Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

OzRant: Dip, Bounce... Waiting...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Toppy? Or consolidating, waiting for directions from the United States (like our Prime Minister)? Once a market - or a political system - becomes dominated by people whose sole source of inspiration is what some foreigner  (or group of foreigners) tells them to do, the game is pretty much up. Our market detached itself from sound fundamental moorings once it got above about 3500, and nobody bothered reading financials anymore. Or more to the point, people thought that the domestic banks' foray into financial engineering was a good thing so long as it made the bottom line look better... everyone has forgotten the commercial property crisis of the 1980s - think of an amount ten times that number, and that's your residential and 'investment' property debacle-in-waiting.

Still, I've got bigger and more cumbersome things on my plate than the forthcoming balance sheet distress at major banks. I've been  Dotting 'i's, crossing 't's, ensuring that table MRPAS05A is conformable with MRPUS05A, hiding '.inc' files, and so on. The impending revelation of financial mismanagement at the country's major money centre banks shouldn't surprise anybody, anyhow - the entire show is run by self-satisfied old dills who spend all their time at the Club and collecting merry-go-round board membership fees while a bunch of younger cowboys run operations with a view that the depositor's money is only there to pay their bonuses. Homeside, currency 'rogue traders', and soon mortgage massacres. Equitymate? will come to rest in the same part of the financial lexicon as "Pyramid Building Society" and "Victorian Economic Development Corporation".

I'm in the process of turning the auto-generated bits of both the USRant and OzRant into a big chron-job that appears on my screen straight after the close (with holes for prefaratory and other remarks), rather than relying on me to run a stored procedure, extract the table content, and then add text in nVu. It will only save about ten minutes per Rant, but you never know when you might otherwise be five minutes late.

It will also make a neat tool to enable folks to contribute their own stuff (to RantPro) if they want to (quite apart from the fact that there's already a "wiki" system for people to contribute to the 'RantHive' SWOT analyses (they get edited, of course). I dig the idea of people actually publishing their own research rather than jsut sticking comments on a Forum or chatroom. It's always been my view that analysis isn't hard - a diligent enthusiast, given access to the proper tools, will routinely outperform every brokerage analyst on the face of the planet. In fact, that should be the least you aim for, given that since 1999, buying all brokerage SELL calls has yielded higher returns than buying the 'strong buy' calls - thattells you something about 'sweaty palms' at both tops AND bottoms.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 5.80 points (0.13%), finishing at 4343.40 points. The index dropped to 4325.1 (4325-ish) at 10:35 a.m., bounced off 4235 and never looked. it rose to set its intraday high of 4348.30 just afte 3:30 p.m. Sydney time before going into a holding patter for the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was a solid 1.02 billion units, 6.6% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 179 rose while 167 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.8:1, with 331.05million shares traded in gainers while 179.60million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 7.40 points (0.17%), finishing at 4385.40 points. Yet again, 4400 eluded it - it looked like the bar was moved down to 4390.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by a bee's thingy of just 0.60 points (0.03%), finishing at 2349.10 points. Within the index members, there were 10 components that rose, and 9 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 28.4 while volume in the losers totalled 36.55m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Amcor (AMC), +$0.140 (2.02%) to $7.080 on volume of 2.28m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.600 (1.96%) to $31.160 on volume of 2.02m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.340 (1.89%) to $18.310 on volume of 6.7m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), +$0.400 (1.01%) to $40.090 on volume of 580,000 shares; and
  • Alumina (AWC), +$0.030 (0.52%) to $5.790 on volume of 2.43m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.15 (0.89%) to $16.73 on volume of 1.93m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.17 (0.79%) to $21.46 on volume of 1.07m shares; and
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.08 (0.35%) to $22.82 on volume of 1.55m shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.06 (0.31%) to $19.34 on volume of 10.92m shares; and
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), -$0.11 (0.28%) to $38.81 on volume of 3.27m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 6.30 points (0.26%), finishing at 2464.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Multiemedia (MUL), +$0.002 (8.33%) to $0.026 on volume of 93.23m shares;
  • Integrated Group (IWF), +$0.090 (5.96%) to $1.600 on volume of 144,000 shares; and
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.470 (5.83%) to $8.530 on volume of 854,000 shares; and
  • Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.160 (5.11%) to $3.290 on volume of 6.84m shares; and
  • Mincor Resources (MCR), +$0.030 (4.35%) to $0.720 on volume of 1.96m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Silex Systems (SLX), -$0.120 (10.43%) to $1.030 on volume of 554,000 shares;
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), -$0.020 (10.26%) to $0.175 on volume of 291,000 shares; and
  • Ventracor (VCR), -$0.075 (5.24%) to $1.355 on volume of 3.82m shares; and
  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), -$0.015 (4.48%) to $0.320 on volume of 559,000 shares; and
  • SDI (SDI), -$0.035 (4.46%) to $0.750 on volume of 153,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4343.45.80.13%640.28m
XTLS&P/ASX 202349.10.60.03%86.24m
XFLS&P/ASX 504313.43.70.09%211.55m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003560.75.40.15%354.37m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004385.47.40.17%450.04m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004378.77.10.16%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504291.123.10.54%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2464.66.30.26%237.86m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

Advancing Volume28.4m181.51m215.63m331.05151.56589.25
Declining Volume36.55m127.41m159.02m179.647.07296.43

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XPJ Property Trusts which gained 1.73% to 1873.20 points - Multiplex investors are starting to think that the whole Wembley Stadium debacle is (a) over and (b) won't be repeated on the next big job that MXG underbids to win. The sector was helped by

  • Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.160 (5.11%) to $3.290 on volume of 6.84m shares;
  • Thakral Holdings Group (THG), +$0.020 (2.78%) to $0.740 on volume of 237,000 shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), +$0.050 (2.61%) to $1.965 on volume of 2.8m shares;
  • Stockland (SGP), +$0.120 (2.09%) to $5.870 on volume of 4.75m shares; and
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.080 (2.07%) to $3.950 on volume of 10.14m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 1.24% to 9930.40 points - rising oil rpices are helping again. The index is not far (in percentage terms) from the 10,000 mark. The sector leaders were -

  • Santos (STO), +$0.370 (3.45%) to $11.090 on volume of 3.66m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.080 (2.89%) to $2.850 on volume of 893,000 shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.070 (2.85%) to $2.530 on volume of 4.74m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.600 (1.96%) to $31.160 on volume of 2.02m shares; and
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.040 (1.17%) to $3.470 on volume of 5.02m shares.

The bronze today went to XUJ Utilities which gained 0.76% to 4977.70 points. The sector was led by

  • Energy Developments (ENE), +$0.130 (3%) to $4.460 on volume of 775,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.180 (1.27%) to $14.370 on volume of 1.03m shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.110 (1.17%) to $9.550 on volume of 621,000 shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.030 (0.79%) to $3.810 on volume of 103,000 shares; and
  • Envestra (ENV), -$0.000 (0%) to $1.155 on volume of 198,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XHJ Healthcare which lost 0.57% to 5365.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Ventracor (VCR), -$0.075 (5.24%) to $1.355 on volume of 3.82m shares;
  • Chemeq (CMQ), -$0.040 (2.9%) to $1.340 on volume of 471,000 shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), -$0.260 (2.58%) to $9.820 on volume of 834,000 shares;
  • Peptech (PTD), -$0.025 (1.59%) to $1.550 on volume of 1.16m shares; and
  • Cochlear (COH), -$0.640 (1.58%) to $39.910 on volume of 194,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.19% to 1794.30 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.060 (1.06%) to $5.610 on volume of 1.84m shares; while
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), was unchanged at $5.050 on volume of 21.28m shares.
From that, you can divine the ratio of Telstra's market cap to the index market cap - i.e., about 82% (1-0.19/1.06). That sounds a bit low, to me.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XPJProperty Trusts1873.231.81.73%110.26m
XIJInformation Technology416.42.40.58%6.26m
XSJConsumer Staples5655.7230.41%31.91m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2281.3-2.6-0.11%24.43m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5248.8-6.6-0.13%53.89m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
CUECue Energy Resources0.30.027.14%35.25m
TLSTelstra Corporation5.0500%21.28m
MIGMacquarie Infrastructure Group3.89-0.08-2.02%17.54m
BJTBabcock & Brown Japan Property Trust1.410.021.44%12.9m
GPTGeneral Property Trust3.90.071.83%12.55m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
IWFIntegrated Group1.60.095.96%144477
JBMJubilee Mines8.530.475.83%854467
CBHCBH Resources0.280.025.66%4.26m

All Ords Percentage Decliners
SLXSilex Systems1.03-0.12-10.43%553756
DRADragon Mining0.18-0.02-10.26%290538
GDMGoldstream Mining0.4-0.02-4.82%234870
NALNorwood Abbey0.32-0.02-4.48%559300

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503358.658-14.22-0.42%26.89m
JapanNikkei 22511940.2-6.72-0.06%0
SingaporeStraits Times2374.378.650.37%0
Hong KongHang Seng15125.6146.720.98%299.06m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp941.122.90.31%0