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So Retail Sales stank (-0.5% compared with expectations for -0.2%; excluding cars, -0.2% compared with consensus of +0.2%). So the Producer Price Index (-0.6 compared with consensus of -0.2; 0.1% versus 0.2% excluding food and energy) shows that producer margins are under more pressure than the sphincter of an Abu Ghraib detainee at the hands of a member of the 'Forces of Freedom®'.
In a world where even the
Governor of Australia's Reserve Bank feels compelled to talk about the
constant ex
post facto revisions to
statistical data, perhaps the financial markets have taken it upon
themselves to ignore economic statistics for the time being. Far more
likely is that fact that Brownstain and his band of corrupt
bureaucratic central planners saw the data, thought "Who fialed to
massage these" and sent a load of repurchase dough to the major banks,
the better to hold up the market.
Federal Reserve Open Market Operations
The Fed's Open Market Operations desk performed 1 repurchase operation - a $7billion, overnight repurchase with $6.955billion in T-backed collateral. The reourchase was settleds almost 7 basis points above Fed Funds, which made it tought to use much to pump-prime the market; if there's no 'guaranteed carry', repo funds used in any goosing operation are not underwritten by a guaranteed gain on the rest of the repo tranche.
Today there was only the
faintest of ripples once the repo funds hit the market - later than
usual (when the repo operation is undertaken at 9:45 rather than 9:30,
it simply takes a bit longer to get the money to the floor).
Major US Indices
Overall, the market held up well in the face of less-than-impressive retail sales data. The huge repo helped, but the reaction in the futures market after the data was released - before the cash market opened - was not particularly violent.
Once the repo funds kicked in, the Dow was able to hold within a 20-point range for about three hours, until a surge at 1:30 p.m. took the index from under 10540 to its session high at 10586.7 in less than half an hour (the index opened at its session low). After this huge push, no short-covering was forthcoming - in fact, quite the opposite; intraday volume accelerated as the selling commenced.
By the close, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average had
managed to retain only 25.01 points (0.24%) of the intraday gain of 79
points, closing out the day at 10547.57 points.
Within the blue-chip index, 20 stocks rose, the biggest gainers being General Motors (GM, +4.12% to $35.87) and Wal Mart (WMT, +2.90% to $49.68), which accounted for 22 Dow points between them. Losers in the Dow numbered 10 and were led by Boeing (BA, -2.63% to $62.93) and Altria Group (MO, -2.01% to $66.95), with these two stocks contributing -24 Dow points worth of downward pressure on the index. Volume traded was tilted in favour of the gainers by 175.3m shares to 107.5m.
The broader S&P500 rose 3.09 points (0.26%), closing at 1203.91. Within the index, gainers numbered 315, while 177 S&P500 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.2:1 in favour of the winners with 832.10 million units traded in the winners as compared with 690.74 million traded in the losers .
Over at Times Square, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.08 points (0%), to close at 2069.04, while larger-cap technology issues fared worse with the Nasdaq100 losing 4.71 points (0.31%), to end at 1524.42 points. Within the tech benchmark, gainers numbered 48, while 49 Nasdaq100 stocks fell for the day. Volume was tilted 1.9:1 in favour of the losers with 370.45 million traded in the losers compared to 196.83 million in the winners .
NYSE Volume was pretty solid, with 1.7 billion shares changing hands, while Nasdaq Volume was barely average, with 1.44 billion shares traded.
| Major Market Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10547.57 | 25.01 | 0.24% |
| S&P500 | 1203.91 | 3.09 | 0.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2069.04 | 0.08 | 0% |
| Nasdaq100 | 1524.42 | -4.71 | -0.31% |
| NYSE Volume | 1.7bn | - | - |
| Nasdaq Volume | 1.44bn | - | - |
Bellwethers
My 9-stock "bellwethers" group rose by an average of 0.10%
- General Electric (GE) -$0.14 (0.38%) to $36.41;
- Citigroup (C) -$0.19 (0.4%) to $47.41;
- Wal Mart (WMT) +$1.40 (2.9%) to $49.68;
- I.B.M. (IBM) -$0.16 (0.21%) to $74.89;
- Intel (INTC) -$0.30 (1.11%) to $26.70;
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) -$0.12 (0.62%) to $19.18;
- eBay (EBAY) +$0.08 (0.22%) to $37.09;
- Fannie Mae (FNM) +$0.23 (0.4%) to $58.36; and
- Freddie Mac (FRE) +$0.07 (0.11%) to $64.86.
Market Breadth & Internals
NYSE advancing Issues exceeded decliners by 2079 to 1187 for a single-day A/D reading of 892; Nasdaq gainers trumped losers by 1762 to 1258. The 10-day moving average of the A/D line rose to 403.0 on the NYSE, while the 10dma of the Nasdaq A/D rose to 124.4.
NYSE advancing volume exceeded volume in decliners by 1076.5 to 597.5 million shares; On the Nasdaq declining volume exceeded volume in advancing issues by 763.9 to 637.9 million shares.
207 NYSE-listed stocks rose to new 52-week highs, and 29 posted fresh 52-week lows, while on the Nasdaq there were 109 stocks that hit new 52-week highs, and 30 which fell to fresh 52-week lows.
| Market Breadth Statistics | ||
| NYSE | Nasdaq | |
| Advancers | 2079 | 1762 |
| Decliners | 1187 | 1258 |
| Advancing Volume (m) | 1076.45 | 637.87 |
| Declining Volume (m) | 597.47 | 763.91 |
| New Highs | 207 | 109 |
| New Lows | 29 | 30 |
| Market Sentiment Statistics | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| CBOE Volatility Index | 11.79 | 0.14 | 1.2% |
| CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index | 15.75 | 0.01 | 0.06% |
| Equity Put-Call Ratio | 0.61 | 0 | 0% |
| 10-day PCR | 0.63 | -0.01 | -0.94% |
| SPX-VIX Ratio | 102.1 | 1.94 | 1.93% |
Bond Market Analysis
Bonds fell at the long end,
with the yield on the benchmark 30-year
Treasury bond rising 6.1 bps to
4.429%. The front-month 30-year Treasury future continues to mock my
failure to short it, finishing the session just above 116 (recall that
about 7 sessions ago it spiked to just under 120). Damn and blast.
The middle of the yield curve was broadly lower: five year yields rose to 3.874%, and ten-year yields rose to 4.127%.
| Treasury Yields | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| UST 13wk (yld) | 2.962 | 0 | 0% |
| UST 2Y (yld) | 3.68 | 0.025 | 0.68% |
| UST 5Y (yld) | 3.874 | 0.01 | 0.26% |
| UST 10Y (yld) | 4.127 | 0.041 | 1% |
| UST 30Y (yld) | 4.429 | 0.061 | 1.4% |
The Banks Index gained 0.04 points (0.04%), at 98.27; within the index,
- M&T Bank Corp (MTB) +$1.26 (1.22%) to $104.23;
- Golden West Financial (GDW) +$0.69 (1.14%) to $61.42;
- Comerica (CMA) +$0.59 (1.05%) to $56.57;
- National City Corp (NCC) +$0.30 (0.89%) to $33.99; and
- North Fork Bancorp (NFB) +$0.23 (0.85%) to $27.35.
The Broker-dealer Index gained 0.57 points (0.38%), closing at 148.82; the ticket clippers lined up as follows -
- Lehman Brothers (LEH) +$3.00 (3.22%) to $96.05;
- Bear Stearns (BSC) +$1.25 (1.26%) to $100.33;
- Jeffries Group (JEF) +$0.44 (1.22%) to $36.65;
- Raymond James (RJF) +$0.33 (1.21%) to $27.51; and
- A G Edwards (AGE) +$0.35 (0.84%) to $41.84.
The Philadelphia SOX (Semiconductor) index lost 4.67 points (1.09%), to 425.65
- Maxim Integrated (MXIM) -$1.03 (2.63%) to $38.16;
- Linear Technology (LLTC) -$0.74 (1.94%) to $37.44;
- Teradyne (TER) -$0.24 (1.81%) to $13.05;
- Marvell Tech Group (MRVL) -$0.62 (1.55%) to $39.48; and
- Xilinx (XLNX) -$0.40 (1.49%) to $26.48.
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold
fell by $1.90 (0.44%) to close at $427.40 per ounce. It is starting to
look moderately bullish for Gold, especially since the US Dollar is
very close to the upper bound of expectations for its (predictable at
the time) bounce. Any reversal back to the dominant USD trend (which is
down)
ought
to help help Gold.
Gold Bugs Index slid 3.37 points (1.73%), closing at 191.39
- Coeur d'Alene (CDE) -$0.14 (3.92%) to $3.43;
- Golden Star (GSS) -$0.12 (3.83%) to $3.01;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.18 (3.14%) to $5.56;
- Hecla Mining (HL) -$0.13 (2.81%) to $4.49; and
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$0.28 (2.25%) to $12.15.
Silver rose $0.03 (0.34%) to close at $7.29 per ounce. The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) lost 1.33 points (1.49%), closing at 88.02 points.
- Durban Rooderpoert Deep (DROOY) -$0.05 (4.67%) to $1.02;
- Kinross Gold (KGC) -$0.18 (3.14%) to $5.56;
- Agnico Eagle (AEM) -$0.28 (2.25%) to $12.15; and
- Harmony Gold (HMY) -$0.17 (2.15%) to $7.73.
| Precious Metals and Indices | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Gold | 427.40 | -1.90 | -0.44% |
| Silver | 7.29 | 0.03 | 0.34% |
| PHLX Gold and Silver Index | 88.02 | -1.33 | -1.49% |
| AMEX Gold BUGS Index | 191.39 | -3.37 | -1.73% |
Oil Market
Oil
lost ground after yesterday's big jump, shedding $0.62 per barrel,
closing at $55 per barrel. The wires were awash with crapola about how
OPEC will increase production again if prices continue to rise: that is
hogwash. What they will increase is production quotas,
but every OPEC nation is already treating those quotas with contempt
anyhow... OPEC has no spare capacity.
The Oil and Gas Index (XOI) posted a rise of 8.75 points (1.01%), ending the day at 874.16
- Amerada Hess (AHC) +$3.93 (3.8%) to $107.34;
- Sunoco (SUN) +$2.08 (1.89%) to $112.10; and
- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) +$0.91 (1.2%) to $76.73.
The Oil service stocks (OSX) Index rose 0.5 points (0.35%), at 143.77
- Global Industries (GLBL) +$0.22 (2.41%) to $9.33;
- Transocean (RIG) +$1.10 (2.05%) to $54.71; and
- Weatherford International (WFT) +$0.67 (1.18%) to $57.46.
| Energy Complex | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| Reuters CRB | 304.96 | 0.68 | 0.22% |
| Crude Oil Light Sweet | 55 | -0.62 | -1.11% |
| Heating Oil | 1.6368 | -0.03 | -1.58% |
| Natural Gas | 7.228 | -0.03 | -0.44% |
| Unleaded Gas | 1.5409 | -0.01 | -0.86% |
| AMEX Oil Index | 874.16 | 8.75 | 1.01% |
| Oil Service Index | 143.77 | 0.5 | 0.35% |
Currency Markets
| USD Exchange Rates | |||
| Index | Close | Gain(Loss) | % |
| US Dollar Index | 89.26 | 0.31 | 0.35% |
| Euro | 1.2032 | -0.0074 | -0.61% |
| Yen | 109.465 | -0.055 | -0.05% |
| Sterling | 1.806 | -0.0007 | -0.04% |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7632 | 0.002 | 0.26% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.2774 | 0.0073 | 0.57% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.7983 | 0.0014 | 0.18% |
