Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

OzRant: Sanity Rears Its Head (Briefly)...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Fan-splat it ain't, but it's good to see some of the froth being wrung out of the headline indices. Last week I mentioned the likelihood of a rise into the end of the year that could see the US market (as measured by the S&P500) reach 1300.

It goes against my better judgement of the US market fundamentals, and its economic imbalances, and sensible geopolitical analytics - all of which tell me that US companies are in deep shizola. However this week was always going to be one that resulted in a modest pullback - it is the depth of this week's hurtingness that will determine whether the lofty year-end target can be maintained (although the 'window of proof' actually extends for another eighteen trading sessions).

Still, as I said above, it's nice to see some semblance of rationality returning to the stock indices.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries- fell by 23.20 points (-0.55%), finishing at 4232.10 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4255.30 (at the open) and its low of 4227.4 (call it 4225-ish) was set at 1:05 p.m. Sydney time. from there is was a sideways waft with a very modest upwards bias for the rest of the afternoon.

Total volume traded on the ASX was a solid 1.04 billion units, 9.1% above its 10-day average (the 10-day average has been rising sharply of late, and sits at 951m shares.

Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 238 fell and 136 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.6:1, with 317.8 million shares traded in losers while 202.2 million shares changed hands in today's winners.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - fell by 22.20 points (-0.52%), finishing at 4277.90 points. So far for the week, the index has lost 42.3 points from Friday's close; that's not quite as large as I wanted (I was looking for this week to bring a 'mini fan-splat', you will recall from last week). As such, as far as I'm concerned the market can just bloody well go back and try again. I tire of its insolence - it's failing to do as it's told.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - fell by 8.40 points (-0.36%), finishing at 2301.30 points (let's chalk that in as '2300-ish'). Within the index members, there were 5 that rose, and 15 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 41.21 million shares, compared with volume in the losers totalling 59.74m units.

Bear in mind - when looking at the lists of rising and falling issues - that clicking on the stock code will bring up a little box that includes all recent ASX Announcements; from that, you ought to be able to glean if any non-private information moved the stock on a given day. If there was no release to the ASX, then according to ASX Listing Rules, nothing can possibly have happened that was relevant to the stock price... suuuure...

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$0.28 (0.74%) to $38.01 on volume of 2.39m shares;
  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.04 (0.68%) to $5.88 on volume of 4.48m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.08 on volume of 24.16m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.03 (0.19%) to $15.69 on volume of 3.68m shares; and
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.01 (0.15%) to $6.72 on volume of 6.5m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.22 (3.03%) to $7.05 on volume of 4.36m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.49 (1.67%) to $28.80 on volume of 3.87m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.11 (1.16%) to $9.34 on volume of 7.22m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$0.48 (1.05%) to $45.06 on volume of 1.71m shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.15 (0.82%) to $18.11 on volume of 10.89m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 6.40 points (-0.27%), finishing at 2380.10 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Primelife Corporation (PLF), +$0.13 (16.13%) to $0.90 on volume of 7.6m shares;
  • Emperor Mines (EMP), +$0.02 (7.41%) to $0.29 on volume of 84,000 shares; and
  • Resolute Mining (RSG), +$0.06 (5.8%) to $1.10 on volume of 93,000 shares; and
  • Austral Coal (AUO), +$0.07 (4.81%) to $1.42 on volume of 10,000 shares; and
  • AAV (AVV), +$0.06 (4.8%) to $1.31 on volume of 403,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Oceana Gold (OGD), -$0.05 (7.94%) to $0.58 on volume of 930,000 shares;
  • Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.12 (5.91%) to $1.91 on volume of 852,000 shares; and
  • Agenix (AGX), -$0.02 (4.69%) to $0.31 on volume of 224,000 shares; and
  • Lion Selection Group (LSG), -$0.09 (4.65%) to $1.85 on volume of 84,000 shares; and
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), -$0.33 (4.62%) to $6.82 on volume of 1.23m shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4232.1-23.2-0.55%620.44m
XTLS&P/ASX 202301.3-8.4-0.36%100.95m
XFLS&P/ASX 504221-18.1-0.43%215.14m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003475.4-18.9-0.54%369.99m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004277.9-22.2-0.52%481.62m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004269.7-22.2-0.52%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504126-50.5-1.21%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2380.1-6.4-0.27%201.2m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

Advancing Volume41.21m100.18m146.74m202.276.59422.3
Declining Volume59.74m249.65m279.32m317.875.21447.5

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Telecommunications which gained 0.23% to 1803.90 points. Of course in a 2-stock sector with one company roughly ten times as big as the other, usually a move in XTJ means a move in Telstra Today was no different to the usual - Telstra was driving the bus.

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.08 on volume of 24.16m shares; compared with
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.04 (0.71%) to $5.61 on volume of 1.78m shares.
Telecommunications was actually the only sector that managed a gain for the session - which saves me the hassle of listing the 'winner' in the other 'least-falling' sectors.

The worst-performed sector today was Energy which lost 2.18% to 9246.90 points - looks like everyone is banking on that pullback in Crude that I mentioned as a possibility last week; as I said this morning, though - there's not enough nuffie-enthusiasm for oil just yet (although journalists are talking about oil enough to encourage a contrarian short punt after the oil stocks numbers tonight). Today the oil stocks sector was dragged lower by

  • Caltex Australia (CTX), -$1.19 (7.38%) to $14.94 on volume of 2.76m shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.21 (2.75%) to $7.43 on volume of 3.07m shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.06 (2.72%) to $1.97 on volume of 1.46m shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), -$0.07 (2.46%) to $2.78 on volume of 10.36m shares; and
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.05 (2.25%) to $1.96 on volume of 843,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Utilities which lost 1.81% to 4906.20 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.11 (4.23%) to $2.49 on volume of 5.44m shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), -$0.22 (2.21%) to $9.75 on volume of 1.14m shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.31 (2.19%) to $13.85 on volume of 2.42m shares;
  • Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.05 (1.14%) to $4.35 on volume of 156,000 shares; and
  • Pacific Hydro (PHY), -$0.00 (0%) to $5.00 on volume of 3.07m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5174.7-3-0.06%77.06m
XSJConsumer Staples5600.3-24.7-0.44%34.2m
XPJProperty Trusts1826.6-11.1-0.6%106.25m
XIJInformation Technology401.7-5.5-1.35%6.41m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2257.6-35.4-1.54%50.27m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
SGTSingapore Telecommunications2.060.020.98%26.18m
TLSTelstra Corporation5.080.020.4%24.16m
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.31-0.01-3.13%19.02m
PMNPromina Group4.95-0.01-0.2%14.03m
CGFChallenger Financial Services Group3.17-0.03-0.94%12.91m
QANQantas Airways3.310.010.3%12.4m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
PLFPrimelife Corporation0.900.1316.13%7.6m
TIRTitan Resources0.0580.0059.43%4.63m
RSGResolute Mining1.100.065.8%93262

All Ords Percentage Decliners
ETWEvans & Tate0.60-0.1-13.67%1.36m
OGDOceana Gold0.58-0.05-7.94%930339
UNIUnilife Medical Solutions0.60-0.05-7.69%161552
CTXCaltex Australia14.94-1.19-7.38%2.76m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225opened pretty weak, dipping to 11445.43 ion the first half hour of trade. From there the Tokyo market rose over 100 points from its low, posting a high of 11560.6 points with five minutes left in the session (although the 100-point gain happened in just 90 minutes of actual trade, but the lunch break added a further 90 minutes  of  elapsed time. On a close-to-close basis, the Nikkei rose 58.54 points (0.51%) to close at 11547.28 points.

Looking at an intraday chart of the Kiwi Market (and ignoring the axes) you would think it was all over the shop. Then you notice the axes... and you see that the entire trading range for the day was under 7.5 points. Now don't get me wrong - I knew that New Zealand had a tendency to be boring, but this is ridiculous... they might as well have pulled the plug on the market and let the session die with dignity. As it is, the headline index lost just 1.51 points (-0.05%) to finish at 3177.648 points. The index dipped in the first half-hour, setting its low at 3171.768 points, and took two hours from there to crawl the 7.5 points to the high at 3179.252.

A total of 19 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 3.9million units. Decliners numbered 15, and total volume traded in losers was 15.8million shares. Individual stocks that were a but suck included...

  • Pumpkin Patch (PPL), -NZ$0.10 (3.57%) to NZ$2.70 on volume of 19,000 shares;
  • Tower Limited (TWR), -NZ$0.06 (2.8%) to NZ$2.08 on volume of 412,000 shares;
  • Feltex Carpets (FTX), -NZ$0.01 (2.27%) to NZ$0.43 on volume of 6.03m shares;
  • Skellmax Industries (SKX), -NZ$0.02 (1.6%) to NZ$1.23 on volume of 119,000 shares; and
  • Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), -NZ$0.03 (1.5%) to NZ$1.97 on volume of 4.32m shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Sengindex finally broker through the 14000 level, and when it did so it exploded through it.  the index opened at 13995.64 points, but within a few seconds it was through 14000 points. It pulled back at the end of the first 20 minutes to retest 14000, but when it held it was off to the races. By the lunchtime gong the index was up 133.96 points (0.96%) at 14113.31 points, having hit a high of 14121.48 just ten minutes before the lunch break started.

Within the Hang Seng, 28 index components rose, and none fell (5 stocks were unchanged). Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 179.2million units, and total volume traded in losers was, or course, zero. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • Li & Fung (0494), +HK$0.60 (4%) to HK$15.60 on volume of 7.97m shares;
  • Lenovo Group (0992), +HK$0.08 (3.26%) to HK$2.38 on volume of 21.25m shares;
  • China Unicom (0762), +HK$0.15 (2.36%) to HK$6.50 on volume of 13.91m shares;
  • China Mobile (0941), +HK$0.65 (2.25%) to HK$29.50 on volume of 22.36m shares;
  • China Merchant Holdings (0144), +HK$0.30 (2.04%) to HK$15.00 on volume of 4.43m shares; and
  • CKI Holdings (1038), +HK$0.45 (1.91%) to HK$24.00 on volume of 1.06m shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503177.684-1.51-0.05%24.86m
JapanNikkei 22511547.2858.540.51%0
SingaporeStraits Times2204.257.610.35%0
Hong KongHang Seng14113.31133.960.96%358.17m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp903.67.290.81%0