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Well, let's go through the "I told you so" checklist. Hurricane Rita was sub-100mph by the time she hit land... that's one tick. Oil infrastructure in the region was unscathed... that's two ticks. Crude oil opened this morning and fell below $62.75 briefly before bouncing back to above $63. The neckline for the "head and shoulders" I predicted more than a week ago, is now $62.33; two successive closes below that level points to a near-certain decline to $57-ish.
As I said all last week, all the Chicken Little drivel being printed last week was a complete misdirection. It was almost as big a farce as anything Ariel Sharon says about negotiations regarding a Palestinian state - except of course that Hurricane Rita didn't finish off by firing US-made missiles into schools.
However in our little market, things are getting out of hand; the lunatics are firmly in charge of the asylum, and what is happening currently is a fool's errand. Markets can defy a lack of fundamental investment merit for a while, and can ignore a technical overbought condition for a while, too. However eventually the Piper decides he's sick of waiting to be paid, and sends around the heavies.
Although last week was a great one for selling any overbought levels, today the market made a new high. It's not going much further... I'm retaining a selling bias. Feel free to let me know that you think I'm an idiot for doing so - I will certainly feel free in bragging once the decline is over and the All Ords is 500 points lower.
Major Market Indices
The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - is all twitterpated by the decline in Crude. It's trying to front-run what people clearly believe will be a euphoric Monday-orgasm relief rally in the US post-Rita. I think it's going to be hugely disappointed.
That didn't stop the euphoria today though: the All Ords rose by 51.30 points (1.14%), finishing at 4565.30 points. The index opened at its low (4514) and closed at its high - clearly there is a prevailing mood that, in the words of the old disco hit by Yazz... "The Only Way Is Up".
Yazz was an odd-looking peroxided blonde bird... a perfect example of someone whose decisions were based on a short horizon, to be sure, but hardly a model for an 'investment' paradigm.
Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.09 billion units, 2.4% above its 10-day average. Of the 486 stocks in the index, 235 rose while 136 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of just 1.3:1, with 298.31million shares traded in gainers while 237.20million shares traded in the day's losers. Hardly the stuff of such a tilted headline index move.
The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 56.50 points (1.24%), finishing at 4618.90 points.
The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 35.60 points (1.47%), finishing at 2457.40 points. Within the index members, there were 16 that rose, and only 4 losers. Even Woodside - which is priced for $70 oil when oil is on the way down - rose 2c. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 57.72m shares while volume in the losers totalled 64.36m units.
The major winners in the "big guns" were -
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.990 (3.58%) to $57.550 on volume of 3.36m shares;
- BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.560 (2.63%) to $21.860 on volume of 12.3m shares;
- Wesfarmers (WES), +$1.010 (2.61%) to $39.700 on volume of 1.1m shares;
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.530 (2.28%) to $23.740 on volume of 4.01m shares; and
- St George Bank (SGB), +$0.540 (1.96%) to $28.150 on volume of 1.18m shares.
The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.19 (4.42%) to $4.11 on volume of 33.28m shares;
- AMP Limited (AMP), -$0.10 (1.34%) to $7.36 on volume of 18.77m shares;
- Alumina (AWC), -$0.06 (0.97%) to $6.10 on volume of 5.44m shares; and
- Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.02 (0.35%) to $5.72 on volume of 6.88m shares.
At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 18.90 points (0.71%), finishing at 2664.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -
- FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.240 (5.24%) to $4.820 on volume of 391,000 shares;
- Crane Group (CRG), +$0.480 (4.49%) to $11.180 on volume of 192,000 shares; and
- Kagara Zinc (KZL), +$0.060 (4.17%) to $1.500 on volume of 1.29m shares; and
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.170 (4.05%) to $4.370 on volume of 3.58m shares; and
- Macmahon Holdings (MAH), +$0.020 (3.74%) to $0.555 on volume of 6.31m shares.
The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):
- Croesus Mining (CRS), -$0.020 (5.33%) to $0.355 on volume of 2.17m shares;
- Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.025 (5.32%) to $0.445 on volume of 747,000 shares; and
- Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (5%) to $0.019 on volume of 57.28m shares; and
- Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.005 (4.55%) to $0.105 on volume of 312,000 shares; and
- Mosaic Oil (MOS), -$0.010 (4.08%) to $0.235 on volume of 2.53m shares.
Index Changes
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAO | All Ordinaries | 4565.3 | 51.3 | 1.14% | 593.49m |
| XTL | S&P/ASX 20 | 2457.4 | 35.6 | 1.47% | 122.09m |
| XFL | S&P/ASX 50 | 4511.2 | 56 | 1.26% | 248.52m |
| XTO | S&P/ASX 100 | 3741.2 | 46.8 | 1.27% | 366.68m |
| XJO | S&P/ASX 200 | 4618.9 | 56.5 | 1.24% | 451.81m |
| XKO | S&P/ASX 300 | 4612.8 | 55.5 | 1.22% | 0 |
| XMD | S&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50 | 4629.4 | 61.1 | 1.34% | 0 |
| XSO | S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries | 2664.4 | 18.9 | 0.71% | 190.7m |
All Ordinaries Market Internals
Market Breadth
| ASX20 | XTO | XJO | XAO | XSO | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advances | 16 | 72 | 132 | 235 | 92 | 508 |
| Declines | 4 | 24 | 46 | 136 | 57 | 421 |
| Advancing Volume | 57.72m | 210.29m | 258.73m | 298.31 | 77.41 | 625.3 |
| Declining Volume | 64.36m | 137.87m | 156.8m | 237.2 | 89.23 | 361.48 |
S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices
The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 2.08% to 8686.80 points. The sector was helped by
- Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.170 (4.05%) to $4.370 on volume of 3.58m shares;
- Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.990 (3.58%) to $57.550 on volume of 3.36m shares;
- Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.260 (3.49%) to $7.710 on volume of 700,000 shares;
- Rinker Group (RIN), +$0.530 (3.43%) to $16.000 on volume of 3.83m shares; and
- Bluescope Steel (BSL), +$0.300 (3.08%) to $10.050 on volume of 4.41m shares.
Second in the sector leadership stakes was XIJ Information Technology which gained 1.75% to 436.90 points. The sector leaders were -
- Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.050 (3.46%) to $1.495 on volume of 935,000 shares;
- ERG (ERG), +$0.005 (2.94%) to $0.175 on volume of 1.54m shares;
- Computershare (CPU), +$0.170 (2.59%) to $6.740 on volume of 1.48m shares;
- IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.070 (1.62%) to $4.380 on volume of 106,000 shares; and
- MYOB (MYO), +$0.010 (0.94%) to $1.070 on volume of 345,000 shares.
The bronze today went to XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 1.56% to 5548.40 points. The sector was led by
- Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$3.970 (5.67%) to $74.040 on volume of 1.44m shares;
- FKP Property Group (FKP), +$0.240 (5.24%) to $4.820 on volume of 391,000 shares;
- Record Investments (RCD), +$0.160 (2.31%) to $7.100 on volume of 416,000 shares;
- Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.530 (2.28%) to $23.740 on volume of 4.01m shares; and
- Axa Asia Pacific Holdings (AXA), +$0.100 (2.14%) to $4.780 on volume of 2.37m shares.
The worst-performed sector today was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 3.71% to 1505.90 points, caused solely by Telstra going ex-div. Effectively, there were no declining sectors today.
- Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.190 (4.42%) to $4.110 on volume of 33.28m shares after it went ex-dividend 20c; and
- Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.020 (0.36%) to $5.490 on volume of 2.42m shares.
Just in front of last place on the sector table was XUJ Utilities which gained 0.13% to 5273.10 points.
Sector Indices
| Code | GICS Sector | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XMJ | Materials | 8686.8 | 177 | 2.08% | 102.19m |
| XIJ | Information Technology | 436.9 | 7.5 | 1.75% | 5.1m |
| XXJ | ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts | 5548.4 | 85.1 | 1.56% | 72.02m |
| XNJ | Industrials | 5408.3 | 81.3 | 1.53% | 66.76m |
| XFJ | Financials | 5402.2 | 71.8 | 1.35% | 138.51m |
| XHJ | Healthcare | 6102.7 | 75.5 | 1.25% | 9.46m |
| XSJ | Consumer Staples | 5909.7 | 72.4 | 1.24% | 24.82m |
| XEJ | Energy | 10705.6 | 93.3 | 0.88% | 25.05m |
| XDJ | Consumer Discretionary | 2334 | 15.3 | 0.66% | 35.42m |
| XPJ | Property Trusts | 1872.7 | 11.1 | 0.6% | 71.5m |
| XUJ | Utilities | 5273.1 | 6.7 | 0.13% | 3.69m |
| XTJ | Telecommunications | 1505.9 | -58.1 | -3.71% | 35.7m |
All Ordinaries Major Movers
All Ords Volume Leaders
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLS | Telstra Corporation | 4.11 | -0.19 | -4.42% | 33.28m |
| BIL | Brambles Industries | 8.93 | 0.06 | 0.68% | 21.88m |
| LHG | Lihir Gold | 1.81 | -0.01 | -0.55% | 19.5m |
| AMP | AMP Limited | 7.36 | -0.1 | -1.34% | 18.77m |
| BHP | BHP Billiton | 21.86 | 0.56 | 2.63% | 12.3m |
| AGS | Alliance Resources | 0.23 | 0.07 | 45.16% | 12.05m |
All Ords Percentage Gainers
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAS | International All Sports | 0.33 | 0.03 | 8.33% | 496879 |
| LEI | Leighton Holdings | 15 | 0.85 | 6.01% | 1.05m |
| MBL | Macquarie Bank | 74.04 | 3.97 | 5.67% | 1.44m |
| GDM | Goldstream Mining | 0.38 | 0.02 | 5.56% | 145880 |
| UNW | Unwired Group | 0.58 | 0.03 | 5.45% | 608324 |
All Ords Percentage Decliners
| Code | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHG | Intellect Holdings | 0.028 | -0.005 | -15.15% | 1.89m |
| MST | Metal Storm | 0.27 | -0.04 | -11.67% | 2.42m |
| COU | Count Financial | 1.68 | -0.1 | -5.62% | 52815 |
| CRS | Croesus Mining | 0.36 | -0.02 | -5.33% | 2.17m |
| VLL | Village Life Ltd | 0.45 | -0.03 | -5.32% | 747037 |
Elsewhere in the Region...
Regional Indices
| Country | Name | Close | +/- | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | NZSE50 | 3412.567 | 4.78 | 0.14% | 18.17m |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 13392.63 | 233.27 | 1.77% | 0 |
| Korea | KOSPI | 1206.41 | 30.53 | 2.6% | 394408 |
| Singapore | Straits Times | 2307.28 | 14.24 | 0.62% | 0 |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | 15163.81 | 19.84 | 0.13% | 125m |
| Malaysia | KLSE Comp | 925.11 | 3.22 | 0.35% | 0 |
