Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

OzRant: There's That Bounce I Ordered...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

When I ordered a bounce (I declared that it should be so on Friday afternoon), I expected the thing to arrive on time (it was supposed to be delivered yesterday). The market is getting a little cheeky, giving us sod-all bounce yesterday and then going off like a rocket in the first hour today. Still, better late than never.

That said, the medium-term outlook continues to rest on a knife edge (or, to put it more mathematically, on an unstable manifold); the near future will be determined by the US market.

You might be tempted to say "Yes, GT... and the sky is blue, unless it's grey. Tell us something interesting, you pillock."

I would respond that you should examine a chart of the ASX200, and notice that while the US main indices has gone 'net nowhere' since the May 1999, the ASX200 has most vehemently not done likewise. Sure, the Dow went up and come back down, during which time the Australian market similarly had swings and roundabouts. However on net, the Dow went nowhere but the XJO added 50% (as of two weeks ago) excluding dividends.

Speaking of dividends, the yield on the ASX200 is now below 2% - and has been for several months. I don't know about you, but paying $1 for a 2c dividend (franked, on average, 76%) strikes me as idiotic. You get better cash extraction from a kiddie's Dollar-mite account (do they still have those?).

What I meant by the near future relying on the US markets, is that the next several months will depend critically on whether the US market can 'accept' the next tightening by the Fed. If markets get jittery in the next few sessions, it might bring the entire house of cards back into bear-land.

I can't say that I would mind that - it would conform to my better judgement, and it's much easier to make money on the short side anyhow. The key is that Dow 10250 level (for the next week). Two daily closes below that level, and the risk is that the entire thing cracks along the length of its spine.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 30.80 points (0.73%), finishing at 4222.00 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4224.90 a minute or so before the close, and its low at 4191.1 was registered at the opening buzzer.

Total volume traded on the ASX was just under 990 million units, 1.8% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 225 rose while 133 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.9:1, with 351.95million shares traded in gainers while 119.40million shares traded in the day's losers.

Of course the fact that 'professional' mis-managers will want their windows dressed extra special nice this year. There are millions of working schlubs who were previously forced by law into 'Industry Super' schemes - that law changes July 1st, and as such they are now ripe for the advertising-driven picking.

That's why there's suddenly raft of 'low fee versus high fee' ads on the telly - the Industry Super funds are trying to pre-empt the upcoming ad blitz by the managed fund sharks from Colonic Last State, Banker's DisTrust and the rest of the vermin whose entire life depends on clipping someone else's ticket.

So yes - the end of the financial year is certainly adding to the "dress the windows" behaviour. That's why the ASX20 was up more than the ASX100, and so on.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 39.60 points (0.94%), finishing at 4270.80 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 26.20 points (1.15%), finishing at 2301.40 points. Within the index members, there were 16 that rose, and 4 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 80.93 while volume in the losers totalled 13.97m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.45 (2.55%) to $18.08 on volume of 14.51m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.81 (2.05%) to $40.31 on volume of 460,000 shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.38 (1.96%) to $19.73 on volume of 6.57m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.33 (1.9%) to $17.70 on volume of 4.05m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.72 (1.63%) to $44.94 on volume of 1.62m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.30 (1.38%) to $21.38 on volume of 2.23m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.30 (1.32%) to $22.38 on volume of 3.11m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.07 (1.02%) to $6.78 on volume of 6.53m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.29 (0.98%) to $29.25 on volume of 2.1m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index rose by 16.80 points (0.72%), finishing at 2362.00 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Keycorp (KYC), +$0.30 (17.51%) to $1.98 on volume of 299,000 shares;
  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), +$0.05 (13.43%) to $0.38 on volume of 14.91m shares;
  • Sydney Gas Ltd (SGL), +$0.06 (11.22%) to $0.55 on volume of 4.49m shares;
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), +$0.02 (6.82%) to $0.24 on volume of 1.1m shares; and
  • Metabolic Pharmaceuticals (MBP), +$0.03 (5.17%) to $0.61 on volume of 1.04m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Emperor Mines (EMP), -$0.03 (10%) to $0.23 on volume of 165,000 shares;
  • Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.06 (5.24%) to $1.00 on volume of 254,000 shares; and
  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.005 (4.76%) to $0.10 on volume of 921,000 shares; and
  • Austral Coal (AUO), -$0.06 (4.07%) to $1.30 on volume of 9,000 shares; and
  • Novogen (NRT), -$0.17 (3.46%) to $4.74 on volume of 241,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries422230.80.73%607.37m
XTLS&P/ASX 202301.426.21.15%94.9m
XFLS&P/ASX 504220.6400.96%234.7m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003471.132.60.95%356.14m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004270.839.60.94%445.92m
XKOS&P/ASX 300426239.10.93%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50409335.70.88%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries236216.80.72%176.23m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

Advancing Volume80.93m249.44m289.04m351.9584.71553.41
Declining Volume13.97m65.23m90.09m119.440.14243.77

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Healthcare which gained 2.52% to 5280.80 points. The sector was helped by

  • CSL (CSL), +$1.95 (5.97%) to $34.59 on volume of 1.04m shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.12 (2.66%) to $4.63 on volume of 1.05m shares; and
  • Cochlear (COH), +$0.99 (2.6%) to $39.00 on volume of 339,000 shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.31 (2.48%) to $12.83 on volume of 540,000 shares; and
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.19 (2.4%) to $8.10 on volume of 461,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Materials which gained 1.53% to 7278.10 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Kimberley Diamond Company (KIM), +$0.05 (4.35%) to $1.08 on volume of 1.3m shares;
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.26 (3.86%) to $7.00 on volume of 560,000 shares; and
  • Boral (BLD), +$0.20 (3.21%) to $6.44 on volume of 1.8m shares; and
  • Oxiana (OXR), +$0.03 (2.81%) to $0.92 on volume of 6.06m shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.45 (2.55%) to $18.08 on volume of 14.51m shares.

The bronze today went to Industrials which gained 1.39% to 5186.50 points. The sector was led by

  • Leighton Holdings (LEI), +$0.39 (3.55%) to $11.38 on volume of 191,000 shares;
  • Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG), +$0.11 (2.72%) to $4.15 on volume of 12.18m shares; and
  • Transurban Group (TCL), +$0.15 (2.07%) to $7.39 on volume of 2.85m shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.81 (2.05%) to $40.31 on volume of 460,000 shares; and
  • Spotless Group (SPT), +$0.10 (1.9%) to $5.35 on volume of 176,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Energy which lost 0.65% to 9499.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Santos (STO), -$0.27 (2.33%) to $11.34 on volume of 2.72m shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), -$0.04 (1.76%) to $2.23 on volume of 2.13m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.03 (1.22%) to $2.42 on volume of 2.09m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.29 (0.98%) to $29.25 on volume of 2.1m shares; and
  • Oil Search (OSH), unchanged $3.01 on volume of 13.4m shares (OK, so OSH didn't help drag the index).

Just in front of last place on the sector table was Utilities which lost 0.25% to 4943.40 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.13 (3.08%) to $4.09 on volume of 110,000 shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), -$0.11 (1.11%) to $9.80 on volume of 975,000 shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.02 (0.54%) to $3.68 on volume of 126,000 shares; and
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.01 (0.4%) to $2.52 on volume of 365,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XSJConsumer Staples5615.852.70.95%38.45m
XPJProperty Trusts1789.316.30.92%89.83m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5174.743.90.86%95.11m
XIJInformation Technology388.22.70.7%9.9m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2232.35.40.24%34.69m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
PMNPromina Group4.750.081.71%43.67m
CUECue Energy Resources0.400.025.26%17.92m
SGTSingapore Telecommunications2.10.010.48%16.09m
TLSTelstra Corporation5.080.010.2%14.92m
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.380.0513.43%14.91m
BHPBHP Billiton18.080.452.55%14.51m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.380.0513.43%14.91m
SGLSydney Gas Ltd0.5450.05511.22%4.49m
DRADragon Mining0.2350.0156.82%1.1m

All Ords Percentage Decliners
AJLAJ Lucas Group1.35-0.17-10.89%364325
IHGIntellect Holdings0.021-0.002-8.7%3.07m
TAWTawana Resources0.68-0.04-5.56%76300
RSGResolute Mining0.995-0.055-5.24%253501
OECOrbital Corporation0.1-0.005-4.76%920533

Elsewhere in the Region...

Japan's Nikkei 225rose 99.55 points (0.87%) to close at 11513.83 points. The index dipped to 11413.84 points in the first ten minutes, during a generally weak opening hour. After 10:30 everything went "whooshka", and from there the Nikkei kept making higher highs for the entire session, eventually hitting a high of 11519.48 a few minutes before the close.

The Kiwi Market advanced 27.20 points (0.86%) to 3191.192 points. It was almost another one of those Kiwi "open to close' rallies that have been such fun to watch recently, but in fact the Kiwi market ran out of steam at about 1 p.m. and went nowhere from that point onward. The index hit a high of 3197.187 right at 1 p.m., after opening at its low( 3163.989 points). In fact, the overwhelming bulk of the day's move happened in the first 35 minutes - at that stage of the session the NZSE was already above 3180.

A total of 22 stocks within the NZSE50 rose, with volume in advancers totalling 31.5million units. Decliners numbered 17, and total volume traded in losers was 3.5million shares. Individual stocks that dud well included...

  • Feltex Carpets (FTX), +NZ$0.10 (19.61%) to NZ$0.61 on volume of 2.87m shares;
  • Freightways Limited (FRE), +NZ$0.11 (3.67%) to NZ$3.11 on volume of 75,000 shares;
  • Carter Holt Harvey (CAH), +NZ$0.08 (3.62%) to NZ$2.29 on volume of 17.26m shares;
  • Cavalier Corporation (CAV), +NZ$0.13 (3.49%) to NZ$3.85 on volume of 53,000 shares;
  • Contact Energy (CEN), +NZ$0.15 (1.96%) to NZ$7.80 on volume of 1.19m shares; and
  • Kiwi Income Property (KIP), +NZ$0.02 (1.89%) to NZ$1.08 on volume of 3.92m shares.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index failed to ignite like the rest of its regional chums, advancing a mere 8.50 points (0.06%) to 14184.54 at lunchtime.

Everything started out looking as groovy as the rest of the region, with a 40-point zoom upwards in the first 40 minutes of trade. The index hit a high of 14245.38 during this time, but thereafter it fell over 70 points in less than 25 minutes, to set its session low (14174.79points) at just before 11:05 HK time.

Within the Hang Seng, 13 index components rose, while 12 stocks fell. Volume in the gainers in Hong Kong's big-cap index totalled 258.2million units, and total volume traded in losers was 55.2million shares. Individual stocks that contributed to the advance included...

  • CNOOC (0883), +HK$0.25 (5.81%) to HK$4.55 on volume of 236.49m shares;
  • China Merchant Holdings (0144), +HK$0.20 (1.32%) to HK$15.30 on volume of 2.22m shares;
  • Lenovo Group (0992), +HK$0.03 (1.1%) to HK$2.30 on volume of 1.56m shares;
  • Wharf Holdings (0004), +HK$0.20 (0.77%) to HK$26.30 on volume of 2.15m shares;
  • Esprit Holdings (0330), +HK$0.25 (0.46%) to HK$55.00 on volume of 2.14m shares; and
  • China Resources (0291), +HK$0.05 (0.42%) to HK$11.85 on volume of 1.58m shares.
Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503191.19227.20.86%38.33m
JapanNikkei 22511513.8399.550.87%0
SingaporeStraits Times2204.05-2.66-0.12%0
Hong KongHang Seng14184.548.50.06%329.8m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp894.923.690.41%0