OzRant: Sometimes, Bad is Bad...

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Sometimes you have to marvel at the ability of markets to spin themselves silly. Today the spin was more ludicrous than a performance by Isidora Duncan, the "doyeness" of twirling fartknockers. Nous sommes tous Americains, it would appear... a slowing economy is now good news. That's what you get when you allow governments to educate the kiddies... a bunch of absolute morons who are prepared to slavishly follow US trends, whereby down is up, tyranny is freedom, killing foreign children is 'spreading democracy', and any statistic is good for the markets.

Today's spinfest involved the rather contorted logic that if the economy is slowing (and is actually only 'expanding' thanks to unsold stock on shelves), the RBA will not hike interest rates. People then declare that to be positive for stocks - and they do it with a straight face.

Seems the economics has changed since I was a student; it used to be that making shit that you couldn't sell was BAD for business.

Still, let's put on record that GDP growth was 0.7%, below expectations of 0.9%. Let's also put on record that any number less than 2% is noise. It has to be said that our economy is in better shape than the US, but never let anyone tell you that our investors are smarter than their Yanqui counterparts.

That said, I shouldn't be too harsh - it's largely the fault of professional mismanagers, and they are forever doing stupid things. Today should be seen as the circling of the wagons; if the circling gets too much tighter, the ASX20 is going to disappear up its own bumhole.

Look at the advance-decline statistics for each degree of market concentration from the ASX20 down through to the entire market... what you see is that the further you get from the top 20, the more negative the advance-decline statistics become. 75% of the top 20 rose, 60% of the top 200 rose, ... whereas for the broader indices (the All Ords, the Small Ordinaries and the overall market) less than half the stocks in the indices managed a gain.

In short, today was a 'flight to market cap', which is not the same as a 'flight to safety'. Soon I will start sticking in some measures of risk-tolerance, I think (for example, the average beta of the advancers) - but it'll take a little while to get the database calls done properly. Today was a flight from beta, even within the ASX20.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 33.30 points (0.82%), finishing at 4103.70 points. The index timed its takeoff to coincide with the release of the GDP data at 11 a.m.; prior to that there had been a lovely shorting opportunity after an initial opening squirt. At 11:05 the data was out, and the market  was at what turned out to be its session low (4061.4 points)... then the spin started. From there the day was an almost monotonic move upwards, hitting the intraday high of 4105.50 just over 10 minutes before the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was decent for the first time in two weeks, at 970 million units, 19.2% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 206 rose while 152 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of just under 2:1, with 361.74 million shares traded in gainers while 183.49 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 41.40 points (1.01%), finishing at 4147.80 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 23.40 points (1.05%), finishing at 2256.30 points. Within the index members, there were 15 that rose, and 5 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 91.25 while volume in the losers totalled 35.74m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.66 (2.67%) to $25.41 on volume of 2.39m shares;
• Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.48 (2.24%) to $21.93 on volume of 10.12m shares;
• Alumina (AWC), +$0.12 (2.18%) to $5.63 on volume of 3.83m shares;
• Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. (CBA), +$0.74 (2%) to $37.79 on volume of 3.03m shares; and
• Amcor (AMC), +$0.13 (1.92%) to $6.91 on volume of 2.64m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

• News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.32 (1.47%) to $21.38 on volume of 1.88m shares;
• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.22 (1.12%) to $19.42 on volume of 13.04m shares;
• News Corporation (NWS), -$0.22 (0.99%) to $22.10 on volume of 2.63m shares;
• AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.04 (0.61%) to $6.56 on volume of 16.35m shares; and
• St George Bank (SGB), -$0.05 (0.19%) to $26.00 on volume of 1.83m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 16.50 points (0.73%), finishing at 2267.30 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

• Agenix (AGX), +$0.03 (8.06%) to $0.34 on volume of 104,000 shares;
• FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.20 (7.22%) to $2.97 on volume of 173,000 shares;
• Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.45 (7.09%) to $6.80 on volume of 910,000 shares;
• Perilya (PEM), +$0.05 (6.85%) to $0.78 on volume of 668,000 shares; and
• Cellestis (CST), +$0.17 (5.8%) to $3.10 on volume of 132,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

• Progen Industries (PGL), -$0.49 (18.92%) to $2.10 on volume of 208,000 shares;
• Globe International (GLB), -$0.06 (12.94%) to $0.37 on volume of 695,000 shares; and
• Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.00 (6.25%) to $0.02 on volume of 16.78m shares;
• Bendigo Mining (BDG), -$0.05 (5.1%) to $0.93 on volume of 716,000 shares; and
• A.B.C. Learning Centres (ABS), -$0.25 (4.72%) to $5.05 on volume of 2.14m shares.

For today's price-sensitive ASX announcements, click this link.

Index Changes
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XAO	All Ordinaries	4103.7	33.3	0.82%	669.11m
XTL	S&P/ASX 20	2256.3	23.4	1.05%	126.98m
XFL	S&P/ASX 50	4103.8	42.1	1.04%	291.4m
XTO	S&P/ASX 100	3374.9	33.7	1.01%	490.49m
XJO	S&P/ASX 200	4147.8	41.4	1.01%	584.64m
XKO	S&P/ASX 300	4139.1	40.3	0.98%	0
XMD	S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50	3979	33.3	0.84%	0
XSO	S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries	2267.3	16.5	0.73%	220.24m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
	XAO	XJO	XSO	ASX20	Market
Advances	206	126	90	15	435
Declines	152	48	66	5	454
Advancing Volume	361.74m	343.54m	115.82m	91.25	516.99
Declining Volume	183.49m	159.57m	55.89m	35.74	312.54

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Energy which gained 2.07% to 8538.10 points - the sustained increase in oil prices and their ability to hold above $50 have reinvigorated the sector. The sector was helped by

• Oil Search (OSH), +$0.08 (3.33%) to $2.48 on volume of 6.77m shares;
• Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.49 (3.25%) to $15.59 on volume of 3.68m shares;
• Santos (STO), +$0.28 (2.78%) to $10.36 on volume of 2.89m shares;
• Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.66 (2.67%) to $25.41 on volume of 2.39m shares; and
• Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.14 (1.99%) to $7.18 on volume of 523,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Materials which gained 1.36% to 6836.10 points, partly on government-touted declarations of likely prices-received increases for coal and steel exported to the region. The sector leaders were -

• Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.45 (7.09%) to $6.80 on volume of 910,000 shares;
• Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.31 (5.26%) to $6.20 on volume of 2.19m shares;
• Kingsgate Consolidated. (KCN), +$0.13 (4.78%) to $2.85 on volume of 435,000 shares;
• Newcrest Mining (NCM), +$0.55 (4.14%) to $13.85 on volume of 4.16m shares; and
• Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.12 (4.12%) to $3.03 on volume of 3.35m shares.

The bronze today went to Property Trusts which gained 1.26% to 1766.90 points. Boring. Sure, they might benefit from lower hurdles (i.e., bond yields). The sector was led by a 'bouncer' - MXG cratered yesterday, you will recall...

• Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.12 (4.69%) to $2.68 on volume of 42.34m shares;
• Thakral Holdings Group (THG), +$0.03 (3.21%) to $0.81 on volume of 432,000 shares;
• General Property Trust (GPT), +$0.08 (2.27%) to $3.61 on volume of 13.76m shares;
• CFS Gandel Retail Trust (GAN), +$0.03 (1.81%) to $1.69 on volume of 2.29m shares; and
• Galileo Shopping America Trust (GSA), +$0.02 (1.65%) to $1.23 on volume of 2.87m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Information Technology which lost 1.21% to 374.70 points. Remember what I said about flight from beta? Well, InfoTech is about the "beta-est" sector in the entire market. Today the sector was dragged lower by

• Computershare (CPU), -$0.15 (2.54%) to $5.75 on volume of 2.85m shares;
• MYOB (MYO), -$0.02 (1.37%) to $1.08 on volume of 247,000 shares;
• Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.00 (0%) to $0.54 on volume of 249,000 shares;
• Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.01 (0.48%) to $1.04 on volume of 250,000 shares; and
• Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.04 (1.37%) to $2.97 on volume of 247,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.21% to 2194.10 points. That's not so much 'beta aversion' as it is an acceptance that consumers are already retrenching, and are so debt-laden that they are unlikely to fork out massive coin for geegaws and gimcracks. The sector was pulled down by

• Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.05 (3.31%) to $1.46 on volume of 830,000 shares;
• G.U.D. Holdings (GUD), -$0.21 (3.09%) to $6.59 on volume of 244,000 shares; and
• Village Roadshow (VRLPA), -$0.06 (2.99%) to $1.95 on volume of 13,000 shares;
• APN News & Media (APN), -$0.11 (2.16%) to $4.99 on volume of 5.53m shares; and
• Fleetwood Corporation (FWD), -$0.10 (1.59%) to $6.19 on volume of 153,000 shares.

Sector Indices
Code	GICS Sector	Close	+/-	%	Volume
XEJ	Energy	8538.1	173	2.07%	27.02m
XMJ	Materials	6836.1	91.6	1.36%	135.08m
XPJ	Property Trusts	1766.9	22	1.26%	153.96m
XNJ	Industrials	5000.7	58.7	1.19%	67.69m
XSJ	Consumer Staples	5583.6	63.3	1.15%	38.87m
XFJ	Financials	5014.7	52.9	1.07%	236.41m
XXJ	ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts	5127	51.4	1.01%	87.42m
XUJ	Utilities	4924	41.7	0.85%	7.97m
XTJ	Telecommunications	1796.5	11.2	0.63%	24.85m
XHJ	Healthcare	4797.5	2.7	0.06%	38.11m
XDJ	Consumer Discretionary	2194.1	-4.6	-0.21%	40.15m
XIJ	Information Technology	374.7	-4.6	-1.21%	4.95m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
MXG	Multiplex Group	2.68	0.12	4.69%	42.34m
WMR	WMC Resources	7.8	0.01	0.13%	41.27m
BKA	Buka Minerals	0.22	0.03	12.82%	34.72m
TLS	Telstra Corporation.	5.07	0.05	1%	23.25m
VCR	Ventracor	1.53	0.04	2.35%	21.25m
MAP	Macquarie Airports	3.65	-0.01	-0.27%	18.4m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
LOK	Looksmart	0.93	0.1	12.12%	94675
FKP	FKP Property Group	2.97	0.2	7.22%	172789
EXL	Excel Coal	6.8	0.45	7.09%	909982
PEM	Perilya	0.78	0.05	6.85%	667552
SRL	Straits Resources	1.79	0.11	6.23%	223060

All Ords Percentage Decliners
Code	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
PGL	Progen Industries.	2.1	-0.49	-18.92%	207985
PLT	Polartechnics	0.13	-0.02	-13.33%	400537
GLB	Globe International	0.37	-0.06	-12.94%	695197
SRI	Sipa Resources	0.061	-0.005	-7.58%	1.04m
ABI	Ambri	0.14	-0.01	-6.67%	615055

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 53.08 points (0.47%) to close at 11329.67 points after opening weak. The index opened at its low (11220.55) and was still under 11300 at lunchtime. The afternoon saw three or four attempts at 11300, until a final burst (in the last 10 minutes) catapulted the index to a session high (11329.67 points) at the close.

The Kiwi Market declined 38.29 points (-1.26%) to finish back under 3000 at 2996.06 points. The index hit a high of 3034.354 in the seconds after the open, and fell to its session low of 2992.851 points at 11 a.m.; from there the index went sideways for pretty much the rest of the session, with several attempts to get back above 3000 (none of which were successful).

A total of 8 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 3.5million units. Decliners numbered 32, and total volume traded in losers was 40.6million shares. Individual stocks performed poorly included...

• Kiwi Income Property Trust (KIP), -NZ$0.08 (6.78%) to NZ$1.10 on volume of 20.35m shares;
• Property Forest Industries (PFI), -NZ$0.04 (3.67%) to NZ$1.05 on volume of 143,000 shares;
• Pumpkin Patch (PPL), -NZ$0.10 (3.64%) to NZ$2.65 on volume of 120,000 shares;
• Independent Newspapers (INL), -NZ$0.22 (3.53%) to NZ$6.01 on volume of 496,000 shares; and
• Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), -NZ$0.06 (3.35%) to NZ$1.73 on volume of 1.34m shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined a weensy 4.84 points (-0.03%) by lunchtime. The index hit a high of 13895.33 just after 11 a.m. Hong Kong time, after opening at its low thus far (13817.27 points) and wandering in a relatively tight range for most of the morning.

Within the Hang Seng, 8 index components rose, while 17 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 46.8 million units, and total volume traded in losers was 69.5 million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the decline included...

• Cosco Pacific (1199), -HK$0.60 (3.97%) to HK$14.50 on volume of 11.07m shares;
• Li & Fung (0494), -HK$0.30 (2.01%) to HK$14.60 on volume of 2.53m shares;
• Yue Yuen Ind (0551), -HK$0.45 (1.95%) to HK$22.65 on volume of 1.06m shares;
• CNOOC (0883), -HK$0.08 (1.74%) to HK$4.23 on volume of 14.48m shares;
• Wharf Holdings (0004), -HK$0.40 (1.57%) to HK$25.05 on volume of 2.21m shares; and
• Hang Lung Ppt (0101), -HK$0.15 (1.33%) to HK$11.15 on volume of 3.21m shares.

Regional Indices
Country	Name	Close	+/-	%	Volume
New Zealand	NZSE50	2996.06	-38.29	-1.26%	47.35m
Japan	Nikkei 225	11329.67	53.08	0.47%	0
Korea	KOSPI	969.51	-0.7	-0.07%	252134
Singapore	Straits Times	2172.81	11.04	0.51%	0
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	13862.23	-4.84	-0.03%	141.17m
Malaysia	KLSE Comp	862.7	1.97	0.23%	0