Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, September 19, 2005

OzRant: Time Will Tell...

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On Friday I indicated that today would be a swing top. It shouldn't have been hard to interpret the title of Fidays' OzRant, which was " No Typos... Monday Will Be The Top".

The 'No Typos' opening refers to my previous assertions that when the Muse is upon me, the Rant material flows from the keyboard almost alarmingly easily. The Universe sings to me (silently - the only manifestation is that the Rant pretty much writes itself). I swear that at such times I could go and make a cup of tea and come back and there would be another paragraph written... and it would be error-free. Oddly (again, as I've mentioned before), when this happens there is a strange absence of my usual typographical errors. Furthermore, the 'instincts' that are contained in the posts are usually at least as good - in terms of directional accuracy - as my 'joined-up-thinking' . 

This happens often enough to be recognisable - and welcome. Short Bonds at 119 was anotehr example; the Oil shorts at various times have had similar provenance. Regardless of how I knew that today would be a terrific time to start pegging out shorts in the SPI, it worked.

It stood to reason - with it being Monday and with a strong close in the US on Friday - that a smart trader would have permitted the nuffnuffs to crowd the buy side in the early going (the first 20 minutes) before sending out short orders. The actual high of the day was set almost exactly half an hour into the session, with all the dumbasses falling over one another to get long. And the confluence of 'quarters' in the XAO and XJO wwas just too delicious for words... where did the indices stall? Within a hair's breadth of 4575 (XJO) and 4525 (XAO).

Then, with everyone on the same side of the boat, it was time for a good ol' nuffie-stompin'. 

I reckon it's acceptable for me to claim at least 10 SPI points from this call, to go into the RantRecord. That is being very very conservative (in terms of the proportion of the high-to-low move that I'm assuming was captured) .. a numebr more like 15 is more reasonable.

Major Market Indices

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 0.20 points (0.00%), finishing at 4499.60 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4522.10 and its low was 4499.4.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 885 million units, 17.2% below its 10-day average. Of the 486 stocks in the index, 197 fell while 154 managed a gain. Volume was tilted in favour of the losers by a margin of 1.1:1, with 188.12million shares traded in losers while 165.82million shares traded in the day's gainers. All things considered, it wasn't an overwhelmingly negative day, breadth-wise - and the relatively weak volume gives pause for thought... the whole 'don't short a dull market' thing.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - fell by 2.30 points (-0.05%), finishing at 4551.30 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 4.00 points (0.17%), finishing at 2419.30 points. Within the index members, there were 8 that rose, and 12 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 37.78 while volume in the losers totalled 52.93m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.680 (3.12%) to $55.450 on volume of 4.25m shares;
  • News Corporation (NWSLV), +$0.500 (2.46%) to $20.840 on volume of 6.31m shares;
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.400 (1.91%) to $21.390 on volume of 17.02m shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.180 (1.02%) to $17.830 on volume of 1.6m shares; and
  • News Corporation (NWS), +$0.220 (1.01%) to $22.110 on volume of 4.36m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • St George Bank (SGB), -$0.25 (0.9%) to $27.61 on volume of 576,000 shares;
  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC), -$0.14 (0.67%) to $20.61 on volume of 2.08m shares; and
  • Alumina (AWC), -$0.04 (0.66%) to $6.03 on volume of 2.24m shares; and
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), -$0.06 (0.58%) to $10.23 on volume of 1.31m shares; and
  • Westfield Group (WDC), -$0.09 (0.52%) to $17.21 on volume of 2.75m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 5.30 points (-0.20%), finishing at 2616.70 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Perseverance Corporation (PSV), +$0.040 (11.94%) to $0.375 on volume of 12.53m shares;
  • Resolute Mining (RSG), +$0.085 (7.69%) to $1.190 on volume of 598,000 shares; and
  • Portman (PMM), +$0.280 (6.64%) to $4.500 on volume of 187,000 shares; and
  • Highlands Pacific (HIG), +$0.035 (5.83%) to $0.635 on volume of 1.91m shares; and
  • Dragon Mining (DRA), +$0.010 (5.71%) to $0.185 on volume of 7.16m shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Norwood Abbey (NAL), -$0.025 (5.62%) to $0.420 on volume of 203,000 shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (5.26%) to $0.018 on volume of 8.67m shares; and
  • Agenix (AGX), -$0.015 (5%) to $0.285 on volume of 421,000 shares; and
  • Housewares International (HWI), -$0.075 (4.37%) to $1.640 on volume of 83,000 shares; and
  • Silex Systems (SLX), -$0.050 (4.07%) to $1.180 on volume of 167,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4499.60.20%432.49m
XTLS&P/ASX 202419.340.17%90.71m
XFLS&P/ASX 504452.1-0.20%168.06m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003687.8-1.1-0.03%243.61m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004551.3-2.3-0.05%306.29m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004545.4-2-0.04%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504531.2-8-0.18%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2616.7-5.3-0.2%124.21m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume37.78m78.82m99.44m165.8258.17398.15
Declining Volume52.93m126.2m152.56m188.1246.07340.16

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 1.02% to 8497.80 points. The sector was helped by

  • Portman (PMM), +$0.280 (6.64%) to $4.500 on volume of 187,000 shares;
  • Minara Resources (MRE), +$0.060 (3.47%) to $1.790 on volume of 985,000 shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.680 (3.12%) to $55.450 on volume of 4.25m shares;
  • Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.080 (2.29%) to $3.580 on volume of 302,000 shares; and
  • Great Southern Plantations (GTP), +$0.060 (2.08%) to $2.950 on volume of 1.6m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XUJ Utilities which gained 0.39% to 5274.70 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Energy Developments (ENE), +$0.070 (1.49%) to $4.760 on volume of 847,000 shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.030 (0.84%) to $3.610 on volume of 100,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.110 (0.76%) to $14.650 on volume of 750,000 shares;
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.010 (0.37%) to $2.730 on volume of 214,000 shares; and
  • Alinta (ALN), -$0.000 (0%) to $11.250 on volume of 282,000 shares.

There was no bronze today - the third-placed sector was XEJ Energy which lost -0.14% to 10152.50 points.

The worst-performed sector today was XIJ Information Technology which lost 0.98% to 433.40 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), -$0.090 (2.47%) to $3.560 on volume of 110,000 shares;
  • MYOB (MYO), -$0.025 (2.3%) to $1.060 on volume of 1.47m shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), -$0.110 (1.61%) to $6.720 on volume of 553,000 shares;
  • Vision Systems (VSL), -$0.000 (0%) to $1.435 on volume of 670,000 shares; and
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.510 on volume of 228,000 shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.61% to 1614.10 points. For once, the damage in this two-stock non-sector was not due to some stupid brinkmanship from "Manuel" Trujillo... the sector was pulled down more by Telecom NZ.

  • Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), -$0.080 (1.42%) to $5.550 on volume of 1.12m shares; and
  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.020 (0.45%) to $4.460 on volume of 29.2m shares.
Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XSJConsumer Staples5860.8-8.9-0.15%13.88m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5423.3-16.2-0.3%33.26m
XPJProperty Trusts1875.7-6-0.32%27.13m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2333.9-11.5-0.49%29.85m
XIJInformation Technology433.4-4.3-0.98%3.85m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation4.46-0.02-0.45%29.2m
BHPBHP Billiton21.390.41.91%17.02m
SGTSingapore Telecommunications1.93-0.06-3.02%13.87m
LHGLihir Gold1.6-0.03-1.84%13.29m
QANQantas Airways3.3900%12.5m
PSVPerseverance Corporation0.380.0411.94%12.53m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
IHGIntellect Holdings0.0290.00416%8.79m
SEDSedimentary Holdings0.260.0415.91%2.58m
SMCStrategic Minerals Corporation0.170.0213.33%430003
PSVPerseverance Corporation0.380.0411.94%12.53m
BTABiota Holdings1.050.110.53%4.25m
All Ords Percentage Decliners
MSTMetal Storm0.25-0.02-7.41%1.8m
NALNorwood Abbey0.42-0.03-5.62%202801
DOMDominion Mining0.45-0.03-5.26%407572

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503423.596-11.28-0.33%84.53m
JapanNikkei 22512958.68-28.1-0.22%0
SingaporeStraits Times2305.46-0.92-0.04%0
Hong KongHang Seng14983.2-57.82-0.38%268.9m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp923.051.060.11%0