Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

OzRant: Totally Stooged, Uleh...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well, it's about two hundred points since I first declared that the Oz market needed its bum kicked good and hard, and the top of my downside target range (3750-3850) is now less than a hundred points away. Admittedly, that's a wide range, but nobody was suggesting buying when it got to that level. After all, the entrails read "Very danger" (you have to say that with a 'chocky' accent, like Bruno or Paulie from Fat Pizza.

We are about to enter a period of global stagnation, mostly as a result of stupid decisions by a variety of western governments (mostly the US). It will be exacerbated if (when? June, is my bet) the Yanks attack Iran or permit Israel to do so. The effects on the global economy of the resultant conflagration at all global oil chokepoints, will cause such a shock to the global economy that even Bush's hand-picked statispinners will not be able to hedonicise enough statistics to get a positive GDP number.

The chokepoints in question are the Straits of Hormuz (where Iran's Yahkonts SS-NX-26 variants could cause carnage to a carrier battle group, using the littoral environment as cover for ground-launch), and the Straits of Malacca.

Sure, Malacca is almost the other side of the world from Iran, but it's also bristling with pissed-off Islamic folks who rightly object to Uncle Sam throwing its dopey weight around in Muslim affairs. And the US military presence there is near-zero (making it a perfect target) and the US is getting very short of manpower anyhow (15% of all its Iraq manpower is either dead or wounded).

To be frank, I wish the US would hurry up and implode - I have already said that it will be three countries (at least) by the middle third of this century... and if I'm right I win ten bucks. That's two souvlakis and a bottle of chinotto.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - fell by 25.60 points (-0.64%), finishing at 3943.60 points. Like all the indices in the region (except Japan, which was closed) the Oz market's nuffnuffs got all gooey in the groinal region after the US market's late rally, thinking that it boded well for the regional markets today.

The index hit its intraday high of 3987.60 about 12 minutes into the session, re-tested it again ten minutes later, then gave up. The rest of the session was a grind lower, with the session low at 3931.8 points, set with just over half an hour to go. Obviously some people are silly enough to think that the US market will rocket after the FOMC announcement (my guess: it will rally right up to the announcement, in the usual ego-masturbatory show for that hopeless goit Greenspasm... then it will resume its downtrend, and this time bonds will go with it).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 760 million units, a huge improvement on yesterday's pathetic volume but still 9.2% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 263 fell while 108 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 3.8:1, with 316.75million shares traded in losers while 82.38 million shares traded in they days gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 25.00 points (-0.62%), finishing at 3986.30 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - outperformed the broader market, but still fell by 10.30 points (-0.47%), finishing at 2163.60 points. Within the index members, there were 5 that rose, and 14 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 14.22 million units, while volume in the losers totalled 72.41m units.

The winners in the "big guns" were -

  • St George Bank (SGB), +$0.21 (0.84%) to $25.14 on volume of 2.85m shares;
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.11 (0.37%) to $29.50 on volume of 3.65m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.07 (0.36%) to $19.74 on volume of 2.45m shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), +$0.08 (0.22%) to $36.41 on volume of 2.04m shares; and
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.03 (0.15%) to $19.47 on volume of 3.23m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.13 (1.94%) to $6.58 on volume of 6.7m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.30 (1.83%) to $16.08 on volume of 4.6m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.27 (1.64%) to $16.18 on volume of 18.92m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.05 (0.96%) to $5.16 on volume of 7.68m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.14 (0.93%) to $14.84 on volume of 1.69m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index fell by 20.90 points (-0.96%), finishing at 2155.90 points. Of the 194 stocks in the index, 120 fell while 40 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 3.2:1, with 71.44 million shares traded in losers while 22.14 million shares traded in gainers. There were still winners in the "pop-guns" though - the best performed (on a percentage basis) were -

  • Agenix (AGX), +$0.02 (7.84%) to $0.28 on volume of 135,000 shares;
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), +$0.01 (6.25%) to $0.17 on volume of 399,000 shares;
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.02 (6%) to $0.27 on volume of 1.98m shares;
  • Mcpherson's (MCP), +$0.14 (5.17%) to $2.85 on volume of 64,000 shares; and
  • Silex Systems (SLX), +$0.04 (4.46%) to $0.82 on volume of 251,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Schaffer Corporation (SFC), -$1.18 (18.7%) to $5.13 on volume of 54,000 shares;
  • Emperor Mines (EMP), -$0.08 (18.6%) to $0.35 on volume of 57,000 shares; and
  • Fleetwood Corporation (FWD), -$0.75 (11.19%) to $5.95 on volume of 1.09m shares;
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), -$0.09 (9.68%) to $0.84 on volume of 286,000 shares; and
  • Corporate Express Australia (CXP), -$0.50 (8.33%) to $5.50 on volume of 1.06m shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries3943.6-25.6-0.64%2115.71
XTLS&P/ASX 202163.6-10.3-0.47%90.51m
XFLS&P/ASX 503950.8-22.4-0.56%0
XTOS&P/ASX 1003249.3-19.9-0.61%0
XJOS&P/ASX 2003986.3-25-0.62%433.96m
XKOS&P/ASX 3003980.7-25.6-0.64%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 503833.3-33.2-0.86%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2155.9-20.9-0.96%142.46m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume82.38m73.12m22.14m14.22163.85
Declining Volume316.75m280.15m71.44m72.41467.11

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained a feeble 0.14% to 7963.80 points. The gain in the sector was largely a statistical artefact, since of the 11 stocks in the sector, 6 fell while only 4 managed a gain (Oil Search - OSH - was unchanged). Furthermore, volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 11:10, with 8.15 million shares traded in losers while 7.29 million shares traded in gainers. But, since the sector rose, the winners get listed... so here goes -

  • Santos (STO), +$0.24 (2.61%) to $9.45 on volume of 2.27m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.03 (1.69%) to $1.81 on volume of 1.93m shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), +$0.03 (0.43%) to $6.98 on volume of 2.93m shares; and
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.01 (0.3%) to $1.69 on volume of 167,000 shares.

No other sector rose for the day - the next two 'least worst' sectors were Utilities which lost -0.06% to 4878.40 points, and ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which lost -0.08% to 4954.20 points.

The worst-performed sector today was Property Trusts which lost 2.31% to 1722.50 points. As you know, I think property trusts aren't really 'stocks' as such, and they should bugger off and list on the NSX or something. Of the 23 stocks in the sector, 17 fell while just 2 (Macquarie Office Trust and Valad Property group) managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 25.8:1, with 75.87 million shares traded in losers while 2.95 million shares traded in gainers. Good, I hate property trusts (did I mention that?).

The sector was dragged lower by

  • Mirvac Group (MGR), -$0.49 (11.61%) to $3.73 on volume of 10.05m shares;
  • Multiplex Group (MXG), -$0.28 (7.07%) to $3.68 on volume of 2.99m shares; and
  • Investa Property Group (IPG), -$0.09 (4.33%) to $1.99 on volume of 9.87m shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.23 (3.91%) to $5.65 on volume of 10.64m shares; and
  • Thakral Holdings Group (THG), -$0.03 (3.8%) to $0.76 on volume of 274,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Industrials which lost 1.15% to 4772.00 points. Of the 25 stocks in the sector, 20 fell while 4 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 8.8:1, with 42.88 million shares traded in losers while 4.90 million shares traded in gainers. The biggest percentage losers in the sector were

  • Corporate Express Australia (CXP), -$0.50 (8.33%) to $5.50 on volume of 1.06m shares;
  • Downer EDI (DOW), -$0.24 (5.26%) to $4.32 on volume of 749,000 shares; and
  • PMP (PMP), -$0.05 (3.66%) to $1.19 on volume of 1.36m shares;
  • Brambles Industries (BIL), -$0.20 (2.53%) to $7.72 on volume of 3.35m shares; and
  • Leighton Holdings (LEI), -$0.23 (2.26%) to $9.95 on volume of 626,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts4954.2-4.1-0.08%70.31m
XSJConsumer Staples5353.5-21.6-0.4%36.54m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2063.9-11.1-0.53%38m
XIJInformation Technology346.7-2.2-0.63%5.14m
XPJProperty Trusts1722.5-40.7-2.31%101.36m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

TransPacific made its debut today, and Metcash returned to the boards with a new stock code. Both made it into the most heavily traded stock list.

All Ords Volume Leaders
TPITransPacific Industries2.670.020.75%25.4m
BHPBHP Billiton16.18-0.27-1.64%18.92m
QANQantas Airways3.16-0.07-2.17%14.43m
TLSTelstra Corporation.4.84-0.02-0.41%12.69m
MTS Metcash Trading (New Code) 3.360.082.44%11.69m
LHGLihir Gold1.0200%11.13m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
DRADragon Mining0.170.016.25%398670
GFDGreen's Foods0.650.034.84%212000

All Ords Percentage Decliners
SFCSchaffer Corporation5.13-1.18-18.7%54446
MGRMirvac Group3.73-0.49-11.61%10.05m
FWDFleetwood Corporation5.95-0.75-11.19%1.09m
PSAPetsec Energy0.84-0.09-9.68%285739

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 was closed again today for Golden Week - it is also closed tomorrow and Thursday. It opens again on Friday.

The Kiwi Market declined a scant 0.27 points (-0.01%) to close at 2998.965 points. The index got all excited with itself after the late-day rally in the US overnight, and opened with some vum (that's Kiwi-ish for vim). It shot up to its session high of 3012.542 points in the first hour, then gave it all back, eventually finding its feet just below 3000 points. As I have often noted, da Boyz do not let markets close under important numbers by accident - even if it's a teensy little market that only produces sheepskins, timber and cheese (I'm just kudding). The session low was 2998.726 points, set just a minute or two before the final bell.

A total of 22 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 8.6 million units. Decliners numbered 18, and total volume traded in losers was 5.8 million shares. Individual stocks that declined the most (in percentage terms) included...

  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -NZ$0.18 (5.84%) to NZ$2.90 on volume of 94,000 shares;
  • Auckland International Airport(AIA), -NZ$0.05 (2.48%) to NZ$1.97 on volume of 948,000 shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), -NZ$0.15 (2.1%) to NZ$7.00 on volume of 247,000 shares;
  • Restaurant Brands (RBD), -NZ$0.02 (1.52%) to NZ$1.30 on volume of 80,000 shares; and
  • Tenon Limited (TEN), -NZ$0.05 (1.37%) to NZ$3.60 on volume of 43,000 shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced an equally-boring 9.80 points (0.07%). Again it was a story of a twitterpated nuffie-herd in the first hour, with the intraday top of 13994.66 posted at pretty much exactly 11 a.m. Hong Kong time. From there, having failed to breach 14000, traders took it down almost a hundred points in the following 90 minutes, setting the intraday low (so far) at 13909.41 points. The low was set just before 12:30 p.m. Hongkers time, and the HK market is now at lunch.

Within the Hang Seng, 20 index components rose, while just 6 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 76.2 million units, and total volume traded in losers was 18.4 million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.35 (2.44%) to HK$14.70 on volume of 6.55m shares;
  • China Mobile (0941), +HK$0.45 (1.67%) to HK$27.45 on volume of 20.02m shares;
  • Yue Yuen Industrial (0551), +HK$0.30 (1.36%) to HK$22.40 on volume of 621,000 shares;
  • China Merchant Holdings (0144), +HK$0.20 (1.32%) to HK$15.40 on volume of 2.38m shares;
  • HK& China Gas (0003), +HK$0.15 (0.94%) to HK$16.10 on volume of 3.41m shares; and
  • Henderson Investments (0097), +HK$0.10 (0.89%) to HK$11.35 on volume of 644,000 shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE502998.965-0.27-0.01%16.61m
JapanNikkei 22511002.11-6.79-0.06%59550
SingaporeStraits Times2141.0915.840.75%0
Hong KongHang Seng13918.779.80.07%137.03m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp892.3313.371.52%0