Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

OzRant: Odds Still Favour The Short Side...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

I've got no idea what this bloody market thinks it's playing at... I gave explicit instructions that yesterday was to be the top, and stuff me if the indices don't decide to shrug off the weak US overnight and have another crack at a new high (which they managed to achieve).

Still, I ruminated yesterday that the relatively low volume nature of yesterday's move ought to have made folks think reasonably hard... the whole 'never short a dull market' thing.

A correspondent who is a regular SPI trader sent a nice e-mail after yesterday's OzRant, pointing out that I was way too conservative in my suggestion that the RantRecord should 'pocket' a 15-point SPI gain. By his reckoning (having performed this very same feat himself) a SPI short that was taken around 4585 yesterday could have been taken off at 4560 at the close yesterday... in other words the RantRecord should be credited with 25 SPI points, which from memory represents a A$625 gain (28.5%) on margin ($A2200) for the session.

The 4585 entry was justified (by the chap who sent the e-mail, not by me) on the basis that it was the midpoint of the trading range of the SPI was between 10 and 10:30 Sydney time. Sounds fair enough.

That doesn't really matter, as far as I'm concerned. It's all very well to snaffle a handful of SPI points at will, but that's not the point, yesterday was supposed to be the top. It so happens that in order to replicate the MarketRant S&P approach - a point a day - you only need three SPI points a day, but again... not the bloody point. I just get the shits when the market doesn't do what I say it will.

Selling divergences worked despite the apparent market strength: there were two textbook CCI selling divergences that occurred (at 4588 and 4597) which both worked for 10 points each. 

(Sorry folks - the technical-picture stuff for the SPI is not free... it gets sent out in real-time to a very small bunch of folks on a very very very non-advisory basis - and they get the shits and send me whiney e-mails if I even discuss it in the free blog, even with a lag this long. The folks who get the S&P signals in real-time are far more liberal).

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 27.60 points (0.61%), finishing at 4527.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4530.40 and its low was 4499.6; it had the bit between its teeth for most of the session, with a smooth waft upwards throughout the day, notwithstanding the couple of intraday SPI pullbacks.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.13 billion units, 6.9% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 211 rose while 162 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.7:1, with 335.06million shares traded in gainers while 194.82million shares traded in the day's losers ..

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 29.60 points (0.65%), finishing at 4580.90 points. The SPI itself tagged 4600 for about 30 seconds (just after the second sell divergence was registered); it's still running at a 14-point premium to the cash market (which is madness, considering that 'fair value' for a futures index is necessarily lower than the cash).

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 18.10 points (0.75%), finishing at 2437.40 points. Within the index members, there were 14 that rose, and 6 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 68.28 while volume in the losers totalled 51.5m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.570 (1.79%) to $32.440 on volume of 5.57m shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), +$0.120 (1.79%) to $6.840 on volume of 4.6m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.550 (1.7%) to $32.990 on volume of 1.76m shares;
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.220 (1.37%) to $16.290 on volume of 4.44m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.140 (1.37%) to $10.370 on volume of 2.56m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.04 (0.69%) to $5.78 on volume of 5.57m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWS), -$0.15 (0.68%) to $21.96 on volume of 5.72m shares; and
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.24 (0.61%) to $39.20 on volume of 652,000 shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.02 (0.45%) to $4.44 on volume of 30.59m shares; and
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), -$0.09 (0.43%) to $20.75 on volume of 2.44m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - rose by 22.20 points (0.85%), finishing at 2638.90 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Ventracor (VCR), +$0.115 (9.35%) to $1.345 on volume of 4.5m shares;
  • Jubilee Mines (JBM), +$0.610 (8.48%) to $7.800 on volume of 1.5m shares; and
  • Petsec Energy (PSA), +$0.110 (7.77%) to $1.525 on volume of 1.37m shares; and
  • Emperor Mines (EMP), +$0.015 (6.38%) to $0.250 on volume of 16,000 shares; and
  • Globe International (GLB), +$0.020 (6.35%) to $0.335 on volume of 121,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Genetic Technologies (GTG), -$0.030 (7.06%) to $0.395 on volume of 930,000 shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (5.56%) to $0.017 on volume of 6.86m shares; and
  • Sirtex Medical (SRX), -$0.110 (5.47%) to $1.900 on volume of 18,000 shares; and
  • Citect Corporation (CTL), -$0.050 (5.21%) to $0.910 on volume of 96,000 shares; and
  • Antares Energy (AZZ), -$0.030 (4.76%) to $0.600 on volume of 818,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4527.227.60.61%591.39m
XTLS&P/ASX 202437.418.10.75%119.79m
XFLS&P/ASX 504480.628.50.64%224.02m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003710.8230.62%347.79m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004580.929.60.65%437.9m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004574.629.20.64%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 50455523.80.53%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2638.922.20.85%183.19m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume68.28m213.18m276.87m335.06105.32637.98
Declining Volume51.5m112.99m125.11m194.8253.96306.93

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XEJ Energy which gained 1.83% to 10338.30 points - thanks to the huge run-up in Crude overnight. The sector was helped by

  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.110 (4.3%) to $2.670 on volume of 1.19m shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.060 (2.71%) to $2.270 on volume of 4.22m shares;
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.450 (2.46%) to $18.760 on volume of 664,000 shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.070 (1.98%) to $3.610 on volume of 4.75m shares; and
  • Santos (STO), +$0.200 (1.79%) to $11.400 on volume of 2.02m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XIJ Information Technology which gained 1.22% to 438.70 points. The sector leaders were -

  • IRESS Market Technology (IRE), +$0.090 (2.1%) to $4.370 on volume of 194,000 shares;
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.070 (1.97%) to $3.630 on volume of 217,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.100 (1.49%) to $6.820 on volume of 1.24m shares;
  • ERG (ERG), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.185 on volume of 1.54m shares; and
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.000 (0%) to $1.060 on volume of 301,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XXJ ASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts which gained 0.99% to 5476.90 points. The sector was led by

  • Challenger Financial Services Group (CGF), +$0.120 (3.08%) to $4.020 on volume of 1.76m shares;
  • Record Investments (RCD), +$0.180 (2.71%) to $6.810 on volume of 500,000 shares;
  • Macquarie Bank (MBL), +$1.740 (2.6%) to $68.690 on volume of 782,000 shares;
  • Perpetual Trustees Australia (PPT), +$1.470 (2.31%) to $65.030 on volume of 67,000 shares; and
  • Bank Of Queensland (BOQ), +$0.240 (1.96%) to $12.480 on volume of 112,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.53% to 1605.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.050 (0.9%) to $5.500 on volume of 2.97m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.020 (0.45%) to $4.440 on volume of 30.59m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XDJ Consumer Discretionary which lost 0.18% to 2329.60 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Pacific Brands (PBG), -$0.080 (2.78%) to $2.800 on volume of 3.16m shares;
  • Aristocrat Leisure (ALL), -$0.240 (2%) to $11.740 on volume of 2.54m shares;
  • STW Communications Group (SGN), -$0.050 (1.6%) to $3.070 on volume of 543,000 shares;
  • Fairfax Holdings (FXJ), -$0.070 (1.51%) to $4.580 on volume of 973,000 shares; and
  • Southern Cross Broadcasting (Australia) (SBC), -$0.170 (1.16%) to $14.530 on volume of 70,000 shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology438.75.31.22%4.92m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5476.953.60.99%55.07m
XSJConsumer Staples5899.939.10.67%31.22m
XPJProperty Trusts1885.59.80.52%72.07m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2329.6-4.3-0.18%33.44m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation4.44-0.02-0.45%30.59m
LHGLihir Gold1.640.042.5%21.97m
SGTSingapore Telecommunications1.88-0.05-2.59%18.64m
BHPBHP Billiton21.530.140.65%18.59m
HWTHarvey World Travel Group2.0500%13.47m
PSVPerseverance Corporation0.390.012.67%12.12m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
SPLStarpharma Holdings0.530.0715.22%671091
JBMJubilee Mines7.80.618.48%1.5m
PSAPetsec Energy1.530.117.77%1.37m
CGXCentral Asia Gold0.660.057.32%266106
All Ords Percentage Decliners
SMCStrategic Minerals Corporation0.15-0.03-14.71%734000
BTABiota Holdings0.95-0.1-9.52%9.75m
GTGGenetic Technologies0.4-0.03-7.06%930138
IHGIntellect Holdings0.027-0.002-6.9%3.3m
SEDSedimentary Holdings0.24-0.02-5.88%754578

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503407.759-15.84-0.46%24.7m
JapanNikkei 22513148.57189.891.47%0
SingaporeStraits Times2306.668.160.36%0
Hong KongHang Seng15130.92147.720.99%211.23m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp921.83-1.44-0.16%0