Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, September 29, 2005

OzRant: It's a Video Game Now...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 42.20 points (0.92%), finishing at 4617.40 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4622.00 (4625-ish) after opening at its low of 4575.2 (4575-ish). We're back to the "Rule of 25" where the major indices just go hunting for each multiple of 25 points - and are restricted almost exclusively to the upside.

The market is in full-blown mindless-euphoria mode; this rally has gone farther than anyone would sensibly expect, (about 80 points farther). The crucial issue from here is - what drives earnings up far enough over the next quarters and year, to bring price into line with value? It makes no sense whatsoever for people to accept a market multiple of 15-20x trailing, year in and year out - at a time when dividend yields are still below bond yields and the domestic yield curve is inverted. Furthermore, if the market tries to retain the sort of multiples its currently running, the inverted yield curve will bite it (the market) on the ass if the economy slows. Look at a chart of the XAO - its last quarter performance looks like a tech stock, circa 2000.

It's not that big a deal really - but I really do feel sorry for anyone who is silly enough to think that there are fundamental underpinnings to the recent fifth-wave blowoff (which should be terminating very shortly, even if it's a 'throwover'). I've still got a shorting bias - by which I mean that the structure places less in the road of selling intraday overbought than it does for buying intraday oversold. What that means is that buys require a CCI divergence, sells require only an overbought %R. (Needless to say, today the arse-bone is reddish from being kicked in the shorts).

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.15 billion units, 2.1% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 206 rose while 153 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 2.6:1, with 394.10million shares traded in gainers while 153.49million shares traded in the day's losers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 44.10 points (0.95%), finishing at 4671.70 points (4675-ish).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 29.90 points (1.21%), finishing at 2502.50 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and 1 losers (Amcor, which only dropped by a signle cent). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 116.53m units while volume in the losers totalled a scant 1.84m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.670 (3.07%) to $22.480 on volume of 19.09m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.750 (3%) to $60.010 on volume of 4.71m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.880 (2.51%) to $35.960 on volume of 2.3m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), +$0.090 (2.23%) to $4.130 on volume of 36.55m shares.

The only percentage loser in the big-guns:

  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.01 (0.15%) to $6.65 on volume of 1.84m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 8.20 points (0.31%), finishing at 2653.80 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.140 (8.95%) to $1.705 on volume of 820,000 shares;
  • Citect Corporation (CTL), +$0.070 (8.05%) to $0.940 on volume of 1.9m shares; and
  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.035 (7.29%) to $0.515 on volume of 1.23m shares; and
  • Perilya (PEM), +$0.045 (5.66%) to $0.840 on volume of 3.87m shares; and
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.150 (5.66%) to $2.800 on volume of 2.27m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.010 (6.67%) to $0.140 on volume of 382,000 shares;
  • Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.100 (4.76%) to $2.000 on volume of 31,000 shares; and
  • Maxitrans Industries (MXI), -$0.035 (4.17%) to $0.805 on volume of 285,000 shares; and
  • AAV (AVV), -$0.050 (4%) to $1.200 on volume of 98,000 shares; and
  • Sunland Group (SDG), -$0.060 (3.67%) to $1.575 on volume of 406,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4617.442.20.92%634.61m
XTLS&P/ASX 202502.529.91.21%122.4m
XFLS&P/ASX 504573.449.21.09%243.56m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003789.2381.01%363m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004671.744.10.95%488.2m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004664.743.80.95%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504661.826.10.56%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2653.88.20.31%184.71m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume116.53m253.14m321.65m394.1109.02605.3
Declining Volume1.84m66.66m110.53m153.4946.18353.74

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XUJ Utilities which gained 3.20% to 5365.20 points. The sector was helped by

  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.610 (5.58%) to $11.550 on volume of 1.1m shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.160 (4.8%) to $3.490 on volume of 516,000 shares;
  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.080 (3.1%) to $2.660 on volume of 1.25m shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.440 (3.02%) to $15.000 on volume of 1.47m shares; and
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.040 (1.44%) to $2.820 on volume of 286,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 2.53% to 11084.30 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Santos (STO), +$0.680 (5.88%) to $12.250 on volume of 4.86m shares;
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.150 (5.66%) to $2.800 on volume of 2.27m shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.100 (4.22%) to $2.470 on volume of 3.79m shares;
  • Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), +$0.070 (3.14%) to $2.300 on volume of 2.66m shares; and
  • Tap Oil (TAP), +$0.080 (2.78%) to $2.960 on volume of 3.23m shares.

The bronze today went to XMJ Materials which gained 2.22% to 8889.90 points. The sector was led by

  • Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.070 (3.83%) to $1.900 on volume of 14.49m shares;
  • Zinifex (ZFX), +$0.150 (3.37%) to $4.600 on volume of 4.99m shares;
  • Oxiana (OXR), +$0.040 (3.1%) to $1.330 on volume of 12.9m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.670 (3.07%) to $22.480 on volume of 19.09m shares; and
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.750 (3%) to $60.010 on volume of 4.71m shares.

The only sector that posted a loss today was XIJ Information Technology which lost 0.71% to 433.00 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), -$0.040 (0.93%) to $4.240 on volume of 825,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.060 (0.89%) to $6.690 on volume of 579,000 shares;
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.480 on volume of 388,000 shares;
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.000 (0%) to $3.510 on volume of 374,000 shares; and
  • MYOB (MYO), +$0.005 (0.47%) to $1.080 on volume of 2.36m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5638.531.70.57%55.72m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2324.810.80.47%37.25m
XSJConsumer Staples5935.1140.24%49.61m
XPJProperty Trusts1860.51.60.09%79.33m
XIJInformation Technology433-3.1-0.71%7.18m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation4.130.092.23%36.55m
SGTSingapore Telecommunications1.88-0.02-1.06%35.64m
BPCBurns, Philp & Company1.120.054.19%30.78m
BHPBHP Billiton22.480.673.07%19.09m
UCLUnion Resources0.11-0.02-12%16.24m
LHGLihir Gold1.90.073.83%14.49m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
ALKAlkane Exploration0.240.0633.33%6.42m
TIRTitan Resources0.0570.00611.76%3.97m
PSAPetsec Energy1.710.148.95%820412
CTLCitect Corporation0.940.078.05%1.9m
All Ords Percentage Decliners
TKRTriako Resources1.01-0.09-8.18%63124
LYCLynas Corporation0.14-0.01-6.67%381600
SRXSirtex Medical2-0.1-4.76%31221
MXIMaxitrans Industries0.81-0.04-4.17%284545

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503444.726-4.69-0.14%29.11m
JapanNikkei 22513617.24181.331.35%0
SingaporeStraits Times2303.221.380.06%0
Hong KongHang Seng15356.48135.020.89%166.19m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp925.150.650.07%0