Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, September 05, 2005

OzRant: Thanks for Coming, Sol...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

This will be brief - basically just the auto-text: I'm on a roll as far as my Iraklian struggle is concerned, and wil finally be able to declare victory soon. With no USRant required tomorrow morning (because of the Labour Day holiday), my projection of victory tonight still provides me with sixteen hours to get the job done before tomorrow's market open.

So tomorrow morning I might write something for the Pro site about Insurance stocks - although everyone knows my view by now: namely, that they are bookies that rely on pessimistic ignorance on the part of their punters, and can only make money over time by punting on stocks... which is why they are also prone to huge losses and the industry is incredibly cyclical. When to good times (for insurers) occur, and premium colleciton seems like a license to print money, there is a tendency for new players to emerge... and then something bad happens (e.g., Sept 11, or Katrina) and a load of firms go toes up. Then the companies who survive get pricing power in their end-market again.

That said, do not think that the long-run outcome for the survivors is therefore one of excess profits. or that the exante biggest or oldest firms are the ones that survive - that's just silly. They are all pure gamblers, and the odds are - by force of pure logic - stacked against them. But more on that tomorrow...

Oh - and "Manuel" Trujillo has performed as expected (as expected by me, not as expected by the hagiographers who just xeroxed the press release when he was appointed)... an earnings warning with a five-paragraph whine. Great stuff: it will get numbskulls to bail from TLS and ignore T3... precisely what the instos want. Wait until TLS goes ex-div (and the low-IQ half of the register thinks it's fallen another 20c, and sells), then start buying calls or the stock itself.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - fell by 18.70 points (-0.42%), finishing at 4417.20 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4435.90 ten minutes after the open, and its low was 4405.9 (4400-ish), set at 11:30 a.m. Sydney time.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 980 million units, 2.8% above its 10-day average. Of the 483 stocks in the index, 207 fell while 162 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 2.6:1, with 400.79million shares traded in losers while 153.81million shares traded in the day's gainers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 18.20 points (-0.41%), finishing at 4455.40 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - fell by 15.20 points (-0.64%), finishing at 2356.80 points. Within the index members, there were 5 that rose, and 15 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 17.86 while volume in the losers totalled 218.31m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were very 'bank-y' looking -

  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), +$0.230 (1.15%) to $20.180 on volume of 4.53m shares;
  • Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), +$0.210 (0.96%) to $22.140 on volume of 3.31m shares;
  • Westfield Group (WDC), +$0.120 (0.71%) to $17.090 on volume of 4.67m shares;
  • Commonwealth Bank Of Australia (CBA), +$0.130 (0.35%) to $37.480 on volume of 1.85m shares; and
  • National Australia Bank (NAB), +$0.080 (0.26%) to $31.070 on volume of 3.5m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.24 (5.24%) to $4.34 on volume of 153.99m shares after a profit warning and a moan about its long-standing regulatory framework... a framework which has existed since T1:  get over it. (I told you their new Manuel-impersonator was a poltroon when he was appointed... are you with me yet?);
  • Foster's Group (FGL), -$0.14 (2.44%) to $5.60 on volume of 8.21m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.22 (2.18%) to $9.88 on volume of 2.73m shares; and
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), -$0.63 (1.89%) to $32.76 on volume of 1.59m shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), -$0.37 (1.78%) to $20.46 on volume of 29.8m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 3.20 points (-0.12%), finishing at 2576.50 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), +$0.090 (21.95%) to $0.500 on volume of 1.63m shares;
  • Virotec International (VTI), +$0.065 (6.84%) to $1.015 on volume of 700,000 shares; and
  • Housewares International (HWI), +$0.100 (6.41%) to $1.660 on volume of 612,000 shares; and
  • Sydney Gas Ltd (SGL), +$0.020 (4%) to $0.520 on volume of 188,000 shares; and
  • Australian Agricultural Company (AAC), +$0.065 (3.7%) to $1.820 on volume of 237,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Pacifica Group (PBB), -$0.170 (7.46%) to $2.110 on volume of 1.3m shares;
  • ERG (ERG), -$0.015 (7.32%) to $0.190 on volume of 5.66m shares; and
  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.170 (6.25%) to $2.550 on volume of 2.62m shares; and
  • Technology One (TNE), -$0.035 (6.09%) to $0.540 on volume of 522,000 shares; and
  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), -$0.015 (6%) to $0.235 on volume of 13.53m shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4417.2-18.7-0.42%638.11m
XTLS&P/ASX 202356.8-15.2-0.64%236.17m
XFLS&P/ASX 504346.6-22-0.5%322.73m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003608.4-15.6-0.43%417.11m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004455.4-18.2-0.41%515.47m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004450.1-18-0.4%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504489.1-0.8-0.02%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2576.5-3.2-0.12%174.62m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume17.86m73.54m130.96m153.8172.29292.47
Declining Volume218.31m293.32m322m400.7986.34591.29

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XUJ Utilities which gained 1.06% to 5234.20 points. The sector was helped by

  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.300 (2.68%) to $11.480 on volume of 364,000 shares;
  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), +$0.030 (1.13%) to $2.690 on volume of 628,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.150 (1.05%) to $14.470 on volume of 628,000 shares;
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.020 (0.74%) to $2.720 on volume of 65,000 shares; and
  • Pacific Hydro (PHY), -$0.000 (0%) to $5.000 on volume of 0,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XHJ Healthcare which gained 0.55% to 5715.20 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.160 (1.71%) to $9.500 on volume of 225,000 shares;
  • Ramsay Health Care (RHC), +$0.150 (1.64%) to $9.310 on volume of 703,000 shares;
  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.160 (1.49%) to $10.930 on volume of 185,000 shares;
  • DCA Group (DVC), +$0.050 (1.3%) to $3.900 on volume of 3.21m shares; and
  • Sigma Company (SIG), +$0.100 (0.89%) to $11.280 on volume of 374,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XPJ Property Trusts which gained 0.34% to 1853.30 points. The sector was led by

  • Valad Property Group (VPG), +$0.020 (1.42%) to $1.425 on volume of 1.36m shares;
  • Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), +$0.015 (1.19%) to $1.275 on volume of 2.82m shares;
  • Macquarie Countrywide Trust (MCW), +$0.020 (1.04%) to $1.940 on volume of 1.97m shares;
  • Ing Industrial Fund (IIF), +$0.020 (0.9%) to $2.250 on volume of 976,000 shares; and
  • Macquarie Ddr Trust (MDT), +$0.010 (0.86%) to $1.175 on volume of 751,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 4.51% to 1580.90 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.240 (5.24%) to $4.340 on volume of 153.99m shares; and
  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.050 (0.88%) to $5.610 on volume of 5.5m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XEJ Energy which lost 1.80% to 10235.20 points. The sector was pulled down by

  • Tap Oil (TAP), -$0.170 (6.25%) to $2.550 on volume of 2.62m shares;
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), -$0.110 (4.56%) to $2.300 on volume of 1.27m shares;
  • Caltex Australia (CTX), -$0.620 (3.25%) to $18.430 on volume of 418,000 shares;
  • Santos (STO), -$0.370 (3.21%) to $11.150 on volume of 2.38m shares; and
  • Oil Search (OSH), -$0.070 (1.91%) to $3.590 on volume of 3.46m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XPJProperty Trusts1853.36.30.34%54.67m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5309.914.50.27%76.77m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2309.8-10.2-0.44%32.6m
XSJConsumer Staples5771.6-59.8-1.03%30.69m
XIJInformation Technology433.1-7.7-1.75%8.45m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Percentage Gainers
NALNorwood Abbey0.50.0921.95%1.63m
OMIOccupational & Medical Innovations1.050.1516.02%76560
VTIVirotec International1.020.076.84%700050
HWIHousewares International1.660.16.41%611789
All Ords Percentage Decliners
IHGIntellect Holdings0.02-0.003-13.04%2.66m
PBBPacifica Group2.11-0.17-7.46%1.3m
SEDSedimentary Holdings0.21-0.02-6.82%299214
TAPTap Oil2.55-0.17-6.25%2.62m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503373.718-6.19-0.18%20.07m
JapanNikkei 22512634.8834.880.28%0
SingaporeStraits Times2287.42-13.47-0.59%0
Hong KongHang Seng15208.51-13.38-0.09%70.15m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp911.021.840.2%0