Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Monday, October 31, 2005

OzRant: Mmmmm... This Will Be Tasty...

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Australian 'investors' responded to Friday's US short squeeze like one of Pavlov's dogs... slavering away the moment Master rang the bell. Although the US market response to the non-indictment of Karl Rove did help to overcome some significant technical hurdles, the US market is not out of the woods by any means - and the Oz market will perform worse than the US (look at a chart of the Asian bourses). The Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow, and markets do not react well to increases in the default return on capital.

But today let's let the cattle have their little stampede; far better to watch and shake the head at the stupidity of it all, than to try and participate on either side. That said, a SPI short is just too tempting - tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. should be perfect. Although the short-term target iwll only be 10 SPI points, it may develop into something more delicious, as today's bulls get a sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs as they become unwitting producers of garmonbozia... the negative psychic energy that comprises the foodstuffs of the Black Lodge.

The broad market - the ASX All Ordinaries (XAO) -  rose by 72.20 points (1.66%), finishing at 4412.70 points. After opening at its low (4340.5) the market screamed upwards in the first half-hour - hitting the mid-4390's before it stopped like a motorcycle hitting an armco barrier. From there the index went nowhere - literally, no more than 5 points in either direction - for almost 5½ hours... until a last-ten-minute push finally got the All Ords above 4400 for the close.

Total volume traded on the ASX was 820 million units, a whopping 22.0% below its 10-day average - so take this little bounce as highly suspicious. Of the 486 stocks in the All Ords index, 273 rose while 91 fell. Volume was tilted in favour of the gainers by a margin of 6.1:1, with 329.08 million shares traded in gainers while 53.58million shares traded in the day's losers. So it was a low-volume, highly-tilted move... sounds like the 'Dumb Money at Work; sign is being hung out.

The Index that forms the cash basis for the SFE's Share Price Index Futures - the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) - rose by 76.70 points (1.75%), finishing at 4459.70 points.

The "heavy hitters" of the Australian market - the ASX 20 Leaders (XTL) - rose by 40.50 points (1.72%), finishing at 2399.70 points. Within the index members, there were 18 that rose, and 1 losers. Total volume in rising issues within the ASX20 amounted to 70.5 while volume in the losers totalled 2.93m units.

The major winners in the "big guns" were -

  • BHP Billiton (BHP), +$0.650 (3.23%) to $20.750 on volume of 13.01m shares;
  • Woodside Petroleum (WPL), +$0.800 (2.6%) to $31.600 on volume of 846,000 shares;
  • Rio Tinto (RIO), +$1.370 (2.49%) to $56.310 on volume of 1.48m shares;
  • Coles Myer Ltd (CML), +$0.210 (2.14%) to $10.030 on volume of 1.98m shares; and
  • Woolworths (WOW), +$0.330 (2.06%) to $16.330 on volume of 2.32m shares.

The only loser in the big-guns:

  • St George Bank (SGB), -$0.300 (1.09%) to $27.240 on volume of 2.93m shares.

At the smaller end of the market's capitalisation scale, the ASX Small Ordinaries Index (XSO) rose by 36.00 points (1.44%), finishing at 2540.60 points. The major winners in the "pop-guns" were -

  • Cellestis (CST), +$0.190 (7.57%) to $2.700 on volume of 123,000 shares;
  • Psivida (PSD), +$0.045 (6%) to $0.795 on volume of 556,000 shares; and
  • Primelife Corporation (PLF), +$0.060 (4.62%) to $1.360 on volume of 482,000 shares; and
  • Repco Corporation (RCL), +$0.110 (4.35%) to $2.640 on volume of 852,000 shares; and
  • A.B.C. Learning Centres (ABS), +$0.250 (4%) to $6.500 on volume of 278,000 shares.

The losingest-little-guys for the session were (in order of decline):

  • Antares Energy (AZZ), -$0.055 (9.4%) to $0.530 on volume of 2.04m shares;
  • Multiemedia (MUL), -$0.001 (6.67%) to $0.014 on volume of 11.13m shares; and
  • Croesus Mining (CRS), -$0.020 (6.15%) to $0.305 on volume of 2.68m shares; and
  • Atlas Group Holdings (AHS), -$0.070 (5.38%) to $1.230 on volume of 196,000 shares; and
  • Lynas Corporation (LYC), -$0.005 (3.85%) to $0.125 on volume of 196,000 shares.
Index Changes
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
XAOAll Ordinaries4412.772.21.66%466.94m
XTLS&P/ASX 202399.740.51.72%73.42m
XFLS&P/ASX 504366.675.31.75%161.78m
XTOS&P/ASX 1003617.262.91.77%279.38m
XJOS&P/ASX 2004459.776.71.75%353.33m
XKOS&P/ASX 3004454.276.21.74%0
XMDS&P/ASX Mid-Cap 504446.281.61.87%0
XSOS&P/ASX Small Ordinaries2540.6361.44%117.88m

All Ordinaries Market Internals

Market Breadth
ASX20XTOXJOXAOXSOMarket
Advances1888160273123595
Declines13139136343
Advancing Volume70.5m214.77m258.25m329.0867.05492.13
Declining Volume2.93m21.65m29.25m53.5826.69185.54

S&P/ASX200 GICS Sector Indices

The top sector for the day was XUJ Utilities which gained 3.70% to 5291.20 points. The sector was helped by

  • Alinta (ALN), +$0.470 (4.56%) to $10.770 on volume of 354,000 shares;
  • Australian Gas Light Company (AGL), +$0.640 (4.41%) to $15.140 on volume of 3.72m shares;
  • Energy Developments (ENE), +$0.110 (2.48%) to $4.550 on volume of 334,000 shares;
  • Australian Pipeline Trust (APA), +$0.070 (1.94%) to $3.670 on volume of 94,000 shares; and
  • Gasnet Australia Group (GAS), +$0.030 (1.1%) to $2.750 on volume of 184,000 shares.

Second in the sector leadership stakes was XMJ Materials which gained 2.70% to 8230.20 points. The sector leaders were -

  • James Hardie Industries N.V. (JHX), +$0.410 (5.07%) to $8.490 on volume of 1.36m shares;
  • Adelaide Brighton (ABC), +$0.080 (3.92%) to $2.120 on volume of 240,000 shares;
  • Lihir Gold (LHG), +$0.065 (3.86%) to $1.750 on volume of 7.1m shares;
  • Paperlinx (PPX), +$0.110 (3.7%) to $3.080 on volume of 4.19m shares; and
  • Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), +$0.140 (3.54%) to $4.100 on volume of 443,000 shares.

The bronze today went to XHJ Healthcare which gained 2.61% to 5817.60 points. The sector was led by

  • Ansell (ANN), +$0.470 (4.68%) to $10.520 on volume of 723,000 shares;
  • Cochlear (COH), +$1.480 (4.05%) to $37.980 on volume of 168,000 shares;
  • Healthscope (HSP), +$0.180 (3.26%) to $5.700 on volume of 1.23m shares;
  • Resmed Inc (RMD), +$0.160 (3.21%) to $5.150 on volume of 621,000 shares; and
  • Sonic Healthcare (SHL), +$0.450 (3.18%) to $14.580 on volume of 1.14m shares.

The worst-performed sector today - XNJ Industrials - actually gained 0.72%: when the worst-performed sector rises by almost 3/4 of a percent, you know you've got some real speculative mania happening.


Sector Indices
CodeGICS SectorClose+/-%Volume
XUJUtilities5291.2188.83.7%5.5m
XMJMaterials8230.2216.22.7%71.17m
XHJHealthcare5817.6147.82.61%12.72m
XEJEnergy9832.6221.42.3%14.14m
XIJInformation Technology432.89.42.22%4.17m
XSJConsumer Staples5834113.61.99%25.26m
XDJConsumer Discretionary2219.537.91.74%25.58m
XPJProperty Trusts1808.126.51.49%64.9m
XFJFinancials5301.470.51.35%119.54m
XXJASX200 Financials ex Property Trusts5469.470.71.31%52m
XTJTelecommunications1535.416.81.11%12.01m
XNJIndustrials4982.135.80.72%46.02m

All Ordinaries Major Movers

All Ords Volume Leaders
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
BBBB Digital0.350.012.99%41.91m
BBWBabcock & Brown Wind Partners1.66-0.02-1.19%22.39m
MOFMacquarie Office Trust1.2500%15.41m
NABNational Australia Bank330.320.98%13.45m
BHPBHP Billiton20.750.653.23%13.01m
TLSTelstra Corporation4.210.030.72%10.7m
All Ords Percentage Gainers
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
CSTCellestis2.70.197.57%123253
PMVPremier Investments4.30.297.23%27000
MNDMonadelphous Group3.820.257%66927
EPTEpitan0.350.026.06%667336
PSDPsivida0.80.056%555842
All Ords Percentage Decliners
CodeNameClose+/-%Volume
AZZAntares Energy0.53-0.06-9.4%2.04m
MSTMetal Storm0.2-0.02-6.98%1.35m
FLTFlight Centre11.5-0.83-6.73%462921
MULMultiemedia0.014-0.001-6.67%11.13m
CRSCroesus Mining0.31-0.02-6.15%2.68m

Elsewhere in the Region...

Regional Indices
CountryNameClose+/-%Volume
New ZealandNZSE503293.15722.410.69%21.35m
JapanNikkei 22513606.5259.961.95%0
KoreaKOSPI1158.1117.391.52%315206
SingaporeStraits Times2223.8931.481.44%0
Hong KongHang Seng14325.67109.840.77%121.71m
MalaysiaKLSE Comp909.783.990.44%0