Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, August 01, 2005

OzRant: Up One Side, Down the Other...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

For those who are already RantForum subscribers, the Subscribe page for RantPro now enables you to use your RantForum login and password to enable the RantForum discount subscription immediately. By tonight I will have an automatic checking mechanism in place to determine whether the 50 non-Forumite-subscriber cutoff has been hit, which will then adjust the subscription price upwards for non-RantForumites. If you go to the subscriber page now, you will see it defaults to the $150 subscription fee... more than 50 discounted non-Forumite subscriptions get through before I finish the checking mechanism, that's too bad (for me, not for the subscribers).

I am deliberately not using any automated mechanisms to add users to the subscriber database: as such it will take a session or two before new subscriber usernames and passwords are sent out - and of course subscription terms only start from when the RantPro subscription login and password are first used to view 'restricted' content.

So what is this all about, then - this RantPro thing?

As you're no doubt aware, there is plenty of 'actionable' content in the USRant for those who care to read it - I'm always banging on about impending moves in such-and-such an option or this-and-so a commodity or this-or-the-other index, and (without giving advice of course) tracking these 'positions' until such time as they do something interesting.

Well, think of RantPro as the same sort of thing, but for Australian stocks and indices. The US Commodities stuff is  there too, of course, in vastly more depth than is presented in this little blog - but it's mostly there for my own amusement.

The sorts of things you will find under the fundamental analysis rubric are numerous - the ones that spring to mind immediately are

  • Valuation tools (dividend discount, free cash flow and MIGR tools);
  • Sensitivity of Valuation Outputs to Key Inputs;
  • Management analysis (return on retained earnings, ROI, ROFE, ROA);
  • Segmental analysis (by geographic and industry segment) for ASX300 plus subscriber choices;
  • Key dependencies; and
  • the ability to 'screen' for as many variables as you like.
This last tool - "show me all stocks with a PE<15, a yield > 4%, falling net debt to equity, rising RoA, with a share price below its 200 day moving average, and a financial controller who wears yellow ties" - is the sort of 'list function' that I usually shy away from, but it's there. OK... maybe not the bit about the financial controller's taste in neckwear, but the rest is there.

There is, of course, a detailed summary of each stock's fundamental metrics relative to other stocks in its sector. For GICS sector index members, the comparison is to the other stocks in the GICS index - for those too small to be in the ASX200, the comparison is to other stocks in the same industry sector.

On the Technical side of things, there is a well-structured charting facility (end of day only, at this stage - the ripoffs of data retransmission charges almost prohibit live data), as well as highly detailed volatility analysis, e-mail TechTrigger alerts, and a raft of other stuff that I would expect - and a decent end-of-day technical summary. Since volatility analysis is one of my favourite things, for those who have nothing better to do there is a daily volatility summary that will make your eyes bleed.

Sentiment? Breadth analysis (advance-decline and A/D volume) for every GICS sector, every industry sector, and all the ASX "headline" indice.

There's also a nifty little set of tools to filter news - of particular interest should be the SPP Spotter. SPPs (Share Purchase Plans) are a brilliant way to get hold of discounted share allocations - and if you play them sensibly they are very low-risk. Recently the return on a standard SPP allocation has been averaging 15% - usually the holding period is 3-4 weeks. There's a comprehensive guide on how they work which you can take along with you to your licensed financial advisor when you discuss things with him. Or her.... yes, of course... "or her". Anyway, as I was saying, there';s a good guide, and every day the Rant NewsMachine scans the headlines and sends out an e-mail when a company announces an SPP or a 'precursor' such as a placement or some other capital raising.

In response to questions regarding which stocks these things apply to: the answer is "all of them". Where there is more demand for good analysis (the ASX300, roughly) the analytical content is slightly greater - including segmental data, for instance - but the inputs required for the valuation models are in the database for 1130 stocks.

New full-year subscribers get to nominate 5 stocks for more detailed inclusion in the database (i.e., going beyond what is required for the Valuation Tools) - the data entry is almost entirely automated, so adding 3 years' worth of Financial Report data for a stock takes less than 5 minutes... the rest of the 20 minute time budget is checking the table results.

Free trial? I hear you ask. No dice. A trial subscription is absolute peanuts.

Today, the broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 9.10 points (-0.21%), finishing at 4337.60 points. After dipping after the open (to a low of 4333.2 after 10 minutes of trade) the All Ords managed a bounce of nearly 20 points, that played out as slowly as a slug on Valium. It took almost four hours to traverse the piddling 17.9 points from that low to the index's intraday high at 4351.10 (4350-ish), posted just before 2 p.m. Sydney time.

After all that effort, the slide the last two hours must have been quite deflating for the bulls. You will recall what I've been saying recently about 'slipperiness' in one direction or the other? Well, today the slipperiness was all downwards, with the upward movements decidedly belaboured.

Total volume traded on the ASX was a pathetic 670 million units, 40.8% below its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the All Ords, 198 fell while 160 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.1:1, which gave the lie to the headline number; 144.56million shares traded in gainers while 130.90 million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 10.80 points (-0.25%), finishing at 4378.00 points. Yet again, the 4400 eluded the index.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 7.40 points (-0.31%), finishing at 2348.50 points. Within the index members, there were only 3 that rose (can you spell "Resources"?), and 17 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 11.84 while volume in the losers totalled 32.22m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.310 (1.02%) to $30.560 on volume of 874,000 shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$0.180 (0.37%) to $49.300 on volume of 1.19m shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.040 (0.21%) to $19.400 on volume of 9.77m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.22 (1.34%) to $16.18 on volume of 1.46m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.07 (1%) to $6.94 on volume of 1.42m shares; and
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.05 (0.92%) to $5.41 on volume of 3.32m shares; and
  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.04 (0.69%) to $5.76 on volume of 1.04m shares; and
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), -$0.14 (0.65%) to $21.32 on volume of 2.22m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 1.70 points (-0.07%), finishing at 2458.30 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.160 (7.92%) to $2.180 on volume of 4.06m shares;
  • Macmahon Holdings (MAH), +$0.030 (6.82%) to $0.470 on volume of 1.54m shares; and
  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), +$0.030 (6.67%) to $0.480 on volume of 1.46m shares; and
  • Virotec International (VTI), +$0.055 (6.51%) to $0.900 on volume of 373,000 shares; and
  • Progen Industries (PGL), +$0.190 (6.44%) to $3.140 on volume of 121,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • SDI (SDI), -$0.055 (6.55%) to $0.785 on volume of 402,000 shares;
  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), -$0.015 (4.29%) to $0.335 on volume of 135,000 shares; and
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (4%) to $0.024 on volume of 28.6m shares; and
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.005 (3.85%) to $0.125 on volume of 41,000 shares; and
  • Oamps (OMP), -$0.110 (3.81%) to $2.780 on volume of 201,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4337.6-9.1-0.21%366.45m
XTLS&P/ASX 202348.5-7.4-0.31%44.06m
XFLS&P/ASX 504309.7-12.4-0.29%97.75m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003555.3-9-0.25%182.27m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004378-10.8-0.25%248.35m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004371.6-10.4-0.24%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504268-2.9-0.07%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2458.3-1.7-0.07%136.22m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth

Advancing Volume11.84m87.62m108.02m144.5644.94304.23
Declining Volume32.22m69.71m86.98m130.955.3271.46

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XEJ Energy which gained 0.81% to 9808.60 points. The sector was helped by

  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.160 (7.92%) to $2.180 on volume of 4.06m shares;
  • Arc Energy (ARQ), +$0.065 (3.41%) to $1.970 on volume of 1.02m shares;
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.080 (3.39%) to $2.440 on volume of 660,000 shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.070 (2.08%) to $3.430 on volume of 5.2m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.310 (1.02%) to $30.560 on volume of 874,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XPJ Property Trusts which gained 0.13% to 1841.40 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Multiplex Group (MXG), +$0.090 (2.96%) to $3.130 on volume of 3.98m shares;
  • Mirvac Group (MGR), +$0.060 (1.57%) to $3.870 on volume of 2.86m shares;
  • CFS Gandel Retail Trust (GAN), +$0.015 (0.87%) to $1.735 on volume of 1.04m shares;
  • Macquarie Ddr Trust (MDT), +$0.010 (0.83%) to $1.215 on volume of 538,000 shares; and
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), +$0.010 (0.77%) to $1.315 on volume of 6.44m shares.

The bronze today went to XMJ Materials which just snuck through - gaining 0.04% to 7783.40 points. The sector was led by

  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), +$0.150 (4.89%) to $3.220 on volume of 2.15m shares;
  • Croesus Mining (CRS), +$0.015 (4.17%) to $0.375 on volume of 1.95m shares;
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.150 (3.75%) to $4.150 on volume of 81,000 shares;
  • Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.045 (3.45%) to $1.350 on volume of 15.21m shares; and
  • Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.060 (1.87%) to $3.270 on volume of 2.68m shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XSJ Consumer Staples which lost 0.81% to 5632.70 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Ridley Corporation (RIC), -$0.040 (2.78%) to $1.400 on volume of 321,000 shares;
  • AWB (AWB), -$0.090 (1.85%) to $4.770 on volume of 373,000 shares;
  • Foodland Associated (FOA), -$0.380 (1.39%) to $26.940 on volume of 490,000 shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), -$0.220 (1.34%) to $16.180 on volume of 1.46m shares; and
  • Burns, Philp & Company (BPC), -$0.010 (1.09%) to $0.905 on volume of 1.15m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XUJ Utilities which lost 0.65% to 4940.10 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.050 (1.87%) to $2.630 on volume of 250,000 shares;
  • Envestra (ENV), -$0.015 (1.28%) to $1.155 on volume of 266,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.130 (0.91%) to $14.190 on volume of 681,000 shares;
  • Alinta (ALN), -$0.050 (0.53%) to $9.440 on volume of 522,000 shares; and
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), -$0.010 (0.26%) to $3.780 on volume of 79,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XPJProperty Trusts1841.42.40.13%53.28m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5255.4-21.3-0.4%26.78m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2283.9-11.8-0.51%11.62m
XIJInformation Technology414-2.5-0.6%6.72m
XSJConsumer Staples5632.7-46.2-0.81%23.98m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
LHGLihir Gold1.350.053.45%15.21m
CUECue Energy Resources0.28-0.01-3.45%10.58m
BHPBHP Billiton19.40.040.21%9.77m
AZRAztec Resources0.16-0.01-5.88%8.52m
DYLDeep Yellow0.12-0.01-4.17%7.81m
TLSTelstra Corporation5.05-0.02-0.39%7.28m

All Ords Percentage Gainers
AWEAustralian Worldwide Exploration2.180.167.92%4.06m
MAHMacmahon Holdings0.470.036.82%1.54m
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.480.036.67%1.46m
VTIVirotec International0.90.066.51%373207

All Ords Percentage Decliners
DOMDominion Mining0.31-0.03-8.82%180114
AJLAJ Lucas Group1.13-0.1-8.13%141552
SEDSedimentary Holdings0.19-0.02-7.5%819000
GDMGoldstream Mining0.42-0.03-5.68%124600

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503372.87813.60.4%17.06m
JapanNikkei 22511946.9247.320.4%0
SingaporeStraits Times2358.986.420.27%0
Hong KongHang Seng14939.7358.750.39%169.44m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp936.28-1.11-0.12%0