Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, September 01, 2005

OzRant: Look - Up In The Sky...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's SUPER-ECONOMY... give me a break

Every now and then, it's possible to convince yourself that there's a hole in the bucket. If you let a little niggle into the back of your mind, it can ramify until you're certain that your little niggle is a problem.

I've been doing that for days now - ever since I noticed that my count for All Ordinaries stocks disagreed with one or two other data providers. For a long time I got an overall count of 483, while (for example) Yahoo had 492. Since I couldn't be arsed downloading all of Yahoo's alleged XAO components, I got hold of S&P's list today and - lo and behold... 486.

And the really stupid thing is, it doesn't matter a damn; it only affects the AD numbers for that index by the maximum of the 'missing' (or surplus) index components - and the maximum damage is done when all the missing or surplus stocks move in the same direction. The stock prices themselves are still there, so it doesn't affet anything else except the AD numbers - but the stock's not 'allocated' to an index (or is allocated, but shouldn't be).

So I've just resolved to ignore Yahoo, and download the S&P index component list every day (no idea how often they update it - I'll soon find out ifthe datestamp on the downloaded file changes). That way, if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong by the same amount as they are - and they're the folks who compile the index.

Still, it just goes to show - if a big smelly hairy brute like me can convince themselves that they've made a cockup because of a miscomparison, it can happen to anybody. Fact is, I ought to have jumped all over the issue the moment it arose - would have taken ten minutes to fix. Instead, it has been on my mind every time I've gone to the bog... for a week. Stupid.

Major Market Indices

Ahhh.... hope.

Sure, the domestic capital expenditure numbers were better than expected - whoop de doo. 

Sure, the Chimpanzee pack that is running the government is imposing IR changes that make the Business Unions (the Chambers of Commercce) grin like deranged Christian Fundamentalsists at a Hillsong meeting. Big deal.

Remember when there were three shows on the TV about houses (renovating them and flipping them at a massive proifit)? Those programs have gone, haven't they...  

When everyone thinks that a particular market is a no-brainer, you should be very very very very careful indeed about committing to the sam side of the market as the Mass-man. After all, if the favourite always won (or even won on average) the bookies would drive worse cars than their punters and the TAB woldn't make any money.

Today was a prime example of how primitive the investor's mind can become: far from being 'forward looking' (the excuse used by academics to explain why they can't outperform an index), the market looks 'sideways at best', as I always say. Today they looked solidly backwards

Still, it will make Tom "How Much Product Can One Scalp Stand" Petrvski's interaction with Sandra "I Swallowed A Sheet of Sandpaper" Sully that much more vomit-inducing as I await tonight's instalment of Stargate... (actually I like Ms Sully).

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 46.60 points (1.06%), finishing at 4460.10 points. The index opened at its low (4413.5) and rose throughout the morning to register its session high of 4460.10 at  1:30 p.m. (it hit that same mark again at the close).

Total volume traded on the ASX was solid at 940 million units, but still 1.8% below its 10-day average. 

Of the 486 (that's now a definitive number) stocks in the index, 241 rose while 119 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 3.2:1, with 394.98million shares traded in gainers while 122.78million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 50.80 points (1.14%), finishing at 4497.60 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 19.10 points (0.80%), finishing at 2392.10 points. Within the index members, there were 15 that rose, and 4 losers (News Corporation (NWSLV)was unchanged at $21.40 on volume of 1.07m shares). Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 83.81m shares, while volume in the losers totalled 41.18m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.480 (4.85%) to $10.370 on volume of 10.69m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.490 (2.96%) to $51.800 on volume of 2.92m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.470 (2.3%) to $20.930 on volume of 14.26m shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.300 (1.52%) to $20.040 on volume of 11.55m shares; and
  • St George Bank (SGB), +$0.340 (1.26%) to $27.370 on volume of 1.03m shares.

The following stocks made up the percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.42 (2.41%) to $17.00 on volume of 6.14m shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), -$0.11 (0.64%) to $16.99 on volume of 3.25m shares; 
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), -$0.12 (0.38%) to $31.19 on volume of 4.84m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.01 (0.21%) to $4.67 on volume of 26.95m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 33.30 points (1.30%), finishing at 2591.40 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), +$0.025 (11.11%) to $0.250 on volume of 38.46m shares;
  • GRD (GRD), +$0.200 (9.66%) to $2.270 on volume of 864,000 shares; and
  • Genetic Technologies (GTG), +$0.040 (9.09%) to $0.480 on volume of 1.02m shares; and
  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.025 (6.76%) to $0.395 on volume of 4.68m shares; and
  • Silex Systems (SLX), +$0.070 (6.36%) to $1.170 on volume of 163,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Village Life Ltd (VLL), -$0.020 (5%) to $0.380 on volume of 511,000 shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (4.76%) to $0.020 on volume of 13.91m shares; and
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.120 (4.04%) to $2.850 on volume of 3.14m shares; and
  • Highlands Pacific (HIG), -$0.020 (4%) to $0.480 on volume of 827,000 shares; and
  • Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.070 (3.74%) to $1.800 on volume of 17,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4460.146.61.06%585.63m
XTLS&P/ASX 202392.119.10.8%126.07m
XFLS&P/ASX 504394.448.71.12%256.78m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003642.740.21.12%366.17m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004497.650.81.14%447.79m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004490.850.21.13%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504494.5481.08%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2591.433.31.3%191.67m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume83.81m259.22m319.63m394.98123.49608.28
Declining Volume41.18m64.48m82.38m122.7845.34207.72

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 2.49% to 8198.00 points. The sector was helped by

  • Boral (BLD), +$0.420 (5.79%) to $7.680 on volume of 3.53m shares;
  • Rinker Group (RIN), +$0.810 (5.64%) to $15.180 on volume of 7.77m shares;
  • Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.120 (3.95%) to $3.160 on volume of 125,000 shares;
  • Onesteel (OST), +$0.120 (3.75%) to $3.320 on volume of 2.32m shares; and
  • James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX), +$0.300 (3.48%) to $8.920 on volume of 1.33m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XIJ Information Technology which gained 2.18% to 441.50 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Vision Systems (VSL), +$0.050 (4.2%) to $1.240 on volume of 173,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.210 (3.14%) to $6.890 on volume of 1.31m shares;
  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.070 (1.56%) to $4.560 on volume of 223,000 shares;
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), +$0.005 (0.95%) to $0.530 on volume of 418,000 shares; and
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.030 (0.8%) to $3.800 on volume of 808,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XSJ Consumer Staples which gained 1.41% to 5916.00 points as CML declared that some Sarth Effrikan mob could probably run Myer better than they were. Silly reaction in the share price, really - why does anybody think that the Sarth Effrikans are stupid enough to overpay for it? The sector was led by

  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.480 (4.85%) to $10.370 on volume of 10.69m shares;
  • Futuris Corporation (FCL), +$0.070 (3.5%) to $2.070 on volume of 1.5m shares;
  • Burns, Philp & Company (BPC), +$0.030 (3.19%) to $0.970 on volume of 8.11m shares;
  • Ridley Corporation (RIC), +$0.035 (2.5%) to $1.435 on volume of 451,000 shares; and
  • Lion Nathan (LNN), +$0.080 (1%) to $8.120 on volume of 459,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XPJ Property Trusts which lost 0.63% to 1837.00 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.420 (2.41%) to $17.000 on volume of 6.14m shares;
  • DB Rreef Trust (DRT), -$0.010 (0.73%) to $1.355 on volume of 1.99m shares; and
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), -$0.005 (0.39%) to $1.265 on volume of 2.25m shares; and
  • Stockland (SGP), -$0.010 (0.17%) to $5.890 on volume of 4.56m shares; and
  • Multiplex Group (MXGN), -$0.000 (0%) to $5.450 on volume of 567,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.04% to 1682.70 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.010 (0.21%) to $4.670 on volume of 26.95m shares; and
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), +$0.050 (0.89%) to $5.660 on volume of 3.29m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology441.59.42.18%5.52m
XSJConsumer Staples591682.41.41%38.33m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2352.531.31.35%35.66m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5335.348.50.92%73.55m
XPJProperty Trusts1837-11.6-0.63%53.6m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
MOSMosaic Oil0.250.0311.11%38.46m
MIGMacquarie Infrastructure Group40.112.83%27.05m
TLSTelstra Corporation4.67-0.01-0.21%26.95m
BHPBHP Billiton20.930.472.3%14.26m
WBCWestpac Banking Corporation20.040.31.52%11.55m
CMLColes Myer Ltd10.370.484.85%10.69m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
MOSMosaic Oil0.250.0311.11%38.46m
ETWEvans & Tate0.240.029.09%419955
GTGGenetic Technologies0.480.049.09%1.02m
NALNorwood Abbey0.40.036.76%4.68m
All Ords Percentage Decliners
VLLVillage Life Ltd0.38-0.02-5%510942
TAPTap Oil2.85-0.12-4.04%3.14m
HIGHighlands Pacific0.48-0.02-4%826848

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503367.77514.660.44%27.09m
JapanNikkei 22512506.9793.370.75%0
SingaporeStraits Times2287.2711.840.52%0
Hong KongHang Seng15071.33167.781.13%202.79m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp908.53-5.03-0.55%0