953.3 | -1.6 | -0.04% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2244.4 | 8.6 | 0.38% | 155.33m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
| Market Breadth | |||||
| XAO | XJO | XSO | ASX20 | Market | |
| Advances | 198 | 101 | 90 | 16 | 447 |
| Declines | 168 | 75 | 68 | 4 | 440 |
| Advancing Volume | 215.48m | 159.22m | 79.29m | 64.39 | 305.56 |
| Declining Volume | 150.96m | 126.51m | 36.55m | 12.13 | 263.77 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 1.43% to 8389.00 points after oil's continued firmness on Friday (partly a response to the near-death of 'King' Fahd; partly a response to oil-rich bits of the planet being overrun by American soldiers). The sector was helped by
- Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.09 (4.79%) to $1.86 on volume of 650,000 shares;
- Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.06 (2.86%) to $1.98 on volume of 204,000 shares;
- Santos (STO), +$0.24 (2.41%) to $10.19 on volume of 1.21m shares;
- Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.04 (2.37%) to $1.73 on volume of 623,000 shares; and
- Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.13 (1.86%) to $7.11 on volume of 687,000 shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was Materials which gained 1.10% to 6825.00 points. The sector leaders were -
- Paperlinx (PPX), +$0.09 (3.72%) to $2.51 on volume of 6.78m shares;
- Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.06 (3.16%) to $1.96 on volume of 749,000 shares;
- Kingsgate Consolidated. (KCN), +$0.08 (3.03%) to $2.72 on volume of 171,000 shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.40 (2.43%) to $16.85 on volume of 15.47m shares; and
- Wattyl (WYL), +$0.05 (2.39%) to $2.14 on volume of 316,000 shares.
The bronze today went to Telecommunications which gained 0.65% to 1798.80 points (yep -Telstra went up). The sector's 2 stocks performed as follows:
- Telstra Corporation. (TLS), +$0.04 (0.8%) to $5.06 on volume of 15.7m shares;
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.01 (0.18%) to $5.63 on volume of 728,000 shares.
The worst-performed sector today was Healthcare which lost 1.06% to 4776.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by
- Resmed Inc (RMD), -$0.33 (3.9%) to $8.13 on volume of 162,000 shares;
- Cochlear (COH), -$0.91 (2.73%) to $32.39 on volume of 110,000 shares; and
- Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.03 (2.38%) to $1.23 on volume of 140,000 shares;
- Novogen (NRT), -$0.11 (2.1%) to $5.14 on volume of 14,000 shares; and
- Peptech (PTD), -$0.02 (1.44%) to $1.37 on volume of 358,000 shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was Industrials which lost 0.25% to 4930.90 points. The sector was pulled down by
- GWA International (GWT), -$0.06 (2.06%) to $2.85 on volume of 111,000 shares;
- Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), -$0.05 (1.3%) to $3.81 on volume of 5.11m shares; and
- Qantas Airways (QAN), -$0.04 (1.22%) to $3.23 on volume of 7.15m shares;
- Brambles Industries (BIL), -$0.09 (1.1%) to $8.11 on volume of 2.8m shares; and
- Spotless Group (SPT), -$0.05 (1.01%) to $4.90 on volume of 51,000 shares.
| Sector Indices | |||||
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| XEJ | Energy | 8389 | 118.5 | 1.43% | 10.17m |
| XMJ | Materials | 6825 | 74 | 1.1% | 81.57m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1798.8 | 11.6 | 0.65% | 16.43m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2189.5 | 11.1 | 0.51% | 22.45m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5138.2 | 16.1 | 0.31% | 44.39m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5008.7 | 12.4 | 0.25% | 110m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 370.1 | 0.4 | 0.11% | 10.12m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5556.3 | 5 | 0.09% | 33.82m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1743.3 | 0.2 | 0.01% | 68.24m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 4836.7 | -6.8 | -0.14% | 3.26m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 4930.9 | -12.4 | -0.25% | 35.84m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 4776.6 | -51.2 | -1.06% | 14.27m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
| All Ords Volume Leaders | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| TLS | Telstra Corporation. | 5.06 | 0.04 | 0.8% | 15.7m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 16.85 | 0.4 | 2.43% | 15.47m |
| WMR | WMC Resources | 7.79 | -0.03 | -0.38% | 10.88m |
| VCR | Ventracor | 1.37 | 0.14 | 10.93% | 9.53m |
| AND | Andean Resources | 0.12 | -0.01 | -4% | 9.4m |
| NCM | Newcrest Mining | 13.24 | -1.61 | -10.84% | 9.16m |
| All Ords Percentage Gainers | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| MUL | Multiemedia | 0.018 | 0.003 | 20% | 30.8m |
| ABI | Ambri | 0.16 | 0.03 | 18.52% | 1.17m |
| MRL | Miller's Retail | 0.88 | 0.1 | 12.82% | 1.34m |
| VCR | Ventracor | 1.37 | 0.14 | 10.93% | 9.53m |
| ERG | ERG | 0.28 | 0.03 | 9.8% | 8.63m |
| All Ords Percentage Decliners | |||||
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| MXL | MXL | 0.15 | -0.02 | -12.12% | 5m |
| NCM | Newcrest Mining | 13.24 | -1.61 | -10.84% | 9.16m |
| PLF | Primelife Corporation | 0.85 | -0.08 | -8.6% | 363567 |
| SDG | Sunland Group | 1.37 | -0.11 | -7.14% | 419987 |
| GFD | Green's Foods | 0.52 | -0.04 | -7.14% | 270221 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Japan's Nikkei
225 rose 74.00 points (0.66%) to
close at 11266.33 points. The index hit a high of 11302.52 at 10 a.m.
Tokyo time (let's call that 11300-ish),
after opening at its low of 11197.79 points (let's call that 11200-ish).
This
fixation on round numbers is worrisome - it shows that nobody is
bothering to examine investment merit... they're just punting on
numbers. I've got no qualms about folks who do that (I do it myself, a
lot), so long as they know that's what they're doing... but when
professional fund mismanagers start doing it when their unitholders
think they're 'investing', the market is usually not far from a
fan-splat.
The Kiwi Market advanced 15.55 points (0.51%). The index hit a high of 3046.283 during the session, after setting an early-session low of 3026.961 points.
A total of 23 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 5.2million units. Decliners numbered 14, and total volume traded in losers was 7.4million shares. That's right - volume in decliners was greater than volume in advancers. Individual stocks that rose the most were as follows...
- The Warehouse Group (WHS), +NZ$0.15 (4.76%) to NZ$3.30 on volume of 1000,000 shares;
- Mainfreight (MFT), +NZ$0.11 (4.51%) to NZ$2.55 on volume of 67,000 shares;
- Pumpkin Patch (PPL), +NZ$0.08 (2.96%) to NZ$2.78 on volume of 50,000 shares;
- Guinness Peat Group (GPG), +NZ$0.03 (1.64%) to NZ$1.86 on volume of 860,000 shares;
- Lion Nathan (LNN), +NZ$0.12 (1.57%) to NZ$7.75 on volume of 19,000 shares; and
- Tower Limited Ord (TWR), +NZ$0.03 (1.46%) to NZ$2.08 on volume of 234,000 shares.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 61.68 points (0.45%). The index dipped in the first hour, setting its session low (so far) at 13684.52 at exactly 11 a.m. Hong Kong time. From there it rose nearly precisely a point a minute to set its session high of 13776.46 just as the luncheon gong sounded.
Within the Hang Seng, 16 index components rose, while 12 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 71.7 million units, and total volume traded in losers was 13.6 million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...
- Swire Pacific A (0019), +HK$1.25 (1.92%) to HK$66.25 on volume of 1.69m shares;
- SHK Properties (0016), +HK$1.25 (1.71%) to HK$74.50 on volume of 3.93m shares;
- Cheung Kong (0001), +HK$1.00 (1.43%) to HK$71.00 on volume of 2.04m shares;
- CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.05 (1.19%) to HK$4.25 on volume of 27.58m shares;
- Lenovo Group (0992), +HK$0.03 (1.04%) to HK$2.43 on volume of 2.23m shares; and
- Denway Motors (0203), +HK$0.03 (0.94%) to HK$2.68 on volume of 5.94m shares.
| Regional Indices | |||||
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3042.767 | 15.55 | 0.51% | 13.3m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 11266.33 | 74 | 0.66% | 78542 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 969.04 | 8.13 | 0.85% | 293962 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2164.15 | 9.45 | 0.44% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 13776.46 | 61.68 | 0.45% | 91.17m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 865.92 | -3.19 | -0.37% | 0 |
