Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Friday, September 23, 2005

WindRant: More on Oil...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

A couple of e-mail correspondents have had a crack at telling me I've no idea about the Gulf Coast oil platform setup, and have credited me with wisecracking in the face of a hurricane that could do a great deal of damage to oil infrastructure.

Well, I've been a big fan of the maps at RigLogix since the hurricane season of 2003; their maps aren't too fancy, but they are up to date and show all the important stuff.

As you will see from the map, Rita's eye will pass over a relatively sparsely-populated region of the Gulf (in terms of the number of fixed rigs in the vicinity); New Orleans was far more important (not because of the rigs, but because of its importance as a transport hub... which leds back to my points made here several times about the geostrategic importance of the Straits of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca).

The land-based infrastructure near the Texas coast is going to be almsot entirely unscathed - DO NOT take your cue from the bloody television.

Notice that at the moment Rita is tipped to make landfall with winds of 120mph or so... that will come down in the next day, too (wind strength estimates are a bit like brokerage earnings estimates... they're a teensy bit LOW the day that the winds actually arrive, but are HIGH in the leadup). I would guess that by the time Rita hits any land-based oil rigs, its windspeeds will be sub-100mph, which is not even a challenge for most rigs.

Whether you believe me or not is up to you, but I will remind you of it mercilessly when that's what happens.

And sure I'm wisecracking - this is funny stuff on so many levels (even the theological). It's basically a massive fitup which the big houses are participating in, in order to lure the masses on to the wrong wide of the market... the 'oil strategists' weer all over the US media in past days talking up the price of crude... which means thattheir TRADERS will be building short positions tonight ,ready to rip the guts out of nuffnuffs on Monday.