Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

OzRant: Don't Be Fooled...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) - rose by 32.60 points (0.74%), finishing at 4422.50 points. The index hit an intraday high of 4425.20 (4425-ish); the interesting thing about the session high was the time of day it was hit... you might imagine, given that the close (in price) was so close to the high, that the session high occurred close (in time) to the close (in time). 

Man... does that sentence ever need parsing. Still, those who can't tell the difference between 'close' (CLOSE, as in "John Howard's tongue is often close to George Bush's sphincter") and 'close' (CLOZE, as in "Civil society as we know it is coming to a close") should just browse on out of here.

Anyhow... the point is this: the session high actually occurred at almost exactly 12:40 p.m. - but was not more than 2 points higher than the index level after 15 minutes of trade (i.e., at 10:15 a.m. Sydney time); the market actually finished below the high of the first half-hour of trade.

Frankly, I am getting extremely skittish about the current state of the markets; sure, the 1200 target I posted last week for the US markets is a near-certainty to be hit today, which is a nice 'get' in terms of a timely bias change (the futures have already been up as high as 1197)... but as I said during the night, things are not 'hanging together' in any sense of the word. I would not be surprised if the Dow was sub 10k before the end of this week (or possibly next week), but until we get a genuine bias change that's just too bad.

But back to the stats for the Oz market for today. The session low for the All Ords was 4389.9 - set at the open, yet again. Notice how the market is back to the habit of scrambling upwards in the first half-hour, then just trying to hang on? That's a signal that there's some big, dumb money at work: index arb, along with nuffnuffs who think that the recent weakness is - in the flatulent CommSec-speak you'll hear on WhoreTV - a 'buying opportunity'. In another couple of hundred points of downside's time, I might venture a 'maybe' on that... but for now it's just too infantile to bother addressing. We are at the end of the bear-market rally, not the beginning of a New Hope.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 1.13 billion units, 3.4% above its 10-day average. Of the 485 stocks in the index, 183 rose while 175 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 1.5:1, with 288.27million shares traded in gainers while 194.16million shares traded in the day's losers.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 34.00 points (0.77%), finishing at 4459.30 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 26.00 points (1.10%), finishing at 2384.90 points. Within the index members, there were 11 that rose, and 6 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 55.18 while volume in the losers totalled 33.68m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were as follows:

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.700 (3.49%) to $20.750 on volume of 19.65m shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.950 (3.49%) to $57.900 on volume of 2.73m shares;
  • QBE Insurance Group (QBE), +$0.550 (3.08%) to $18.400 on volume of 2.01m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.800 (2.53%) to $32.400 on volume of 2.14m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.260 (1.69%) to $15.660 on volume of 2.84m shares.

The following stocks made up the biggest percentage losers in the big-guns:

  • Telstra Corporation (TLS), -$0.050 (1.2%) to $4.130 on volume of 20.6m shares;
  • Wesfarmers (WES), -$0.43 (1.14%) to $37.44 on volume of 628,000 shares;
  • Amcor (AMC), -$0.05 (0.75%) to $6.60 on volume of 3.48m shares;

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) - the only place where underexploited value exists with any regularity - fell by 0.70 points (-0.03%), finishing at 2561.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Globe International (GLB), +$0.030 (8.82%) to $0.370 on volume of 756,000 shares;
  • SDI (SDI), +$0.050 (6.49%) to $0.820 on volume of 102,000 shares; and
  • Citect Corporation (CTL), +$0.050 (4.81%) to $1.090 on volume of 439,000 shares; and
  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.320 (4.76%) to $7.040 on volume of 577,000 shares; and
  • Progen Industries (PGL), +$0.150 (4.7%) to $3.340 on volume of 297,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Mosaic Oil (MOS), -$0.015 (6.98%) to $0.200 on volume of 3.6m shares;
  • Brazin (BRZ), -$0.100 (4.83%) to $1.970 on volume of 75,000 shares; and
  • Orbital Corporation (OEC), -$0.005 (4.55%) to $0.105 on volume of 10,000 shares; and
  • Ventracor (VCR), -$0.050 (4.15%) to $1.155 on volume of 804,000 shares; and
  • GRD (GRD), -$0.110 (4.09%) to $2.580 on volume of 140,000 shares.
Index Changes
XAOAll Ordinaries4422.532.60.74%550.93m
XTLS&P/ASX 202384.9261.1%93.41m
XFLS&P/ASX 504362.339.20.91%200.11m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003615.9300.84%350.79m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004459.3340.77%448.26m
XKOS&P/ASX 300445633.40.76%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504460.719.10.43%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2561.6-0.7-0.03%158.93m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
Advancing Volume55.18m192.48m240.94m288.2789.53626.25
Declining Volume33.68m130m164.46m194.1648.34396.69

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XMJ Materials which gained 2.16% to 8295.70 points. The sector was helped by

  • Oxiana (OXR), +$0.095 (7.45%) to $1.370 on volume of 13.59m shares;
  • Excel Coal (EXL), +$0.320 (4.76%) to $7.040 on volume of 577,000 shares;
  • James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX), +$0.370 (4.71%) to $8.230 on volume of 1.56m shares;
  • Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.160 (4.06%) to $4.100 on volume of 549,000 shares; and
  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.700 (3.49%) to $20.750 on volume of 19.65m shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XEJ Energy which gained 1.79% to 10099.40 points. The sector leaders were -

  • Caltex Australia (CTX), +$0.940 (4.86%) to $20.300 on volume of 591,000 shares;
  • Oil Search (OSH), +$0.110 (3.27%) to $3.470 on volume of 8.11m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.800 (2.53%) to $32.400 on volume of 2.14m shares;
  • Hardman Resources (HDR), +$0.050 (2.43%) to $2.110 on volume of 3.23m shares; and
  • Roc Oil Company (ROC), +$0.030 (1.2%) to $2.530 on volume of 530,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XIJ Information Technology which gained 1.58% to 424.90 points. The sector was led by

  • MYOB (MYO), +$0.035 (3.33%) to $1.085 on volume of 379,000 shares;
  • ERG (ERG), +$0.005 (3.03%) to $0.170 on volume of 302,000 shares;
  • Baycorp Advantage (BCA), +$0.090 (2.62%) to $3.530 on volume of 749,000 shares;
  • Computershare (CPU), +$0.140 (2.2%) to $6.500 on volume of 1.15m shares; and
  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM), -$0.000 (0%) to $0.465 on volume of 416,000 shares.

The worst-performed sector today was XUJ Utilities which lost 0.93% to 5156.60 points. The sector was dragged lower by

  • Alinta (ALN), -$0.180 (1.67%) to $10.600 on volume of 680,000 shares;
  • Energy Developments (ENE), -$0.070 (1.54%) to $4.470 on volume of 83,000 shares;
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), -$0.030 (1.06%) to $2.800 on volume of 191,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), -$0.130 (0.89%) to $14.520 on volume of 1.23m shares; and
  • Diversified Utility And Energy Trusts (DUE), -$0.010 (0.38%) to $2.640 on volume of 1.11m shares.

Just in front of last place on the sector table was XTJ Telecommunications which lost 0.73% to 1516.30 points. The sector was pulled down by Telstra Corporation (TLS) which lost $0.05 (1.2%) to $4.130 on volume of 20.6m shares. the other sector component, Telecom Corporation Of New Zealand (TEL), actualyl managed a gain, +$0.080 (1.45%) to $5.580 on volume of 2.18m shares.

Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XIJInformation Technology424.96.61.58%3.42m
XSJConsumer Staples5680.944.10.78%38.77m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2249.414.80.66%37.01m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5430.634.10.63%49.59m
XPJProperty Trusts1810.7-6.7-0.37%76.17m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
TLSTelstra Corporation4.13-0.05-1.2%20.6m
BHPBHP Billiton20.750.73.49%19.65m
MAPMacquarie Airports3.010.072.38%18.02m
MIGMacquarie Infrastructure Group3.570.082.29%14.73m
TOXTox Free Solutions0.099-0.006-5.71%14.35m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
GLBGlobe International0.370.038.82%756437
DOMDominion Mining0.570.047.55%519820
WBBWide Bay Australia Ltd8.50.56.25%7740
All Ords Percentage Decliners
MOSMosaic Oil0.2-0.02-6.98%3.6m
AJLAJ Lucas Group0.91-0.04-4.21%663718

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
New ZealandNZSE503346.847-11.77-0.35%14.64m
JapanNikkei 22513352.24-48.05-0.36%0
SingaporeStraits Times2273.82-14.72-0.64%0
Hong KongHang Seng14611.6870.330.48%159.85m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp925.821.550.17%0