Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, August 29, 2005

OzRant: Down By the Escalator?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Ricky Ponting is such a bogan - why is it that every time a sensible use of the Laws results in a defeat for Australia, they whinge like a pack of Dandenong netballers whose Bundy cans have been nicked? Bodyline - brilliant tactic by Jardine, and the Australians whined until the rules were changed. Just because Wor. Bro. Bradman had his average halved (and because the Australians didn't have a bowler as good as Larwood... if the Australians had had a Lillee in 1929, there would have been no whining).

Roger Harper used to sub at short mid-on... and nobody ever complained.

I suppose the fact that Ponting is about 5-foot-nothing only compounds the problem...

Bloody weather... here was I, looking forward to a gut-wrenching lurch downwards in Oil prices this week - and then the Flying Spaghetti Monster decides to make a point of showing the globe that His Noodly-ness is not pleased with the Bush administration. I'm talking about the impending smack-down being hurled at New Orleans (which should really be spared the brunt if there's any justice).

I've often mused that since a major US city is destined to be wiped out by a nuke, it would be great if it was Las Vegas; a city whose crapulence is almost impossible to comprehend, whose tastelessness makes it an embodiment of pornography. And yet, New Orleans - a place which is as close to 'cultured' as you will find in the United States - is in the cross-hairs. Perhaps His Noodly Majesty plans to spare it at the last minute - who are we mortals to question the wisdom of the Flying Spaghetti Monster?

Major Market Indices

My goodness - isn't the Oz market falling quickly. It's fun to watch all those soi-disant 'gunslingers' - hedgies and others who were diving long at the recent highs - getting shellacked. It's hard to feel sorry for anyone who was getting in deeper over the last month or so - the divergence as the market made its recent highs, stood out like a bulldog's danglies. Check out the chart...

XAO Weekly Chart

Yes... it's a new, groovy, Weekly Index RantChart; sadly, Blogger is not up to snuff when it comes to including little pieces of brilliance, but if you click on the purple link you can get yoruself a version of the chart where you can hover over the chart bars to see a popup of the data. That's called a 'client side image map', I made it, and it's groovy - but Blogger doesn't let it work (which is why today's OzRant is running slightly late). (Note: this week's bar is not yet drawn on the chart above). I've got to do something about the crowded X-axis display...

If you want some idea of where the pullback should wind up, pick a point about a third of the way between the recent high and the May swing low. Any pullback larger than that will constitute a genuine trend change; any pullback that stalls before it gets there is undercooked and just forestalls worse damage later on.

On another note, I see that New Corpse finally pisses off out of the indices in a couple of weeks. How it will uplift my heart to see that hollow log heading off to where it belongs - the United States of America, rated BBB (Bullshit Baffles Brains).

But enough of my pet peeves... some numbers...

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 50.50 points (-1.14%), finishing at 4368.60 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4419.10 (just after the open) and its low was 4363.8 - right at the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was fairly tame, at 880 million units - 18.4% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 271 fell while 107 managed a gain (note t0 self - there are obviously some interim codes... there ought to be about 492 stocks). 

Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 3.4:1, with 372.13million shares traded in losers while 109.70million shares traded in the day's gainers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 55.70 points (-1.25%), finishing at 4396.80 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 32.30 points (-1.36%), finishing at 2342.00 points. Within the index members, there were 2 that rose, and 18 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 10.89 while volume in the losers totalled 101.2m units.

The only winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.260 (0.79%) to $33.350 on volume of 7.76m shares - the CSL of the Energy sector, in my view; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.090 (0.52%) to $17.290 on volume of 3.13m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.57 (2.77%) to $20.03 on volume of 16.59m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), -$1.32 (2.57%) to $50.10 on volume of 2.5m shares; and
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.39 (2.31%) to $16.49 on volume of 7.33m shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.60 (1.9%) to $30.95 on volume of 3.38m shares; and
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.12 (1.79%) to $6.59 on volume of 2.38m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) withstood much of the damage, and only fell by 17.20 points (-0.67%), finishing at 2534.70 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • A.B.C. Learning Centres (ABS), +$0.590 (10.28%) to $6.330 on volume of 3.11m shares;
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.015 (9.09%) to $0.180 on volume of 1.07m shares; and
  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), +$0.005 (5%) to $0.105 on volume of 785,000 shares; and
  • Housewares International (HWI), +$0.060 (3.47%) to $1.790 on volume of 1.77m shares; and
  • Wattyl (WYL), +$0.090 (3.38%) to $2.750 on volume of 658,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Petsec Energy (PSA), -$0.115 (6.87%) to $1.560 on volume of 313,000 shares;
  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), -$0.190 (6.57%) to $2.700 on volume of 3.72m shares; and
  • Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.075 (6.02%) to $1.170 on volume of 302,000 shares; and
  • IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.450 (5.77%) to $7.350 on volume of 119,000 shares; and
  • Agenix (AGX), -$0.020 (5.71%) to $0.330 on volume of 186,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4368.6-50.5-1.14%538.44m
XTLS&P/ASX 202342-32.3-1.36%112.09m
XFLS&P/ASX 504295.7-58.1-1.33%240.66m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003561.6-46.8-1.3%354.93m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004396.8-55.7-1.25%450.87m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004391-55.1-1.24%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504399.3-48.8-1.1%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2534.7-17.2-0.67%150.51m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume10.89m60.24m100.22m109.753.56187.54
Declining Volume101.2m271.37m313.51m372.1381.81583.76

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day - in fact the onyl sector to posta gain - was XEJ Energy which gained 0.55% to 10441.60 points. The sector was helped by the index members that domestic equity managers are still chasing - fools. Currently, the higher an Energy stock's momentum, the more likely it is to be the recipient of institutional money... madness. You shouldn't try to drive a supertanker as if it's a speedboat, but that's what these chuckleheads do all the time. When the oil price turns (and turns savagely) in September-November, the funds that are getting set in WPL, OSH, STO at current prices, are going to be struggling. What were these dickheads doing when oil was at $20? Raising NCP to index weight, that's what.

  • Worleyparsons (WOR), +$0.300 (3.24%) to $9.550 on volume of 397,000 shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.090 (2.89%) to $3.200 on volume of 1.03m shares;
  • Santos (STO), +$0.260 (2.25%) to $11.820 on volume of 4.36m shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.060 (1.69%) to $3.620 on volume of 8.7m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.260 (0.79%) to $33.350 on volume of 7.76m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XPJ Property Trusts , but it actually lost lost -0.04% to 1825.40 points; the next-least-worst sector was XTJ Telecommunications which lost -0.62% to 1683.50 points.

The worst-performed sector today was XMJ Materials which lost 2.09% to 7879.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), -$0.190 (6.57%) to $2.700 on volume of 3.72m shares;
  • Gunns (GNS), -$0.120 (3.67%) to $3.150 on volume of 3.83m shares;
  • Kimberley Diamond Company (KIM), -$0.035 (3.3%) to $1.025 on volume of 734,000 shares;
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), -$0.260 (3.19%) to $7.900 on volume of 1.19m shares; and
  • CSR (CSR), -$0.080 (3.01%) to $2.580 on volume of 1.93m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which lost 1.59% to 5215.70 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • IOOF Holdings (IFL), -$0.450 (5.77%) to $7.350 on volume of 119,000 shares;
  • Bendigo Bank (BEN), -$0.460 (4.16%) to $10.600 on volume of 315,000 shares;
  • Suncorp-Metway (SUN), -$0.750 (3.5%) to $20.700 on volume of 5.09m shares;
  • Insurance Australia Group (IAG), -$0.170 (3.06%) to $5.380 on volume of 12.47m shares; and
  • Bank Of Queensland (BOQ), -$0.360 (3%) to $11.640 on volume of 172,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XPJProperty Trusts1825.4-0.7-0.04%61.42m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2298.8-15.4-0.67%35.3m
XSJConsumer Staples5707.7-65.9-1.14%25.71m
XIJInformation Technology426.2-5.7-1.32%5.03m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5215.7-84.3-1.59%69.74m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
DYLDeep Yellow0.098-0.007-6.67%29.97m
TLSTelstra Corporation4.7-0.03-0.63%28.06m
BHPBHP Billiton20.03-0.57-2.77%16.59m
ADYAdmiralty Resources.0.1400%13.22m
MIGMacquarie Infrastructure Group3.89-0.06-1.52%13.1m
QANQantas Airways3.22-0.05-1.53%13.08m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
OMIOccupational & Medical Innovations0.950.1518.75%86096
ABSA.B.C. Learning Centres6.330.5910.28%3.11m
LYCLynas Corporation0.180.029.09%1.07m
OECOrbital Corporation0.110.015%784513
All Ords Percentage Decliners
IASInternational All Sports0.3-0.05-13.04%557315
BTABiota Holdings0.75-0.11-12.35%5.15m
FANFantastic Holdings3.61-0.34-8.61%42749
SPLStarpharma Holdings0.45-0.04-8.16%183500
PSAPetsec Energy1.56-0.12-6.87%313011

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503329.262-3.7-0.11%32.41m
JapanNikkei 22512309.83-129.65-1.04%0
SingaporeStraits Times2265.11-21.44-0.94%0
Hong KongHang Seng14798.93-183.96-1.23%175.19m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp910.9-7.48-0.81%0