Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, July 22, 2005

OzRant: New High, New Issues....

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries - rose by 21.50 points (0.50%), finishing at 4324.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4325.10 and its low was 4294.7 - and divergences now abound. Anyone who examines a weekly chart of the XAO or XJO will notice that while %R is overbought, the CCI has made a lower low than it made on the week ending June 17th (the last time it hit an all-time high). Daily charts are showing an overbought %R and CCI>200, but no divergence.

Total volume traded on the ASX today was a very solid 1.05 billion units, 10.6% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 240 rose while 119 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a 'blow-off' margin of 3.9:1, with 507.36million shares traded in gainers while 130.63million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 - rose by 27.90 points (0.64%), finishing at 4371.10 points.

I've got no idea why everyone's in such a massive hurry to buy equities - the Chinese Yuan-rebasing move will hurt global bond markets more than anybody (except me) has bothered to think about at this stage. Sure, a sliding currency against your major bilateral trade-deficit partner might be considered a good thing in a world where the Robinson-Metzler-Bickerdycke criterion is favourable (which it isn't for the US), and a lower AUD would help boost offshore non-AUD earnings for exporters... but only if they're earned in the currency that is appreciating against the AUD. And then there's the fact that most capital goods (for both the US and Australia) are imported form countries whose currencies will be appreciating against the USD and AUD...

To my way of thinking, the Kinesi have made a perfect strategic gambit; at about the time that they want to exert geopolitical leverage in the region to further their strategic regional aims, they play possum by seeming to get shoe-horned into revaluation. The Yanks will feel cock-a-hoop, until they discover how much it's going to hurt them.

A smart person (I think it might have been me) once observed that since China is only half-way through the transformation from agrarian peasant economy to modern industrialised nation. One thing about being only half-way out of the shit is that going back 10% doesn't seem all that hard. But if your rival is all the way out of the shit and has already had a shower and put on his best suit, dragging him back in makes him feel a lot worse than it makes you feel. In fact you might get a sense of schadenfreude at taking the smug prick down a step, which more than compensates you for getting new shit on your dungarees.

So, if (as I suspect) China is playing 'mutually assured depression', it would be almost unnoticeable for about 99% of the population of China. Remember, this is a population that lived through the Great Leap Forward (well... most of them lived, anyhow) without revolt - they will live through a 15% contraction in GDP without even blinking. Not so the USA, where the flabby sweaty flag-magnet-SUV-driving bucket-of-cookie-eating mortgaged-to-120%-of-valuation classes will get smashed by a rapid increase in long rates.

But back to today's action:

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders - rose by 14.50 points (0.62%), finishing at 2349.00 points. Within the index members, there were 15 that rose, and 5 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 94.38 while volume in the losers totalled 13.65m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.32 (1.99%) to $16.42 on volume of 2.84m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.09 (1.63%) to $5.62 on volume of 8.4m shares; and
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.31 (1.59%) to $19.80 on volume of 7.22m shares; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.25 (1.44%) to $17.57 on volume of 3.85m shares; and
  • Amcor (AMC), +$0.08 (1.16%) to $7.00 on volume of 4.27m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.28 (1.27%) to $21.78 on volume of 978,000 shares;
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.25 (1.07%) to $23.08 on volume of 1.96m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.31 (1.03%) to $29.90 on volume of 1.41m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.06 (0.36%) to $16.78 on volume of 4.18m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.02 (0.21%) to $9.60 on volume of 5.12m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 23.20 points (0.96%), finishing at 2428.70 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.004 (19.05%) to $0.025 on volume of 198.17m shares;
  • Resolute Mining (RSG), +$0.075 (7.28%) to $1.105 on volume of 1.02m shares; and
  • Redflex Holdings (RDF), +$0.190 (6.88%) to $2.950 on volume of 137,000 shares; and
  • Corporate Express Australia (CXP), +$0.310 (5.48%) to $5.970 on volume of 184,000 shares; and
  • Amalgamated Holdings (AHD), +$0.240 (4.97%) to $5.070 on volume of 55,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.100 (8.85%) to $1.030 on volume of 1.83m shares;
  • Excel Coal (EXL), -$0.680 (8.34%) to $7.470 on volume of 3.73m shares; and
  • Circadian Technologies (CIR), -$0.050 (3.62%) to $1.330 on volume of 34,000 shares; and
  • Platinum Capital (PMC), -$0.060 (2.9%) to $2.010 on volume of 115,000 shares; and
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), -$0.005 (2.5%) to $0.195 on volume of 429,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4324.221.50.5%740.99m
XTLS&P/ASX 20234914.50.62%108.04m
XFLS&P/ASX 504314.825.70.6%227.51m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003551.321.50.61%367.2m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004371.127.90.64%462.04m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004362.427.70.64%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50420727.90.67%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2428.723.20.96%337.65m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

Advancing Volume94.38m251.79m302.36m507.36256.89699.73
Declining Volume13.65m89.93m105.22m130.6335.86255.99

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was Information Technology which gained another 1.81% to 394.80 points (writing thayt, it feels like its 2000 again - except there's no DVT or SAS). The sector was helped by

  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.130 (3.07%) to $4.370 on volume of 155,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.110 (1.85%) to $6.070 on volume of 3.89m shares; and
  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.020 (1.71%) to $1.190 on volume of 463,000 shares; and
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.040 (1.36%) to $2.980 on volume of 574,000 shares; and
  • MYOB (MYO), +$0.005 (0.46%) to $1.090 on volume of 235,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was Consumer Staples which gained 1.34% to 5734.20 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Foodland Associated (FOA), +$0.640 (2.41%) to $27.250 on volume of 756,000 shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.320 (1.99%) to $16.420 on volume of 2.84m shares; and
  • Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.040 (1.97%) to $2.070 on volume of 3.21m shares; and
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.090 (1.63%) to $5.620 on volume of 8.4m shares; and
  • Burns, Philp & Company (BPC), +$0.010 (1.1%) to $0.920 on volume of 1.4m shares.

The bronze today went to ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.78% to 5283.80 points. The sector was led by

  • Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), +$0.720 (2.94%) to $25.240 on volume of 404,000 shares;
  • Perpetual Trustees Australia (PPT), +$1.760 (2.87%) to $63.000 on volume of 172,000 shares; and
  • Australand Property Group (ALZ), +$0.040 (2.79%) to $1.475 on volume of 1.8m shares; and
  • Lend Lease Corporation (LLC), +$0.320 (2.46%) to $13.320 on volume of 1.05m shares; and
  • Insurance Australia Group (IAG), +$0.130 (2.13%) to $6.240 on volume of 6.41m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was Energy which lost 0.10% to 9715.60 points - it was the only sector that suffered a decline. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.310 (1.03%) to $29.900 on volume of 1.41m shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), -$0.020 (0.87%) to $2.270 on volume of 1.16m shares;
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), -$0.060 (0.35%) to $16.970 on volume of 940,000 shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.020 (0.27%) to $7.450 on volume of 5.26m shares; and
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), -$0.005 (0.26%) to $1.925 on volume of 1.31m shares.

Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology394.871.81%7.39m
XSJConsumer Staples5734.276.11.34%39.17m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5283.8410.78%75.3m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2296.913.90.61%26.63m
XPJProperty Trusts1797.39.20.51%89.84m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
BHPBHP Billiton19.090.090.47%18.47m
TLSTelstra Corporation5.090.030.59%17.91m
QANQantas Airways3.320.030.91%12.63m
DYLDeep Yellow0.1300%11.53m
AMPAMP Limited6.80.050.74%8.69m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
CRTConsolidated Rutile0.640.069.4%514102
GDMGoldstream Mining0.350.039.38%205808
RSGResolute Mining1.110.087.28%1.02m
RDFRedflex Holdings2.950.196.88%136819

All Ords Percentage Decliners
MSTMetal Storm0.18-0.03-14.63%6.3m
EXLExcel Coal7.47-0.68-8.34%3.73m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503316.2255.840.18%24.51m
JapanNikkei 22511695.05-91.68-0.78%0
SingaporeStraits Times2317.296.150.27%0
Hong KongHang Seng14704.5484.40.58%286.56m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp932.5510.611.15%0