Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

OzRant: Ominous, N'Est-Ce Pas?

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Those who read these Rants frequently enough, will have seen me blather on about how sometimes an idea springs into my soccer-ball sized skull, fully-formed; the resultant material gushes onto the page with an ease that could be called 'inspired'.  I know when I've had one of those moments when I hit the spell-checker, because invariably those posts have none of the usual Rantisms ('teh', 'jsut', 'becasue') that we all know and love.

Oddly enough, the thing I wrote on Sunday night about WPL didn't fall into that category. It felt OK writing it, but it was full of cripplingly-awful spelling. So rather than give credit to the Muses or the Flying Spaghetti Monster, I'm going to claim it as simply good solid analysis using a decent and well-tried set of tools.

Also, it's early days yet: what may happen is that WPL just treads water for God-knows how long. That would be excellent for those writing covered OLOOM calls, but awful for those buying OLOOM puts. My take on it, is that WPL has run too far for the next move to be sideways and so the call-writers will be happy but the put-buyers will be much much happier. Its behaviour today was what I expected to happen yesterday - but even yesterday's performance was pretty lame-assed.

On a side-note, there is a problem with the primary price database that the charts use; if it was simply a matter of deleting it and rebuilding it; it would only amount to an hour's work and I already would have done it. However the problem seems less tractable than that; the techies have been informed and no doubt will fix it (or drop the table for me and give me the green light to rebuild it). 

Either way, it will be fixed by morning. Until then the Weekly RantCharts - for both Indices and Stocks - are still working fine, as are the Daily Index Charts and the Commodity, Sentiment and Spread/Contango RantCharts. I've stuck in some labels to make the silly things a bit less bewildering, too.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - grabbed back most of yesterday's decline, adding 38.80 points (0.89%), finishing at 4407.40 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4409.00 after the first half-hour having opened at its low (4368.6). the fact that the index rocketed straight to 4400 and then sat there like a stuffed pigeon, indicates that the entire move was a dud.

Total volume traded on the ASX was feeble, too - 770 million units, 28.9% below its 10-day average. 

Of the 483 stocks in the index (note to self - I disagree more with that count every day), 233 rose while 122 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 4.2:1, with 270.63million shares traded in gainers while 64.04million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 41.80 points (0.95%), finishing at 4438.60 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 26.10 points (1.11%), finishing at 2368.10 points. Within the index members, there were 19 that rose, and 1 loser - Woodside. Ha ha.

Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 85.9m shares, while volume in the losers totalled 1.81m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.680 (4.12%) to $17.170 on volume of 3.41m shares;
  • AMP Limited (AMP), +$0.200 (2.77%) to $7.420 on volume of 7.22m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.440 (2.2%) to $20.470 on volume of 14.86m shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.120 (2.19%) to $5.590 on volume of 10.47m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.150 (1.55%) to $9.830 on volume of 2.5m shares.

The only loser in the big-guns:

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.46 (1.38%) to $32.89 on volume of 1.81m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 18.20 points (0.72%), finishing at 2552.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.035 (10.77%) to $0.360 on volume of 1.22m shares;
  • Antares Energy (AZZ), +$0.060 (9.68%) to $0.680 on volume of 2.77m shares; and
  • Cabcharge Australia (CAB), +$0.470 (9.44%) to $5.450 on volume of 391,000 shares; and
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), +$0.010 (5.56%) to $0.190 on volume of 964,000 shares; and
  • Integrated Group (IWF), +$0.090 (4.86%) to $1.940 on volume of 180,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Resolute Mining (RSG), -$0.200 (17.39%) to $0.950 on volume of 1.42m shares;
  • Keycorp (KYC), -$0.320 (16.33%) to $1.640 on volume of 117,000 shares; and
  • Housewares International (HWI), -$0.160 (8.94%) to $1.630 on volume of 537,000 shares; and
  • SDI (SDI), -$0.060 (6.19%) to $0.910 on volume of 350,000 shares; and
  • Kresta Holdings (KRS), -$0.015 (5.88%) to $0.240 on volume of 428,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4407.438.80.89%442.22m
XTLS&P/ASX 202368.126.11.11%87.72m
XFLS&P/ASX 504337.942.20.98%190.96m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003595.934.30.96%284.96m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004438.641.80.95%355.59m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004432.441.40.94%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504437.538.20.87%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2552.918.20.72%127.57m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume85.9m204.15m243.68m270.6365.94495.02
Declining Volume1.81m36.02m49.01m64.0420.64168.53

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XIJ Information Technology which gained 1.83% to 434.00 points. The sector was helped by

  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.040 (3.42%) to $1.210 on volume of 205,000 shares;
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.005 (2.38%) to $0.215 on volume of 1.02m shares;
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.070 (1.89%) to $3.780 on volume of 1.66m shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), +$0.020 (1.85%) to $1.100 on volume of 196,000 shares; and
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.120 (1.82%) to $6.730 on volume of 1.53m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XMJ Materials which gained 1.35% to 7985.80 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), +$0.110 (4.07%) to $2.810 on volume of 3.77m shares;
  • Sims Group (SMS), +$0.470 (2.78%) to $17.400 on volume of 473,000 shares;
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.110 (2.75%) to $4.110 on volume of 117,000 shares;
  • CSR (CSR), +$0.070 (2.71%) to $2.650 on volume of 1.24m shares; and
  • James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX), +$0.220 (2.7%) to $8.370 on volume of 779,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XSJ Consumer Staples which gained 1.28% to 5780.90 points. The sector was led by

  • Mcguigan Simeon Wines (MGW), +$0.120 (2.86%) to $4.310 on volume of 286,000 shares;
  • Foster's Group (FGL), +$0.120 (2.19%) to $5.590 on volume of 10.47m shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.150 (1.55%) to $9.830 on volume of 2.5m shares;
  • AWB (AWB), +$0.070 (1.43%) to $4.970 on volume of 742,000 shares; and
  • Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL), +$0.100 (1.18%) to $8.540 on volume of 961,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today - the only sector that lost ground - was XEJ Energy which lost 1.08% to 10328.60 points. I mentioned yesterday (or this morning - I forget) that this sector would get tennelled when hot money sniffed the wind and saw oil (and the rest of the energy complex) heading lower. That hasn't even started yet...

Today the sector was dragged lower by

  • Santos (STO), -$0.320 (2.71%) to $11.500 on volume of 2.79m shares;
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.070 (2.19%) to $3.130 on volume of 957,000 shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), -$0.040 (1.98%) to $1.980 on volume of 604,000 shares;
  • Origin Energy (ORG), -$0.110 (1.49%) to $7.250 on volume of 3.17m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.460 (1.38%) to $32.890 on volume of 1.81m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology4347.81.83%5.21m
XSJConsumer Staples5780.973.21.28%22.85m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2325.426.61.16%37.41m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5272.256.51.08%61.8m
XPJProperty Trusts1840.214.80.81%42.46m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
RSPResource Pacific Holdings1.120.021.82%23.43m
TLSTelstra Corporation4.710.010.21%22.17m
BHPBHP Billiton20.470.442.2%14.86m
ADYAdmiralty Resources.0.150.0211.11%13.9m
IAGInsurance Australia Group5.460.081.49%12.46m
FGLFoster's Group5.590.122.19%10.47m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
NALNorwood Abbey0.360.0410.77%1.22m
AZZAntares Energy0.680.069.68%2.77m
CABCabcharge Australia5.450.479.44%390602
MSTMetal Storm0.260.026.12%2.58m
LYCLynas Corporation0.190.015.56%963500
All Ords Percentage Decliners
RSGResolute Mining0.95-0.2-17.39%1.42m
HWIHousewares International1.63-0.16-8.94%537176
WFLWillmott Forests2.01-0.14-6.51%83440

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503351.61922.360.67%19.16m
JapanNikkei 22512453.14143.311.16%0
SingaporeStraits Times2270.49-1.51-0.07%0
Hong KongHang Seng14873.1136.140.24%101.27m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp912.70.850.09%0